What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[Big Phil]

An interrupted season in 2020 which wasn't a big deal but cost him 10-12 games and then a shortened year for the 2nd time in his career - at 56 games.

One thing to consider, Ovie is 35, will be 36 in September. 7 goals in 19 games is not very Ovechkin-like and he's not looked like himself this year. Granted, a lot of players his age are "losing it". Crosby, Malkin come to mind also as not playing the best hockey this year. Part of it could be age, and we saw similar things like this after 2004 and 2012 lockouts where a player in his 30s quite often just can't afford to have this much time taken off at this age and get back to his past play. He is at the 2017 level where he had 33 goals in 82 games, before ringing off Rocket Richard trophies the last three years. You never want to count him out, or say that perhaps his goal scoring is drying up (to his standards) but he hasn't looked the same this year.

9.6% shot percentage, the lowest in his career since 2011. 79 shots on net, good for a surprising 15th in the NHL. Coming from a guy who led the NHL in shots 11 times.

Basically to do the math here we have to look at it like this. Let's say he gets 20 goals this year. Or we'll give him 25 to be generous. 25 goals at the end of this year puts him at 731. He'll pass Phil Esposito this year for 6th all-time, but 731 ties him with Marcel Dionne for 5th.

So at 36 years old, 16 seasons in he'll have 731, let's say, heading into 2021-'22. He'll need:

163 goals to tie Gretzky.

So 4 more seasons of 41 goals in order to beat him. That gives him 895. That is factoring in that he could want to play in the KHL at the end of his career and I assume if Ovechkin isn't an elite goal scorer that he won't hang around the NHL with 25-30 goal seasons to end his career. That just isn't him. That's my guess.

So I think this season has put him further back and I think it has decreased his chances.

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[HugginThePost]

I'll go with..........zero.

 

[Quinning]

He's not gonna catch Wayne but it doesn't matter: when you factor in the era, multiple lockdowns and shortened seasons, he is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I feel like he’s always a guy that’s ended the season really strong. Even then he’s on a 30 goal pace at 35 and we’re disappointed with that performance. It’s crazy the standards he’s set and even if he doesn’t catch Gretzky it’s hard to argue that he isn’t the greatest goal scorer to ever play the game.

 

[EdJovanovski]

51%

 

[hamzarocks]

70%

Think He'll play until he breaks the record. After this year I see that being 3.5 seasons

4 year 36-40 million deal he probably gets with the capitals

 

[Three On Zero]

Zero

 

[filinski77]

I’d say 50%. I think it really comes down to whether or not he wants to stay in the league into his early 40s or not.

 

[Mikeshane]

Zero. It just becomes harder and harder to fight off decline with each year that goes by.

 

[hockeeyyy]

It's pretty unlikely at this point. Even if he scores 30 goals over the next five years, he will still be 31 goals behind. He's 35 years old.

But without a doubt, the greatest goal scorer of all-time.

 

[TeeTee]

Zero.

His skating is getting bad. He cant handle the puck. He really isnt even involved in the flow of the game anymore. I watch a lot of Caps games and he rarely has the puck.

His minutes will start to decline due to his overall game.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

69.420%

 

[Killer Orcas]

50/50 depending on how long he wants to play. I don't see him getting 40 plus more than once after this season. He's gonna slow down he's not a spring chicken anymore age will catch him before he catches 99. His only shot is keep playing scoring at a much lower rate than he has up until now.

 

[amjay13]

I'd give him maybe a 15% chance. The shortened seasons/lockouts/suspensions cost him nearly 200 games. If he had half of those back he'd have another 50 goals and it would be much more likely.

 

[Oneiro]

Yeah, sub-20% now.

It's sad how we were robbed of two seasons of Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin.

 

[Butch 19]

He's not gonna catch Wayne but it doesn't matter: when you factor in the era, multiple lockdowns and shortened seasons, he is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

Still bitter about Gretzky not signing in Vancouver I see?

 

[93gilmour93]

Don't see him catching 99 at this point

 

[zar]

Same as before... I am 99% sure he has an 8% chance.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He really need these last two years to be full seasons.

 

[TheAngryHank]

Wonder if there is a futures bet on it and what the odds are.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

1%. So I’m saying there’s a chance

 

[PaulD]

Chances decreased since Wednesday when he speared a player in the nuts.

 

[smack66]

1% because anything is possible. looks like he's getting heavier on the skates.

 

[jetsforever]

People saying 0 are forgetting who this guy is.
Gretzky's total is pretty high though, although Ovi has aged gracefully with about 50 goals the past 3 years.
I'll go with 30%.

 

[Riseonfire]

10%? Like someone else said, it won’t matter as he’s already the GOAT for goal scoring.