Speculation: What Will Be Gabby's AAV?

[Damassk]

6.5 million. 3 years frontloaded deal. 7.0 - 6.5 - 6.0

 

[Telos]

3-4 years @ $6.5-6.8 million per year.

 

[Basilisk]

3 years, $17 million ~~~ $5.67 million per season

 

[Buddy The Elf]

Why do people always think guys are going to take discounts, every time people think that and guys very rarely do, unless they sign very long term contracts like Quick and Brown.

Why would anyone take a discount, especially a guy who is signing in California, with the state's ridiculous income tax rates on the highest earners. People always say UFA's avoid LA because of the travel, and some of that may be true, but don't think the 12.5% state income tax doesn't have anything to do with that.

I've already given you a good enough reason which you seemed to partially agree with. Gaborik is a major injury risk. Gaborik (presumably) wants to play on a contender. And finally, after last nights goal, I think it is evident he is thoroughly enjoying his time in LA. With all of that said, how many teams can offer Gaborik a spot on their top line playing with a player of Kopitar's caliber, have cap space, are willing ot forego the injury risk and he'll actually want to play for? List the teams and how much you think they'd be willing to pay. I guarantee you the list is on one hand and probably not using all the fingers either.

Re: taxes

i'm not an accountant but does NY not have incredibly high income tax rates as well? They also have an incredibly high cost of living (higher than LA). With that logic, Florida would be a boon to free agents. And it does seem like that is the case lately.. just with free agents nobody wants.

My guess:

If the contract is 4 years or more, I think it is south of $6M and probably $5.5M-$6M.

If the contract is three years, $6-$6.5M.

If the contract is two years or less, closer to or just over $7M. I'll be he signs for 3 or 4 years, in the $6M range.

 

[stonedhenge]

If Gaborik was elite player, Columbus wouldn't have traded him for peanuts and NY wouldn't have shipped him out. Gaborik looked done before he was traded from Columbus and probably would have had trouble to get more than 1y/4M deal in the summer. Now he gets to play with one of the best centers in the league and be a part of possibly the best team in hockey and he is immediately worth 6-7M? Sorry he is worth 2y/5M AAV at most and he wouldn't even get close to that contract in the summer if he stayed in Columbus.

 

[deeshamrock]

I guess that depends on what is the most important thing for him at this stage of his career. It's not likely he'll get a better set up than playing with the best team in the NHL with the leagues best center. And he clearly loves the team and that role. So there are 2 things to consider.
1) Since his rookie year *(2000)) he's only completed 1 NHL full season and early on had a couple where he missed just a few games. Other than that, he's missed a whole lot of games due to injuries. And this team plays a very physical and demanding game, and the odds are against him not missing time. I think DL will take that into consideration and also he'll turn 33 next year. Age coupled with injuries I think DL will offer something akin to
3 years 20 million

2) However, Gabby has been spectacular since he got here , more so than he's been in the last few years. There are teams out there who are starved for a gifted top line forward and might see his recent play as reason to offer /overpay because they need him. If Homer was still running things, since an LW for the top line is one o ftheir off season goals, I wouldn't put it past him ot overpay.
And maybe Gabby want's security. Maybe if he thinks this might be his last contract, he'll want 5 years and someone might give him that.

It's all about what his needs are and what offers he gets from other teams.
But I can't think he'd turn down DL, he's really in a good place here, great teammates, great city to live in, great organization.

 

[HYORI 1963]

Can one of the mods combine this poll with the current Gabby thread? Pretty please...

 

[MsMeow]

I'm hoping he gets about what Carter's getting. I know Carter is massively underpaid but Gaborik has had his huge payday and hopefully being part of a winning organization for once will give him the motivation to sign for less. He's 32, not 27 so hopefully he will go for happiness over another massive cheque with a different team.

 

[Rorschach]

This will sound crazy but I'm thinking a 5 year deal for between $4-5.1m a year average. Right cap hit for the team, right term for Marian. Plenty more money, plenty more good times, and attract a new friend with the cap savings.

 

[HYORI 1963]

This will sound crazy but I'm thinking a 5 year deal for between $4-5.1m a year average. Right cap hit for the team, right term for Marian. Plenty more money, plenty more good times, and attract a new friend with the cap savings.

Kinda sounds crazy and kinda not. I like it. Kinda. I think.

 

[Herby]

I have been Gaborik's biggest fan on this board for years, obviously I want him re-signed but five years would be a little bit scary. He is still 32 with an injury history.

Sometimes adding years to lessen the cap hit isn't the best way to go about things.

 

[Hatter]

what are the odds that if he wins a cup this year he bolts to the highest bidder even if they aren't contenders

 

[KopitarFAN]

what are the odds that if he wins a cup this year he bolts to the highest bidder even if they aren't contenders

That would be very telling about him.

 

[Herby]

what are the odds that if he wins a cup this year he bolts to the highest bidder even if they aren't contenders

Well the highest bidder probably would be a contender or atleast a pretender that everyone believes is a contender.

A team like St. Louis could desperately use someone like Gaborik.

People can talk about the injury concerns, but teams are willing to gamble on a game changer like this. Very rarely do players this good hit UFA.

 

[Winger23]

I have a gut feeling he's already signed, they are just waiting til after Wednesday to announce it.

 

[Reclamation Project]

Imagine him dropping the bombshell that he's been signed for weeks after he potentially hoists the Cup

 

[Rorschach]

I have been Gaborik's biggest fan on this board for years, obviously I want him re-signed but five years would be a little bit scary. He is still 32 with an injury history.

Sometimes adding years to lessen the cap hit isn't the best way to go about things.

Like I said, sounds crazy...but I think four years in to the future, 5m will be the new 2.8m and if he helps us win just one more Cup, 2.8m cap hit will be almost nothing...we're talking about a world class player here, not Clarkson or Clowe.

 

[Rorschach]

It will also be telling if he takes significantly less money up front so the team can rebuild the old half of the defense.

 

[Crowne Royale]

I'd be happy with $5.5M for 3 years. I think that's the right fit given Gabby's already made his fortune and money isn't that big an issue. Salcer is his agent and he's always had a solid relationship with the Kings, so I think that plays in our favor. Takes a little bit of a discount to remain on a great team, as well as a ding due to the age and injury history. That would be consistent with Quick and others who've taken a little less to be able to build around them.

 

[rajuabju]

I'm going with 6 million 3-4 years. Get it down with a year or 2 extra.

This.

If he wants over $6.75M, he can go elsewhere.

I'm really hoping we can keep it under $6.25M or so.