What is the most important game to win in a series outside of game 7? Which game would you want a guaranteed win in?

[bobholly39]

Imagine this - your team is going into a huge series....it can be round 1, or finals....whatever you want. You get a magic wish that you can guarantee your team a win in a specific game number - which game do you choose and why?

I can see arguments for a lot of options.

Game 1 - Super important to win game 1 and take an early lead and create momentum. Flipside is - teams often start a series badly, and coming back from a 0-1 deficit really isn't that big a deal, and pretty common

Game 2 - This one is suprt important. If you won game 1 - you take a 2-0 lead, which is huge. If you lost game 1 - you really can't afford to also lose game 2, so this one is a must win.

Game 3 - Wow, so important on this one. If you're up 2-0 - this makes you go up 3-0 and pretty much guarantee a win. If you're down 0-2, unless you win this one, you're dead - but if you do win, it's now 1-2, momentum is on your side, and you have a chance to tie the series next game. And if it's tied 1-1 - well winning this game gives you the lead and the momentum to hopefully take a 3-1 strangle hold the following game.

Game 4 - Lots of possibilities with this one. If it's 3-0, you want to sweep, or avoid being swept. If it's 2-1, you absolutely want that 3-1 stranglehold, or to avoid it if you're already down a game.

Game 5 - Another key one. Especially in a 2-2 tie, you can't afford to go down 3-2. Going up 3-2, and giving yourself 2 chances to seal off series is huge.

Game 6 - Try not to cheat, and not vote for this one "simply because it guarantees you a game 7 and a chance to eliminate the other team". You can if you want I suppose. But outside of that factor - if your team was to win game 6, how good do you feel about them winning the series? More than if they had won a game 5, or 3, etc?



My personal choice - Game 3, followed by Game 5.

I figure it's never until game 3 a series faith is really sealed. Even if a team is up 2-0 - if the other team manages to win game 3....you can start turning things around. And if the series is tied, taking that 2-1 lead is huge.

Game 5 - Well you're either eliminating the other team, avoiding elimination.....or even more important, taking that 3-2 lead, giving you 2 chances to eliminate the opponent rather than being put on the verge of elimination yourself. Absolutely huge.

The least important games to me are probably:

Game 1, 4 and 6.

I figure game 1 so many teams start bad....it doesn't really matter.
Game 4 - if a team is up 3-0, the game is meaningless....win or lose, it'll probably end in a 5 max. This is more important when a team is up 2-1, but even then, I'd say less so than games 3 or 5.
Game 6. Outside of the 'guarantee of a game 7' logic, I simply don't think winning game 6 has a lot of impact on winning game 7. If you show me 20 games 7 and ask me to pick who I think is going to win, I would almost completely ignore which of the 2 teams won game 6 in making that prediction, I simply don't think momentum carries over to a game 7 often.

 

[ijuka]

Game 6, at 50% for winning the series, and 50% for being must-win. Every other game has a lower chance for it to be the series-clinching win, with it being completely impossible for games 1-3.

Game 5 for example, if you're at 2-2 then this game decides nothing. But for game 6, it's impossible for the game to not decide something.

 

[TanguaySauce]

Game 6 is the next most important as one poster said - you’re either closing out the series or fighting to live another day. Outside of that, game 1 would be my next choice.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

It's game 3, It's the game That swings a series.

Ask Ottawa about that, they lost game 3 in OT and they were finished.

Ask Florida about they, they won game 3 and it turned the series around, they were on the verge of being dead and they won game 3.

Game 3 is the swing game

 

[Bank Shot]

Historically the team that wins game 4 has the best chance of winning the series.

Game 1 67.8% 526–250 Sets tone early; especially strong at home
Game 2 72.1% 528–204 Increases greatly if also won Game 1
Game 3 67.1% 500–245 First road game usually; pivotal momentum swing
Game 4 82.0% 555–122 Often leads to a 3–1 series lead
Game 5 78.8% 496–133 Critical when series is tied 2–2
Game 6 71.1% 393–160 Often the clincher or forces Game 7

So the answer is game 4, followed closely by game 5. They are the two most important by a large margin.

 

[Summer Rose]

Historically the team that wins game 4 has the best chance of winning the series.

Game 1 67.8% 526–250 Sets tone early; especially strong at home
Game 2 72.1% 528–204 Increases greatly if also won Game 1
Game 3 67.1% 500–245 First road game usually; pivotal momentum swing
Game 4 82.0% 555–122 Often leads to a 3–1 series lead
Game 5 78.8% 496–133 Critical when series is tied 2–2
Game 6 71.1% 393–160 Often the clincher or forces Game 7

So the answer is game 4.

That's how I voted, but it was admittedly just based on "vibes" at the time.

I appreciate you posting numbers that back up my feeling.

 

[banks]

I understand the reasons for the other picks and votes. Saying game 6 is a bit smart because it's so important if you get that far. And the stats for game 4/5 are cool and interesting.

But I picked Game 1 without the slightest hesitation. I can't believe it isn't getting more votes.

Consider the fact that a game 1 win means you're instantly starting off with an advantage. None of the other picks guarantee you a lead in the series, but game 1 does.

Then add the momentum and confidence factor. Doubts for the other team can creep in early. It's just so important! Like the first goal in a game, it sets a tone.

And picking a win in game 1 means the series might not even be a long one. Picking the game 6 win means that your series went 6 games (or even 7). That's a close series no matter how you look at it. But picking the win in game 1 leaves you with the possibility of closing it out in 4 or 5. That's a big deal if this isn't the SCF and you have more games to play after this.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Math say all game hold the same nominal value.
Statistically game 4 hold the probability game as who is more likely to win.
Momentum wise it depends if you're the home or away team.

The reality is it's all fun and game, but that only in our head. All game are equally important, hold the same value and the only influential factor is the home team might have an extra shot at playing in theirs house, with theirs fans and have the last change.

 

[bobholly39]

Historically the team that wins game 4 has the best chance of winning the series.

Game 1 67.8% 526–250 Sets tone early; especially strong at home
Game 2 72.1% 528–204 Increases greatly if also won Game 1
Game 3 67.1% 500–245 First road game usually; pivotal momentum swing
Game 4 82.0% 555–122 Often leads to a 3–1 series lead
Game 5 78.8% 496–133 Critical when series is tied 2–2
Game 6 71.1% 393–160 Often the clincher or forces Game 7

So the answer is game 4, followed closely by game 5. They are the two most important by a large margin.

Different ways of looking at it of course. From my perspective though - Game 4 is so often meaningless. 4 possible scenarios:

If you're up 3-0. Game 4 doesn't matter, win or lose, you're winning the series
If you're down 0-3, Game 4 doesn't matter, win or lose, you're losing the series
If you're up 2-1 - losing game 4 hurts very little. It's one of the easiest losses to absorb. You end up tied 2-2, and it's still anyone's series.

The only scenario where game 4 is truly important is if you're down 1-2 in a series - and you can't really afford to go down 1-3. But that's only a 1 in 4 chances that that's where your team is going into a game 4.

In comparison - game 3, or game 5, is a "must win" in every scenario.

Game 3 - whether you're tied 1-1 and want the lead and momentum, or up 2-0/down 2-0 and want to either take a stranglehold on series or avoid one - it's an absolute must-win game.

Game 5 is also must-win - if you're tied 2-2, taking the lead to go up 3-2 is a huge thing so late in the series. And obviously - if you're down 3-1, and win game 5, you actually have a chance at a comeback (compared to being down 0-3, winning game 4, it's still almost impossible). And if you're up 3-1, well winning game 5 wins the series.

I actually think game 4 is the least important game in a series, in some ways.

 

[North Cole]

Game 4 followed by game 1. It's the most pivotal. You're either potentially tying the series instead of going down 3-1 and hearing a death knell, or in good cases you're going up 3-1 and taking a stranglehold. I dont have the math but I'd think it's statistically more likely to see 3-1 either way in a series than 2-2. So game 4 cannot be understated.

Also, in the very worst case scenario it's the last guaranteed game and if you've shit the bed to be down 3-0 - it's must win anyways. Then obviously every game the rest of the way is important but you don't get to play 5 without winning 4.

 

[Tripledeke333]

It’s def Game 4. As long as you aren’t down 3 games already, a win means you either take the series or force 3-1 ( as opposed to 2-2) or even the series at 2-2 (vs going down 3-1).

The 3-1 lead is strong and by winning game 4 you either take that or avoid giving it to your opponent.

 

[Tripledeke333]

Historically the team that wins game 4 has the best chance of winning the series.

Game 1 67.8% 526–250 Sets tone early; especially strong at home
Game 2 72.1% 528–204 Increases greatly if also won Game 1
Game 3 67.1% 500–245 First road game usually; pivotal momentum swing
Game 4 82.0% 555–122 Often leads to a 3–1 series lead
Game 5 78.8% 496–133 Critical when series is tied 2–2
Game 6 71.1% 393–160 Often the clincher or forces Game 7

So the answer is game 4, followed closely by game 5. They are the two most important by a large margin.

Interesting. Intuitively game 4 makes the most sense but interesting to see stats back it up.

 

[Shark Finn]

Judging by the fact that a series always takes at least four games, I'm going with game 4.

 

[ForumNamePending]

Based on vibes and apparently backed up by math (thx nerds! ) it's game 4.

Up 3-0... Obvious
Down 3-0... Well at least your team has avoided being swept
Up 2-1... Take command of the series
Down 2-1... Don't want to fall behind 3-1

 

[AM]

It’s always the next one.

 

[matsqq]

I think the question is a bit flawed.

Some series just go to 4 games, and then of course it's most important to win the 4th game. It's of course impossible to win or lose the 5th game in a series that go to just 4 games This will scew the statistics , how much depends on the proportion of all series that go to a game 4 vs how many that go to 5 games etc

Then it's also this thing with playing home and away , which will determined by the match number etc.

I would like the question to be put in a more precise way ...

One could even think that the question was for just those series that go to a game 7 unless you are more precise with the question ...

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Game 4 is the biggest tilt. In most cases, after the game you're either tied at 2 or one win away from clinching with a solid lead. It's the most critical game to win.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I understand the reasons for the other picks and votes. Saying game 6 is a bit smart because it's so important if you get that far. And the stats for game 4/5 are cool and interesting.

But I picked Game 1 without the slightest hesitation. I can't believe it isn't getting more votes.

Consider the fact that a game 1 win means you're instantly starting off with an advantage. None of the other picks guarantee you a lead in the series, but game 1 does.

Then add the momentum and confidence factor. Doubts for the other team can creep in early. It's just so important! Like the first goal in a game, it sets a tone.

And picking a win in game 1 means the series might not even be a long one. Picking the game 6 win means that your series went 6 games (or even 7). That's a close series no matter how you look at it. But picking the win in game 1 leaves you with the possibility of closing it out in 4 or 5. That's a big deal if this isn't the SCF and you have more games to play after this.

Dallas won game 1 in the WCF

LA won game 1 in the quarters

Leafs won game 1 vs Florida

In all three series, game 4 was the biggest tilt. In game 4, Oilers tied LA 2-2 after losing 2-0. Same for the Panthers vs the Leafs. In game 4 vs Dallas, Oilers took a commanding 3-1 lead instead of being tied.

 

[Cool Hand Puke]

Game 4…

You either:
1. win the series (sweep)
2. take a commanding 3-1 lead
3. tie the series at 2
4. Prevent a sweep.

It’s the most pivotal regardless of games 1-3.

 

[MiscBrah]

Game 4 is most important AINEC.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Game 4. Unless it's a sweep, you're either going up 3-1 or tying it at 2.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Game 4 cause that’s the only way to start the reverse sweep

 

[BMOK33]

2 and 4 to me always seem like the most important

 

[Silky Johnson]

Interesting that the right answer is the least selected. 79% of teams that win game 5 win the series. Of course 100% of teams that win game 7 win the series, but not enough series get there to make it the correct answer.

The statistically correct answer is game 5.

Edit. Game 4 is a common answer but only 68% of teams that win the game go on to win the series. Obviously if it's a sweep it's pretty decisive but if not it is dramatically less predictive.

 

[Hockey2Hockey]

I think back to the Red Wings/Pens clashes.

In 08, Detroit's game 4 win essentially ended the series. Even after game 5 OT loss, I never thought for one minute they would lose the series. Game 4 was the swing game.

In 09, the Staal shorthanded goal down 1-0 and 2-1 in the series was the turning point. It gave Pittsburgh more belief they could actually beat these guys. At this point I thought it was 50/50. Pittsburgh had a bad game 5 but had two great games following that.

So game 4 is huge for me. Assuming it's 2-1 going into it.