TSN: What should Bruins do with Milan Lucic?

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

I think the real straw grasping is

1. Making a determination a player at 26's dip in production is due to his style of play by using production charts that show no context

2. Saying 7 million is too much for a player in his early 30's producing around 50 points when we don't even know what the salary cap will be in 5 years.

3. Assuming Lucic won't have a bounce back year at 27 and continue to enjoy that success until his next contract, whenever that will be.

I also think it's naive to ignore all of the counter points to everything you wrote.

1. Statistically, regardless of "style of play", players statistically drop in production in their 30's. Of course there are those that don't, but if you are playing the stats game. If you want to read something interest check this out. I am not saying Lucic WILL follow this trend... but it's statistically true, players drop in production. And Lucic is dropping FROM 60, not PPG.

2.Who knows where the cap will be in 5 years? It could go the opposite way, too. There are plenty of guys in the NHL with overpaid contracts, that everyone thought would be fine. Chris Kelly, slightly overpaid, but I'm sure even Chia thought cap would go up and that wouldn't be that big of a deal then. How's Chris Kelly and his 3 million dollar contract? The cap hasn't changed much since he got it.

3. The counter point is that Lucic is trending towards league average and not upwards. Maybe he does have a bounce back year, and sets himself up real nice for 8 million a year. Maybe he doesn't. Lucic is going to get paid by someone either way.


Glass half empty or glass half full? This whole fanbase is torn on Lucic's future. Personally, I think he'll have some good and some bad years, because NHL players do that sometimes. BUT, all I know is that he WILL get paid.

We pay long term for Lucic, it's because management thinks THIS team is good enough to do it in the near future. We don't, we are rebuilding to be better a few years down the road because trading Lucic will be about securing long term cap space and gaining young assets that will be better for tomorrow than today.

 

[Kaoz]

I also think it's naive to ignore all of the counter points to everything you wrote.

1. Statistically, regardless of "style of play", players statistically drop in production in their 30's. Of course there are those that don't, but if you are playing the stats game. If you want to read something interest check this out. I am not saying Lucic WILL follow this trend... but it's statistically true, players drop in production. And Lucic is dropping FROM 60, not PPG.

2.Who knows where the cap will be in 5 years? It could go the opposite way, too. There are plenty of guys in the NHL with overpaid contracts, that everyone thought would be fine. Chris Kelly, slightly overpaid, but I'm sure even Chia thought cap would go up and that wouldn't be that big of a deal then. How's Chris Kelly and his 3 million dollar contract? The cap hasn't changed much since he got it.

3. The counter point is that Lucic is trending towards league average and not upwards. Maybe he does have a bounce back year, and sets himself up real nice for 8 million a year. Maybe he doesn't. Lucic is going to get paid by someone either way.


Glass half empty or glass half full? This whole fanbase is torn on Lucic's future. Personally, I think he'll have some good and some bad years, because NHL players do that sometimes. BUT, all I know is that he WILL get paid.

We pay long term for Lucic, it's because management thinks THIS team is good enough to do it in the near future. We don't, we are rebuilding to be better a few years down the road because trading Lucic will be about securing long term cap space and gaining young assets that will be better for tomorrow than today.

Lucic is the least of your worries if this is the argument. You have 3 guys on the team who all will make significantly more then him who are all older (Begreron, Krejci, Chara). Each one of those guys are locked up until 2018 for Chara (who will be 40), Krejci in 2021 when he'll be 34), and Bergeron in 2022 when he will be 35.

Krejci and Bergeron are both 60 point guys, and all were signed operating under the assumption that the cap would continue to go up as it had prior to the extensions. At least with Lucic you can use the fact that the cap isn't rising as leverage in the bargaining process. At the very least you don't need to give him a NMC (which Chia was nice enough to give the other three). Those three together make up 1/3rd of your cap, those three all have injury issues, if those three are in decline for the majority of their contract (considering most of their contracts take place in 30+ years) Boston is up **** creek without a paddle.

 

[Man Rocket]

Lucic is the least of your worries if this is the argument. You have 3 guys on the team who all will make significantly more then him who are all older (Begreron, Krejci, Chara). Each one of those guys are locked up until 2018 for Chara (who will be 40), Krejci in 2021 when he'll be 34), and Bergeron in 2022 when he will be 35.

Krejci and Bergeron are both 60 point guys, and all were signed operating under the assumption that the cap would continue to go up as it had prior to the extensions. At least with Lucic you can use the fact that the cap isn't rising as leverage in the bargaining process. At the very least you don't need to give him a NMC (which Chia was nice enough to give the other three). Those three together make up 1/3rd of your cap, those three all have injury issues, if those three are in decline for the majority of their contract (considering most of their contracts take place in 30+ years) Boston is up **** creek without a paddle.

Bergy will be 36 and Krejci 35. sorry to nitpick a small detail in your post

 

[Kaoz]

Bergy will be 36 and Krejci 35. sorry to nitpick a small detail in your post

No worries! Good catch. That must absolutely terrify the folks worrying about Lucic declining on a contract he hasn't even signed yet because he'll be 30+ for a large portion of it.

 

[Bruwinz37]

Lucic is the least of your worries if this is the argument. You have 3 guys on the team who all will make significantly more then him who are all older (Begreron, Krejci, Chara). Each one of those guys are locked up until 2018 for Chara (who will be 40), Krejci in 2021 when he'll be 34), and Bergeron in 2022 when he will be 35.

Krejci and Bergeron are both 60 point guys, and all were signed operating under the assumption that the cap would continue to go up as it had prior to the extensions. At least with Lucic you can use the fact that the cap isn't rising as leverage in the bargaining process. At the very least you don't need to give him a NMC (which Chia was nice enough to give the other three). Those three together make up 1/3rd of your cap, those three all have injury issues, if those three are in decline for the majority of their contract (considering most of their contracts take place in 30+ years) Boston is up **** creek without a paddle.

First they are all far better hockey players. We need to stop pointing at simply how many points they score. Second, relatively speaking they have all been very durable over the course of their careers.

You have to also consider the return and other cap implications and weigh the risks accordingly. If you can land a Ritchie or Virtanen type player plus a pick you are crazy not to do it. You don't deal for 50 cents on the dollar...no one is suggesting that.

 

[BB88]

Lucic is the least of your worries if this is the argument. You have 3 guys on the team who all will make significantly more then him who are all older (Begreron, Krejci, Chara). Each one of those guys are locked up until 2018 for Chara (who will be 40), Krejci in 2021 when he'll be 34), and Bergeron in 2022 when he will be 35.

Krejci and Bergeron are both 60 point guys, and all were signed operating under the assumption that the cap would continue to go up as it had prior to the extensions. At least with Lucic you can use the fact that the cap isn't rising as leverage in the bargaining process. At the very least you don't need to give him a NMC (which Chia was nice enough to give the other three). Those three together make up 1/3rd of your cap, those three all have injury issues, if those three are in decline for the majority of their contract (considering most of their contracts take place in 30+ years) Boston is up **** creek without a paddle.

I have no idea why you are comparing Bergeron and Lucic, the difference for what they bring on the table is huge.

Also ofcourse we are worried of those contracts, but those contracts are signed already and I don't like the idea of having all of those on huge contracts long after they are 30+, it gets harder to compete the more we have contracts like those. So those are just more of a reason why we need to really think about Lucic situation.
For me one of those contracts neeeds to go and Lucic is the easiest to shop and get value back.

 

[LouJersey]

First they are all far better hockey players. We need to stop pointing at simply how many points they score. Second, relatively speaking they have all been very durable over the course of their careers.

You have to also consider the return and other cap implications and weigh the risks accordingly. If you can land a Ritchie or Virtanen type player plus a pick you are crazy not to do it. You don't deal for 50 cents on the dollar...no one is suggesting that.

So Ritchie and 27th for Lucic
or
Virtanen and 23rd for Lucic ?

I wouldn't , there is no certainty there that you are getting fair compensation back as both players took a step back last year statistically.

 

[Kaoz]

First they are all far better hockey players. We need to stop pointing at simply how many points they score. Second, relatively speaking they have all been very durable over the course of their careers.

You have to also consider the return and other cap implications and weigh the risks accordingly. If you can land a Ritchie or Virtanen type player plus a pick you are crazy not to do it. You don't deal for 50 cents on the dollar...no one is suggesting that.

Is that durability not in question with them all now? Bergeron with the concussion issues, Krejci now with the hip issues, Chara with the knee? They all missed more time due to injury last season alone then Lucic has missed in the last 5 years total.

I'd be more inclined to say they are all very different hockey players because them being 'better' is completely subjective based on what you value more in your players. If you don't value forwards who play an all around game, Begreron likely won't have the same appeal. If you don't value players who slow the game down, setup plays, and as such rack up secondary assists, Krejci likely isn't your guy. Lucic is hardly one dimensional, he scores, he passes, and he adds a physical element to the Bruins game no one else comes even close to bringing. It's subjective as to how important you think a role like that is to the big bad Bruins.

Being offered Ritchie, Virtanen... I'll just say this. Lucic is one of the few players in recent NHL history who has the ability to say they quite literally changed the way teams drafted for a period of time. Everyone has been trying to draft the next Lucic clone and no one has been able to do it. As such you've seen teams way over reach on guys like Budish, Kassian, Biggs, and McCarron. In reality, a player like Lucic is incredibly hard to find (shown by the fact that no other team has been able to find one). Virtanen and Ritchie look great now in Junior but so have a lot of others. No one has been more successful then Lucic at translating that style of game from Junior into the NHL and I'd be very leery about suggesting any of the current hopefuls will be able to either.

I have no idea why you are comparing Bergeron and Lucic, the difference for what they bring on the table is huge.

It should be readily obvious based on the course of the conversation. They are being compared because they are the Bruins highest salaries, will be over 30 for the majority, and have just as if not more significant injury concerns.

 

[LouJersey]

Is that durability not in question with them all now? Bergeron with the concussion issues, Krejci now with the hip issues, Chara with the knee? They all missed more time due to injury last season alone then Lucic has missed in the last 5 years total.

I'd be more inclined to say they are all very different hockey players because them being 'better' is completely subjective based on what you value more in your players. If you don't value forwards who play an all around game, Begreron likely won't have the same appeal. If you don't value players who slow the game down, setup plays, and as such rack up secondary assists, Krejci likely isn't your guy. Lucic is hardly one dimensional, he scores, he passes, and he adds a physical element to the Bruins game no one else comes even close to bringing. It's subjective as to how important you think a role like that is to the big bad Bruins.

Being offered Ritchie, Virtanen... I'll just say this. Lucic is one of the few players in recent NHL history who has the ability to say they quite literally changed the way teams drafted for a period of time. Everyone has been trying to draft the next Lucic clone and no one has been able to do it. As such you've seen teams way over reach on guys like Budish, Kassian, Biggs, and McCarron. In reality, a player like Lucic is incredibly hard to find (shown by the fact that no other team has been able to find one). Virtanen and Ritchie look great now in Junior but so have a lot of others. No one has been more successful then Lucic at translating that style of game from Junior into the NHL and I'd be very leery about suggesting any of the current hopefuls will be able to either.

Nice post and agreed 100% and pretty much will guarantee Sweeney does as well.

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

Lucic is the least of your worries if this is the argument. You have 3 guys on the team who all will make significantly more then him who are all older (Begreron, Krejci, Chara). Each one of those guys are locked up until 2018 for Chara (who will be 40), Krejci in 2021 when he'll be 34), and Bergeron in 2022 when he will be 35.

Krejci and Bergeron are both 60 point guys, and all were signed operating under the assumption that the cap would continue to go up as it had prior to the extensions. At least with Lucic you can use the fact that the cap isn't rising as leverage in the bargaining process. At the very least you don't need to give him a NMC (which Chia was nice enough to give the other three). Those three together make up 1/3rd of your cap, those three all have injury issues, if those three are in decline for the majority of their contract (considering most of their contracts take place in 30+ years) Boston is up **** creek without a paddle.

I agree with what you wrote, but Lucic is equally of concern. Chara is the only one that is past his prime and in his twilight. Chara is the one that's not in the long term plans, so I wouldn't include him.

Bergeron and Krejci are equally of concern with what I said. Right now, they are BOTH signed long term, that's another part of the issue in terms of salary distribution. It means picking the core. Honestly, I feel like Krejci should be moved before Lucic (again, many people here are torn on that), but if they aren't moving Krejci someone else needs to go on the long term core plan. Right now, the only one that isn't committed to is Lucic.

If they do keep Lucic, I fully expect them to move one of Krejci, Bergeron, or Lucic long before their contracts end. And probably unfortunately past the time they hold the most value.

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

I had a dream last night that they traded Lucic. to be honest it was a bad dream. The full weight of how totally soft and boring this team would be without him hit me like a wave and I woke up thinking I'll be really heartbroken if they trade him.

 

[Gee Wally]

I had a dream last night that they traded Lucic. to be honest it was a bad dream. The full weight of how totally soft and boring this team would be without him hit me like a wave and I woke up thinking I'll be really heartbroken if they trade him.

So you basically had to relive last season.

 

[MattFromFranklin]

I had a nightmare that they gave Lucic a 7 year extension at $7 million per.

 

[Roll 4 Lines]

Is that durability not in question with them all now? Bergeron with the concussion issues, Krejci now with the hip issues, Chara with the knee? They all missed more time due to injury last season alone then Lucic has missed in the last 5 years total.

I'd be more inclined to say they are all very different hockey players because them being 'better' is completely subjective based on what you value more in your players. If you don't value forwards who play an all around game, Begreron likely won't have the same appeal. If you don't value players who slow the game down, setup plays, and as such rack up secondary assists, Krejci likely isn't your guy. Lucic is hardly one dimensional, he scores, he passes, and he adds a physical element to the Bruins game no one else comes even close to bringing. It's subjective as to how important you think a role like that is to the big bad Bruins.

Being offered Ritchie, Virtanen... I'll just say this. Lucic is one of the few players in recent NHL history who has the ability to say they quite literally changed the way teams drafted for a period of time. Everyone has been trying to draft the next Lucic clone and no one has been able to do it. As such you've seen teams way over reach on guys like Budish, Kassian, Biggs, and McCarron. In reality, a player like Lucic is incredibly hard to find (shown by the fact that no other team has been able to find one). Virtanen and Ritchie look great now in Junior but so have a lot of others. No one has been more successful then Lucic at translating that style of game from Junior into the NHL and I'd be very leery about suggesting any of the current hopefuls will be able to either.

This is a great post.

I'd be happy if they could sign Looch for 4 or 5 years. I think it's reasonable to expect him to slow down at age 32- 34 or so. I don't agree with those who say he's already on the downside of his career. I think he's got some real good years left in him.

Honestly, I'm more concerned with Krejci's chronic hip than with Looch breaking down at 28 or 29 years of age.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

I had a nightmare that they gave Lucic a 7 year extension at $7 million per.

7M ain't what it used to be. 10.5M is now what top stars will be seeking if not more thanks to Toews/Kane just like any top-D will now look for Subban money (9M).

That's the new ball park.

Lucic is unique and every team will try to sign him/acquire him if he's on the market. At that contract, he would have even more value in a trade if the Bruins decide to go that route one day.

You need more Lucic. Not less. 7M is only 1M more than his actual Cap hit. Not very hard to find that space. But finding a Lucic is. We have ours. Keep him. 8y.

 

[BNHL]

This is a great post.

I'd be happy if they could sign Looch for 4 or 5 years. I think it's reasonable to expect him to slow down at age 32- 34 or so. I don't agree with those who say he's already on the downside of his career. I think he's got some real good years left in him.

Honestly, I'm more concerned with Krejci's chronic hip than with Looch breaking down at 28 or 29 years of age.

I thought last year was groin and knee for Krejci. Before last year he had missed 15 games in 6 years.

 

[JoeIsAStud]

So Ritchie and 27th for Lucic
or
Virtanen and 23rd for Lucic ?

I wouldn't , there is no certainty there that you are getting fair compensation back as both players took a step back last year statistically.

Sold, and oh yeah, SOLD

Tough call on which is better. Ritchie could definitely play this yeart, Virtanen might need another year

 

[Bruwinz37]

So Ritchie and 27th for Lucic
or
Virtanen and 23rd for Lucic ?

I wouldn't , there is no certainty there that you are getting fair compensation back as both players took a step back last year statistically.

There stats were almost identical.

Trade offers like that for Lucic are a must take. Quite honestly you have a real good opportunity to get two players better than Lucic in the draft and get the cap flexibility they need to invest in D.

 

[BB88]

Sold, and oh yeah, SOLD

Tough call on which is better. Ritchie could definitely play this yeart, Virtanen might need another year

I'd love to have Ritchie and I believe he is ready to go, he + 1st would be huge return for us.

 

[Roll 4 Lines]

I thought last year was groin and knee for Krejci. Before last year he had missed 15 games in 6 years.

Ahhh....my bad. If you're right, my mind is eased a little!

 

[bp13]

7M ain't what it used to be. 10.5M is now what top stars will be seeking if not more thanks to Toews/Kane just like any top-D will now look for Subban money (9M).

That's the new ball park.

Lucic is unique and every team will try to sign him/acquire him if he's on the market. At that contract, he would have even more value in a trade if the Bruins decide to go that route one day.

You need more Lucic. Not less. 7M is only 1M more than his actual Cap hit. Not very hard to find that space. But finding a Lucic is. We have ours. Keep him. 8y.

Where you lose me is on terms. As much as I think this whole "unique" thing is being both exaggerated and overplayed, I really can't understand why anyone would want him for 8 years? We've already seen his willingness to take significant chunks of seasons off, and we also saw him dip in production last season. Moreover, it's both logical and historically accurate to say that physical players wear down faster over time. Even if you could convince me he's worth $7M (I have him pegged at $5.5-6), why in the world would we want him for 8 years? Is this just to lower his cap hit?

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

Where you lose me is on terms. As much as I think this whole "unique" thing is being both exaggerated and overplayed, I really can't understand why anyone would want him for 8 years? We've already seen his willingness to take significant chunks of seasons off, and we also saw him dip in production last season. Moreover, it's both logical and historically accurate to say that physical players wear down faster over time. Even if you could convince me he's worth $7M (I have him pegged at $5.5-6), why in the world would we want him for 8 years? Is this just to lower his cap hit?

Yes.

The shorter the term, the higher the Cap hit. I rather give him the term so the Cap hit can be the lowest possible.

 

[Estlin]

This is a great post.

I'd be happy if they could sign Looch for 4 or 5 years. I think it's reasonable to expect him to slow down at age 32- 34 or so. I don't agree with those who say he's already on the downside of his career. I think he's got some real good years left in him.

Honestly, I'm more concerned with Krejci's chronic hip than with Looch breaking down at 28 or 29 years of age.

I really doubt that Lucic will sign for less than seven years. He might go as low as six years, though.

 

[Kaoz]

Ahhh....my bad. If you're right, my mind is eased a little!

I believe it was reported early on that it was the hip. Krejci and Julien made allusions to it not being so later on.

http://causewaycrowd.com/2014/11/02/report-david-krejci-suffers-hip-injury/
http://www.todaysslapshot.com/nhl-east/atlantic/chroniciling-krejcis-recent-injury-history/

Don't think anyone really knows what was wrong with him at the start of the season other then it was lower body. The previous hip surgery in 09 made the reported hip injury that much more worrisome.

Nagging hip issues and Knee injuries tend to go hand in hand which probably doesn't help matters when it comes to the speculation considering Krejci's later injury was to the knee.

 

[BNHL]

Ahhh....my bad. If you're right, my mind is eased a little!

After a little googling I see mostly references to a groin injury,a couple refer to a hip injury and then on breakup day it actually says hip/groin injury. If it's the hip,that's worrisome. Abdominal? Also worrisome and has caused retirements. Groin? Another term for every muscle,ligament and tendon above the thigh and below the waist.