I can tell you watching Erik Johnson develop into a simply fine defenseman sandwiched between Crosby and Kane getting drafted 1 overall felt not great.
What's the minimum a first overall pick has to become to not be labelled a disappointment?
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In a vacuum I voted option #3.
Ekbald, Hall are both super solid NHLer's with great careers. I can't imagine calling such a career a disappointment.
But - it also definitely depends on the draft. Connor Bedard had a crazy amount of hype and expectations. Anything short of option 1 for him will be a disappointment. Some draft years have a lot lower expectations, so it really depends.
I would say that if a draft fails to produce any topline players its a disappointment overall, and I doubt it ever happened. So first line player(s) are expected from any and every draft, meaning if a team fails to get one with the #1 pick its a disappointment.
Could likely make a case for "franchise players" existing in pretty much every draft but since development aint linear I wouldn't call it a huge disappointment not getting one from a single pick.
Probably in the sense that the entire draft is, yes. Have there even been any drafts in which the top turnout is weak 1c?
weaponomega
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Probably depends on the hype of the player coming into the draft, but at a minimum I would hope to be getting a first liner, top pairing defenseman. As an example I wouldn't call Taylor Hall, or Rick Nash disappointments, but if Connor McDavid only reached the level of Taylor Hall, I would have considered him a disappointment.
hamzarocks
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Depends on the draft
Bedard would need to become tier 1 to avoid disapointment from what we know now of his abiliites. If you look at pre-draft that is still disapointing
Slafkovksy for example being in tier 3 would be exceeding expectations based on his draft and career to date.
Bedard would need to become tier 1 to avoid disapointment from what we know now of his abiliites. If you look at pre-draft that is still disapointing
Slafkovksy for example being in tier 3 would be exceeding expectations based on his draft and career to date.
I think 2012 fits the bill. The top forwards are Forsberg, Hertl, Teravainen and Wilson. The draft did have great goalies and Ds, but extremely weak at forward. Forsberg is the only clear cut first liner.
biturbo19
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First line/Top Pair caliber has to be the absolute bare minimum threshold for not being universally labelled a "disappointment". But in reality...even that is still going to catch some flak as a disappointment. It depends on the year too obviously, where some years...there just isn't that "franchise player" available 1st overall. So relative to those expectations, just getting a solid top line/top pair type fixture and core piece isn't bad or disappointing per se...but when a team has been bad enough to secure the 1st overall selection, i think there's an argument that expectations are a "franchise changing" impact player, so there's something to be said for that draft itself being "disappointing".
That is to say, in some cases i think there's maybe a bit of a distinction from the "player disappointing" vs a more generalized "disappointment" about the particular draft itself.
That is to say, in some cases i think there's maybe a bit of a distinction from the "player disappointing" vs a more generalized "disappointment" about the particular draft itself.
lawrence
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When you pick first overall, you’re expecting at the very least a star forward or a top-tier defenseman. Yeah, Bedard’s had a slow start compared to the hype, but he’s still shown he can hang as a first-line player. It’s not like Lafrenière, who hasn’t really locked down that elite role yet. Teams drafting that high just want someone who’ll make a difference, and Bedard’s still on track there—even if it hasn’t been perfect yet.
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Being first liner or #1 defender for any significant period of time seems sufficient right?
What do you mean as the years went by there was never a long run or huge cluster of franchise players taken #1.
hamzarocks
Registered User
2004-2009
OV
Crosby
EJ (bust/major disapointment)
Kane
Stamkos
Tavares
5 franchise level 1OA (Tavares and Stamkos being fringe franchise guys) with 2 top 10 players all time
Sure might be the best 5 year run but the other poster seemed to be inferring something that never actually happened really.
Also what is the difference between franchise guy and first liner it probably varies for people quite a bit.
hamzarocks
Registered User
Generally 5 first OAs wont be as good as the 04 - 09 period
The closest one I can find recently is
13.- Mack
14 - Ekblad (major outlier)
15 - Mcdavid
16 - Matthews
17 - Hischier (outlier)
Still a top 5/10 player all time, and Mack (top 25-30 all time career as of now) and Matthews (better career than Tavares and Stamkos from that list)
The weakest time from 1 OAs was mid 90s to early 00s and now 2018 to now has been pretty weak to with Hughes amd Dahlin the 2 best 1 OAs from there so far (bedard being incredibly disapointing killing the 2023 draft)
1 OA should have >50% chance of being a top 10/15 player for a sustained period of time in their careers (franchise player can be that level for 3-5 years in their careers at the minimum)
Even weak drafts like 2012 had Yakupov projected like that. Hall had multiple elite years including 2018.
What's this outlier stuff there were 5 1st round picks, one was generational another had a slow start then ahs been a franchise player for his prime, the other had a great start and is an elite goal scorer but ahs ahd injuries and playoff struggles.
Ekblad ins't an outlier he is probably middle of then ack for Dmen picked first all time.
You have Mack up there 2 years post draft was he better than Bedard?
Dahlin is doing fine and is considered a top 10 Dman in he league some health issues last couple of years.
So a first overall should be a top 10-15 player overall or at their positions, there is quite a difference there including goalies, Dmen and forwards.
Hall had multiple elite years, really?
hamzarocks
Registered User
Ekblad and Hishcier are not franchise players so they are are the outliers being non-franchise players in that group of 5 consecutive 1st OAs.
There are multiple guys drafted after Ekblad and Hischier who are better than them (Reinhart, Draisaitl, Nylander just in top 10 for 2014 and Makar, Heiskinen, Pettersson for 2017 in top 10 are better than Hischier).
Those two would not be franchise players while 13, 15, and 16 drafts produced Franchise players at 1OA
Bedard has been worse than mackinnon was his first two sessons with it looking less likely he sees a similar explosion due to physical limitations and lack of elite athletic tools. Its hard to understate how horrible his D+2 year has been both in absolute terms and relative to expectations.
Dahlin is not a top 10-15 player in the league so he isnt a franchise player yet, but he is getting closer and may join that list as soon as next season as hes getting closer to being a Norris Winning level D-man.
Franchise players are top 10-15 (maybe top 20 in a very deep league) for 3 years at minimum.
OV --> of course is that level, as hes top 10 all time
Crosby --> of course is that level, as hes top 10 all time
EJ --> never that level or close
Kane--> that level from 2013 to 2020
Stamkos --> that level 09-14
Tavares --> that levek from 13 - 15 (shortest stint of that 5-year period)
Mackinnon --> that level from 2018 to now.
Ekblad --> never close to that level
Mcdavid --> of course hes that level as hes top 10 all time
Matthews --> that level in 2021, 2022 and 2024
Hischier --> never that level.
Hall has elite seasons in 2013, 2014, and 2018, he was a top 10 player for 2 of those and top 15 for 3. He would have been a franchise winger imo if he didnt get injured so much and drafted to the dysfunctional Pre McDavid Oilers.
No Mack was worse in his first 2 seasons go back and look and Mack didn't Explode until his 5th season so writing guys like Bedard and even a guy like Power off not only isn't the case for Bedard and for Power it's hard to draft what isn't there?
Some draft like the 21 draft simply don't have the franchise type of player self evident in the #1, 2 or sometimes even 3 picks.
So it's overall players not separated with forwards and Dmen?
What to do with guys like AM or even Stamkos when they have down type of seasons in their prime?
if it's aggregate then Dahlin is 7th in dman scoring since the 21-22 season and most would have him as in the top 10-15 Dmen over that time period right?
It seems like you are suing points and then giving some guys grace periods for injuries and other guys not.
Either way this discussion just isn't very interesting any more.
Took a pill in Sbisa
2showToffoliIwascool
RNH is a first line LW. I'd call him a disappointment as an Oilers fan.
When drafted he was being projected as an elite offensive centerman that was good defensively. He turned into a complimentary 60-pt top-6 winger that's been tied at the hip to McDavid and Draisaitl. I would associate that type of player as a 5-20 overall pick. A 1st? Disappointing.
GoldenKnight
Registered User
Kind of strange poll options. "Second liner" RNH was a 100 point player at his peak.
"First liner but not franchise player" Hall won a Hart Trophy and was the best player on multiple teams at times during his peak years.
"First liner but not franchise player" Hall won a Hart Trophy and was the best player on multiple teams at times during his peak years.
Andre Palot
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Cup Or Bust
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I think you would hope at minimum a 1st overall pick is at least a top core player for your franchise for a number of years. Every draft isn't always always going to produce an elite player or generational player. What you don't want is a guy who ends being a non-impact player drafted in that spot.
