He simply does not understand or respect the defensive side of the puck. When he *finally* spends money on defense, it's Erik Karlsson, who, while fun to watch and a great player in his own way, wouldn't know the defensive zone if it gave him a wedgie. Of course, in Toronto, not only was the roster top heavy, it was top heavy with forwards. He simply does not seem to consider defensive players to be worth paying or considering as part of the core.
I've had this post bookmarked for a while because it, and particularly the chart at top, remain an amazing insight into just how badly Toronto f***ed up its contract structure under Dubas. Enjoy:
Glad you enjoyed that post. I'll also quote another one of my previous posts, about how badly he handled the negotiation of Matthews' contract:
I think Matthews' agent took Dubas for a ride when his previous contract was signed in 2019. Forget about the dollar value and term - everything about how the contract was negotiated favours Matthews.
From a tax standpoint, it allowed him to structure his affairs in such a way that he'll save millions of dollars in income tax over the course of his career (by potentially enabling him to pay tax on the majority of his income at Arizona rates, which is more than 10% lower than Ontario's top rate).
From a finance standpoint, the contract was frontloaded. Matthews collected 53% of his earnings in the first 13 months of a five year contract. That's stunning. It means Matthews received and could start investing his earnings sooner. Over the course of his career, the impact on his net worth would be substantial.
From a leverage standpoint, Matthews was given a NMC (granted, only for the final year). This is the least of the concerns.
I don't fault Matthews for this. In fact, I've commended him for getting good advice. But you'd think that by offering these huge advantages to Matthews, Dubas would have been able to negotiate a lower AAV.
If I were in Dubas's place, negotiating with Matthews, I would have said something like - "Auston, we think you're one of the best players in the league, and we want you in Toronto long-term. I've spoke to the Board, and we're going to front load your contact, so you'll be getting more than half your money in just over one-fifth of the term. And we'll play ball with you, so that your advisors can put an extra million dollars in your pocket annually, by ensuring you're an Arizona resident for tax purposes. Plus, we'll give you the NMC that you requested. And we'll agree to only a five year term, even though we would have wanted longer.
But we're not willing to make you the 3rd highest player in the league next year. First, I'm already offering you these two substantial advantages that will save you millions of dollars. That has to be taken into account when we determine your salary. Second, you're asking for more money than Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Kane, MacKinnion, Kucherov, etc - but you've never placed in the 20 (let alone the top 10) in scoring. We can't pay for potential, we need results. Third, you're averaging 44 points per 82 games in the playoff. Granted, small sample size, but this city hasn't won a playoff series in almost two decades, and we need to see results in the spring. Fourth, you're an RFA, so you don't have a ton of leverage here if I don't play ball with this."
Instead, Dubas gave Matthews a huge salary, structured the contract in a way that adds millions of dollars of value on top of that, and ignored the leverage he had given Matthews' RFA status. In turn, this raised the salary expectations for Marner and Nylander. Having so much money tied up in three or four forwards (Tavares) hasn't proven to be a winning strategy (for any team) during the salary cap era. I think the Tavares contract was the first step, but Matthews' 2019 contract, in many ways, was even worse. (Matthews' new contract suffers from many of these flaws from the Leafs' perspective - but it would be hard for a new GM to try to negotiate back from what Dubas already agreed to, especially since they no longer have leverage given his impending UFA status).
