What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now? (Part 2)

[Big Phil]

Mod Note: This is part 2 of the discussion. Continued from here: What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

An interrupted season in 2020 which wasn't a big deal but cost him 10-12 games and then a shortened year for the 2nd time in his career - at 56 games.

One thing to consider, Ovie is 35, will be 36 in September. 7 goals in 19 games is not very Ovechkin-like and he's not looked like himself this year. Granted, a lot of players his age are "losing it". Crosby, Malkin come to mind also as not playing the best hockey this year. Part of it could be age, and we saw similar things like this after 2004 and 2012 lockouts where a player in his 30s quite often just can't afford to have this much time taken off at this age and get back to his past play. He is at the 2017 level where he had 33 goals in 82 games, before ringing off Rocket Richard trophies the last three years. You never want to count him out, or say that perhaps his goal scoring is drying up (to his standards) but he hasn't looked the same this year.

9.6% shot percentage, the lowest in his career since 2011. 79 shots on net, good for a surprising 15th in the NHL. Coming from a guy who led the NHL in shots 11 times.

Basically to do the math here we have to look at it like this. Let's say he gets 20 goals this year. Or we'll give him 25 to be generous. 25 goals at the end of this year puts him at 731. He'll pass Phil Esposito this year for 6th all-time, but 731 ties him with Marcel Dionne for 5th.

So at 36 years old, 16 seasons in he'll have 731, let's say, heading into 2021-'22. He'll need:

163 goals to tie Gretzky.

So 4 more seasons of 41 goals in order to beat him. That gives him 895. That is factoring in that he could want to play in the KHL at the end of his career and I assume if Ovechkin isn't an elite goal scorer that he won't hang around the NHL with 25-30 goal seasons to end his career. That just isn't him. That's my guess.

So I think this season has put him further back and I think it has decreased his chances.

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[Pantokrator]

I think there is no doubt he breaks it unless he gets hurt. And he doesn't get hurt.

 

[tread102]

Has there ever been a more prolific goal scorer that was so boring. Early on in his career he use to score highlight reel goals. Now I watch the highlights and every goal is the same. He might end up with the most goals all time but there will be ten plus players with better highlights

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

2009 WSH v PIT: Sid 8G 13P < Ovi 8G 14P WSH lost
2016 WSH v PIT: Sid 0G 2P << Ovi 2G 7P WSH lost
2018 WSH v PIT: Sid 3G 8P > Ovi 3G 7P WSH won

Crosby 3 Stanley Cups > Ovechkin 1 Stanley Cup.

Truly the only thing that matters.

 

[BallardEra]

Has there ever been a more prolific goal scorer that was so boring. Early on in his career he use to score highlight reel goals. Now I watch the highlights and every goal is the same. He might end up with the most goals all time but there will be ten plus players with better highlights

He’ll probably get 895 into an empty net just for you.

 

[43sfriends]

lmao, the critics in this thread have been reduced to

- he shouldnt celebrate up 6-1
-he's actually not good for some reason because he shoots a lot
- I actively watch him play rooting for him not to score
- he scores boring goals

What a sad bunch you are.

 

[Beukeboom]

A lot to unpack here. Throwing out +/- is obviously completely terrible. Ovi is a plus player overall throughout his career, and has only gone negative 5 seasons (imagine trying to shit on Crosby for having 2 negative seasons and a 0 season - no one cares).

Your second main point was that Ovi struggled to hit point/gp. That’s fair I suppose, but you have to remember how low the scoring was in the 2010s:

-2011: Ovi was 7th in points, and only 7 players had 82+ points
- 2012: Only 6 guys had 82+ points (also Ovis worst season of his career)
- 2013: Ovi 3rd in points
- 2014: Ovi 8th in points, and only 5 guys had 82+ points
- 2015: Ovi 4th in points, and only 3 guys had 82+ points
- 2016: Only 5 guys with 82+ points

Gotta think of how 50g and 80p in the early and mid 2010s was like putting up 65g and 105p+ in the 80s.

Ovechkin post peak was first in goals by a large margin (25%), and third in points. He was scoring 50 goals and winning rockets by 10 goals over #2. In the end, Ovis career has been so unique that you can’t just compare it to other players and assume it wasn’t as good simply because of his raw numbers.

But a top ten player of all times shouldn't be outproduced by 5-6-7-8 guys on a regular basis. Just my opinion. It's top ten of all time. That is a beyond insane group to belong to, and Ovie is not one of them.

 

[gtrower]

But a top ten player of all times shouldn't be outproduced by 5-6-7-8 guys on a regular basis. Just my opinion. It's top ten of all time. That is a beyond insane group to belong to, and Ovie is not one of them.

He’s arguable right now. If he breaks 894 it’s not even a discussion. #5 is in play at that point.

But again, this isn’t the point of the thread.

 

[Jeremy Hronek]

Has there ever been a more prolific goal scorer that was so boring. Early on in his career he use to score highlight reel goals. Now I watch the highlights and every goal is the same. He might end up with the most goals all time but there will be ten plus players with better highlights

Ovechkin had more highlight reel goals in his first 10 seasons than anyone ever imo, weird criticism.

 

[heretik27]

Just checked shots on goal. Ovi already has over 600 more than Wayne and many more than Lemieux. Starting to rethink this whole, greatest goal scorer of all time thing.

I think it's only logical he has to shoot more. Modern goalies are massive with larger equipment and a better style. You will likely never see another Darren Pang at 5'5" in an NHL crease again.

 

[tread102]

Ovechkin had more highlight reel goals in his first 10 seasons than anyone ever imo, weird criticism.

Ah no. 35 year old Mario was still scoring amazing goals in the dead puck era. Ovi is floating waiting for the perfect pass to let it rip.

When it’s all said and done there will be 10 plus players with better highlight reels than Ovi.

 

[Ovie's Neighbor]

There have been about 7500 skaters in the NHL since the league started. Of those 7500, only 5 have more goals, and that number will soon be 4. And there are posters here saying he isn’t one of the best players ever???

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Has there ever been a more prolific goal scorer that was so boring. Early on in his career he use to score highlight reel goals. Now I watch the highlights and every goal is the same. He might end up with the most goals all time but there will be ten plus players with better highlights

Teams know it's coming, still can't stop it.

 

[Kuz]

[Mod: Quoted post was deleted.]

The stats just prove Ovechkin is way more special player that are able to break records while Crosby is just another high scoring player, but nothing that really seperates him from a bunch of other really good players. Guess noone of Gretzky's records except points and goals matter aswell then. Stanley Cup is a team achievement and should matter very little comparing two players.

With how Edmonton have been managed if things doesnt change McDavid might never win it. Even tough he is clearly the best player of his generation.

 

[Weztex]

There have been about 7500 skaters in the NHL since the league started. Of those 7500, only 5 have more goals, and that number will soon be 4. And there are posters here saying he isn’t one of the best players ever???

Nobody is questioning that he's one of the best player ever. But it's debatable to see where he ranks now and when it's all said and done. Having him outside of top-10 is a valid take depending on what you value the most.

 

[Randyne]

Crosby 3 Stanley Cups > Ovechkin 1 Stanley Cup.
Truly the only thing that matters

I don't think that he won those cups all alone. If that was true he wouldn't pass Ovechkin who played better than Sid when... your quote... it mattered most.

 

[Ovie's Neighbor]

Nobody is questioning that he's one of the best player ever. But it's debatable to see where he ranks now and when it's all said and done. Having him outside of top-10 is a valid take depending on what you value the most.

I have no problem with him being out of the top 10 players. Top 10 forwards now that’s insane. But if you talk about defensemen and goalies too then sure.

 

[txpd]

Its a myth that all his goals look the same.

 

[tread102]

There have been about 7500 skaters in the NHL since the league started. Of those 7500, only 5 have more goals, and that number will soon be 4. And there are posters here saying he isn’t one of the best players ever???

He’s a top 20 player that’s not debatable

 

[Hatfield]

Ah no. 35 year old Mario was still scoring amazing goals in the dead puck era. Ovi is floating waiting for the perfect pass to let it rip.

When it’s all said and done there will be 10 plus players with better highlight reels than Ovi.

How many in the top 10?

This seems like sour grapes. And it’s not like he’s racking up junk goals like Andreychuk or Ciccarelli (not that there’s anything wrong with that either).

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Just checked shots on goal. Ovi already has over 600 more than Wayne and many more than Lemieux. Starting to rethink this whole, greatest goal scorer of all time thing.

It takes more shots to score on non cardboard cutout goaltenders.

 

[Goose]

Crosby 3 Stanley Cups > Ovechkin 1 Stanley Cup.

Truly the only thing that matters.

Yeah it’s true. Like how we all talk about Claude Provost with his 9 cups and how much better he is than Gretzky with his - lol - 4 sad little cups.

 

[Demandedace]

I’m not even going to give some of these posts the courtesy of being called hot takes, they’re just plain old bad lol

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

It takes more shots to score on non cardboard cutout goaltenders.

Yeah, and Ovi with his almost weightless stick

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Yeah, and Ovi with his almost weightless stick

Touche. However, you also have a lot more players willing to block shots with much better equipment.