Value of: What would Calgary Flames offer for the Sens 7th pick?

[ManwithNoIdentity]

You can have Holl?

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I think the Flames have 2 pieces the Sens could use. One being Rasmus Andersson. The other being Markstrom. Taking back Korpisalo and sending Markstrom for #7 is something I'd do. Andersson for #7 is something I'd do. I don't see what else we have that really would be worth that pick except Wolf who isn't available.

Sens are not giving away the 7th without getting another decently high pick. We haven’t had a proper 1st rounder since 2020.

I don’t really see much that can be done between the two teams that doesn’t involve #7 and #9.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Lets just work something out with Markstrom & F NJ

 

[SpezDispenser]

Ahahaha 7th ov and korpisalo for markstrom. Zero chance

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Sens are not giving away the 7th without getting another decently high pick. We haven’t had a proper 1st rounder since 2020.

I don’t really see much that can be done between the two teams that doesn’t involve #7 and #9.

You just drafted 10th 2 years ago, you spoiled brat!

 

[Gil Gunderson]

You just drafted 10th 2 years ago, you spoiled brat!

We don’t talk about that one.

 

[Ouroboros]

There are no reasonable circumstances under which the Senators can trade the 7th pick.

They traded their 1st rounders in 2022 and 2023 and got close to nothing out of those deals. The guy they drafted in 2021 is a complete write-off, and they have to forfeit either their 2025 or 2026 pick to the league for the Evgeni Dadonov fiasco.

Can't happen.

 

[madmike77]

Nothing crazy. The Flames are rebuilding. They need as many picks as they can get. They’re not going to go and blow draft/prospect capital on one pick.

 

[Double Dion]

There are no reasonable circumstances under which the Senators can trade the 7th pick.

They traded their 1st rounders in 2022 and 2023 and got close to nothing out of those deals. The guy they drafted in 2021 is a complete write-off, and they have to forfeit either their 2025 or 2026 pick to the league for the Evgeni Dadonov fiasco.

Can't happen.

I'm curious, does it have to be their own 1st round pick or just a 1st round pick? Do you or any other Sens fans know?

 

[Bond]

I'm curious, does it have to be their own 1st round pick or just a 1st round pick? Do you or any other Sens fans know?

I think if it was any pick then Boston's would already be forfeited

 

[Haatley]

The 28th to switch picks I imagine. Usually the going rate.

But doubt Ignila be there. Both Montreal and Utah high on him.

The cost to move up 2 picks is not another first. If anything it would be one of the 2nd round picks the Flames have at most.

 

[dgibb10]

History of picks 6-8 from 2010-2019

Studs: Hughes Seider Cozens Tkachuk Keller Werenski Nylander Monahan Zibenejad Scheifele Coutourier

Top 3D/Top 6F: Middlestadt Zacha Provorov Nurse Risto Lindholm Dumba Skinner

Middle 6: Connolly Virtanen Zadina

Middle 6 developing: Boqvist Glass

NHLer: Burmistrov Fleury Pouliot

Unknown: Broberg

Busts: Nylander Andersson

37% chance of getting an absolute stud
63% chance of getting a top 3 dman/top 6 forward
and almost everyone turns into an NHLer

The value of a pick like this at 3 years 1 mill, then 4 years of dirt cheap RFA control (which you can make 11 years of control if you play it well) is so incredibly large.

Trading it for 2 years of a 35 year old goalie would go down as one of the dumbest moves in a long time.

Surely ottawa has learned their lesson after the Debrincat and Chychrun fiascos though.

 

[Voight]

I'll understand them drafting Iginla if hes BPA at the time but might be better not to. Thats a lot of pressure for the kid.

 

[Double Dion]

History of picks 6-8 from 2010-2019

Hughes Seider Cozens Tkachuk Keller Werenski Nylander Monahan Zibenejad Scheifele Coutourier
Middlestadt Zacha Provorov Nurse Risto Lindholm Dumba Skinner
Connolly Virtanen Zadina
Boqvist Glass
Burmistrov Fleury Pouliot
Broberg
Nylander Andersson

37% chance of getting an absolute stud
63% chance of getting a top 3 dman/top 6 forward
and almost everyone turns into an NHLer

The value of a pick like this at 3 years 1 mill, then 4 years of dirt cheap RFA control (which you can make 11 years of control if you play it well) is so incredibly large.

Trading it for 2 years of a 35 year old goalie would go down as one of the dumbest moves in a long time.

Surely ottawa has learned their lesson after the Debrincat and Chychrun fiascos though.

Might want to run that math again. I don't disagree with your point overall. But you have it as 100% chance to get a top flight NHLer. Brett Connolly, Alex Burmistrov, Derrick Pouliot, Jake Virtanen, Haydn Fleury, Alex Nylander, Cody Glass, Lias Andersson, Zadina ect off the top of my head.

 

[dgibb10]

Might want to run that math again. I don't disagree with your point overall. But you have it as 100% chance to get a top flight NHLer. Brett Connolly, Alex Burmistrov, Derrick Pouliot, Jake Virtanen, Haydn Fleury, Alex Nylander, Cody Glass, Lias Andersson, Zadina ect off the top of my head.

11/30 are studs by my estimation: 37% (Top row)
19/30 are top 3 dman/top 6 forwards: 63% (Top 2 rows)
Virtually all made some contribution at the NHL level

 

[Double Dion]

11/30 are studs by my estimation: 37% (Top row)
19/30 are top 3 dman/top 6 forwards: 63% (Top 2 rows)
Virtually all made some contribution at the NHL level

Ah, you're including studs and top 6 forwards top 3 d in the same category. I think you also are being pretty generous in your estimations on players. I don't know many people who would have Dumba, Nurse and Ristolainen as top 3 defensemen or Monahan as a stud or even a top 6 forward.

 

[dgibb10]

Ah, you're including studs and top 6 forwards top 3 d in the same category. I think you also are being pretty generous in your estimations on players. I don't know many people who would have Dumba, Nurse and Ristolainen as top 3 defensemen or Monahan as a stud or even a top 6 forward.

The oilers made a very bad decision on the contract, but you cannot name 45 RHD better than him. He also has played just under 23 minutes a night in his career.
Risto was viewed as that by multiple teams (see the large contracts and massive trade haul he got), and he again plays 23 minutes a night in his career (24 during his ELC+RFA years)
Dumba is a 20:30 a night dman over his career, peaking as a top pairing guy.

If you tell me I can find a guy to play 23 minutes a night, and pay him 900k for 3 years and then bridge him at a bargain, sign me up all day.

Monahan over his ELC+RFA played 18+ minutes a night at a high scoring pace. Again abolutely fantastic value at the bargain contract you can get if you bridge. Although he may be moved down to top 6.

 

[Double Dion]

The oilers made a very bad decision on the contract, but you cannot name 45 RHD better than him. He also has played just under 23 minutes a night in his career.
Risto was viewed as that by multiple teams (see the large contracts and massive trade haul he got), and he again plays 23 minutes a night in his career (24 during his ELC+RFA years)
Dumba is a 20:30 a night dman over his career, peaking as a top pairing guy.

If you tell me I can find a guy to play 23 minutes a night, and pay him 900k for 3 years and then bridge him at a bargain, sign me up all day.

Monahan over his ELC+RFA played 18+ minutes a night at a high scoring pace. Again abolutely fantastic value at the bargain contract you can get if you bridge. Although he may be moved down to top 6.

Nurse played 21 and change this season. The Oilers had 0 top 4 defensemen before Bouchard rising and the Ekholm add. He gets absolutely caved as a 2nd pairing guy. Your argument is reductionist. It would be like me saying Backlund is better than Hischier and Hughes because he plays more minutes. It's a terrible argument. My eyes tell me he's a #5 defenseman. Advanced stats tell you he's a #6. You can't be legitimately serious you think he's a top 3 defenseman. We disagree sometimes, but I don't think you're that stupid.

Dumba was never very good, neither was Ristolainen. Again, you can't be serious with these guys being top 3 defensemen. It's just silly. Yes, I can name 45 LHD (Nurse is left handed, not sure why you think he's a RD) who are better than him. I can name 75 or 80. Heck the Flames had 3 this season and we are a bottom 10 team.

 

[dgibb10]

Nurse played 21 and change this season. The Oilers had 0 top 4 defensemen before Bouchard rising and the Ekholm add. He gets absolutely caved as a 2nd pairing guy. Your argument is reductionist. It would be like me saying Backlund is better than Hischier and Hughes because he plays more minutes. It's a terrible argument. My eyes tell me he's a #5 defenseman. Advanced stats tell you he's a #6. You can't be legitimately serious you think he's a top 3 defenseman. We disagree sometimes, but I don't think you're that stupid.

Dumba was never very good, neither was Ristolainen. Again, you can't be serious with these guys being top 3 defensemen. It's just silly. Yes, I can name 45 LHD (Nurse is left handed, not sure why you think he's a RD) who are better than him. I can name 75 or 80. Heck the Flames had 3 this season and we are a bottom 10 team.

The oilers thought he was good enough to give 9.3 million dollars a year to. Whatever we think about that long term contract today, if a pick performs well enough to earn 9.3 million dollars, they're certainly worth a hell of a lot more than 900k.

Darnell Nurse is not elite, but he is a quality second pair dman. If he hit the UFA market today he'd get 5+ mill a year in a heartbeat and everyone knows that. If you told me I could get darnell nurse for 900k x 3 years I would pay multiple 1sts for it.

 

[Double Dion]

The oilers thought he was good enough to give 9.3 million dollars a year to. Whatever we think about that long term contract today, if a pick performs well enough to earn 9.3 million dollars, they're certainly worth a hell of a lot more than 900k.

Darnell Nurse is not elite, but he is a quality second pair dman. If he hit the UFA market today he'd get 5+ mill a year in a heartbeat and everyone knows that. If you told me I could get darnell nurse for 900k x 3 years I would pay multiple 1sts for it.

View attachment 883067

You're mixing correct things with false things. Using Jfresh cards shows you don't have a thorough understanding of analytics. JFresh cards show Jack Hughes as a 3rd line center. Nurse is 2 minuses away from setting an all time playoff record for worst plus minus. He's been surpassed by Brett Kulak in terms of quality minutes.

NHL GMs make mistakes all the time and Edmonton has arguably been the worst managed franchise of the past 15 years. Is Huberdeau a really good player? He makes even more than Nurse. Is Meier a really good player? He makes a lot of money too. I don't think you would find a lot of interest in Nurse at 5M. He's significantly worse than Zadorov who will likely command similar dough. 900k is a #7 defenseman. Yes there'd be interest in a #5 at that price.

Seriously though. Do you HONESTLY believe Nurse is a top 3 defenseman or are you just too invested in your argument to say you were wrong? I can't believe anyone would think that at this point. I guess it's possible you just haven't seen him play. You did think he was a RHD after all.

 

[dgibb10]

You're mixing correct things with false things. Using Jfresh cards shows you don't have a thorough understanding of analytics. JFresh cards show Jack Hughes as a 3rd line center. Nurse is 2 minuses away from setting an all time playoff record for worst plus minus. He's been surpassed by Brett Kulak in terms of quality minutes.

NHL GMs make mistakes all the time and Edmonton has arguably been the worst managed franchise of the past 15 years. Is Huberdeau a really good player? He makes even more than Nurse. Is Meier a really good player? He makes a lot of money too. I don't think you would find a lot of interest in Nurse at 5M. He's significantly worse than Zadorov who will likely command similar dough. 900k is a #7 defenseman. Yes there'd be interest in a #5 at that price.

Seriously though. Do you HONESTLY believe Nurse is a top 3 defenseman or are you just too invested in your argument to say you were wrong? I can't believe anyone would think that at this point. I guess it's possible you just haven't seen him play. You did think he was a RHD after all.

Actually the Jfresh cards have Jack Hughes in the 99th, 98th, and 96th%iles in WAR over the last 3 years. But cool lie you had there.

Huberdeau was an excellent player with 115 points that is why he made that money yes.

Timo Meier was and is an excellent player yes.

Are you talking about this specific playoffs? Because overall, if they made the same money I'd take Nurse over Zadorov.

You call nurse a number 5 but Zadorov has ACTUALLY played the number 5 dman role on every team he's been on for a decade now on 5 different teams

 

[Double Dion]

Actually the Jfresh cards have Jack Hughes in the 99th, 98th, and 96th%iles in WAR over the last 3 years. But cool lie you had there.

Huberdeau was an excellent player with 115 points that is why he made that money yes.

Timo Meier was and is an excellent player yes.

Are you talking about this specific playoffs? Because if they made the same money I'd take Nurse over Zadorov.

You call nurse a number 5 but Zadorov has ACTUALLY played the number 5 dman role on every team he's been on for a decade now on 5 different teams

Oops. No point in posting with you. I see you.

 

[dgibb10]

Oops. No point in posting with you. I see you.

A) that part of the card is literally just TOI
B) yes, jack hughes at age 18 in his rookie year wasn't good, so seems quite accurate
C) rookie jack hughes literally WAS the 3C in NJD behind Hischier and Zajac

5 different teams over the course of 10 years have all decided Nikita Zadorov is a 5D.

 

[Mac Attack]

The last 30 games he was arguably our best defenseman. Hanifin being the other candidate. I don't think brutal is an exaggeration though for the first 50 games. He had 1 goal despite heavy Ozone deployment and was getting burned pretty regularly. Bear in mind I'm rating him as brutal compared to top pairing defensemen. He was pretty good compared to Ohotiuk.


A 4 year cap dump. That's a tough contract to move. I'd want 7th straight up or adding in a 3rd or something.

Yeah giving them Markstrom for Korpi and #7 seems like a reasonable base line. Could retain a little on Markstrom if they wanted even more space to make their team better.

 

[Double Dion]

Yeah giving them Markstrom for Korpi and #7 seems like a reasonable base line. Could retain a little on Markstrom if they wanted even more space to make their team better.

I think we'd have to retain on Markstrom for 7 even with the Korpisalo dump coming back. Ottawa makes sense for him because of the high dangers they give up. They could also use some of the leadership he brings.