Speculation: What would you pay Larkin on an extension?

[Wayne Primeau]

"Dylan Larkin has elevated his offensive game to a new level this season"


Larkin is producing at the best rates of his career in basically every offensive category this season. He's taking a ton of shots and has been one of the best offensive play-drivers in the league. For my money, he's a legit 1C.

What do you pay him on an extension? You have no choice but to extend him, right? You'd think he might take less (hometown discount) ...

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

No more than Zibanejad. Preferably less. I’m hoping he’d take 8 mil 8 years.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

I feel like he could probably get 9 on the open market. Might take 8 to stay.

 

[kliq]

No more than Zibanejad. Preferably less. I’m hoping he’d take 8 mil 8 years.

Exactly what I was going to write….8x8.

 

[Go Wings]

I feel like he could probably get 9 on the open market. Might take 8 to stay.

Nobody is paying Dillon Larkin 9 million on the open market that is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

Nobody is paying Dillon Larkin 9 million on the open market that is absolutely ridiculous.

Dylan Larkin might, and have you seen the contracts that are tossed out anymore? Jackie Hughes getting 8 mil on potential alone, Brady Tkachuk is at 8 as well. GM's be crazy.

 

[Go Wings]

Dylan Larkin might, and have you seen the contracts that are tossed out anymore? Jackie Hughes getting 8 mil on potential alone, Brady Tkachuk is at 8 as well. GM's be crazy.

Name 1 team with the cap space that would pay him that much as UFA?
As much as I like Larkin he hasn't shown anything close to 9 million a season.

 

[WesNichols14]

Name 1 team with the cap space that would pay him that much as UFA?
As much as I like Larkin he hasn't shown anything close to 9 million a season.

Seattle, Columbus, and Buffalo. I could see any of these teams offering 9+

 

[Go Wings]

Seattle, Columbus, and Buffalo. I could see any of these teams offering 9+

Columbus maybe if they get rid of Laine.
Buffalo no, they are still paying 9 million per for Jeff Skinner.
Seattle no, they are building a team from the ground up.

Larkin is not worth 9 million.

 

[kliq]

Columbus maybe if they get rid of Laine.
Buffalo no, they are still paying 9 million per for Jeff Skinner.
Seattle no, they are building a team from the ground up.

Larkin is not worth 9 million.

I dont think its far fetched at all, in fact I think its likely. Philly paid Kevin Hayes 7.1mil, Buffalo paid Skinner 9mil, Hughes just got 8mil etc etc. Every year players get overpaid.

I think what people tend to forget is its not that the half the league is going to offer a player that, it just takes 1 team. I could see Philly paying him 9, especially if Giroux isnt re-signed.

If he's "worth" it? Thats a completely different question then "will he get it".

 

[Reddwit]

Seattle, Columbus, and Buffalo. I could see any of these teams offering 9+

Disagree. Larkin would be targeted by up-and-coming teams or “almost there” teams before rebuilding teams. For example, both Colorado and NYR are rumored to be hungry for long-term 2C/1B options and they have the GM IQ to rearrange capital to make that possible. Likewise, if Boston is still afloat next year, that makes a Krejci replacement possible. Or Anaheim and New Jersey looking to take the next step. Wouldn’t be the first time an unexpected team comes out of nowhere to win the bid.

But this discussion seems kind of moot since Larkin would be traded before he reaches UFA. This isn’t Tampa. Yzerman can’t just say “lol you go out there and see if you can find a better situation” like he did with Stamkos. Larkin likely would find an ostensibly better situation elsewhere.

Detroit’s Hail Mary, however, is the ability to offer that 8th year. 8 x 8 still beats 9 x 7. Add in the uncertainty regarding Detroit’s future and I think we’re looking at 8.5 x 8.

 

[lilidk]

It's time for Yzerman give long contracts 8x8 whoud be great for Larkin.
Zadina should get new contract this year, wonder what is it, probably bridge 2-3 years

 

[Gniwder]

 

[Go Wings]

I dont think its far fetched at all, in fact I think its likely. Philly paid Kevin Hayes 7.1mil, Buffalo paid Skinner 9mil, Hughes just got 8mil etc etc. Every year players get overpaid.

I think what people tend to forget is its not that the half the league is going to offer a player that, it just takes 1 team. I could see Philly paying him 9, especially if Giroux isnt re-signed.

If he's "worth" it? Thats a completely different question then "will he get it".

If those teams want a center they can sign Nazim Kadri who is 5th in point this year and is a UFA in the offseason.

Players do get overpaid for sure but Larkin doesn't have the pedigree to make 9 million on the open market yet.

 

[Oddbob]

I'm fine with 8 years at 7.5-8.5. Dylan brings a lot more than just offence, with his high motor, leadership and good two way game. If for example he got 8X9 it wouldn't bother me that much, as there are far worse guys you could spend that money on. Skinner got 9 on the open market and he is basically only an offence guy when he got the contract, and low offence since he got it.

 

[Oddbob]

If those teams want a center they can sign Nazim Kadri who is 5th in point this year and is a UFA in the offseason.

Players do get overpaid for sure but Larkin doesn't have the pedigree to make 9 million on the open market yet.

As @kliq pointed out, Hayes got 7.1 and Larkin is much better than Hayes.

 

[Killerjas]

5 years at 8 mil

 

[DTR]

If Hertl hits the open market, his floor is 7x8. Larkin would get that easily if he hit the open market.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

As @kliq pointed out, Hayes got 7.1 and Larkin is much better than Hayes.

Dumb GMs were giving away dumb amounts of money before covid. Yzerman isn’t a dumb GM.

Like I said, I’d look at Zibanejad as a comparable. Add point to that list.

 

[Henkka]

It will be less than any formula is suggesting.

It's Yzerman negoating this, and it will set the Tampa-style TEAM STANDARD.

It's the Yzerman-STANDARD, from Detroit days, when the highest-paid leaders left money on the table to get Brett Hull + Cup.

Everybody will be taking less than market value. And that's the biggest Weapon in Salary Cap world.

Just wait and see.

 

[Ishad]

Dumb GMs were giving away dumb amounts of money before covid. Yzerman isn’t a dumb GM.

Like I said, I’d look at Zibanejad as a comparable. Add point to that list.

What’s a bigger dumb GM move? Overpaying Larkin by a million or two or having pius suter become your #1 c?


I don’t think it would come to that because I would guess Larkin is the player most likely to take a hometown discount

 

[Stony Curtis]

What’s a bigger dumb GM move? Overpaying Larkin by a million or two or having pius suter become your #1 c?


I don’t think it would come to that because I would guess Larkin is the player most likely to take a hometown discount

Are those the only choices? Because a GM who left himself no options other than those two choices could certainly be considered dumb. SY is not dumb.

 

[kliq]

If those teams want a center they can sign Nazim Kadri who is 5th in point this year and is a UFA in the offseason.

Players do get overpaid for sure but Larkin doesn't have the pedigree to make 9 million on the open market yet.

I think you very much underestimate what a player can get on the open market. Again, all I have to say is Kevin freaking Hayes got 7.1 million, it just takes one bad GM, it just takes one team.

 

[kliq]

Dumb GMs were giving away dumb amounts of money before covid. Yzerman isn’t a dumb GM.

Like I said, I’d look at Zibanejad as a comparable. Add point to that list.

The context of the conversation that you are replying to isnt that Larkin will get 9mil from Yzerman, its that he could get 9mil from someone on the open market.

Im not sure I get your point about Zibanejad though, his extension pays him 8.5, most here are saying Larkin would get 8 from the Wings. Are you agreeing with the consensus or disagreeing?

 

[Ishad]

Are those the only choices? Because a GM who left himself no options other than those two choices could certainly be considered dumb. SY is not dumb.

True. He could just dip into the massive pool of #1 c’s that are ufa’ or available for trade.