When are we going to be honest with ourselves about how bad Kyle Dubas is?

[PaulD]

You guys are making it seem like it's so easy... I mean half the people want a retool/rebuild and the other half want us to go all in until the end of Sid-Geno-Letang. He came in and pulled the trigger for EK, which wasn't a bad move considering the cap dumps we made in that deal, yes the 1st rounder sucks but he did give it one last try. It didn't work and he proceeded to trade Jake last year which I think is the start of the "rebuild". He will move everyone going forward, no more buying IMO as we saw with the Hayes trade that came along with a pick. The real problem he has is FSG and the love affair of Mike Sullivan. If I'm Dubas, I fire him after tonight's loss in Vancouver! If FSG says no, I resign...

Karlsson bad deal.
Graves bad deal.
Jarry bad signing.
Eller, Accarai, Rielly
Sullivan is beyond terrible , but that's on ownership.

Then there are the deals that could have been made that he didnt/couldn't make happen.

Players that have changed teams since Dubas took over Pens
Markstrom
Allen
Tanev
Montour
Larson
Arvedson
Skinner
Ulmark
Debrusk
Hertl
Sergachev
Tiffoli.

Just to name a few.

Dubas is in over his head. Shanny thought he had the Money Ball manager. He was wrong. He let Hunter and Lou walk away from a team on the verge of greatness to turn it over to a Play Station GM . lol
Penguins are going nowhere fast. Bad ownership, bad management , Sid, Malkin, Letang playing for milestones. After that the team will drop off a cliff.

 

[Regal]

That's my point though, Karlsson just cannibalizes Letang in that offense because they both offer the same thing.

Both of them are their best at ES which there’s more than enough minutes for. There would be some overlap but Karlsson-Burns was mostly a problem due to Karlsson’s injuries, not because of cannibalizing each other. They were both fine at ES last year for the money. Graves was the bad addition and the PP was a mess.

 

[Stephen]

Kyle Dubas has been coasting on Theo Epstein vibes since the mid 2010s while building up his NHL programs under the guise of progressive and analytics... which basically is one splashy and ill fitting superstar per tenure followed by little timid nibbles at the roster, going cheap on defense and moneyball cheap in net. Consistently overpays in the trade market, makes mistakes he needs to cover up with draft capital, makes big headed convoluted transactions that look like parlay bets but miss actual hockey intuition, talks about building rosters like he's "betting," talks up a big loyalty game but good luck to you if you don't come from his inner circle and or Soo entourage.

 

[TooManyHumans]

All I can say is that if you think Dubas is what is wrong with the Penguins then you don't watch them.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

I think everyone's honest about this guy now that he's no longer in Toronto. He sucks, he always sucked, and Pittsburgh fans seem far more capable of entertaining reality.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I'm pretty HF as a whole thinks he's bad.

There's like 6 people.who think he's good..

 

[NailsHoglander]

I've always thought that he was a smooth talking politically polished Benning tier hockey brain.

 

[cptjeff]

He simply does not understand or respect the defensive side of the puck. When he *finally* spends money on defense, it's Erik Karlsson, who, while fun to watch and a great player in his own way, wouldn't know the defensive zone if it gave him a wedgie. Of course, in Toronto, not only was the roster top heavy, it was top heavy with forwards. He simply does not seem to consider defensive players to be worth paying or considering as part of the core.

I've had this post bookmarked for a while because it, and particularly the chart at top, remain an amazing insight into just how badly Toronto f***ed up its contract structure under Dubas. Enjoy:

Here's a visual summary of the top five contracts per team, by position, from 2022*:

View attachment 578380

Among its top five contracts**, Toronto has allocated just over $40.5M to (four) forwards, and $7.5M to (one) defenseman. The Leafs have, by a wide margin, the most dollars invested in their top forwards. Toronto is 26% ahead of the next closest team (the Capitals). Washington, although they have the 2nd highest allocation, is closer to 17th place, than they are to the Leafs. This shows how unconventional the Leafs' cap management has been.

There are eight teams in the NHL (including Toronto) that have invested $8.0M or less in defensemen and goalies (among their top five contracts). Those teams have won a grand total of 5 playoff series over the past four years. Allocating such a small amount to goalies/defensemen hasn't proven to be a winning formula in recent years.

The Leafs are one of 14 teams that haven't won any playoff series in the past four years (this includes Seattle). The Leafs have by far the most invested in their top forwards (just over $40.5M). Washington is the next closest team (at $32.3M) - and at least they won a Stanley Cup with that core (five years ago). No other team with zero playoff series wins since 2019 has more than about $29M invested in their forwards (among their top five contracts).

The top four Leaf forwards have scored 82 points in 98 playoff games (a pace of 69 points per 82 games). That's unacceptable for such a high cap hit. The Leafs have allocated a substantial amount in their top four forwards, they haven't delivered in April, and the lack of cap room makes it difficult to add depth.

All that being said - it's too early to tell if Dubas's tenure will be successful. If the Leafs win the Stanley Cup, or at least make a couple of deep playoff runs, all will be forgiven***. We'll look back on his tenure, and talk about his bold, unconventional approach. But until the regular season success translates into the spring, we have no choice but to conclude that Dubas (who has actually been quite good at trading and drafting) has badly mismanaged the salary cap, which has been the root cause of the Leafs' inability to win a playoff round.

====

* All data has been taken from www.spotrac.com. I'm assuming their data is complete and accurate.

** I'm focusing on the top five contracts, since the Leafs have so much money tied up in Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Rielly, and Nylander. But even if we look at the entire roster, the conclusion doesn't change. The Leafs still had the highest cap hit allocated to their forwards in 2022 ($53.1M).

*** To be clear, this is certainly possible. The Leafs have been one of the best regular season teams over the past few years, and if Matthews plays Conn Smythe calibre hockey for two months, or one of the goalies goes on a hot streak, he could become one of the biggest heroes in the city's history. But results in the playoffs, not potential, nor regular season standings, are what really matter for a team that hasn't won the Stanley Cup since prior to man first walking on the moon.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

drafting was one of the things I thought he did fairly well considering we traded ALOT of our picks

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Karlsson had just won the freaking Norris trophy and they got him without giving up a ton.

It was a worthwhile risk to take, their core group is just too old and Karlsson I think has a weird thing about not being the absolute alpha on the back end (seemed like in San Jose he only really took off once Burns left).

Should have done some scouting on karlsson to know how much of that year was no defense stats padding.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

The Leafs front office guys take the heat, but really it's mainly Matthews-Marner-Tavares-Nylander not doing enough in the playoffs.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.

Karlsson deal in Pittsburgh was fine, they got a Norris winning D for very little, was worth the risk, the team is just too old and/or has tuned out the coach.

I don't think Dubas is great, but I don't think he's like the worst GM ever, that's just hyperbolic.

How many playoff rounds did they win under Brad Treliving in Toronto last year? *crickets*

they get it over ticket prices too

overpaying and not leaving more to build a better overall team doesn't help though

wasn't good at all and was the last thing the Pens needed.

I agree

one less than Dubas so far, how long was Dubas GM again? like 5 or 6 years?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Imagine thinking that Kyle Dubas was the problem with the Penguins.

The Karlsson trade is fine. People are acting like he gave up some prize assets. Nah.

The first round pick was the only thing of value. The players were cap dumps. And the Sharks retained.

The real problem is that the Pittsburgh core is too old and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Dubas was given orders from ownership to try to keep them competitive. It’s obvious now they aren’t and can’t be.

The pens need to do a creative retool this offseason like the caps did.

Exactly this. The Karlsson deal ended up a flop but this idea that Dubas should have pre-emptively started a rebuild as soon as he was hired is ridiculous. Would FSG even had hired him if he would have said "I'm going to rebuild the team immediately"?

I don't think Dubas has done that great of a job with the Penguins but their downfall predates him by years.

 

[ffh]

So you've read none of what I stated above with Sullivan and how much say he has in this roster.

They all have say but the roster is picked by the gm.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

I’ve always wondered why the Leafs walked away from Lou Lamoriello just to let a guy who’d never negotiated professional contracts to run the team.

A washed Lewis Hamilton is better than any Esteban Ocon.

Patrick Marleau, that's why.

 

[Stephen]

He simply does not understand or respect the defensive side of the puck. When he *finally* spends money on defense, it's Erik Karlsson, who, while fun to watch and a great player in his own way, wouldn't know the defensive zone if it gave him a wedgie. Of course, in Toronto, not only was the roster top heavy, it was top heavy with forwards. He simply does not seem to consider defensive players to be worth paying or considering as part of the core.

I've had this post bookmarked for a while because it, and particularly the chart at top, remain an amazing insight into just how badly Toronto f***ed up its contract structure under Dubas. Enjoy:

Don't get me going.

Kyle Dubas built his personal brand by basically describing the offensive talent of the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins of the 2010s (how ironic) as the ticket to win the Stanley Cup, elevating a superficial understanding of offensive skill and star power to the detriment of basically everything else. Puck possession? We'll just hold onto the puck so we don't have to get it back. Defense? Go cheap and feel free to go small to capture "market inefficiencies." Goalies? Voodoo, so don't even bother investing in a serious one.

The guy does everything wrong from a hockey culture perspective. Emphasizes skill as the ultimate decider when work ethic is what has always been emphasized. Win a Stanley Cup? Only a matter of faith and belief and superficial historical comparisons. Build a winning culture and talk about loyalty on one hand, then promote a mercenary culture and inside group vs NBA bench dynamics.

 

[JianYang]

Gifted the dream situation that even my 3 year old nephew likely wins a cup with.

Bungles it so badly by trying to be friends with the young stars and overpaying the shit out of them.

Abysmal trade history, abysmal draft history, abysmal hiring history.


Somehow is wanted by Pittsburgh.

Immediately bungles the last shot of Crosby and Malkin by making a terrible trade for Erik Karlsson when he already has Letang (the same type of 1D PP player) giving up assets for it.


Please explain how this guy is anything but terrible?

I don't think a cup was inevitable in toronto. It was always going to take some work and his mistake was adding Tavares to a group that didn't necessarily need him, wasting precious cap resources.

But let's remember how leaf fans and media were acting to that transaction. The cup was supposedly in the bag.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the thing that people on HF don't understand with the Penguins is that the only chance this team had at not being what they are today is if they would have nuked the team like 5 years ago under JR. Hextall and Dubas have both done a poor job with the Penguins after JR, but where the team is today was cemented by the moves JR made with the Penguins from about the 2017-2021 window. The only way for the team to be competitive with a late 30s core is if they had a strong supplement of young players on the roster, but they absolutely do not have that due to what JR did in his last few years with the Penguins.

Here's how the Penguins did with their top-3 round picks from the 2017-2020 drafts:

-2017: no 1st (traded for Reaves), Lauzon in the 2nd round (bust), Phillips in the 3rd round (bust)
-2018: No 1st (traded for Brassard), Addison (traded for Zucker) and Hallander (traded for Kapanen, re-acquired for McCann, left for Europe to be with his family) in the 2nd round, no 3rd (traded for Brassard IIRC)
-2019: Poulin in the 1st (looking like a bust), no 2nd (traded for McCann/Bjugstad), Legare in the 3rd (bust)
-2020: No 1st (traded for Kapanen), Blomqvist in the 2nd, Clang in the 3rd (traded for Rakell by Hextall)

He also traded the Penguins 2021 1st for Zuckeras well, but that draft was handled by Hextall. In those 4 drafts, literally the only pieces the Penguins still have in the organization are Blomqvist, Poulin (who cleared waivers this year), Puustinen and Raivis Ansons (borderline AHLer/ECHLer). There is almost no way that any team with an old core can continue to be competitive with a complete lack of young players coming up to the NHL team.

The only way this team today could actually be competitive is with a new coach and having basically a second core of young players on the team with the lost picks from the 2017-2021 window. I think the 2017 and 2020 situations were especially egregious, trading pick #15 and Hallander for Kapanen in 2020 and pick #31 and Sundqvist for Reaves and pick #52 in 2017 were both horrid deals. I'm not saying things would magically be fixed had they not made those deals, but they'd be in a clearly better position right now with Mercer (#18 overall in 2020) and Hague (#34 overall in 2017) than how they actually used those picks. Although knowing Rutherford, he probably would have just traded them for whatever other shitty middle-6 winger that he would have targeted instead.

 

[Duffy13]

I'll judge him on a more critical basis when Sullivan is gone. Sullivan had a hand in bringing him in, and has a say in the types of players he wants. FSG is fully behind Sullivan right now, and with him being the US coach, I think Dubas is in a bit of hands tied situation. He should probably have vetted the role he was taking on a bit more but whatever.

It's been covered very well in the media how much say Sullivan has in regards to the types of players he wants on the ice, and with his FSG sway, I hope Dubas is applying the Malicious compliance to get rid of Sullivan so he can have more say in the vision he has, whatever it may be.

I'm not overly enthused about some of the roster moves so far, however coming to a franchise that has depleted resources I think he did an ok job, nothing fantastic. I like that he is bringing in short term contracts with picks into the fold. I dislike the Graves signing, I believe Jarry already had his contract in place between FSG and Sullivan and was waiting for a GM to be in place to get it signed. I like the Karlsson trade, but that trade needed to be followed up with some bangers on the defensive end that can cover for Letang and Karlsson when they take off.

The Bottom 6 is a lot better and is the main reason the Pens are not losing by 10 every night, Crosby and Malkin need help in the worst way, Beau is awful yet cannot be sat I guess, Bunting should be tried out more in the top 6 but isn't for some reason, PoolParty who has been playing very good gets sat in the pressbox... puzzling decisions are constantly made on the on ice personel, which is coaching. Quinn has somehow made the defensive structure worse than last year. the PP last year was a tire fire, now its just a dumpster fire... progress? maybe.

I don't know, I just want to see his body of work after Sullivan goes.

WHICH COULD BE TONIGHT BABY!!!!!!

 

[WarriorofTime]

“The issue is Shanahan won’t let him trade any of the core four”

“The issue is ownership won’t let him fire Sullivan”

Amazing how this guy keeps getting promotions and manages to continue to convince people that nothing is ever his fault and is actually his bosses fault. Why does he even have a job?

 

[Fatass]

Karlsson bad deal.
Graves bad deal.
Jarry bad signing.
Eller, Accarai, Rielly
Sullivan is beyond terrible , but that's on ownership.

Then there are the deals that could have been made that he didnt/couldn't make happen.

Players that have changed teams since Dubas took over Pens
Markstrom
Allen
Tanev
Montour
Larson
Arvedson
Skinner
Ulmark
Debrusk
Hertl
Sergachev
Tiffoli.

Just to name a few.

Dubas is in over his head. Shanny thought he had the Money Ball manager. He was wrong. He let Hunter and Lou walk away from a team on the verge of greatness to turn it over to a Play Station GM . lol
Penguins are going nowhere fast. Bad ownership, bad management , Sid, Malkin, Letang playing for milestones. After that the team will drop off a cliff.

Sullivan coached the Pens to two Cups. Maybe he should be the GM?

 

[Toby91ca]

Karlsson had just won the freaking Norris trophy and they got him without giving up a ton.

It was a worthwhile risk to take, their core group is just too old and Karlsson I think has a weird thing about not being the absolute alpha on the back end (seemed like in San Jose he only really took off once Burns left).

I think it was an absolutely terrible trade. Yes, he won the Norris, but I definitely wouldn't have voted for him for the Norris. We could argue about what was given up to acquire him, but that really isn't the biggest problem. They tied up so much money in a player they simply didn't need. As someone mentioned, you don't need both Karlsson and Letang.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Like 5 years ago...

 

[Empoleon8771]

“The issue is Shanahan won’t let him trade any of the core four”

“The issue is ownership won’t let him fire Sullivan”

Amazing how this guy keeps getting promotions and manages to continue to convince people that nothing is ever his fault and is actually his bosses fault. Why does he even have a job?

I mean this is probably true, though. The owners directly negotiated an extension with Sullivan before Dubas was even hired. The Penguins have a lot of problems, but a stale coach is definitely the #1 issue and it seems like Dubas can't really do much about that.

It can both be true that Dubas has made clear mistakes as GM while there are some things that need to be done that he doesn't have the power to do.

 

[centipede2233]

“The issue is Shanahan won’t let him trade any of the core four”

“The issue is ownership won’t let him fire Sullivan”

Amazing how this guy keeps getting promotions and manages to continue to convince people that nothing is ever his fault and is actually his bosses fault. Why does he even have a job?

I know, some guys just have all the luck. Imagine having your team under perform all 5 years your a gm, then have shanahan want to resign you and another team want to promote you have give you a 50% pay raise. It really is incredible

 

[Fatass]

I know, some guys just have all the luck. Imagine having your team under perform all 5 years your a gm, then have shanahan want to resign you and another team want to promote you have give you a 50% pay raise. It really is incredible

Yup. Lou Lam builds the Leafs a winning core and gets fired and replaced by Dubas who goes about ruining that core’s chances at a Cup.
The question isn’t if Lou Lam brings Toronto a Cup if he stays as GM but how many Cups? Leaf fans got ripped off by Shanahan.