1. Pens are a bad team.That's why the Penguins got him for 3 cap dumps and a 1st.
That being said, the Karlsson deal ended up terrible because it seems like Karlsson is a "good player on a bad team" type of player. He can't be effective playing within a structure and needs to be allowed to play like a rover to be a net positive, but good teams aren't going to want to let him play like a rover. I think what he was last year (55 points in 82 games with a neutral +/-) can be what he can be while playing within a team's system, but that's not even remotely worth $10 million a year.
I think the Penguins will get value for him with retaining 50% and trading him with only a year or two left, but the deal ended up a dud for sure. It's less that Dubas paid a ton for him, but more that Karlsson isn't remotely worth $10 million a year on a good team. Coincidentally, this is similar to what I've been saying about Granlund since he has been performing great with San Jose. I figure that Karlsson ends up getting traded for like a conditional 1st and a B prospect with the Penguins eating half of his deal at either the 2026 or 2027 deadline.
2. Pens have no structure.
So according to your theory this is a perfect team for EK.