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What If Matthews Isn’t 100% the Rest of the Way?

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conFABulator

conFABulator

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Apr 11, 2021
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Purely hypothetical, but what if Matthews is dealing with something that limits him down the stretch? Maybe it’s manageable, maybe he needs a procedure he could get done now but is putting off until the offseason. If he’s not at his 60-goal, two-way-dominant best, do we need to adjust expectations—and more importantly, adjust the lineup?

Right now, Berube sticks with Knies-Matthews-Marner for good reason. When they’re all healthy, it’s a dominant line that can handle matchups and drive play both ways. But if Matthews is limited, maybe we don’t keep leaning on that trio as much. Instead, what if we spread things out and run three strong, balanced lines?

A New Look:

Knies – Matthews – Domi
Matthews and Domi have shown flashes of chemistry before. This setup keeps Matthews in a top offensive role but lightens his two-way burden a bit. Plus, Domi just isn’t a fit on a shutdown line, so if we’re going to get more out of him, this might be the spot.

Holmberg – Tavares – Nylander
This one has worked recently. Holmberg is helping defensively, which is key because Tavares looked solid in that area earlier this season but has tailed off a bit lately. This keeps the line strong offensively without being a liability the other way.

McMann – Schenn? – Marner
Here’s where things get really interesting. This wouldn’t just be a shutdown line—it would be a nightmare for opposing coaches. Schenn and McMann are strong two-way players, and Marner has proven he can drive offense on his own. This unit could grind teams down physically while still generating offense, making it a real problem for other teams to match up against.

But the catch? We don’t have Schenn. If this is how we want to set things up, we need to go out and get a guy like him at the deadline. And that’s not going to be cheap. If we’re talking about Schenn with retention, Easton Cowan would likely be in play. That’s the kind of price it takes, and it’s a serious question of whether that’s the right move.

Lorentz – Kämpf – Järnkrok
A fourth line that can take a regular shift, bring energy, and all play on the PK. These guys wouldn’t just be placeholders—they’d have a real role, which makes them a smart use of fourth-line spots.

The Depth Factor:

Beyond these four lines, there’s still a solid group of depth options. We might lose a guy or two in deadline deals, but we’ll do whatever cap gymnastics we need to keep as many as possible. Pacioretty, Robertson, Dewar, Reaves, and Steeves give us plenty of flexibility heading into a long playoff run. We could even consider a depth move like Tanev, which might push someone like Järnkrok or Holmberg out of the lineup.

The Bottom Line:

If Matthews isn’t fully himself, the worst thing we can do is just pretend nothing’s wrong. Spreading things out makes the team more adaptable, gives us three lines that can score, and lets Matthews be effective without overloading him. The real question is whether we go all-in for a center like Schenn—because if we do, it’s going to cost.
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Swapping Holmberg and McMann aside, this is the optimal setup regardless of Mattys status. Love to see it.

But if Matty is unable to be a franchise 1C through this run then we can't gamble limited assets for a misguided one year push.

Just treat the tdl like any other time of the year: make moves that make sense for the remaining window in its entirety.

From what's public, the landscape isn't great, so poor Tre might again have to go 'hockey mode' and leverage borderline worthless assets to unearth players that show up next year in prominent roles with lofty pay raises, and see what damage we can do with skilled work around the fringes given our unfortunate circumstances.

Landing this era was never going to be easy.
 
We aren't winning anything with him playing like this regardless of rhe deadline additions.

Your best players have to be your best players.
 
He probably should be rested a lot throughout the remainder of the regular season anyway. With no personal goals to chase he won’t be giving 100%
 
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frizzer1 said:
Absolutely.
This is not the year to go all in.
If Matthews is healthy next year, do it then.
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He hasn’t been much of a difference maker in the playoffs when healthy so maybe they should punt this season if he’s injured and can’t give any more than he is now.
 
Nineteen67 said:
He hasn’t been much of a difference maker in the playoffs when healthy so maybe they should punt this season if he’s injured and can’t give any more than he is now.
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He took a game by himself last year and has shown flashes of being able to get the job done.

I dont doubt his ability to perform in the playoffs, but his mentality is questionable.

Sometimes I wonder if baseball ultimately would have been the better choice for him. Arizona might not be ready yet to develop cup leading winners in house.
 
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What if...???!?? Oh boy - let me cut the suspense - he is not and will not be 100%. I don't know how he could be with a compressed schedule and back to backs x1000. Barring something magical, he'll be who we've seen the last 6 months.
 
LeafEgo said:
He took a game by himself last year and has shown flashes of being able to get the job done.

I dont doubt his ability to perform in the playoffs, but his mentality is questionable.

Sometimes I wonder if baseball ultimately would have been the better choice for him. Arizona might not be ready yet to develop cup leading winners in house.
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I believe that mentality is part of ability and is factored into the overall evaluation of talent. He can skate well enough, has an elite shot, plays well defensively, but hasn’t been consistent when time and space limited. A lot of times that he was showing flashes had more to do the opposition than Matthews.
I think he’d perform well on team with a couple of alpha dogs. By now I figured he would have moved to a team like Vegas where he could blend in and do his thing and when decided to re-sign with Leafs it kind of signalled he has other interests.
 
Larcos_Unal said:
Matthews won't be 100% at any point this year. Makes me think going all in at the deadline will be a mistake cause you're not going far without your best player.
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Agree.

Defensive players are typically less coveted and less costly at the TDL. I vote for Brad going for boring, defensive type players who know how to limit other team chances. reduce the game down to an ugly slow trap style game, that plays for patience not pond hockey, smart not reckless. We already have a better than average Goalie tandem, our defence is probably the best we've had in 30 years. So instead of going the obvious route and trade the farm for a Rantenen type, trade little bit pieces for bottom of the line up players like Tanev's brother and other forwards that limit the other team chances. They should be the types that when you put out there you know they probably wont score but you also know the other team wont score. The types you can put up against the other teams top two lines and they just smother them.

Domi, Holmberg, Robertson, Dewar, Reaves, Timmins, Benoit should never see a minute of ice time in the playoffs, they are simply too leaky, too risky, too irresponsible when it comes to defensive play. They don't contribute enough offensively to make up for their leaky defensive games. Those are the types of players you need to replace.
 
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Hellcat said:
Agree.

Defensive players are typically less coveted and less costly at the TDL. I vote for Brad going for boring, defensive type players who know how to limit other team chances. reduce the game down to an ugly slow trap style game, that plays for patience not pond hockey, smart not reckless. We already have a better than average Goalie tandem, our defence is probably the best we've had in 30 years. So instead of going the obvious route and trade the farm for a Rantenen type, trade little bit pieces for bottom of the line up players like Tanev's brother and other forwards that limit the other team chances. They should be the types that when you put out there you know they probably wont score but you also know the other team wont score. The types you can put up against the other teams top two lines and they just smother them.

Domi, Holmberg, Robertson, Dewar, Reaves, Timmins, Benoit should never see a minute of ice time in the playoffs, they are simply too leaky, too risky, too irresponsible when it comes to defensive play. They don't contribute enough offensively to make up for their leaky defensive games. Those are the types of players you need to replace.
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You forgot Rielly.
 
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frizzer1 said:
Absolutely.
This is not the year to go all in.
If Matthews is healthy next year, do it then.
Click to expand...

No way I am running back next season, that would be total BS. Not sure if Matthews will ever be 100% anyway. He already missed games in the playoffs last year, this season he is not looking 100% either. So I can’t assume that next year he will be 100% all year. Time is ticking. You don’t have these guys in their primes forever. Tampa and Florida are not going away either.
 
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Suntouchable13 said:
No way I am running back next season, that would be total BS. Not sure if Matthews will ever be 100% anyway. He already missed games in the playoffs last year, this season he is not looking 100% either. So I can’t assume that next year he will be 100% all year. Time is ticking. You don’t have these guys in their primes forever. Tampa and Florida are not going away either.
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You don't want to run it back x 10?
 
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Suntouchable13 said:
No way I am running back next season, that would be total BS. Not sure if Matthews will ever be 100% anyway. He already missed games in the playoffs last year, this season he is not looking 100% either. So I can’t assume that next year he will be 100% all year. Time is ticking. You don’t have these guys in their primes forever. Tampa and Florida are not going away either.
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We can, and we will!!
 
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The way Matthews is playing in 2024-25, it’s hard to fathom he’s emotionally, mentally and physically going to be able to drive a team through a playoff grind starting in April and ending in June. If Four Nations looked like maximum exertion for him, and he was only able to play 3 out of 4 games. The Stanley Cup is 16 games minimum and 28 games maximum.
 
Start doing some load management now so he has a chance to be %100 for round 1.

@conFABulator I like your suggestion to spread out the scoring and, as you said, 'lighten Matthews' 2-way burden.' But I feel like that isn't enough. He should be taking some games off here and there as "maintenance days".
 
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banks said:
Start doing some load management now so he has a chance to be %100 for round 1.

@conFABulator I like your suggestion to spread out the scoring and, as you said, 'lighten Matthews' 2-way burden.' But I feel like that isn't enough. He should be taking some games off here and there as "maintenance days".
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For sure. My "lighten the two way burden" may have been more specific to the playoffs. I also want us to win the division and start organizing our lineup this way.
 
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Stephen said:
The way Matthews is playing in 2024-25, it’s hard to fathom he’s emotionally, mentally and physically going to be able to drive a team through a playoff grind starting in April and ending in June. If Four Nations looked like maximum exertion for him, and he was only able to play 3 out of 4 games. The Stanley Cup is 16 games minimum and 28 games maximum.
Click to expand...

If the Sweden game had meant anything at all he would have played.
 
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