What has been the biggest factor in our turnaround?

[tiger_80]

Brown will be a force once he gets to 100%. I don't know when that will be but it should be in time for playoffs

Force like being 20 point a season player. The guy never scored 40 points when he was young and healthy. Edit. He actually scored 43 points once in 2019-2020.

 

[Sra1974]

I chose other because I do think it’s a mix of all of them except for the puck luck. The team got healthy, the coaching righted the ship in the short term and now seems to be paying off with real execution improvements. Then as the team got better they started to limit the incredible chances and then Skinner started playing better.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It's the combination of a lot of things. Better goaltending an execution, but the puck is also going in for them whereas early in the season they'd generate chances and just miss or be the victim of a good save. I wouldn't call it luck but hockey is a game of inches.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I think the biggest factor is that we started earning more points then other teams…

But seriously it’s a whole bunch of factors, stronger defensive play, better goaltending, better execution, lots of small tweaks both with the team overall and individual players and just plain old regression to the mean.

 

[Oilers]

I like Knoblauch and Coffey much better behind the bench, but man oh man does it suck for Woody who essentially got fired during a 13 game cold start where McDavid was injured after having two pretty successful seasons.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I like Knoblauch and Coffey much better behind the bench, but man oh man does it suck for Woody who essentially got fired during a 13 game cold start where McDavid was injured after having two pretty successful seasons.

Maybe I'm talking out of my ass here, but I felt that the system that Manson had in place was exploited by Vegas last year, and the entire hockey world knew that.

So Woody and Manson went into this year trying to transition our defense from man-on-man to zone defense, with horrible results.. Then after a string of losses, they abandoned it, and went back to man-on-man which was then was exploited by every team that watched the Vegas series.

I'm not sure the exact wrinkles Coffey has, but it's definitely more deliberate puck movement, and very few dump-ins, but its a system that seems to completely play to the strengths of our defenders.

 

[Fourier]

Bouchard and Ekholm together are having a fantastic season even after a shaky start.

I posted this in another thread where Bouchard was called the third worst defender in the league and where Bouchard was compared with Dobson offensively but where Dobson was called a legitimate #1D while Bouchard was a possible 3rd pairing defender at ES.

Here you go. 5 vs 5 this year. (Rankings are with all defensemen who have played at least 200 minutes this year.)

5 vs 5	Bouchard	Dobson
G	4​	4​
A	11​	13​
Pts	15​	17​
CF%	62.10 (2nd)	47.25 (157th)
CA/60	44.26 (4th)	69.32 (203rd)
xGF%	64.36 (1st)	48.07 (144th)
xGA/60	2.09 (11th)	3.01 (195th)
SCF%	62.79 (2nd)	46.49 (166th)
SCA/60	21.98 (9th)	33.44 (206th)
HDCF%	64.0 (2nd)	46.77 (163rd)
HDCA/60	8.83 (15th)	14.04 (202nd)

Note that Bouchard has played 2 fewer games. The pp specialist who can't play defense on a team that also can't play defense seems to have done reasonably well in this comparison.

And in anticipation of the yah but McDavid posts:

5 vs 5	With McDavid	Without McDavid	McDavid without Bouchard
CF%	62.5​	61.54​	56.87​
xGF%	64.09​	64.77​	58.03​
SCF%	62.67​	63​	57.44​
HDCF%	65.1​	62.38​	60.71​

TOI vs elites: Bouchard 33.8% Dobson 42.1%

To be fair this last stat certainly favours Dobson. It adds context to the numbers above for sure. But vs elites here are their numbers:

Bouchard CF% 61.60
Dobson 44.30%

Ekholm of course is a lot of the reason why the numbers are so good. But even so if Bouchard was the tire fire people often see him as the other teams in the league would find a way to exploit him. What he does is get the puck going in the opposite direction. Coffey has given him the green light to do more than just rim the puck in his own end. He obviously can't skate like Coffey but that part of his game actually reminds me somewhat of old #7. Another guy who had a rep for being bad defensively but who was one of the best of all time at getting the puck out of his zone.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Force like being 20 point a season player. The guy never scored 40 points when he was young and healthy. Edit. He actually scored 43 points once in 2019-2020.

He has one career playoff goal. It doesn't get better in postseason. People keep telling me he's "way better than say Bjugstad" I don't see it and Bjugstad scores goals in playoffs, has scored many more career goals, and has had much higher season pt totals.

Connor Brown just seems to have a cult following. Tell people he has the same production as Alex Chiasson and its crickets all day.

Oh wait, Brown is better at padding 2nd assists.

 

[tiger_80]

He has one career playoff goal. It doesn't get better in postseason. People keep telling me he's "way better than say Bjugstad" I don't see it and Bjugstad scores goals in playoffs, has scored many more career goals, and has had much higher season pt totals.

Connor Brown just seems to have a cult following. Tell people he has the same production as Alex Chiasson and its crickets all day.

Oh wait, Brown is better at padding 2nd assists.

Bjugstad had size, killed penalties, and was overall solid bottom 6 forward. Brown at this point is pretty much like AHL guys (Erne, Hamblin and the likes).

 

[Drivesaitl]

Maybe I'm talking out of my ass here, but I felt that the system that Manson had in place was exploited by Vegas last year, and the entire hockey world knew that.

So Woody and Manson went into this year trying to transition our defense from man-on-man to zone defense, with horrible results.. Then after a string of losses, they abandoned it, and went back to man-on-man which was then was exploited by every team that watched the Vegas series.

I'm not sure the exact wrinkles Coffey has, but it's definitely more deliberate puck movement, and very few dump-ins, but its a system that seems to completely play to the strengths of our defenders.

Theres so much focus on system but it doesn't tell the whole story. Under Knob Coffey our D are greenlit to make plays and to take whats there. To use their puck movement or skating to find open lanes. Under Manson it was about trying to limit any mistakes, which is inane, in hockey, a sport predicated on them. It always needs to be about risk/reward, not preventing players from making plays or benching them or sending them down to Bakersfield when something went wrong. Woody/Manson, if you weren't on their good side you were worried about making ANY mistake. Players from McLeod to Broberg, to Booch were impacted by that.

Its not huge mystery. The thing any player wants is to be able to come back to the bench after a mistake and know the bench has you, the coaching staff has your back. That is the case now.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Bjugstad had size, killed penalties, and was overall solid bottom 6 forward. Brown at this point is pretty much like AHL guys (Erne, Hamblin and the likes).

All the AHL guys have scored.

I like Knoblauch and Coffey much better behind the bench, but man oh man does it suck for Woody who essentially got fired during a 13 game cold start where McDavid was injured after having two pretty successful seasons.

But its exactly how Woody/Manson got their jobs. Same sort of thing. Oilers go on a heater last 3mths every season without fail. Woody win % benefits enormously from that as he had two back halfs in his resume here. Before Xmas, seasons combined Woody is an under .500 coach.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Maybe losing all those games was worth it for Jackson to get the coach he really wanted.

Knoblauch successfully switched the team to zone defense (please correct me if he went back on this). Woody and Manson tried and failed, and then went back to man on man. They were fired soon after, even after a win. I bet management viewed man to man as unacceptable. Vegas was laughing at how easy they sliced through our D in the playoffs. We had regular season success with man to man but playoffs is a different game.

At the cusp of Woody getting fired was the only time I've cheered for coach kill losses. Was so evident after playoffs we needed somebody that would utilize players effectively, that would have adjustments, and wouldn't just play favorites and push their minutes. As happens the bs walked. The coaching staff lost the club. Said often, but you don't get an 8-1 season opener game without something being seriously wrong.

 

[BlackDogg]

Easy. The fans simply never gave up.

 

[The Panther]

Oilers go on a heater last 3mths every season without fail. Woody win % benefits enormously from that as he had two back halfs in his resume here. Before Xmas, seasons combined Woody is an under .500 coach.

Sorry, but this is absolute nonsense.

Woody and (esp., I guess) Manson may have had their faults, but Woodcroft's tenure is the winningest such in franchise history, and they won three playoff series, something accomplished by exactly one coach (MacT) in the past 34 years.

Several players on the Oilers had career seasons last year under Woody's only full season.

Woody / Manson had 1.5 fantastic seasons as coaches, and then they had 12 bad games this year. It's just that expectations were so high (maybe too high) that 12 games of failure meant firing.

 

[The Panther]

Here's an amazing stat:

Nov. 10th 2023 (about 13 GP):
Vegas: .833%, 9 regulation wins
Edmonton: .208%, 2 regulation wins

Jan. 6th 2024 (35-37 GP):
Vegas: .628%, 16 regulation wins
Edmonton: .557%, 16 regulation wins

 

[Drivesaitl]

Sorry, but this is absolute nonsense.

Woody and (esp., I guess) Manson may have had their faults, but Woodcroft's tenure is the winningest such in franchise history, and they won three playoff series, something accomplished by exactly one coach (MacT) in the past 34 years.

Several players on the Oilers had career seasons last year under Woody's only full season.

Woody / Manson had 1.5 fantastic seasons as coaches, and then they had 12 bad games this year. It's just that expectations were so high (maybe too high) that 12 games of failure meant firing.

For one he doesn't have the highest winning % in history. Both Muckler and Sather had better. You're forgetting to factor in the 3pt era alters any comparison. 3pt game seasons elevate win percentage with respect to comparisons to 2pt game seasons.

Next, its indisputable that Woody/Mansons record collectively in first 3mths of seasons was bad. You can do the math. Its sub .500

Finally it indisputable the Oilers go on heaters every 2nd half of season. THAT is what elevates woodys win %.

The prior coaching lacked any adaptation and were completely schooled in 2nd round.

 

[The Panther]

The prior coaching lacked any adaptation and were completely schooled in 2nd round.

Except when they won the second round, I guess.

So, to summarize your argument: When they lost games in the first half, it was all Woody's fault.
When they won games in the second half and in the playoffs, it was due to a "heater" and Woody had nothing to do with it.

Should hold up in court.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Should be interesting results…

Under the coaching dept.

The Oilers now are a team that will give up possession of the puck and dump it in so as to punish Dmen and grind the corners. Something they refused to do before. They now have a forecheck and do not constantly give it away at the opposing teams blueline.

Lines are set. Nurse and Ceci play with the Drai line and Bouchard/Ekholm play with the McDavid line. You can see the Chemistry growing. Players are predicting where others will be on the ice.

That's a couple of the obvious ones.

 

[KCC]

Team is getting stops and the coaching change has helped tons. Under woody he changed the lines up basically every game and played McDavid and drai way too much. Under knobb, he tries to keep things the same for familiarity and chemistry. I like that.

And the biggest thing I’ve noticed is that he has preached for the team to play the same way And the team is listening. If the other team scores just to be patient And that it’ll come if you continue to play the right way.

 

[Fishy McScales]

Except when they won the second round, I guess.

So, to summarize your argument: When they lost games in the first half, it was all Woody's fault.
When they won games in the second half and in the playoffs, it was due to a "heater" and Woody had nothing to do with it.

Should hold up in court.

Yeah this is typically the extreme all discussion on this board gravitates toward and often eventually ends up near.

And for the record I think the team looks a lot better under Knob and the coaching change was the right call.

But I also thought the team looked better under Jay than Dave. And they looked better under Dave than Todd. And they looked better under Todd than Dallas. And they looked better under Dallas than... uh I mean you get where I'm going with this.

Coaches just have a best-before date and/or are victims of a bunch of different circumstances. Woody was a good coach and it pains me to read some of the pretty nasty stuff he periodically gets flinged his way around here after he got canned.

 

[brentashton]

Maybe posted elsewhere, but good interview with Coach K on the Kyper and Bourne Show yesterday.

Talks about the influence of Coffey, defence pairings, goaltending amongst other topics.

 

[nabob]

For one he doesn't have the highest winning % in history. Both Muckler and Sather had better. You're forgetting to factor in the 3pt era alters any comparison. 3pt game seasons elevate win percentage with respect to comparisons to 2pt game seasons.

Next, its indisputable that Woody/Mansons record collectively in first 3mths of seasons was bad. You can do the math. Its sub .500

Finally it indisputable the Oilers go on heaters every 2nd half of season. THAT is what elevates woodys win %.

The prior coaching lacked any adaptation and were completely schooled in 2nd round.

So when the team gets hot a wins a lot more than they lose you’re saying that those wins shouldn’t actually count when calculating their winning % ?? Does the same work with losing streaks? Or should only losing streaks (like the start of this season count and be considered “indisputable” evidence?? Oh never mind you make it clear that those losing streaks are all that actually should be considered lol.

There’s twisting the truth to have it fit the narrative, and then there’s spewing straight up nonsense BS.

This reminds me of so many social media blogs where people literally twist anything to support a narrative that becomes their crusade.

 

[ottawah]

Imo it is that McDavid and Ekholm were playing injured and now they aren't. Ekholm in particular was really bad

Exactly this, Ekholm was hurt, playing bad and bleeding GA. This really exposed the warts in Bouchards game. Overall that pairing has dropped their GA/60 down by over 1 per game. Ekholm in particular at his worst was about 3.8 GA/60, a terrible number for him. Back to his usual 2.5 GA/60 since has dropped this to 3.1 and lowering by game. And Bouchards has been dropping like a rock too. The other D men seemed to have stayed largely static. And never discount how forwards having confidence in their D encourages them to take more risks offensively and score more goals.

 

[tardigrade81]

Defense is playing way way way better, but that is in large part to the coaching change

I was sad to see Woody go, but this has been a season changing season. We are ridiculous right now. Playing some great hockey.

 

[Drivesaitl]

So when the team gets hot a wins a lot more than they lose you’re saying that those wins shouldn’t actually count when calculating their winning % ?? Does the same work with losing streaks? Or should only losing streaks (like the start of this season count and be considered “indisputable” evidence?? Oh never mind you make it clear that those losing streaks are all that actually should be considered lol.

There’s twisting the truth to have it fit the narrative, and then there’s spewing straight up nonsense BS.

This reminds me of so many social media blogs where people literally twist anything to support a narrative that becomes their crusade.

Except that McDrai have always heated up more backhalf. For some reason. Not sure why that is. The stats speak for themselves, the Oilers had incredibly poor starts EACH season with Woody/Manson. Thats the evidence.

In anycase I'm inobjective as claimed when it comes to Woody in particular. Can't stand him. So glad to be rid of him. Not like people here didn't feel the same about prior coaches. We all have our faves and our dislikes. Objectivity is largely illusion and humans not hardwired for it.

Except when they won the second round, I guess.

So, to summarize your argument: When they lost games in the first half, it was all Woody's fault.
When they won games in the second half and in the playoffs, it was due to a "heater" and Woody had nothing to do with it.

Should hold up in court.

The Oilers cause and effect of winning is the players playing to their utmost and as well as they can. Period. The coaches job is to facilitate that. Neither first half of that season did that occur. Both Woody seasons he ran a TC with problems. Both seasons the team was not adequately prepared to start the seasons. That isn't fiction, its what occurred. Woodys coaching prowess was apparently loading up the two best players in the world 25mins a night down the stretch trying to bag every win. Then having those same player less fresh in the playoffs.

Humans are incredibly poor court witnesses. As a species. Just further to your aside.

In anycase I'm not objective on Woody, as mentioned. I cede that.

I know I'm contractually expected to argue for a dozen more posts but no need. Feedback taken.