What will Matt Irwin's next contract be and when?

[210]

I will be shocked if it's more than the 2 year/$1.5M I predict, and that first season will almost certainly be two-way.

 

[210]

I think it is fairly productive, but not "very" productive, especially relative to his NHL-play.

I mean, he is also averaging (IIRC) half a point a game here. You have to think that that isn't a true indication of his abilities if he could barely do that in the AHL.

Define "very productive".

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Irwin's 35? Dang...

No, if he was 35 and had a ring he would get big bucks

 

[Juxtaposer]

Irwin's PDO is still the lowest on the team. He's honestly been that good, that his numbers look great despite that.

 

[ChubbChubby]

Irwin's PDO is still the lowest on the team. He's honestly been that good, that his numbers look great despite that.

Maybe because he takes shots every chance he gets, not necessarily because he's that good. He's kind of an unknown right now, but that will change once teams figure out he has a good shot.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Define "very productive".

To believe he can score at a 41-point pace in the NHL, at his age and devlopment, I'd expect him to be able to get 55-65 points in the AHL.

 

[ChubbChubby]

To believe he can score at a 41-point pace in the NHL, at his age and devlopment, I'd expect him to be able to get 55-65 points in the AHL.

That would be incredibly hard to do for a defenseman playing on an AHL team without much top-end talent. I'm not as high on Irwin as some other posters here, but I still don't think his AHL performance is the best indicator. He did rather well in the minors all things considered.

 

[OldAsianSharksFan]

Matt Irwin stills needs to prove he is more consistent in his own zone and also makes bad pinches at times. Sometimes Irwin gets burned by making bad decisions (see Gabriel Bourque, short-handed goal)

Irwin's shot is what got him in the NHL level, but his positioning is still a little raw. I think DW and TMac is playing Irwin more so he can learn the veterans and Robinson on how to better defend.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Maybe because he takes shots every chance he gets, not necessarily because he's that good. He's kind of an unknown right now, but that will change once teams figure out he has a good shot.

Weird, because he's got a high personal shooting percentage, so clearly it's everyone else on the ice with him not taking high quality shots. And man, that Boyle guy, terrible shooting. Also that Marleau guy, that Pavelski guy, that Couture guy, all terrible shooters.

 

[210]

To believe he can score at a 41-point pace in the NHL, at his age and devlopment, I'd expect him to be able to get 55-65 points in the AHL.

OK, we'll go with 60...

Cheechoo lead the WorSharks in scoring with 47 points in 10-11, and John McCarthy lead the WorSharks in 11-12 with that same 47 point total. Last season Irwin was second on the team on scoring at 42 points.

Your numbers are unreasonable considering the circumstances Irwin played.

 

[ChubbChubby]

Weird, because he's got a high personal shooting percentage, so clearly it's everyone else on the ice with him not taking high quality shots. And man, that Boyle guy, terrible shooting. Also that Marleau guy, that Pavelski guy, that Couture guy, all terrible shooters.

I have no idea what your point is.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I have no idea what your point is.

I said his PDO is low.

You said it's because he takes a lot of shots regardless of quality.

I said that his personal shooting percentage his high, so that argument doesn't work.

Irwin's personal shooting percentage is high, but his on-ice shooting percentage is low. He should have less goals, and more assists. The point is that individually, Irwin is shooting well, but his teammates aren't. His teammates are all Dan Boyle and top-6 forwards, who are great shooters. So you're point was wrong.

 

[sr228]

OK, we'll go with 60...

Cheechoo lead the WorSharks in scoring with 47 points in 10-11, and John McCarthy lead the WorSharks in 11-12 with that same 47 point total. Last season Irwin was second on the team on scoring at 42 points.

Your numbers are unreasonable considering the circumstances Irwin played.

Those numbers are unreasonable for a d-man period.

 

[ChubbChubby]

Well the top-6 has been taking really bad shots lately, considering we average about 2 goals a game.

If his shooting percentage is high, that's something that will likely drop off. He's getting a ton of shots through, but that is also something that will likely regress. Fact is the sample size is way too small to draw any concrete conclusions yet. We'll have a better picture when he plays more, and we'll have a better understanding of his skillset once teams start realizing he's not useless offensively like Murray and most of Dan Boyle's recent partners.

Your argument sounds like a false dichotomy. It certainly isn't the only answer.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Well the top-6 has been taking really bad shots lately, considering we average about 2 goals a game.

If his shooting percentage is high, that's something that will likely drop off. He's getting a ton of shots through, but that is also something that will likely regress. Fact is the sample size is way too small to draw any concrete conclusions yet. We'll have a better picture when he plays more, and we'll have a better understanding of his skillset once teams start realizing he's not useless like Murray.

Your argument sounds like a false dichotomy. It certainly isn't the only answer.

How is it a false dichotomy? Please explain it to me. And yes, I did take symbolic logic so you don't have to explain what a false dichotomy is to me.

So Irwin's shooting percentage will regress down, but his on-ice shooting percentage won't regress up? Now that's a huge double standard. Either you believe that his true shooting talent is 11.4%, which would be Stamkosian for a defenseman, or you believe in random variance. There's nothing false about that dichotomy.

 

[one2gamble]

My guess is a two year deal, year one being $750k/$125k and year two being $800k

i was thinking more like 900k/1.2, the issue is his defense still isnt anything more than bottom pairing. He has a knack for getting the shot through traffic though.

 

[TheSandman]

IF he's able to keep producing for the rest of the season and then hits UFA....is it unreasonable to expect other teams to use Jason Garrison as a comprable?

 

[ChubbChubby]

How is it a false dichotomy? Please explain it to me. And yes, I did take symbolic logic so you don't have to explain what a false dichotomy is to me.

So Irwin's shooting percentage will regress down, but his on-ice shooting percentage won't regress up? Now that's a huge double standard. Either you believe that his true shooting talent is 11.4%, which would be Stamkosian for a defenseman, or you believe in random variance. There's nothing false about that dichotomy.

Well you're taking a lot of other variables out of the equation and leaving it as either one choice or the other. Sounds like a false dichotomy to me. You're also putting words in my mouth on things I never even said.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Well you're taking a lot of other variables out of the equation and leaving it as either one choice or the other. Sounds like a false dichotomy to me. You're also putting words in my mouth on things I never even said.

You said that you thought Irwin's low PDO was due to the fact that he takes a lot of shots from any angle/distance. If that were so, it would be his personal, not on-ice, shooting percentage that was low. It's the opposite. Either you believe that Irwin's linemates, almost all top-6 forwards or Boyle, are true talent shooters of only about 5%, or you believe in random variance. There is no other option there. You're saying that there are other variables, but you aren't listing them.

You said, verbatim, "If his shooting percentage is high, that's something that will likely drop off." So that implies that you believe in variance. And yet you don't believe in random variance for the top-6 because you think that a low quality of shots is the reason for the Sharks' offensive problems, when a multitude of studies have shown that there is very little in the way of "shot quality" in the NHL, with the exception of like maybe half a dozen players.

 

[ChubbChubby]

You said that you thought Irwin's low PDO was due to the fact that he takes a lot of shots from any angle/distance. If that were so, it would be his personal, not on-ice, shooting percentage that was low. It's the opposite. Either you believe that Irwin's linemates, almost all top-6 forwards or Boyle, are true talent shooters of only about 5%, or you believe in random variance. There is no other option there. You're saying that there are other variables, but you aren't listing them.

You said, verbatim, "If his shooting percentage is high, that's something that will likely drop off." So that implies that you believe in variance. And yet you don't believe in random variance for the top-6 because you think that a low quality of shots is the reason for the Sharks' offensive problems, when a multitude of studies have shown that there is very little in the way of "shot quality" in the NHL, with the exception of like maybe half a dozen players.

He certainly is getting a lot more shots through than he should, which I think does skew his stats a bit. The sample size is also really small, so it's not a good indicator of continued performance. I don't think his linemates are 5% career shooters, but they pretty much have been since he's been in the lineup. The quality of shots definitely has not been there, or you think every goalie is stonewalling us? You could call it variance, but that still has the same outcome. It's not like our shot totals are dipping, we just aren't scoring. It'll bounce back sure, but it messes with his stats right now.

Admittedly I don't know much about advanced stats, but what I'm trying to say is Irwin is shooting at an unsustainable rate and he won't be able to keep up these numbers obviously (goal per game defenseman? I wish), both because he's not Stamkosian and because teams will figure out how to defend his shot. He shouldn't get a payday considering how big of an unknown he is.

 

[210]

Those numbers are unreasonable for a d-man period.

Just for kicks I looked up the top scoring defensemen in the AHL over the last few seasons.

This season the highest scoring AHL defenseman so far is Justin Schultz (18-30-48). He hasn't payed an AHL game since January 5th. The highest scoring "real" AHL defenseman is Mark Barberio (62 games, 8-32-40). He plays for Syracuse, which is the highest scoring team in the league...the closest team is 17 goals behind them. So Barberio has a shot at the 60 point plateau. No other blueliner has a chance without a bunch of records falling.

Last season, the leading defenseman scorer was Barberio (74 games, 13-48-61). He played for Norfolk (and won the Calder Cup), which was the Lightning's affiliate before moving it to SYR this season. Norfolk lead the AHL in goals scored BY 28 GOALS!!! The next highest scoring defenseman was Brian Connelly (72 games, 6-46-52)

In 2010-11 (hey, it's snowing here and I'm bored ) Marc-Andre Gragnani lead defenseman in scoring (63 games, 12-48-60). He hit that "mystical" point plateau, but his NHL career hasn't been all that good (74 games, 3-15-18). Andre Benoit was next for d-men (73 games, 11-44-55).

We'll go back one more season, to 2009-10...Danny Groulx!!!! San Jose property!!!! (80 games, 14-52-66). He hit over the mythical (read: totally random ) point plateau!!!! Not a single person who has ever watched Groulx play thinks he was ever an NHL calibre defenseman. Grand total of NHL games played: zero. That season another AHL defenseman hit the 60 point level...Clay Wilson (75 games, 14-46-60). I'm guessing most here will have to go look him up.

 

[Juxtaposer]

What do you mean, "getting more shots through than he should"? Because if you mean "the goaltenders are not stopping as many shots as they should", then you're right. Irwin getting shots on net through traffic is a skill. Irwin getting as many shots to go in the net is more luck than skill, at the rate he's going at now, although not by that much.

The Sharks had a ridiculous shooting percentage earlier in the season. Was that their true talent? Nope. Neither is this. A player's shooting percentage will inevitably converge on his career average, and the range of career . One doesn't suddenly change their game completely, take different kinds of shots. The Sharks are getting the same kinds of shots as they were at the beginning of the season. They're just not all going in for them. Game 5, I warned everyone that we were about to experience significant regression. Everyone scoffed and told me to stop being so negative. I expected this to happen, which is probably why I'm not calling for a witchhunt like some around here.

Anyway, it was nice talking to you, but I really should be studying for a Physics exam.

 

[ChubbChubby]

I should be studying for my midterm tomorrow too. Heck, I've been in lecture this entire time, so my focus definitely should be somewhere else.

Irwin's shots probably shouldn't go in as much as they should, but I do think he's getting more shots through now than he will later. Defending forwards are probably still used to Murray and Vlasic pairing with Boyle, so they only have to focus on one defenseman. Now it's different and I think other teams will eventually realize this if Irwin continues to be Boyle's partner.

And I agree with you that the puck luck hasn't been there, partially due to variance. But at the same time, I disagree that the shot quality has been as good.

 

[do0glas]

Irwin has the skill to get his shot through traffic consistently, his wind up is very small and he can shoot against the grain...ie skating with the puck instead into and still generate power. He also can shoot off the toe, that alone will help get past the first defender.

Secondly, as jux said. He is bucking the trend of his PDO. It's actually a real possibility that his production regresses UP rather than down. Simply put, he is shooting better than his mates on the ice, and they are players that are due for an uptick in sh%. So even if his personal sh% goes down, his actual point production (pri/sec assists) will trend up BECAUSE he has actual practiced skill at shooting past people.

He shouldn't get a big payday, but given his projected production and his age, it wouldn't surprise me if:

A. He got a slight over payment from the sharks a la Braun 1.25 mil

Or

B. a team in need offers a bigger deal.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Some people here simply have no idea what they're talking about. Irwin has been a dominant offensive d-man at every level. He was great w/ UMass, great w/ Worcester and will be solid in San Jose.

People saying his 40+ pts in the AHL isn't good clearly don't pay much attention to the AHL. Also look back at Dan Boyle. His #'s in the NHL were far superior to his AHL #'s. Irwin has an offensive mind for the game and I think it will carry to the NHL. I watched Braun and Irwin both in college and Irwin was far superior Offensively (Braun more so defensively). You can't look at numbers to make these statements, you watch them play. Irwin with a few season under his belt can definitely develop into a 40+ pt defenseman. I don't know how far he can/will develop defensively but he will be strong for the PP and if you are looking for offense from the back.