What will the long term results of this retool be? (Next 5 years)

[LetsGoBooze]

Need to extend the window out to the entirety of the Thomas/Kyrou contracts. If you give us a 7 year window i think we'll be competitive in that window and make the WCF atleast once. It may take a re-tooling of the re-tool(Think our pivot after the initial Oshie, Berglund, EJ, Pietrangelo, Backes era), but at some point it will be up to the boys on how far we make it, as we will be a consistent and competitive playoff team.

 

[Brian39]

Army publicly said the prospect pool was full now. I’ll have to find the interview to find his exact words. He basically said they have replenished the organization from a prospect view point and now it’s going to the next phase of getting some into the NHL and building a team around them

Unless you are talking about another quote I'm unfamiliar with, here is what he said (the bolded is mine):

"Moving experienced players along for youth is way easier than moving youth along for experienced players. You have to accumulate as many puzzle pieces as you can, and then at some point you have to start making the puzzle. Right now I think what we've done is, we've accumulated enough assets now. ... We're getting in that team-building mode now where we expect to compete. If it's not fitting in with our puzzle, we have to move pieces along to find better fits."

If it turns out we aren't competitive this year, I don't see anything in that answer to suggest that building our puzzle couldn't involve moving the vets that aren't fitting for more futures assets.

Again, I know that Army is publicly setting the expectation that we are competing. But I'm not convinced that the public sales pitch aligns with the internal expectations. We didn't sell out the home opener. They haven't sold out the Saturday game against the Leafs that is less than 3 weeks away. They have every incentive to sell optimism right now even if internally they expect to fall a couple notches short and sell at the deadline.

Taking his statements at face value, I'm certainly not convinced that the front office is so married to a vision of competing now that they wouldn't switch gears if the team underperforms those expectations. And again, Army's tenure has a public expiration date. If internal expectations are to complete for playoffs (and ownership shares those expectations) then Army very well may lose some sway behind the scenes this summer if we miss the playoffs by 15+ points.

2022/23 was a 'win now' year until it very much wasn't and we sold 5 rentals at the deadline.

I am pretty far from convinced that the plan is to simply let Leddy, Faulk. Saad, Binner, Faksa, and Joseph simply play out their contracts and walk. I think it is much more likely than not that at least a couple of them are moved in the next 18 months and moving guys like that generally means you are getting futures in return. Army might do what he's done in the past and flip those futures for 'current' help, but that doesn't mean we're just done accumulating assets.

 

[Frenzy31]

Would you toss large Money at Marmer this off season. He likely doesn’t extend in Toronto.

 

[LGB]

I'd guess that in the next 2-3 seasons if we catch our stride, its going to come from Parayko's pair being a 2nd pair. Broberg is pretty ideal for the fit assuming he contiunes his play due to his skating/size. I think that's an extremely good 2nd pairing. The question becomes how do we get that pairing to a point to where it's a very high end 2nd pairing and have a good 1st pair that deserves to be a 1st pair.

We'd need to make a huge acquisition or have Lindstein/Jiricek hit their top end outcomes and very quickly. Most likely though I think we're going to have to put together 3 quality pairings since we won't have that 1 great pairing. I think Lindstein can be half of a good 2nd pairing soon, and I hope Kessel has a good 2nd year and establishes himself as a quality NHL defenseman. Hopefully Faulk can also remain a quality D.

 

[TheDizee]

Full rebuild until the plagues and dead cap is relieved from the roster/payroll. We have a long ways to go.

 

[Majorityof1]

Would you toss large Money at Marmer this off season. He likely doesn’t extend in Toronto.

Not the level of large it would require. I like Marner a lot, but I don't think wingers are worth that top level money. Especially taking him to 35-36 years old.

 

[Frenzy31]

Not the level of large it would require. I like Marner a lot, but I don't think wingers are worth that top level money. Especially taking him to 35-36 years old.

We need one more dynamic forward. Thomas and Dvo will be fine at center. I like our prospects but we lack that high end, can creat his own chance player.

I figure we have two great players on good contracts, it would make sense to add 1 elite piece.

 

[Majorityof1]

We need one more dynamic forward. Thomas and Dvo will be fine at center. I like our prospects but we lack that high end, can creat his own chance player.

I figure we have two great players on good contracts, it would make sense to add 1 elite piece.

Dvorsky has one good game against men. Let's give it a minute to see if he will be a NHL top 6 C.

We also need an elite D which I would say is an even bigger need than C. Spending $14m on Marner doesn't fix that either.

If Marner wanted to come here for some reason, and took even a slight discount, maybe I consider it. But why would he come here except $$$. We aren't a contender now, he has no ties to area, no friends on team I know of. I don't want to win a bidding war for his services at a position that is not a pressing need.

 

[Brian39]

Would you toss large Money at Marmer this off season. He likely doesn’t extend in Toronto.

Not the type of money that I think it would take to convince him to come to St. Louis. Given where we are at as an organization, I think we would likely have to outbid a few other teams by a pretty noticeable margin. I think we'd probably have to make him the highest paid player in the league to come here and I wouldn't be willing to do that.

I'd be willing to make him the highest paid winger in the league. If $11.75M x 7 got it done then I would be comfortable doing that. A 7 year deal would take him through his age 34 season and I think that his game is going to age well. I think that having Thomas, Marner, and Buch in the top 6 is enough high end defensive skill to build 2 damn good forward lines with Kyrou and the rest of the developing young forwards. When Dvorsky is ready to jump to the NHL and work his way into the 2C role, I can't think of a better situation than to have Buch on his LW and either Marner or Kyrou on his RW. Marner wouldn't solve all the team's issues, but adding him for nothing but cap space would pretty much end the debate about whether the organization has enough high end forward talent to build a contender.

I just don't think it is realistic to think that he would entertain coming here for any less than $13M a year and even that offer would probably just be used by his agent to try and drive up the price elsewhere.

 

[Brian39]

Not the level of large it would require. I like Marner a lot, but I don't think wingers are worth that top level money. Especially taking him to 35-36 years old.

A 7 year max-term UFA deal would take him through his age 34 season. He would turn 35 in May of the final year. The term doesn't really scare me on a Marner deal. But I agree with you that the money it would take to get him here would be too much.

 

[Memento]

Dylan Holloway/Robert Thomas/Jordan Kyrou
Zachary Bolduc/Dalibor Dvorsky/Jimmy Snuggerud
Otto Stenberg/Matvei Korotky/Jake Neighbours
Juraj Pekarcik/Adam Jecho/Nikita Susuyev

Zach Dean, Pavel Buchnevich

Theo Lindstein/? (Adam Jiricek with a trade, maybe?)
Philip Broberg/David Jiricek
Lukas Fischer/Colton Parayko(?)

Michael Buchinger

Joel Hofer
Vadim Zherenko

This is what I think the roster could (hopefully?) look like in five years.

I have very high hopes for Pekarcik, Jecho, and the two Russians, admittedly (yes, I'm still very high on Susuyev, and now Korotky. Call me crazy if you want.), so I think they could all make this roster by five years. Obviously, Schenn would be off the roster in five years, and, in my opinion - just my opinion, of course; don't take it as gospel - Buchnevich could be slowing down a lot around that time and would likely have a much lesser role. Dean, I'd still keep as a valuable bottom six center. I don't think Toropchenko is on this team in five years.

I think that they would roll four scoring lines, much like Vegas does, so you could see the fourth lines and third lines get an equal number of minutes. First line has the speed aspect with Holloway and Kyrou, who should still be fast at thirty-one, along with Thomas facilitating them and Holloway providing a physical presence. Dvorsky centers a slower line with two exceptional triggermen in Bolduc and Snuggerud. Stenberg and Neighbours together would be a pair of pests, and Korotky centering them should be fun. Pekarcik facilitating Susuyev, who can score from anywhere, and Jecho as a huge presence in front of the goalie should be fascinating to see.

I still think we need an elite right-handed defenseman (maybe we could end up poaching Adam's brother, David from Columbus for a future first and a defensive prospect like Ralph - whom I'm more bearish on his potential? Or maybe Logan Hensler (2025 right-handed defense prospect) falls to us like Dvorsky did? Or maybe even both? ...Hey, a girl can dream, right?) to move Parayko, who would be slowing down a lot in five years, to the third pairing, or, under worst-case-scenario, to replace Parayko, if he declines too much; if the latter is the case, I have to imagine we'll need two because I don't have much faith in Kessel. I wish Fischer was a right-handed shot; I would love to see what that kid could do on a pairing with Lindstein, if not for the fact that they're both left-handed shots.

The pairings are based off of our zone starts: obviously, Parayko/other defenseman and Fischer would take the heavy defensive minutes; Broberg and Jiricek, our more offensive minutes; and Lindstein and the other - preferably young - addition, could be our top pairing. Buchinger is still a solid PPQB, but I think he's a distant seventh defenseman with these additions. Still, I wouldn't count him out of getting a role of his own.

As for goalies, I've made my feelings on Binnington clear, and I won't rehash them here because I don't want the fight. I do like Hofer and Zherenko a lot, so I could see a solid tandem with them.

But that's my roster. Very young, but loaded with potential, enough so, that I believe that with a major addition on right defense, we could ride the wave to multiple Cups.

 

[taylord22]

Snuggerud is a bigger deal to this team/plan than we give credit for. From a 'player type' standpoint, he seems exactly the type of player that could/should excel with Thomas. First and foremost, it's a legit 1-T threat who can find time and space for himself, who is also decent at: making plays, playing off the cycle, and is respectable on the defensive side.

He may not be a 1st line talent on paper, but, Thomas just needs someone with high offensive ceiling/decent awareness. He can compound the offense for a player like that. Tarasenko put up some of the best numbers of his career playing with Thomas while he had one foot and two arms out the door.

Buch - Thomas - Snuggerud
x - Dvorsky - Kyrou

This feels like the hoped future. That's an impressive amount of insulation for Snuggerud to have; Thomas/Buch have the best on-ice chemistry on the team BY FAR. It gives that line a REALLY high floor just from those two alone going up against top lines. And Kyrou on the 2nd line creates a lot of mismatch opportunities.

However, there have been some flags that have arisen that might be putting this plan in jeopardy 1.) I don't think they loved Snuggy going back to Minny because I don't think they loved his development last year. He did not get many reps creating off the cycle playing with a C like Moore, and Moore is not Cooley in transition. Snuggerud felt like a janitor playing with Moore and I don't see any reason why it will be different this year. 2.) Dvorsky has a much higher floor than Snuggerud, but, he's been passive playing against men and that can take longer to play out of a prospect. I do think it's important to distinguish the narrative here: He has a problem deferring to teammates when playing against older competition. Even when it's not the right play. He does not have a problem engaging in a battle against men. There's a big difference there. Both are problematic, but I think this narrative around him playing against men has gone off the rails.

Those are the two players that are next in line, and the ones you're counting most on to raise the offensive ceiling of this team

My point in all of this is that I can see them trading assets of significance to acquire a sure-fire partner for Thomas. Their steadfastness with Buch at C — despite the missed opportunities and 5 on 5 artifice it creates — tells me they're preparing to insulate themselves at the 2C spot for extended time while they wait on Dvorsky. But, they won't be able to wait on both Snuggerud and Dvorsky if they plan to start competing this/next year. And you can't expect Thomas to turn every middle 6 player into a 30 goal scorer, which is what you need on that 1st line to compete.

Thomas and Marner did play together — and won the Memorial Cup together — in Jr. Thomas described Tkachuk and Marner taking him under their wing...maybe they still keep in touch, but obviously not to the extent that he is with the Tkachuks. I do think it would take a player like Marner for the Blues to pay significantly more than what they paid 18. 25. 89. But my impression of Marner is that he's going to care about money + city equally. Not going to be surprised if we end up cursing his name for choosing to play for a rival team. Ehlers is also out there, but 1.) I doubt he makes it to F/A before being traded to a team that probably signs him and 2.) I don't know that he's a slam dunk fit with Thomas from a play style perspective.