What Team has the top future D corp ?

[Satanphonehome]

I’m saying Hughes, Nemec and Power are all younger and have more potential for future growth in there game. Do you think Casey Mittelstadt is also pulling a Hughes, Nemec or Power back in a trade?

To the bold, definitely not this spring.

And while your first sentence seems like common sense, a look at the NHL's most productive defencemen shows that's not necessarily true. None of them had broken out by age 22 and where they were at 20 doesn't seem to be a particularly strong indicator of where they will be at their peak.

2024 top 10 NHL scoring D:

1. Quinn Hughes
2. Cale Makar
3. Roman Josi
4. Evan Bouchard
5. Victor Hedman
6. Adam Fox
7. Noah Dobson
8. Josh Morrissey
9. Mike Matheson
10. Rasmus Dahlin

Their career totals after their age 22 season:

1. Rasmus Dahlin GP: 277 31/129/160
2. Quinn Hughes GP: 129 11/86/97
3. Cale Makar GP: 101 20/74/94
4. Victor Hedman GP: 258 16/73/89
5. Noah Dobson GP: 160 17/55/72
6. Evan Bouchard GP: 95 14/35/48
7. Adam Fox GP: 70 8/34/42
8. Roman Josi GP: 100 10/24/34
9. Josh Morrissey GP: 83 6/14/20
10. Mike Matheson GP: 3 0/0/0

Through that lens, Byram's totals of 164 26/46/72, show nothing to indicate his window has closed in a way the windows of Hughes and Nemec have not.

 

[Lou Bloom]

To the bold, definitely not this spring.

And while your first sentence seems like common sense, a look at the NHL's most productive defencemen shows that's not necessarily true. None of them had broken out by age 22 and where they were at 20 doesn't seem to be a particularly strong indicator of where they will be at their peak.

2024 top 10 NHL scoring D:

1. Quinn Hughes
2. Cale Makar
3. Roman Josi
4. Evan Bouchard
5. Victor Hedman
6. Adam Fox
7. Noah Dobson
8. Josh Morrissey
9. Mike Matheson
10. Rasmus Dahlin

Their career totals after their age 22 season:

1. Rasmus Dahlin GP: 277 31/129/160
2. Quinn Hughes GP: 129 11/86/97
3. Cale Makar GP: 101 20/74/94
4. Victor Hedman GP: 258 16/73/89
5. Noah Dobson GP: 160 17/55/72
6. Evan Bouchard GP: 95 14/35/48
7. Adam Fox GP: 70 8/34/42
8. Roman Josi GP: 100 10/24/34
9. Josh Morrissey GP: 83 6/14/20
10. Mike Matheson GP: 3 0/0/0

Through that lens, Byram's totals of 164 26/46/72, show nothing to indicate his window has closed in a way the windows of Hughes and Nemec have not.

Nobody is saying Byram's window has closed. It's just common sense that the players who are younger and have less experience will have more developmental runway compared to someone going into their 5th season in the NHL.

Would you have valued Kakko and Slafkovsky similarly after Slafkovsky's rookie season since both players had similar 18 year old seasons? Of course not because one player was still 18 years old and had a lot of developmental potential ahead of him while the other was 22 and much further along in their development.

 

[Satanphonehome]

Nobody is saying Byram's window has closed. It's just common sense that the players who are younger and have less experience will have more developmental runway compared to someone going into their 5th season in the NHL.

Would you have valued Kakko and Slafkovsky similarly after Slafkovsky's rookie season since both players had similar 18 year old seasons? Of course not because one player was still 18 years old and had a lot of developmental potential ahead of him while the other was 22 and much further along in their development.

Yes, I'm not really arguing against your basic point and I'm sorry if it seems that way.

I agree that the other three have a longer developmental runway than Byram. I think what I'm trying to say is that the bold is somewhat misleading in the sense that Byram has only played 80 more NHL games than Hughes has. You make a fair point, I just don't think that the difference warrants dropping him down a tier.

I'm glad you brought up the Kakko example because Kakko has played 300 NHL games — nearly 2 full seasons worth more than Byram — and forwards typically have shorter developmental paths than defencemen.

I think Hughes and Nemec and Power are fantastic talents and I expect each to pop, but I won't be overly surprised if it takes a few more years before they fully do and impatient people will start saying they've gotten stagnant. And if it happens I'll be sticking up for them in the same way I'm sticking up for Byram.

Because that's what other early entries like Hedman and Heiskanen and Sergachev and Dahlin did. Seider seems on that path and I see people already saying it about him, and about Power even, after just his second year. Those people are wrong.

Thanks for your patience.

 

[dgibb10]

To the bold, definitely not this spring.

And while your first sentence seems like common sense, a look at the NHL's most productive defencemen shows that's not necessarily true. None of them had broken out by age 22 and where they were at 20 doesn't seem to be a particularly strong indicator of where they will be at their peak.

2024 top 10 NHL scoring D:

1. Quinn Hughes
2. Cale Makar
3. Roman Josi
4. Evan Bouchard
5. Victor Hedman
6. Adam Fox
7. Noah Dobson
8. Josh Morrissey
9. Mike Matheson
10. Rasmus Dahlin

Their career totals after their age 22 season:

1. Rasmus Dahlin GP: 277 31/129/160
2. Quinn Hughes GP: 129 11/86/97
3. Cale Makar GP: 101 20/74/94
4. Victor Hedman GP: 258 16/73/89
5. Noah Dobson GP: 160 17/55/72
6. Evan Bouchard GP: 95 14/35/48
7. Adam Fox GP: 70 8/34/42
8. Roman Josi GP: 100 10/24/34
9. Josh Morrissey GP: 83 6/14/20
10. Mike Matheson GP: 3 0/0/0

Through that lens, Byram's totals of 164 26/46/72, show nothing to indicate his window has closed in a way the windows of Hughes and Nemec have not.

The concern with Byram is he's been getting worse, not better.

His defensive metrics have absolutely cratered since the cup win.

Putting up a 47.75% xGoals share on a elite team like Colorado is scary bad.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Yes, I'm not really arguing against your basic point and I'm sorry if it seems that way.

I agree that the other three have a longer developmental runway than Byram. I think what I'm trying to say is that the bold is somewhat misleading in the sense that Byram has only played 80 more NHL games than Hughes has. You make a fair point, I just don't think that the difference warrants dropping him down a tier.

I'm glad you brought up the Kakko example because Kakko has played 300 NHL games — nearly 2 full seasons worth more than Byram — and forwards typically have shorter developmental paths than defencemen.

I think Hughes and Nemec and Power are fantastic talents and I expect each to pop, but I won't be overly surprised if it takes a few more years before they fully do and impatient people will start saying they've gotten stagnant. And if it happens I'll be sticking up for them in the same way I'm sticking up for Byram.

Because that's what other early entries like Hedman and Heiskanen and Sergachev and Dahlin did. Seider seems on that path and I see people already saying it about him, and about Power even, after just his second year. Those people are wrong.

Thanks for your patience.

Development isn't just about games played, It's about constantly being on the ice, practicing and honing your craft. Which is part of the problem for Byram since he has missed a large chunk of time due to injury. How many times do we see in sports (not just hockey) a young promising player that has a handful of injuries in the early portion of their pro career and it either limits or fully derails their potential?

If the Kakko vs Slafkovsky example doesn't work due to GP and position than how about comparing Philip Broberg to a Simon Edvinsson or Brandt Clarke? None of the players listed have much NHL experience and are all defenseman selected in similar areas of the draft. Would you say Broberg has similar potential moving forward to Edvinsson or Clarke?

I don't disagree that Hughes, Nemec and Power are more likely to be at their best at 25 compared to 21. The disagreement is that Byram at 23 is closer to those prime years and has less time/opportunity for improvements in his game compared to these players that are still 4+ years away from their primes.

If Byram is on a similar tier to Hughes, Nemec and Power then why would the Avalanche trade a player like that for Mittelstadt? If he had the kind of value and potential you're implying then Colorado should have been able to get a much better 2C on their roster for such a talent.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Some serious underrating of Samuelsson going on in here. He’s a top 4 defensemen. One of the best young defensive defensemen in the NHL.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Since much of the debate for Jersey up-thread seems to be based around Hughes' numbers as a 20 year-old, let's compare these 20-year-old seasons:

Games played:

• Hughes 82
• Power 79
• Nemec 60
• Byram 30 (concussion)

Goals:

• Hughes 9
• Byram 5
• Power 4
• Nemec 3

ES Goals:

• Byram 5
• Hughes 5
• Power 4
• Nemec 3

Points:

• Hughes 47
• Power 35
• Nemec 19
• Byram 17

ES Points

• Power 26
• Hughes 22
• Nemec 17
• Byram 16

Points/games played:

• Byram .57
• Hughes .57
• Power .44
• Nemec .32

ES Points/games played:

• Byram .53
• Power .44
• Nemec .28
• Hughes .27

Ice time/games played:

• Power 23:48
• Hughes 21:28
• Nemec 19:52
• Byram 18:48

ES ice time/games played:

• Power 20:44
• Hughes 17:56
• Nemec 17:44
• Byram 17:33

Hits:

• Byram 53
• Power 27
• Hughes 24
• Nemec 22

Blocked shots:

• Nemec 105
• Power 86
• Hughes 55
• Byram 26

Giveaways:

• Byram 11
• Nemec 25
• Power 52
• Hughes 69

Hits per 60:

• Byram 5.63
• Nemec 1.10
• Power 0.86
• Hughes 0.81

Blocked shots per 60:

• Nemec 5.28
• Byram 2.76
• Power 2.74
• Hughes 1.87

Giveaways per 60:

• Byram 1.16
• Nemec 1.25
• Power 1.65
• Hughes 2.35

5on5 SA for %:

• Hughes 54.5%
• Byram 53.2%
• Power 52.2%
• Nemec 49.7%

On-ice ES goal %:

• Byram 56.4%
• Power 53.4%
• Nemec 49.1%
• Hughes 43.0%

woah woah woah
I'm not seeing how many times Luke Hughes started a shift on the fly here. Surely that must move the needle more his way.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

The concern with Byram is he's been getting worse, not better.

His defensive metrics have absolutely cratered since the cup win.

Putting up a 47.75% xGoals share on a elite team like Colorado is scary bad.

I'm not saying he won't become really good but he's an example of why I hate locking up young dmen to 8 year deals until they have shown 3+ years of getting better. Sure some guys you just know will excel like Quinn, Cale etc but some of the other guys that have been locked up haven't proven near enough.

 

[P10p]

Minnesota with Faber and Buium looking solid along with a glut of middling d prospects.

 

[My3Sons]

Minnesota with Faber and Buium looking solid along with a glut of middling d prospects.

All of the teams collecting young defenders have something to look forward to. For the most part this is splitting hairs and the reality is the eventual outcome will probably be determined in some respects by coaching and the team's game plan and the makeup of the forward unit. Generally the one or two high end guys are worth all of the middling guys but to be fair, Faber was a second rounder and not even the very top of the round.

 

[Yepthatsme]

I think they’re probably just outside the top 5 currently, even if with their gluttony of draft capital they’ll probably keep improving, but I’ve loved Calgary’s philosophy of just adding high end puck mover after puck mover to their pool. Between Parekh, Brzustewicz, Mews, Morin, and Poirier they have a variety of defenseman who are good to elite at moving the puck whether it’s with their feet or their passing. Obviously a good few of them will inevitably bust, and a couple may require babysitters for defense partners in the NHL, but Calgary’s blue line in 4-5 years is going to be extremely mobile and dangerous.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Luke was better than Dahlin in his third year.

If you're expecting this to mean anything, you're gonna be disappointed.

 

[Xirik]

If you're expecting this to mean anything, you're gonna be disappointed.

It does but I understand if you can't figure out why.

 

[Guadana]

If you're expecting this to mean anything, you're gonna be disappointed.

Or not.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

It does but I understand if you can't figure out why.

Or not.

Believe what you want to believe but Hughes didn't have peak Krueger to play for.

Try comparing Hughes' season to Dahlin’s 18yo rookie year.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Since much of the debate for Jersey up-thread seems to be based around Hughes' numbers as a 20 year-old, let's compare these 20-year-old seasons:

Games played:

• Hughes 82
• Power 79
• Nemec 60
• Byram 30 (concussion)

Goals:

• Hughes 9
• Byram 5
• Power 4
• Nemec 3

ES Goals:

• Byram 5
• Hughes 5
• Power 4
• Nemec 3

Points:

• Hughes 47
• Power 35
• Nemec 19
• Byram 17

ES Points

• Power 26
• Hughes 22
• Nemec 17
• Byram 16

Points/games played:

• Byram .57
• Hughes .57
• Power .44
• Nemec .32

ES Points/games played:

• Byram .53
• Power .44
• Nemec .28
• Hughes .27

Ice time/games played:

• Power 23:48
• Hughes 21:28
• Nemec 19:52
• Byram 18:48

ES ice time/games played:

• Power 20:44
• Hughes 17:56
• Nemec 17:44
• Byram 17:33

Hits:

• Byram 53
• Power 27
• Hughes 24
• Nemec 22

Blocked shots:

• Nemec 105
• Power 86
• Hughes 55
• Byram 26

Giveaways:

• Byram 11
• Nemec 25
• Power 52
• Hughes 69

Hits per 60:

• Byram 5.63
• Nemec 1.10
• Power 0.86
• Hughes 0.81

Blocked shots per 60:

• Nemec 5.28
• Byram 2.76
• Power 2.74
• Hughes 1.87

Giveaways per 60:

• Byram 1.16
• Nemec 1.25
• Power 1.65
• Hughes 2.35

5on5 SA for %:

• Hughes 54.5%
• Byram 53.2%
• Power 52.2%
• Nemec 49.7%

On-ice ES goal %:

• Byram 56.4%
• Power 53.4%
• Nemec 49.1%
• Hughes 43.0%

To me, it looks like any apparent upper hand Hughes may have among these 4 as a 20-year-old is pretty much solely a function of the points he collected running his team's top PP, an opportunity none of the others had available to them.

Looking through the rest of the numbers, I don't see a clear advantage to either team.

I take the quality of the Devils other high picks (Silayev, Casey) over the quantity of those in the Sabres' stable (Johnson, Samuelsson, Kleber, Strbak), with the caveat that Samuelsson is the only name in that group actually proven to be a capable NHLer.

But the fact the Sabres still can play the Dahlin trump card on top of the rest makes Buffalo the easy choice for me.

This past season was Nemec’s 19 yr old season.

 

[Guadana]

Try comparing Hughes' season to Dahlin’s 18yo rookie year.

They did it in different league. I dont need to. Because D+3 is more representive from many angles.

Will see how Hughes will develop later. May be he will stop. But we have his better season than Dahlin have in D+3 year. We have examples of Quinn and Jack. Reason why penciling Luke as potentially as good or even better player than Dahlin is a reasonable argument.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

They did it in different league. I dont need to. Because D+3 is more representive from many angles.

Will see how Hughes will develop later. May be he will stop. But we have his better season than Dahlin have in D+3 year. We have examples of Quinn and Jack. Reason why penciling Luke as potentially as good or even better player than Dahlin is a reasonable argument.

I'm sorry but no. There were legitimate reasons for Dahlin’s season.

Ya they were in different leagues their 1st season. One was the NHL, the other wasn't. There is no current argument for Hughes to be as good let alone better.

 

[Guadana]

I'm sorry but no. There were legitimate reasons for Dahlin’s season.

Ya they were in different leagues their 1st season. One was the NHL, the other wasn't. There is no current argument for Hughes to be as good let alone better.

pf.

Dahlin had worser d+3 season than Hughes. Hughes had great NCAA seasons in comparing with other top-NHL defensemen - Makar, Q Hughes, Fox etc. D+3 season is more actual information. Luke has great brothers top-level players Quinn and Jack - both are better players than Dahlin.

So there are enough of arguments. More than enough. "one was in NHL, other wasnt" is the most pathetic argument. Both played in NHL in D+3, its more actual info(if you know something from school or at least from university about logic). And Im still not saying that Luke will be 100% better than Dahlin, but its not because the first season of Dahlin at all. And for now the gap isnt really that big - Luke is 3.5 years younger. If you think that Luke will not achieve 75 points in the next 3 seasons - you are making bet with some risks.