What's the absolute minimum each playoff team has to do for it not to be a disappointing run for them?

bobholly39

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Mar 10, 2013
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Obviously this is subjective - but in your opinion, what is the absolute minimum each team has to do for it not to be considered a big disappointment for them?

I'll try with my own attempt at this. Please share your own thoughts too.


Washington Capitals. Make it to round 3 minimum. The metro seems pretty wide open this year, so expectations are high. Also - in the Ovechkin era, only once did Washington make it past round 2 - so round 3 seems like a good target. I know Washington already very much exceeded expectations by being a top team (most didn't expect them to make playoffs, let alone win conference), but I think anything short of round 3 is a disappointment.

Toronto Maple Leafs. Stanley Cup Finals minimum. Some might say even round 3 would be a good start, but I disagree. This is a top team, a top core, who has massively underachieved so far in the Matthews/Marner era for playoffs. They are running out of time - you can't just do round 3 and be happy. I almost wanted to say "cup or bust", but I let up - making the finals would be great, anything less would be a disappointment.

Tampa Bay Lightning. Round 3 minimum. A bit unsure about them - on the one hand they won 2 cups (3 finals) with this core, so anything extra is gravy. But the east seems pretty wide open this year, they seem well rested and healthy and itching to win again, so I do think if they don't go far it will be disappointing. I'll settle on round 3 - winning the Atlantic. Anything less is a disappointment.

Carolina Hurricanes. Stanley Cup Finals minimum. This is a team that rarely loses in round 1, yet still always manages to fall short of making it far enough. They've had a strong core, and a good playoff team for a while - it's now or never. I think they need to go to finals and make a run at the cup, or else it would be disappointing.

Florida Panthers. Very strong effort in round 1 is enough by me. I'm not a big Panthers fan and I've made no secret of it, but as cup champions, back to back finalists, and with injuries on top of it - they get a pass from me. I'm sure they want to go all the way again, but if they somehow lose in round 1 while at least making it a really tough round for Tampa (6-7 tough games), I think the fanbase will probably accept it, and simply assume with a long off season they can be back in the mix next year.

Ottawa Senators. Make a series out of round 1. 6 games minimum, preferably 7. If they can at least be a very tough out in round 1, it would be something to build off of and hopefully try to make a better run next year. I think the Senators are simply happy to finally qualify for the playoffs again.

New Jersey Devils. Same as above - give Carolina a strong showing in round 1. With Jack Hughes out, it completely changes expectations. If he had been healthy, I'd have said round 3 minimum, but for now they are definitely underdogs.

Montreal Canadiens. I'm a Habs fan - and certainly hope they do well and actually beat Washington - but in reality, simply giving Capitals a strong showing in round 1 - ideally with the core guys like Suzuki, Caufield - but also Demidov and Hutson - doing well will be great. Like the above teams, extending it to 6 or 7 games is enough.

Winnipeg Jets. Round 3 minimum. I almost want to say finals, but I'll be conservative. Winnipeg has a worst win history than Toronto does with their core in the playoffs. Hellebuyck has not been good either. I think they are in a similar spot to Washington, in that they had a much better season than expected but I personally also don't buy them as a top contender. But due to previous playoff failures, I think round 3 minimum including a strong perfrmance by Hellebuyck is necessary for this playoff not to be a disappointment.

Vegas Golden Knights. Round 3 minimum. The West is crazy strong, and they already won a cup recently - so I'll say if they can make it out of the Pacific it'll be a positive outcome for them.

Dallas Stars. Beat Colorado in round 1. I hesitated with this one, as I think expectations are high in Dallas, but they also have a lot of injuries. So I'll say - simply beating Colorado in round 1 will be a big step, and possibly enough, considering injuries.

Los Angeles Kings. Eliminate Edmonton and reach round 2. I think LA is going to lose in round 1 again, but I would guess simply making it to round 2 would be a positive outcome here. They had a great season, but are likely to face more strong teams in round 2 if they make it, so I'll say simply making round 2 would be good enough to not be disappointing. Obviously losing to Edmonton yet again would be very disappointing in LA.

Colorado Avalanche. This team wants the cup, but I'll be a bit more conservative and say Stanley Cup Finals minimum. They won 3 years ago, and are itching to win again. They're well rested and healthy, and should be a contender. I say anything other than making the finals will be disappointing for them.

Edmonton Oilers. My first and only "cup or bust". With how close to the cup they came last year - it's all that matters. Anything else is a disappointment. I'm not exactly sure how healthy McDavid and Draisaitl are - but I get the sense they are good to go for round 1. I know expectations around the league for Oilers are lower now then they were to start the year, but for Oilers I think it's only the cup that matters. And I think they are going to do it - and win this year.

Minnesota Wild. Strong showing in round 1 (6 or 7 games). They are an underdog in round 1 - winning 1 round or more would be great, but I think simply not getting swept or losing in 5 would be enough to not be too disappointing.

St Louis Blues. Strong showing in round 1 (6 or 7 games). They are an underdog in round 1 - winning 1 round or more would be great, but I think simply not getting swept or losing in 5 would be enough to not be too disappointing.

Let me know if you agree or disagree with the above - and post your own assessments of other teams too.
 
I don't really agree it is finals minimum, but it is absolutely the final 4 and it is a long hard fought series in the ECF.

If the Leafs go out in game 6 or 7 in the ECF I think in retrospect the fanbase would be happy with that progress
 
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Set the bar high, Stanley Cup. They all made the playoffs now they have to cash in.
 
Are you (OP) a fan of any of these teams? Why would any fan of a recent Cup winner say “Stanley Cup Finals minimum”. That’s unfair. Edit: I see OP is indeed a fan of the Habs. I don’t think that means anything, but damn, I would think fans of recent winners would be a lot more lenient (such as the Avs).

My opinions for each team:

Washington Capitals. Make it to round 2 minimum. They have a relatively recent Cup (2018) and it is a huge surprise that the team has been able to retool so quickly into a top team, after last year.

Toronto Maple Leafs. Make it round 3 minimum. No Leaf fan on this planet wouldn’t say round 3 is a success. Keep in mind this is a fan base that hasn’t seen a round 3 since 2002. We MUST have a Cup to make the pain worth it. But realistically, round 3 would be a huge improvement.

Tampa Bay Lightning. Round 1 competitive minimum. Come on bruv. They were recently a dynasty with three straight finals and two Cups.

Carolina Hurricanes. Stanley Cup Finals minimum. Agreed with you here. They’ve made round 3 a bunch of times. Time to take it to the next step.

Florida Panthers. Very strong effort in round 1 is enough by me. Agreed. Recent cup winner. Two straight finals. Don’t need anything more than a competitive round 1.

Ottawa Senators. Make a series out of round 1. Agreed. But for my mental health, please let the leafs win.

New Jersey Devils. Same as above - give Carolina a strong showing in round 1. Agreed.

Montreal Canadiens. Make it to 5 games. They’re a surprise team with a bright future. Winning even just one game would be a success.

Winnipeg Jets. Round 3 minimum. Agreed. Time for Winnipeg to make the next step.

Vegas Golden Knights. Round 1 minimum. Bruv. Recent cup winner. Made the finals their first year. They don’t need anything beyond round 1.

Dallas Stars. Stanley Cup Finals minimum. I think they need to make the finals because of how often they’ve been eliminated in round 3 recently.

Los Angeles Kings. Eliminate Edmonton and reach round 2. Agreed.

Colorado Avalanche. Make it a competitive round 1. Again, another recent cup winner. The idea that Avs fans would say “finals or bust” is ridiculous.

Edmonton Oilers. My first and only "cup or bust". Agreed. Only way to erase the pain of past year.

Minnesota Wild. Round 2 minimum. Slight disagreement with OP here.

St Louis Blues. Strong showing in round 1 (6 or 7 games). Agreed. Recent cup winner. And they made it into playoffs with a crazy win streak.
 
I want to say this is an incredible thread idea.

I am going to post my thoughts w/o reading any elses


I am a fan of a western team so I apologize to the East in advance

West:

Series 1
Winnipeg: They have to win at least a round IMO but with their regular season performance some might say conference finals or bust. I don't agree though. The central is the toughest division and I expect Dallas or Colorado to come out of the west

St Louis: In reality this playoff run is all gravy because of their start, but after their similar occurrences with 2019 and that they have been Gal Gadot level hit, I think they are expected to win at least a round

I think who(m)ever wins this series is in trouble against Dallas or Colorado unless there is a mutually assured destruction situation


Series 2

Dallas and Colorado- Cup or bust. IMO these are the two best teams in the west and this should be a conference final matchup and not a first round matchup and besides the annual Kings/Oilers series a reason why the format needs to change

Series 3-
Vegas- I think Vegas is expected to come out of the Pacific and make the conference finals
Minny- I think being a wild card team and missing the playoffs last season and that they are finally almost out of cap hell that this would be gravy but I would also think their fans would want to win at least round

Series 4
Edmonton- I would think expectations are cup or bust considering where they finished last year and McDri

LA- I think there will be changes in LA if they lose again and this is their best chance to slay the dragon


East- Once again apologies in advance

Toronto- ooof. uhhh. Win a round?
Ottawa- I would have to imagine that this is all graqvy for Sens Nation. They are a young team on the rise and this will be the core's first taste. But they are playing their provincial rival who has a reputation so I think not winning at least a round would sting

Series 2
TBL/Florida- The Dallas/Colorado of the west . Cuo or bust . should have been a conference final matchup. The 2 best teams in the East

Series 3
Washington- With their regular season, expectations will be the conference finals
Montreal- Like Ottawa young team on the rise. This run should be all gravy

Series 4
Carolina- Cup or bust.
NJ- younger team on the rise- I wouldn't think that they would be expected to win this matchup
 
Winnipeg: If theyre as good as everyone says, SCF should be their expectation. Realistically though win 1 rd.

Vegas: SCF. Easy path to get to the WCF.

Colorado: SCF: Hardest matchup is rd 1.

Dallas: Ditto Colorado.

Los Angeles: Beat Edmonton.

Edmonton: I mean they heavily overacheived due to an easy route last year, but in the McDrai era its cup or bust.

St. Louis: Win a round.

Minnesota: Just happy to be there.

Washington: ECF. They've got a very reasonable path to get there. No shame in losing to TB/FLA.

Toronto: SCF. If they can get into rd 2, and then past the state of Florida, the ECF will be the easiest matchup they've had.

Tampa: SCF. Their 1st rd matchup will be the toughest challenge, after that rd 2 & 3 should be easy.

Florida: Ditto Tampa.

Carolina: Probably expect another ECF.

New Jersey: Win one rd.

Ottawa: One one rd.

Montreal: Should just be happy to be in.
 
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The Cup: Colorado, Tampa Bay, Florida, Edmonton, Vegas.
Cup finals: Toronto, Winnipeg.
Third round: Dallas, Washington, Carolina.
Second round: Ottawa, Los Angeles.
Take it to 6-7 games in round 1: New Jersey, Minnesota, St-Louis.
Anything is gravy: Montréal.

Just the way I view it, not necessarily the way fans of those teams will view it.
 
Cup or Bust: Winnipeg, Dallas, Edmonton
Third Round: Toronto, Washington, Tampa Bay, Vegas, Colorado
Second Round: Carolina, Florida, Los Angeles, Minnesota,
House Money: Ottawa, Montreal, St.Louis, New Jersey
 
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Round 3 minimum alumni

Washington Capitals
Toronto Maple Leafs
Tampa Bay Lightning
Winnipeg Jets
Vegas Golden Knights
 
Landy play and not die.
Nuke not do coke.

We have the Stars then Jets/Blues and then we can relax a bit with the Pacific then likely Florida, so not going to be massively dissappointed if we dont make it out of the 1st/2nd round. Its a bloodbath there.
 
Toronto Maple Leafs. Stanley Cup Finals minimum. Some might say even round 3 would be a good start, but I disagree. This is a top team, a top core, who has massively underachieved so far in the Matthews/Marner era for playoffs. They are running out of time - you can't just do round 3 and be happy. I almost wanted to say "cup or bust", but I let up - making the finals would be great, anything less would be a disappointment.

Pretty much this.

After 9 years, a single CF appearance simply wouldn't cut it.

And if they get as far as the Final Four there's no excuse for them not to beat any of the possible opponents they'd face as they will (I guess arguably) already got past the toughest one - the winner of the Bolts/Panthers. To fall short so close would be a huge missed opportunity.
 
"Winnipeg has a worst win history than Toronto does with their core in the playoffs."

Citation needed. 2018 Winnipeg went to conference finals. Toronto went to the second round once and got spanked.

Jets need to go to the conference finals after that season.
 
Winnipeg Jets. Round 3 minimum. I almost want to say finals, but I'll be conservative. Winnipeg has a worst win history than Toronto does with their core in the playoffs. Hellebuyck has not been good either. I think they are in a similar spot to Washington, in that they had a much better season than expected but I personally also don't buy them as a top contender. But due to previous playoff failures, I think round 3 minimum including a strong perfrmance by Hellebuyck is necessary for this playoff not to be a disappointment.

I agree with most of what you said except the Jets have a little bit better win history then Toronto does with their core. They have won 3 rounds to Toronto's 1. They've been to a Western Conference Finals with a good chunk of this core in 2018. Schiefele, Connor, Ehlers, Lowry, Tanev, Morrissey and Hellebuyck were all on that team that took out the reigning ?Presidents Trophy winning Predators in the 2nd round. And the majority of this core was around when they took out the Oilers in the 1st round in 2021.

Granted Toronto has more success more recently winning a round in 2023 while the Jets last win was 2021. But I'd say that the Jets core players have had a little bit more success overall in the playoffs.

I expect a Stanley Cup Finals appearence at the bare minimum right now by both cores though.
 
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Leafs: Conference Finals

Senators: Playing with house money

Stars: Cup or Bust

Avalanche: Conference Finals

Kings: Conference Finals

Oilers: Cup or Bust

Hurricanes: Conference Finals

Devils: Conference Semi-Finals

Winnipeg Jets: Conference Finals

Blues: Conference Semi-Finals

Lightning: Stanley Cup Final

Panthers: Cup or Bust

Golden Knights: Stanley Cup Final

Wild: Conference Semi-Final

Capitals: Conference Final

Montreal: Playing with house money
 
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I feel differently than some and would say outside of somewhat extreme circumstances it’s unfair to call any team that makes the conference finals “disappointing”. By that time every team has established themselves in the elite tier of the postseason and anyone can certainly beat anyone.

Only team I’d say that might have those circumstances this year is Edmonton after the last run and all the questions around whether they ever win one with McD and Drai.
 
I'll cover the 2 extremes-

Cup or bust- Toronto, Edmonton

We're just glad to be here- Blues, Sens, Habs
 
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