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- Apr 4, 2014
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What's the absolute minimum each playoff team has to do for it not to be a disappointing run for them?
- Thread starter bobholly39
- Start date
forsbergavs32
Global Moderator
- Jan 21, 2011
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As an Avs fan, I personally don’t see thinking Cup or bust is too ridiculous. This is the deepest roster they’ve had since the Cup run and CMac went all in this season reshaping the roster completely to add depth and much better goaltending. He pretty much sold off any futures not nailed down for this run so it’s going to be tough to swing deals going forward to build a deep roster again. So IMO anything not sniffing a Cup is a failure.
Craig Button
Registered User
The only acceptable loss for the Leafs is Tampa Bay or Florida.
in round 2 and maybe the Jets in the finals.
Any other team it's a must win
in round 2 and maybe the Jets in the finals.
Any other team it's a must win
T REX
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2013
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Tampa - ECF for sure...some might even say the SCFs...I've mellowed a lot. I was spoiled. Mea culpa. ECFs would be awesome and I think most would agree.
Johnny HFBOARDS
Trade you!
I'm sure a bunch of us here can chip in for the Playoff Sportsnet package they need for their region.
I don't mean to go into a whole Toronto/Jets comparison here - but I just brought it up because it came up in another thread too and so I had recently looked at the stats. People always tend to focus on Leafs playoff woes (and it's true, they always fail in round 1, which is hilarious if you're not a leaf fan), but in a vacuum, there are other teams who have done worst.
Since 2016-2017 (Matthews' era start), win percentage in playoffs:
LA Kins .273
Wild .303
Chicago .308
New Jersey .353
Calgary .355
Winnipeg .400
Columbus .419
Toronto .421
You're right, Jets made it to round 3 once and not Toronto, and that's probably more important - but still, for win percentage Jets do very bad.
And - if instead of going all the way back to 2017, you only look at the past ~4-5 years, it's even worst in the Jets vs Leafs comparison.
In the end - and sticking to premise of this thread - I think both teams need round 3 or 4 minimum for this not to be a disappointing year. I was a bit easier on Jets, and feel good about my suggestion that Jets need round 3 minimum, whereas Leafs need round 4 minimum for this year to be a success.
I think Leafs are running out of time. Tavares and Marner are free agents....and they haven't done shit with this core for playoff success.
If they make it to round 3 and lose....then what? Do the Leafs believe they can run it back and do better next year? Or is the core going to explode, and they regress? I figure making the actual finals is significant - and is more likely to lead to believing you can run it back/make finals again. A lot of back to back finalists in recent years, including Florida & Tampa from their own division.
The Leafs also haven't made a SCF since 1967, so making it would be a big thing. They've lost in conference finals a lot of times since then.
You're probably right that a strong 6 or 7 games effort in ECF would still be a positive, I just think the bar is slightly higher for Leafs.
Leafs losing to Tampa or Florida would be the absolute worst case scenario for the Leafs in my opinion. I think it would be better for them to lose in round 1 - at least then they'll do major changes to core (especially with their big UFAs) try and change things.
If they lose to Tampa/Florida yet again - it's same shit all over again. Leafs will run it back the next year thinking "this time it'll work".
I'd say both teams need to make the final for this to not be a dissappointing year. The clock is ticking on both of these cores and they have never looked better.
HockeyVirus
Woll stan.
- Nov 15, 2020
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They run it back lol what else do you think? Leafs have no future after 4 or 5 years. But they still have a few pieces coming and guys like Knies and Robertson for the next few years. They have until the end of this current Matthews deal as a window IMO and then it will be very ugly
Hennessy
Ye Jacobites, by name
For Colorado I'd say it's an appearance in the WCF. They went all in and not going deeper will be a tough pill to swallow.
But really, it's Nichushkin finishing the playoffs with the team, whenever that might be.
But really, it's Nichushkin finishing the playoffs with the team, whenever that might be.
The Panther
Registered User
The Cup: Florida (defending champs, so...), Vegas (recent champ)
Cup finals: Tampa Bay, Dallas, Edmonton, Toronto, Winnipeg
Third round: Colorado, Washington
Second round: Los Angeles, Carolina, New Jersey, Minnesota
Anything is gravy: Ottawa, Montréal, St. Louis
Round 1 opponent - 99 points, 12th overall
Round 2 opponent - 109 points, 7th overall
Round 3 opponent - 113 points, 2nd overall
Round 4 opponent - 110 points, 4th overall
This is actually an "average-to-slightly-more-difficult-than-average" path to the Finals + FInals' opponent. It's the opposite of easy.
I think the Oilers were a bit fortunate to avoid Colorado last year, as I think the Avs would have given Edmonton's goaltending nightmares. (Conversely, I think the Oilers would have easily beaten Vegas last year. This year, maybe a different story...)
Cup finals: Tampa Bay, Dallas, Edmonton, Toronto, Winnipeg
Third round: Colorado, Washington
Second round: Los Angeles, Carolina, New Jersey, Minnesota
Anything is gravy: Ottawa, Montréal, St. Louis
Not sure what you're smoking but there is no way in hades the Oilers had an "easy route" last year!:
Round 1 opponent - 99 points, 12th overall
Round 2 opponent - 109 points, 7th overall
Round 3 opponent - 113 points, 2nd overall
Round 4 opponent - 110 points, 4th overall
This is actually an "average-to-slightly-more-difficult-than-average" path to the Finals + FInals' opponent. It's the opposite of easy.
I think the Oilers were a bit fortunate to avoid Colorado last year, as I think the Avs would have given Edmonton's goaltending nightmares. (Conversely, I think the Oilers would have easily beaten Vegas last year. This year, maybe a different story...)
The Panther
Registered User
After one playoff series win in 21 years (!), don't you think you're setting the bar a bit high...?
voyageur
Grizzled
- Jul 10, 2011
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For the Jets I think the minimum is win a round.
They were not the winners at the deadline. If Colorado with 2 franchise players to lead the team, Brock Nelson and the potential winners of the Rantanen trade took us out in round 2, it would be bitter, but those NTCs who shunned Winnipeg could at least be seen as a reason the Jets couldn't fly over the Avalanche
St. Louis is a team that could have been on the brink of a retool if Monty didn't come to save the day, with 4 Nations being the turning point of the Blues season.
They were not the winners at the deadline. If Colorado with 2 franchise players to lead the team, Brock Nelson and the potential winners of the Rantanen trade took us out in round 2, it would be bitter, but those NTCs who shunned Winnipeg could at least be seen as a reason the Jets couldn't fly over the Avalanche
St. Louis is a team that could have been on the brink of a retool if Monty didn't come to save the day, with 4 Nations being the turning point of the Blues season.
PainForShane
formerly surfshop
- Dec 24, 2019
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Great thread idea.
That said, I do think though that a hard fought series ending in a game 6 or 7 OT loss feels much better than getting swept or whatever the Leafs did against Florida a couple years ago -- another example is the 50-win Blackhawks being swept by Nashville, that sweep forcibly ended that dynasty. So for most teams I don't think it's more than just 'what round did we make it to' -- as much as we clown on the Keefe's handshake line quote there is respect earned from a hard fought series. Anyway:
Cup or Bust: Edmonton
Hard fought Conference final: Colorado, Dallas, Carolina, Florida, Tampa, Winnipeg
Hard fought 2nd round series: Toronto, Vegas, Washington
Hard fought 1st round series: New Jersey, Minnesota, LA
Season already a success, would still be nice to win a game or two: Ottawa, Montreal, STL
***
To me it's absolutely crazy that Dallas and Colorado are playing in the first round and the winner most likely gets to play Winnipeg... And also Tampa / Florida in the 1st round. Should be seeing some good hockey early on
That said, I do think though that a hard fought series ending in a game 6 or 7 OT loss feels much better than getting swept or whatever the Leafs did against Florida a couple years ago -- another example is the 50-win Blackhawks being swept by Nashville, that sweep forcibly ended that dynasty. So for most teams I don't think it's more than just 'what round did we make it to' -- as much as we clown on the Keefe's handshake line quote there is respect earned from a hard fought series. Anyway:
Cup or Bust: Edmonton
Hard fought Conference final: Colorado, Dallas, Carolina, Florida, Tampa, Winnipeg
Hard fought 2nd round series: Toronto, Vegas, Washington
Hard fought 1st round series: New Jersey, Minnesota, LA
Season already a success, would still be nice to win a game or two: Ottawa, Montreal, STL
***
To me it's absolutely crazy that Dallas and Colorado are playing in the first round and the winner most likely gets to play Winnipeg... And also Tampa / Florida in the 1st round. Should be seeing some good hockey early on
I have to disagree. If Florida gets to the second round they should have everyone in the lineup and no rust. There will expectations of the finals or a cup.
KingsFan7824
Registered User
Washington Capitals. Weren't supposed to be where they are, and Ovechkin already has his Cup, but at this point, how is anything short of a Final run not disappointing?
Toronto Maple Leafs. It's the Leafs. Two huge UFAs. Not exactly a young team anymore. It's at least be in the series for the Cup.
Tampa Bay Lightning. Already done their damage recently, nothing really left to prove, but taking out the Panthers and getting out of the 1st rd again would be something.
Carolina Hurricanes. UFAs all over the place. At least a 2nd rd team 5 of the last 6 years. Another make it to at least the Final team.
Florida Panthers. Just have fun guys.
Ottawa Senators. Learning experience, schmearning experience, but there is a reality to it. Take out the Leafs and drive them into franchise altering moves, that's enough.
New Jersey Devils. Nobody expects anything without Hughes, so, again, take out the Canes and drive them to team altering moves, that's enough.
Montreal Canadiens. Already not disappointed.
Winnipeg Jets. Haven't gotten far recently, but look at the ages. They don't have realistic time to not be disappointed with anything less than a Final run.
Vegas Golden Knights. They're Vegas. Again, nothing short of a Final run.
Dallas Stars. Depending on who is or isn't healthy, but Benn is a UFA, and 3rd rd the last 2 years. Again, Final or bust.
Los Angeles Kings. It's just beating the Oilers. You couldn't let it happen 3 years in a row, you damn sure can't let it happen a 4th time in 4 years. It's like Hartford with Boston and Montreal in the late 80's/early 90's.
Colorado Avalanche. Final or bust.
Edmonton Oilers. At least the Final again or bust.
Minnesota Wild. Take out Vegas, and that's great. Finally have cap space this summer, one more year of Kaprizov at only $9m, so even if you lose to Vegas in 5, just too much dead cap to be sad with anything this season.
St Louis Blues. Since they were sitting 10th in the West a month ago, a solid showing against the Jets is enough.
Toronto Maple Leafs. It's the Leafs. Two huge UFAs. Not exactly a young team anymore. It's at least be in the series for the Cup.
Tampa Bay Lightning. Already done their damage recently, nothing really left to prove, but taking out the Panthers and getting out of the 1st rd again would be something.
Carolina Hurricanes. UFAs all over the place. At least a 2nd rd team 5 of the last 6 years. Another make it to at least the Final team.
Florida Panthers. Just have fun guys.
Ottawa Senators. Learning experience, schmearning experience, but there is a reality to it. Take out the Leafs and drive them into franchise altering moves, that's enough.
New Jersey Devils. Nobody expects anything without Hughes, so, again, take out the Canes and drive them to team altering moves, that's enough.
Montreal Canadiens. Already not disappointed.
Winnipeg Jets. Haven't gotten far recently, but look at the ages. They don't have realistic time to not be disappointed with anything less than a Final run.
Vegas Golden Knights. They're Vegas. Again, nothing short of a Final run.
Dallas Stars. Depending on who is or isn't healthy, but Benn is a UFA, and 3rd rd the last 2 years. Again, Final or bust.
Los Angeles Kings. It's just beating the Oilers. You couldn't let it happen 3 years in a row, you damn sure can't let it happen a 4th time in 4 years. It's like Hartford with Boston and Montreal in the late 80's/early 90's.
Colorado Avalanche. Final or bust.
Edmonton Oilers. At least the Final again or bust.
Minnesota Wild. Take out Vegas, and that's great. Finally have cap space this summer, one more year of Kaprizov at only $9m, so even if you lose to Vegas in 5, just too much dead cap to be sad with anything this season.
St Louis Blues. Since they were sitting 10th in the West a month ago, a solid showing against the Jets is enough.
For the Habs, just taking the opening faceoff is the minimum they need to do to not be disappointing.
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