Why would this be very likely?
The Rangers had a better point percentage than the Canadiens last year.
Disclosure long post explaining rationale
Long story short is I think the 4th best Atlantic team (leafs) is better than the 4th best metro team (penguins). And thus would be far more likely for us to see a 5th Atlantic (Habs) over a 5th metro as I think it would be harder to pass the leafs than the penguins.
I didn't say very likely...
I said more likely but the most likely outcome was both Rangers and Habs miss.
Also point percentages last year are statistically irrelevant as teams played were different.
I proposed it is more likely the Habs out play the 4th place team in the metro over Rangers outplayed the 4th best team in the Atlantic.
Let's say the Rangers are better than the Habs in 50% of simulations run next year (I think they will be very close in standings) . In how many of those 50% are they better than the leafs (my current puck for 4th in the atlantic)
I'd say very few.
Now in the remaining 1/3 how likely is it the Habs are now better than the Penguins (my 4th place team in the metro).
Considering I think the leafs will be a better regular season and possibly playoff team over the penguins and that the Habs and Rangers will be comparable I think it's more likely we see 5 Atlantic teams over 5 metro but the most likely outcome is 4 from each division.
Essentially the Top 7 are most predictable being in no order:
Tampa
Boston
Florida
Leafs
Isles
Caps
Canes
Leaving one wild card left for 1 of the following:
Habs
Penguins
Rangers
Flyers