Okay, I’m going to name about 10 gripes.
1. Ryan Lin certainly won’t be a top 10 pick. I’d be surprised if he’s top 20. Physically mature 5’11 defensemen without elite traits don’t go that high. They often don’t get drafted (not what I’m suggesting for Lin, but he won’t go as high as some say).
2. I have no clue how you contrast him as a top 5 pick with Villeneuve outside the top 20. Villeneuve might have some defensive flaws, but he’s far from physically mature (he’s grown a few inches since starting junior and his father is 6’2, so he might be far from done) and he has elite offensive traits. Ryan Lin is the token elite junior player who will likely not be more than a marginal NHL’er, if even that. I’m fine if you wanna say he’s a late first or so, but 5 is definitely a take.
3. Chase Reid is crazy low. He’s a top 5 player in this draft all day. I don’t even understand the argument against him. Calling him not an explosive skater is laughable.
4. Katolicky outside of the first round is unfathomable. I get he isn’t playing in a great league, but watch him play. He 100% passes the eye test and also the stats test. I’m captain of the Dravecky fan club, but I would be willing to bet Katolicky goes way higher between the two Czechs.
5. Ditto Malte Gustafsson. He’s way closer to Stenberg and Bjorck than not a first rounder. Marcus Nordmark is a player I didn’t really see what he’s thinking with.
6. Nycz and Hextall are two others that’ll be first rounders when all is said and done. They’re better than every NTDP player outside of maybe Schairer. NTDP players can sometimes get too much early credit amongst the American crop compared to others in the USHL.
7. I think he’s too high on the Slovaks. The precedent doesn’t say they’re on course to be first rounders.
8. Daxon Rudolph is another hyped player from before he entered junior that I think he’s overrating. He tends to put a lot of emphasis on how these players were looked at before they entered junior. Rudolph was an early developer. For instance, Verhoeff has lapped him. Good junior player for sure. Probably will be an NHL’er, but seems like more of a second rounder to me. There’s nothing there that wows you.
9. He’s too high in general on the WHL (Lin, Carels, Rudolph) and too low on the OHL crop (Reid, Fitzgerald, Lemieux).
10. I don’t see Casey Mutryn as a first rounder. He seems to have intangibles and all that, but I think he lacks high upside traits.