What's best case scenario for Habs this season in terms of how high in the standings they could finish?

[bobholly39]

First - I know everyone wants us to tank/get a high draft pick - so I get that finishing high in standings is more a "worst case scenario" than a "best case scenario". I get it.

But - coach/players don't want to lose. They go into every season trying to win/make playoffs/contend, etc. Martin St Louis in particular seemed to have a greatly positive effect on the team when he first joined last year.

So - ignoring the tank for a minute - looking at the roster as it is today, and potentials for lows and highs - what do you think is realistically the highest they could finish in the standings? Are they a bottom 5 team no matter what? Could they be competing for playoffs all year, and fall short? Any hope of actual playoffs?

If you think higher than bottom 5 - where does the Habs potential success lie in the most? Is it goalie, and seeing if Allen can have a strong season as a #1 starter (which he's been before)? Is it our forwards? Is it our young D stepping up?

For the sake of this thread - I'm personally assuming Price is out for season. Because I still think he's a difference maker, but it doesn't seem like he'll play at all, let alone anytime soon.

Again - I know most people here want a bad season in a very deep 23 draft for high picks. But just trying to get a sense of what everyone feels is the most this group is capable of achieving this year.

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[WeThreeKings]

in the East, the only teams they could finish ahead of are Detroit, Buffalo and Philadelphia.

So you're looking anywhere from 5-10 in the draft pre-lotto as the "best case" scenario for people who want to win games.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Finishing bottom 3 in the league, selling off UFA anssets for more picks and lots of ice time for young players.

Than in the off-season, flip picks (not 1sts) as trade bait for good young players we need and use cap to sign future core and add what’s needed from UFA/trade market.

 

[salbutera]

It’s a 100% guarantee IMO Habs won’t beat out Yotes and Hawks for bottom-2 of standings…

I fully expect a reversion to norm from the likes of Gallagher (30G+), Dvorak (40pts), Monahan (60pts+) & Drouin (50pts+). Also expect the Matheson & Dadonov acquisitions to contribute in improving PP productivity.

I expect Habs will end up with 8-15OA pick next draft.

 

[morhilane]

The D-core is worst than last year after the trade deadline. The Habs records post TDL was under .400 which would be good for last 5 in any seasons.

Unless some miracle on ice happens, the Habs are a bottom 10 team next season, but if they finish below the Hawks and Coyotes, there is a serious problem with the players...

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Best case is 32nd in the league is this a serious question?

 

[habsfan92]

They will lose a lot of close games. Will finish bottom 5, as I am sure with Bedard on the menu as a few teams will not push to be better to get the prize.

 

[HomeAndHome]

Things will have to go horribly wrong like they did last year to finish below Chicago and Arizona. I don't expect that to happen again, but the defense and goaltending will hold the Habs back from finishing too high in the standings.

I see Montreal finish as a bottom 10 team along with Buffalo, Philadelphia, Seattle, and San Jose. There will be other teams that dissappoint as well, but won't know until the season plays out.

So IMO best case is in the bottom 6-12 range... And if everything goes crazy right for the team, PP is fixed, Allen stays healthy and plays decent, defense holds their own... I could see a bubble playoff team. Even in the best case scenario this year I don't think they'll be a playoff team, too many major holes on the back end.

 

[bobholly39]

Finishing bottom 3 in the league, selling off UFA anssets for more picks and lots of ice time for young players.

Than in the off-season, flip picks (not 1sts) as trade bait for good young players we need and use cap to sign future core and add what’s needed from UFA/trade market.

Best case is 32nd in the league is this a serious question?

You guys didn't read the OP...

To word the question differently, I'm more asking "how high can this team realistically finish this year". I get majority of us want them to finish as close to 32nd as possible - but that's just not what I'm asking here.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I see us having a strong start to the season, and then slowly start to suck.
We likely finish around 7-8th last.
The highest I can see us finishing is ~12th last

 

[JRichard]

It’s a 100% guarantee IMO Habs won’t beat out Yotes and Hawks for bottom-2 of standings…

I fully expect a reversion to norm from the likes of Gallagher (30G+), Dvorak (40pts), Monahan (60pts+) & Drouin (50pts+). Also expect the Matheson & Dadonov acquisitions to contribute in improving PP productivity.

I expect Habs will end up with 8-15OA pick next draft.

Gallagher 30g+ i highly doubt that. Barely hit 30+ goals twice in 10 years.
Drouin 50 pts + same. Barely hit 50+ twice in 8.
Dvorak never hit 40 pts in 6 tries.
Matheson not replacing petry’s 40 pts.
Monahan is on IR.

seems to me you are expecting career years out of all these guys.

 

[OB5]

You have to look at the division and realize that the Habs are without a doubt the on-paper worst team in the division. They play more games against the divisional teams than they do the rest of the league. You have to think they will lose the majority of their divisional games, which means they will be essentially losing four point games often which means no chance at a playoff spot. When you factor in the fact that they're one of the worst if not the worst on-paper team in the conference it gets even worse.

TLDR, other teams are just better than Montreal and the habs will lose a lot.

 

[salbutera]

Gallagher 30g+ i highly doubt that. Barely hit 30+ goals twice in 10 years.
Drouin 50 pts + same. Barely hit 50+ twice in 8.
Dvorak never hit 40 pts in 6 tries.
Matheson not replacing petry’s 40 pts.
Monahan is on IR.

seems to me you are expecting career years out of all these guys.

I’ll repost:

Gallagher was top 5 in the league in goals/per 60 min even strength for the three years prior to last one. Two straight 30G+ seasons, was on pace for 30+ in 19-20, and 20-21 curtailed by injury

 

[Ezpz]

We don't have a legit starting goalie or any top 4 D except Matheson. I wouldn't worry too much about us placing too high.

 

[rickthegoon]

I think there are WAYYYYYY too many unknowns within our own team to even try making any predictions, let alone compare our team to others.
one thing is almost certain; we can’t have as many injuries as last season, so that’s a +
I have zero expectations from so many players on offense…. Drouin-Monahan -Dach-Dvorak-Hoffman-Armia-Dadonov. Any of them could fetch 20 pts…or 65pts !
Allen is very injury prone, Monty looks like a Vézina contender some games, and sometimes gives Red light Racicot vibes on others.
The only sure thing is that D is going to be bad….or is it? What if Guhle ,Baron or Harris turn out to be studs right of the get go ?
If I was to guess, ceiling is around 18th place overall, floor around 28th overall.

 

[sandviper]

"Best case" would be a bottom-5 finish. We aren't losing more than Arizona for sure. Chicago depleted their team, but they still got Kane so I wouldn't automatically pencil them as the second worse though they'll likely be bottom-5 also.

Our defence is arguably worse than last year, though a full season of Edmundson may change things. Goaltending is the same. While I don't expect us to be league worse in GA, we aren't going to be good. Our forwards though aren't that bad if we're going to be objective about it. If some players, like Suzuki, Caufield and especially Dach take steps forward, we'll score more. If we're talking about guys like Drouin, Daddy and Monahan scoring at a 0.6 to 0.7 rate as well (which we should hope for to increase their value), we won't be THAT bad.

We'll probably be hovering around 4-7 most of the season, but after the TDL where we should clean out the roster, we'll likely drop more through the end of the season.

That said, if we get hit with injuries, this all changes.

 

[WeThreeKings]

"Best case" would be a bottom-5 finish. We aren't losing more than Arizona for sure. Chicago depleted their team, but they still got Kane so I wouldn't automatically pencil them as the second worse though they'll likely be bottom-5 also.

Our defence is arguably worse than last year, though a full season of Edmundson may change things. Goaltending is the same. While I don't expect us to be league worse in GA, we aren't going to be good. Our forwards though aren't that bad if we're going to be objective about it. If some players, like Suzuki, Caufield and especially Dach take steps forward, we'll score more.

We'll probably be hovering around 4-7 most of the season, but after the TDL where we should clean out the roster, we'll likely drop more through the end of the season.

That said, if we get hit with injuries, this all changes.

Edmundson already out indefinitely.

 

[sampollock]

3rd

 

[WinterLion]

BEST BEST BEST case scenario:

2 of the young D are able to step in and be legit top 4 right away (extremely unlikely)

AND

the G tandem in above league average (very unlikely)...

then we could be in the large group of teams battling for the last spot. Even in this scenario... we probably wind up with a lottery pick...

I think it's going to be a fun year to be a fan because we will get to see lots of young guys play and the team will battle... but at the end of the day we will be getting a great pick.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

They will lose a lot of close games. Will finish bottom 5, as I am sure with Bedard on the menu as a few teams will not push to be better to get the prize.

There may be a better prize available.

 

[Chadstudsky]

Until proven otherwise, our powerplay still sucks, we have one of the weakest goalie tandems in the league, one of if not the most inexperienced defense in the league, and a mentality vocalized by coaches and management that we aren't looking to win games and sacrifice player development.

We're in the lower half of the bottom tier of teams, and will finish anywhere from 26th to 32nd IMO.

The positive is that it will be a fun year to watch, follow and stat watch junior/NCAA/Europe guys, and watch some offense first 6-4 hockey games.

I guess to answer your question best case is overcoming that prediction and finishing between 22 and 25, but I think that will only happen if other teams get hit with bad luck

 

[Chili]

Who could believe a team could go from the Stanley Cup final to 32nd place?

I just heard on 690 that Joel Edmundson has a lower body injury and is out indefinitely as well as others players who are banged up. How much will the Young players progress is a big question. The roster that starts the season won`t be the same by the end of the year so who knows where they`ll end up.

 

[rickthegoon]

Edmundston, Anderson, Monahan and also Capt. Suzuki out for at least 2 weeks . Good things we got 74 players at the camp

 

[Ezpz]

Who could believe a team could go from the Stanley Cup final to 32nd place?

I just heard on 690 that Joel Edmundson has a lower body injury and is out indefinitely as well as others players who are banged up. How much will the Young players progress is a big question. The roster that starts the season won`t be the same by the end of the year so who knows where they`ll end up.

If they lost their their #1 goalie, #1 dman, #4 dman, a top six winger, their #2C, their #3C, and replacing all said players with nobody (well, Mike Hoffman)--then in season trading their remaining top 4 dman, first line winger, second line winger, bottom pairing D who was getting top pairing minutes as well as injuries to their #2 goalie and basically every forward at some point minus Suzuki; it would be believable.

Now our roster is even worse than the previous season and it's not like we had a young roster, we have a bunch of vets who are aging negatively playing key roles on the team. Sure the young guys could step up but not to the point that this isn't a basement team as it will be offset by the continuing decline of Gally, Savard, Armia, and Hoffman.

The one bright spot, if you can call it that, is that Arizona and Chicago are infinitely worse than last season roster-wise. We have little chance to finish dead last again despite having a terrible roster. The one thing going for us is Chicago haven't traded Patrick Kane yet, who could steal some games.

 

[abo9]

Best case scenario?

I think Habs have a realistic chance of being above the following teams in the standings:

- Chicago
- Arizona
- Philadelphia
- Seattle
- San Jose
- Anaheim

And in the best case scenario, I think they can be better than the Islanders if the Isles continue to downgrade.

Teams like Detroit, Buffalo and New Jersey should be comfortably above, but they're not proven so also a possibility.

Add a team that falters randomly.

I think in the best of best of worlds, Habs can finish 12th last.

21st is my extremely best case scenario.

I expect bottom 5