Speculation: What would you pay Larkin on an extension?

[kliq]

Hertl is 28 with a November birthday
Larkin will be a free agent on his 27th birthday (almost exactly)

16 months is not a big factor in free agency. Both will be looking for their big payday since they're not gonna get another big contract again.

We know with Larkin that he will try to win regardless of how much he makes, I don't think money is the motivating factor like it is with Erne, Namestnikov, or Mantha. I'd also like to see Bert re-signed since he's also got a winning mentality.

I think the other big factor here is if Stevie signs some help or not this summer. I doubt D-Boss wants to lose his entire career. If it was me, I'd Hossa and sign a cheap one year contract to chase the Cup. But that's me.

I'm talking about Kadri. My bad, I didn't specify which one when I quoted your post.

 

[Shaman464]

I would want to see one more year of consistent play. He's having a good offensive season in a year where offense is crazy. The shooting percentage that is nearly double his career and 50% higher than his previous high is a major red flag. Even then his production isn't in what I would call the clear playoff team top line center production. At this point a I wouldn't go over 5 years and 7 million.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I'd be shocked if Dylan Larkin takes anything less then 8x9 he's already a PPG player this year and is only getting better.

Agreed.

I can definitely see him taking 8x8 as a hometown discount. Honestly, now that I think about it... he could be getting his agent to push to 9.583m. Get him the Zach Werenski money.

 

[kliq]

I would want to see one more year of consistent play. He's having a good offensive season in a year where offense is crazy. The shooting percentage that is nearly double his career and 50% higher than his previous high is a major red flag. Even then his production isn't in what I would call the clear playoff team top line center production. At this point a I wouldn't go over 5 years and 7 million.

So you don’t sign him then, because there is zero chance he signs 5x7.

 

[14ari13]

Trim the money off of Bertuzzi’s contract, Fabbri’s contract, etc.

Dylan Larkin at 8x8 is a discount, even if you don’t think it is.

That IS trimming a million off our cap.

What contract do you think Tomas Hertl takes? Because you’ll have to add some to that for Larkin because Larkin is a better player

Don't ask me, I have no idea. I don't know how much the highest players get paid nor how much 1C gets paid. I will have to go and check it out 1st.
I just believe Yzerman will try to get some (0,5-1 M) discount.

 

[Henkka]

I dont think Hertl is held in the same regard as Larkin around the league at all.

Hertl plays a lot more in defensive situations than Larkin.

Larkin has been let go all offence last 2 seasons.

Last 2 seasons:
Tomas Hertl, 92 games, 40+40 = 80 points (0.87 ppg) 19:14min, Faceoffs 54,6% (Offensive Zone start% 50,4%) PK avg IT 1:32
Dylan Larkin, 81 games, 28+32 = 60 points ( 0.74 ppg) 19:41min, Faceoffs 51.7% (Offensive Zone start% 59,2%) PK avg IT 0:12

Hertl is better player in my eyes. More defensive situations + better production.

It would be nice dynamic duo, if Larkin still goes more offensive and Hertl takes tougher situations. Good combo for the team.

 

[Shaman464]

So you don’t sign him then, because there is zero chance he signs 5x7.

He's riding a nearly 65% ozone start rate, and a shooting percentage that is very likely unsustainable for him. He's not a safe bet for a huge contract until he can show he can follow it up with another good year next year. Until then, he should be paid based on what his general play has been over the last couple seasons, which is far lower than what he would get if this season were taken by itself.

 

[SirloinUB]

Anything less than 8 mill should probably be seen as a win

 

[newfy]

He's riding a nearly 65% ozone start rate, and a shooting percentage that is very likely unsustainable for him. He's not a safe bet for a huge contract until he can show he can follow it up with another good year next year. Until then, he should be paid based on what his general play has been over the last couple seasons, which is far lower than what he would get if this season were taken by itself.

You think hes only worth a 900K a year raise after the season hes having? Lol okkkkk

 

[19 for president]

My fear with Larkin is that his game is largely based around his skating ability and a pretty good but not elite shot. And 8 year deal takes him until 34. There is a high probability that his game will not age well, because skating is usually one of the first things to go with players. This is obviously made worse by injury which Larks has been lucky to avoid thus far (leg/back), but is always a potential.

8x8 at his current production is a good deal and I really think a lot of his increase this year is due to our much improved defense from an outlet pass perspective. Larkin is a N/S guy so his strength is 5 on 5 offensive and transition offense. So I'm less concerned about shooting % and whether or not a points increase is sustainable for him, because I don't see our D getting worse there. I think he will continue to produce into his early 30s. I just worry about Larkin once the skating falls off. This is also my fear about going into our post rebuild years with Larkin as our #1 center, I just don't see an extended peak for him (hope I'm wrong!). I'd want someone equal or better on the team at center if we want to ensure a decent cup window.

 

[Shaman464]

You think hes only worth a 900K a year raise after the season hes having? Lol okkkkk

Do you read before you comment or just go for it? Because I gave a ton of reasons why “the season he’s having” could smoke and mirrors. How many teams have gotten burned paying a player for one seasons worth of good numbers? Because spoiler alert there have quite a few.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Do you read before you comment or just go for it? Because I gave a ton of reasons why “the season he’s having” could smoke and mirrors. How many teams have gotten burned paying a player for one seasons worth of good numbers? Because spoiler alert there have quite a few.

But it's not one good season. He did much of what he's doing this year in 17-18 and in 18-19. He fell off in the next two years because the Wings defense collapsed from not really that good to HOLY f*** BURN IT WITH FIRE.

He went 63 in 82 and 73 in 76 and then had two down years where the team fell completely apart. Larkin has a pretty extensive sample size. Why are people acting like this is a contract year fluke bump?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

He's riding a nearly 65% ozone start rate, and a shooting percentage that is very likely unsustainable for him. He's not a safe bet for a huge contract until he can show he can follow it up with another good year next year. Until then, he should be paid based on what his general play has been over the last couple seasons, which is far lower than what he would get if this season were taken by itself.

Also... his pay if it were just based on this year (37 in 37, so PPG center?) would probably have 8 digits in it. So, 8x8 would be a safe bet for what his general play has been over the last few seasons. Unless you're going to somehow try to say "your offense went down in a year where we were so garbage that we had to run a 1-2-2 every game to not get boatraced" and use that as some kind of argument as to why Larkin should take a pay cut. He did what the Wings wanted him to do and his numbers suffered because the team was really really bad.

 

[Retire91]

Larkin deserves a great NHL salary he is an accomplished player that proves it again and agian. But I do think this contract is high stakes for us if he wants 1A money.

Larkin plays 1A for us but in reality I think he is a 1B or maybe even 2A comparatively. 8X8 sounds about right just hope his game can hold up I know he is a speedster and speed doesn't always last. I just hope his contract stays in the 1B to 2A category. I think before the rebuild is over he is not going to be our number 1 center. I would love to see him be able to play down the depth chart and I hope we don't have a crippling 1A contract on the second line. No disrespect to the player this is a business opinion. He is awesome and thank goodness Holland found him.

 

[NickH8]

My fear with Larkin is that his game is largely based around his skating ability and a pretty good but not elite shot. And 8 year deal takes him until 34. There is a high probability that his game will not age well, because skating is usually one of the first things to go with players. This is obviously made worse by injury which Larks has been lucky to avoid thus far (leg/back), but is always a potential.

8x8 at his current production is a good deal and I really think a lot of his increase this year is due to our much improved defense from an outlet pass perspective. Larkin is a N/S guy so his strength is 5 on 5 offensive and transition offense. So I'm less concerned about shooting % and whether or not a points increase is sustainable for him, because I don't see our D getting worse there. I think he will continue to produce into his early 30s. I just worry about Larkin once the skating falls off. This is also my fear about going into our post rebuild years with Larkin as our #1 center, I just don't see an extended peak for him (hope I'm wrong!). I'd want someone equal or better on the team at center if we want to ensure a decent cup window.

I don't have a crystal ball but it'd be smart to say "we've probably got 4-6 years of 1C quality Larkin. We need to start looking for our next 1C now instead of scrambling when Larkin is aged."
That's also not to say Larkin won't be a quality player still when he's 33, which is why I'm comfortable giving him 8x8. He'll just quickly become a scapegoat if a slowed down Larkin is still being forced to be the 1C.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

He's riding a nearly 65% ozone start rate, and a shooting percentage that is very likely unsustainable for him. He's not a safe bet for a huge contract until he can show he can follow it up with another good year next year. Until then, he should be paid based on what his general play has been over the last couple seasons, which is far lower than what he would get if this season were taken by itself.

Yeah, that's not how it works.

"I know you scored at a 40 goal pace last year, but you were only scoring at a 20 goal pace in the historically bad season Detroit had 2 years ago so we're only going to offer you a 500k raise. And I know as captain you want max term but we're pretty non-commital, so here's 5 years max, because we expect you to be way worse after age 33."

That's a good way to have your star player walk.

Here's a list of top cap hits at the center position. Educate yourself.
NHL Rankings

With the way Larkin is playing this year he squarely belongs to be the 10th to 15th highest paid center in the league.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Larkin deserves a great NHL salary he is an accomplished player that proves it again and agian. But I do think this contract is high stakes for us if he wants 1A money.

Larkin plays 1A for us but in reality I think he is a 1B or maybe even 2A comparatively. 8X8 sounds about right just hope his game can hold up I know he is a speedster and speed doesn't always last. I just hope his contract stays in the 1B to 2A category. I think before the rebuild is over he is not going to be our number 1 center. I would love to see him be able to play down the depth chart and I hope we don't have a crippling 1A contract on the second line. No disrespect to the player this is a business opinion. He is awesome and thank goodness Holland found him.

Larkin has the same number of even strength points as McDavid right now which is 5th amongst centers. One less than Kadri and 5 less than Draisaitl. If Detroit had a halfway competent powerplay he'd be top 20 in scoring in the league.

I've doubted Larkin in the past but he's not playing 1a/1B center for us this year. He's solidly moving into the territory of Bergeron, OReilly and other point per game 1st line 2-way centers.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yeah, that's not how it works.

"I know you scored at a 40 goal pace last year, but you were only scoring at a 20 goal pace in the historically bad season Detroit had 2 years ago so we're only going to offer you a 500k raise. And I know as captain you want max term but we're pretty non-commital, so here's 5 years max, because we expect you to be way worse after age 33."

That's a good way to have your star player walk.

Here's a list of top cap hits at the center position. Educate yourself.
NHL Rankings

With the way Larkin is playing this year he squarely belongs to be the 10th to 15th highest paid center in the league.

This actually reminds me of little snippet from a story in my favorite book (culled reports, short stories, and otherwise about baseball "The New Baseball Reader"). This one in particular was about Bobo Newsom who pitched for the Tigers. He was awesome one year and then lost 20 games the next. The Tigers responded to the down year by trying to cut his salary 66%. He held out and got released and eventually set the precedent that the union and/or league rules wouldn't let a team tank a player's salary after a bad year. My favorite part of it was that the league actually voided the contract of 90 Tigers minor leagues that same season. Bobo was a hard headed guy, so his argument against "you lost 20 games, we gotta cut your pay" was "You lost 90 of the owner's players last year and you're not taking a paycut."

 

[Shaman464]

Yeah, that's not how it works.

"I know you scored at a 40 goal pace last year, but you were only scoring at a 20 goal pace in the historically bad season Detroit had 2 years ago so we're only going to offer you a 500k raise. And I know as captain you want max term but we're pretty non-commital, so here's 5 years max, because we expect you to be way worse after age 33."

That's a good way to have your star player walk.

Here's a list of top cap hits at the center position. Educate yourself.
NHL Rankings

With the way Larkin is playing this year he squarely belongs to be the 10th to 15th highest paid center in the league.

The way he’s playing this season. With a massively inflated shooting percentage after two very underwhelming years. Let him have one more good season before we break the bank on him. Till then he’s having a very ROR career so give him ROR money.

 

[Winger98]

The way he’s playing this season. With a massively inflated shooting percentage after two very underwhelming years. Let him have one more good season before we break the bank on him. Till then he’s having a very ROR career so give him ROR money.

Which would be a little over $8m a year with today's higher cap versus what it was when ROR signed. 7/$56ish million? Wouldn't hate it. adding another year to it isn't a big deal, either. Maybe give him a NMC to start and then use the extra year to pull back that NMC to some sort of limited NTC the last few years.

Regardless, I don't think Larkin is going to be a hard sign and that the deal will hover around the 8x8 area.

 

[Shaman464]

Which would be a little over $8m a year with today's higher cap versus what it was when ROR signed. 7/$56ish million? Wouldn't hate it. adding another year to it isn't a big deal, either. Maybe give him a NMC to start and then use the extra year to pull back that NMC to some sort of limited NTC the last few years.

Regardless, I don't think Larkin is going to be a hard sign and that the deal will hover around the 8x8 area.

I’d still go sightly lower, in terms of length and dollars if this year is an anomaly. If he backs this year up with a similar year next year, I’d say try to maximize term for sure. My main point is that there are red flags this year about his production, and it could be lower going forward. Not as bad as previous ones, but still something that shouldn’t be outside consideration.

 

[newfy]

Do you read before you comment or just go for it? Because I gave a ton of reasons why “the season he’s having” could smoke and mirrors. How many teams have gotten burned paying a player for one seasons worth of good numbers? Because spoiler alert there have quite a few.

Hes had another season where hes for sure played at this level, another couple where hes played above a 60 point pace. Now hes 25, having a career year and you think hes only worth a 900k a year raise?

Even if this is his career year and he settles into a 70ish point a year center (which is a pretty easy assumption), hes going to easily be worth a couple million a year more than he makes now, on a contract that will only take him to like 32 or 33.

I read before I comment, it just usually works out that I'm replying to your horrible takes constantly. This will be his 2nd season of roughly point per game production. How many of those does a 25 year old have to have before its not smoke and mirror?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I’d still go sightly lower, in terms of length and dollars if this year is an anomaly. If he backs this year up with a similar year next year, I’d say try to maximize term for sure. My main point is that there are red flags this year about his production, and it could be lower going forward. Not as bad as previous ones, but still something that shouldn’t be outside consideration.

There aren’t red flags about his production. When they had any kind of talent on the back end, 63 and 73 points in full seasons. Then, they had the worst damn defense in hockey and he fell back. Now, they added the barest amount of talent and he’s having a good year again.

You are seeing red flags because you’re looking through red colored glasses.

 

[Snuggs]

Somewhere around that 8x8 deal. Anything under 8 million needs to be seen as a win, anything over 9 gets real iffy.

 

[kliq]

He's riding a nearly 65% ozone start rate, and a shooting percentage that is very likely unsustainable for him. He's not a safe bet for a huge contract until he can show he can follow it up with another good year next year. Until then, he should be paid based on what his general play has been over the last couple seasons, which is far lower than what he would get if this season were taken by itself.

Regardless of what you feel or the stats that you are using, this just isn’t how it works in the NHL. Zero chance Larkin signs for what you want to give him. On the open market he will get 9mil or more. Again, look at Hayes as an example of an overpaid UFA. UFA just get overpaid, it’s simply a reality.