What's the minimum a first overall pick has to become to not be labelled a disappointment?

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What is the minimum level a first overall pick has to become to avoid being a "disappointment"

  • One of the best players in the world tier (MacKinnon, Matthews, Thornton)

    Votes: 2 1.3%
  • Franchise player (Tavares, Kovalchuk, Nash)

    Votes: 41 27.0%
  • First liner, top pairing defender (Hall, Ekblad)

    Votes: 93 61.2%
  • Second liner, Top 4 defender (RNH, Erik Johnson)

    Votes: 15 9.9%
  • Any sort of longtime NHL player (Stefan, Hamrlik,)

    Votes: 1 0.7%

  • Total voters
    152

895

Registered User
Jun 15, 2007
8,433
7,284
A "disappointment", not a bust. Let's be very clear on that.

For me personally, anything short of a franchise player is a disappointment. Someone on the John Tavares, Rick Nash, Ilya Kovalchuk tier. Someone like RNH, who is a good 2C and once hit 100 points when all the stars aligned, is still considered a disappointment to me. This is a first overall pick, someone who is supposed to alter the course of your franchise.

A guy like Lafreniere still has time to become more but is quite clearly on course to become a disappointment. Slaf had a slow start and is looking much better lately but I'm not sure he can ever become a franchise player either. Maybe tops out at a 70 point power forward.
 
It really depends on the depth and quality of the draft year. You're hoping to land a top line/top pair player. FWIW, I'd say Hamrlik was that for the first half of his career. From Calgary on, in his 30s, he became a steady, minute munching, all situations, player.
 
It really depends on the depth and quality of the draft year. You're hoping to land a top line/top pair player. FWIW, I'd say Hamrlik was that for the first half of his career. From Calgary on, in his 30s, he became a steady, minute munching, all situations, player.
You're right I goofed on Hamrlik, He should be moved to the Erik Johnson/RNH tier at least.
 
It really just depends on the player themselves. Not every 1st overall is created equal.

I think the most general way to not be a disappointment would be if they do end up becoming the best player of their draft class.
 
I think anytime you endure the suffering required to get the first overall pick, you’re disappointed if it doesn’t result in a true franchise defining player. Again, not a bust by any means, but it’s fair to be disappointed if you draft a guy first overall and he isn’t that caliber of guy.
 
Given your groupings and definitions, I think anything short of a franchise player is a disappointment, not bust, for a 1st overall. A guy like RNH is a disappointment while a guy like Tavares is not IMO. That said, RNH is not a bust while a guy like Yakupov is.
 
It's hard not to get your hopes up when you get the #1 overall pick. Anything short of a franchise player is a disappointment.

It's especially disappointing when you watch the #1 picks around you turn into superstars, and you're left with your 2C. Yeah, it sucks.
 
Most people are saying "First Liner/Top Pairing" but even the examples in the poll options you could argue are disappointments relative to their fans expectations. At first overall I'd hope whoever is drafted would be a cornerstone for my team for the next 10-15 years. Hall had one great year, I'm not sure Ekblad was ever really GREAT.
 
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Anything less than a franchise player at 1st overall would be a disappointment to me. Sure there are drafts without any clear franchise-caliber prospects and you could have a player taken 1st overall who isn't a disappointment compared to their expectations as a prospect. But that would still be a disappointing 1st overall pick, just the reasoning being the disappointment being bad timing of when the team "earned" that pick.
 
Franchise player. That's what people would associate the 1st overall with. Anything below that is a disappointment. But as years went on, people started to lower the bar due to frequent disappointments
 
Given your groupings and definitions, I think anything short of a franchise player is a disappointment, not bust, for a 1st overall. A guy like RNH is a disappointment while a guy like Tavares is not IMO. That said, RNH is not a bust while a guy like Yakupov is.
The thing is that Tavares had way higher expectations than Nugent-Hopkins
 
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I think anytime you endure the suffering required to get the first overall pick, you’re disappointed if it doesn’t result in a true franchise defining player. Again, not a bust by any means, but it’s fair to be disappointed if you draft a guy first overall and he isn’t that caliber of guy.

Exactly. You slog through a whole nightmare season, plus years of development time, just for him to be a second-tier player on his own team? That’s crushing.
 
1OA should only be compared to others in their draft class , if they top out at as weak 1C but they are the best player from their draft, are they really a disappointment?
 
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