What happened to the Toronto Maple Leafs?

[WarriorofTime]

The way hockey work it is not easy-rewarding to have some long-term strategy it seem to me.

Take the RedWings, 2006-2022 only 2 coach, only 2 Gm since 1997, great ownership group and tradition, super consistent, long-term oriented.

Went all-in missing the playoff 9 years in a row since Datsyuk left....

They draft top 10 in :
2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, 7 years in a row.

In 2017 they acquired via trade of veterans:
2-3-3-3-5-6-7 round
Lost:
5-7

In 2018 they got (some conditional not sure if they all triggered)
1-2-2-3-3-4-7

In 2019: 2-3
2020: 2-2-2-4

They entered the reconstruction with Svechnikov-Mantha-Larkin a promising start, Bertuzzi would show Top 6 forward sign soon enough.

Never traded away a single important prospect or first 3 round draft pick to accelerate the process, it was clear to them Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen left, Kronwall was not a star anymore, reconstruction, they won a lot and did not miss the playoff since forever so people will be ok with it.

And what happened.... This is not NFL football where 2-3 round pick as incredible value and let you possible pick the best player in the world at the position not yet in the NFL that will help you right away or next year because they are 21-22 already (and because there is like 24 positions and short career). All those picks.... do not mean much, it is more like the NBA in a sense.

Even first round pick, I would say even first overall pick, you better be in a strong year to matter that much, getting a Taylor Hall or better, you are on the lucky one.

We often think about the champion that draft their core, but do not keep track of those you tried 5 years plan and failed...

There are certainly no guarantees, timing of when you rebuild matters a lot towards a ceiling as well. Sometimes you get stretches of multiple uninspiring years that don't have a very deep field of elite gamebreaking talent so even if you draft ok, you're just getting pretty good players instead of other years where you can have multiple superstars in consecutive drafts and really set teams rebuilding at that time well. COVID probably worst time to be rebuilding (young players not getting same level of development, established players still playing in bubble and more access to private facilities, etc.) which would favor competitive teams/re-tooling teams to hang around that level longer. Downer draft years compounded more if you pick some of the wrong players, aren't hitting any homeruns on your later picks, have a fairly uninspiring GM who is either doing the wrong things or just not doing anything and waiting around for draft picks to come rescue you. Drafting usually gives you good foundation and is best way to acquire franchise superstar talent, but you do have to do some work from there usually. Recent trend seem to be that rebuilding takes a really long time. Most of the teams at the top now had very extended periods of being bad, and most of the teams coming out of their rebuilds or trying to have taken a long time too (Buffalo in class of their own, but also Detroit, Ottawa, Anaheim, Utah and then looking behind them teams like San Jose, Chicago still a few years even if things go right as well)

 

[Strangle]

First real memories I have are the pat burns leafs. They were structured, as burns teams usually are. They had some success reaching a couple conference finals in a row.

Then we get into the sundin era which takes you until the late 2000s. There were some good teams in there, but never really a team you would consider a significant cup threat. They kept trying to reload instead of a serious investment in a youth movement which eventually got them to hit rock bottom.

Which brings us to the last decade and the matthews era. It's by far the most talented era of the leafs that I've seen, but the playoff record remains dismal with only 2 playoff wins in that time. This era of the team reminds me of the Sharks under Doug Wilson ... but even the Sharks made the finals once although some of their best guys were past their prime by that point.

If I could point to one issue that has plagued this franchise over these decades, I guess it would be the general unwillingness to invest in a long term youth plan. That only happened just prior to the matthews era.

You’ve got it pretty right.

At least in my life time the leafs had been run in a “draft-shmaft” type of way.

The only time the leafs have taken the draft seriously in my lifetime was the run of Kadri, Reilly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

And that just happens to be the current iteration of the maple leafs we are watching now.

From the point they drafted Wendel Clark, until the draft run where they finally ended up picking Matthews …. The maple leafs did not consider building through the draft as the best way to build a winning hockey team.

There were a lot of things happening on the sidelines, but this is (for me) the big, glaring, obvious reason for such little success

 

[Strangle]

Both Sabres and Leafs would block any Hamilton team. I think a 2nd Toronto team would work best being located outside the inner city, out in the suburbs (Markha, Richmond Hill, Vaugh, etc.). Games could be cheaper and attract fans not wealthy enough for Leafs games or hate commuting downtown.

In Europe, a city Toronto's size would have 6+ teams.

I agree with you, a second Toronto team should be in the surrounding Greater Toronto Area.

Driving into downtown Toronto (and parking) to see a game is almost as off putting as the ti let prices themselves.

Driving over the bridge into Hamilton would suck as well

Markham, Vaughn, Mississauga, etc is the better way to go

You could even call them The Greater Toronto HC for the ultimate troll job lol

“Do you cheer for Toronto?”

“No, Greater Toronto!”

Lol

 

[MadLuke]

Most of the teams at the top now had very extended periods of being bad,

The top 6 this season were Jets-Capitals-Vegas-Leafs-Stars-Kings

Vegas is just hard to handle here, expension like that does not fit any mole.

If we take 2016-2022 has the time teams would have been bad and rebuilding to be good in 2025

In wins, Capitals were number 1, Jets 13, Leafs 8th, Stars 11, Kings 22.

I imagine if we go back far enough we would see a point were they were, but... that would be true for every team pretty much.

An argument could be made that good for the regular season, but playoff need elite gamebreaking talent which put Colorado-Oilers ahead of that group and those were famously bad for a good while not so long ago.

The Panthers, not sure fit the mold that much, I think Tampa-Panthers-Kings.... nice climate reconstruction, nice climate or tax (Dallas) reconstruction is powerful versus draft pick....

Their 8 best scorer had not a single high Dallas first round draft pick I think. Heiskanen is pretty much the only piece, it is maybe their biggest one too, but still.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The top 6 this season were Jets-Capitals-Vegas-Leafs-Stars-Kings

Vegas is just hard to handle here, expension like that does not fit any mole.

If we take 2016-2022 has the time teams would have been bad and rebuilding to be good in 2025

In wins, Capitals were number 1, Jets 13, Leafs 8th, Stars 11, Kings 22.

I imagine if we go back far enough we would see a point were they were, but... that would be true.

An argument could be made that good for the regular season, but playoff need elite gamebreaking talent which put Colorado-Oilers ahead of that group and those were famously bad for a good while not so long ago.

The Panthers, not sure fit the mold that much, I think Tampa-Panthers-Kings.... nice climate reconstruction, nice climate or tax (Dallas) reconstruction is powerful versus draft pick....

Their 8 best scorer had not a single high Dallas first round draft pick I think. Heiskanen is pretty much the only piece, it is maybe their biggest one too, but still.

2016 draft picks only like 26 years old this year? Just very long time. Toronto, Atlanta/Winnipeg, Edmonton, Florida, Carolina all very bad for long time. Washington unexpected team this year when most would expect they’d be Pittsburgh by now (first time winning a playoff series since 2018), Vegas unique where never re-built with expansion draft and then constant Aggression/re-tooling (all in every year will catch up eventually but hasn’t yet), Dallas crushed it with a few drafts to avoid lengthy rebuild.

 

[MadLuke]

2016 draft picks only like 26 years old this year?

2012-2018 windows maybe ? (just before your 2012 start serious decline, but 2020 start their prime)

Kings-Caps-Jets-Stars were all middle of the road to very good during that time. But they do not have the high end game breaker that the bottom of the league Leafs-Oilers-Avs of that era can have.

Coyote does not really count, because of ownership, but Sabres of that era did not lead to much either, while the Bruins-Rangers relatively chugged along... It is a mix bag, without a clean cycle I think.

 

[vikash1987]

The playoff fragility is something particularly unique to this toronto core, but I think they aren't the only Canadian team that struggles with the lack of long term strategy.

In montreal, for example, I dont ever recall the habs ever going through a dedicated multi year rebuild plan until after the 2021 finals run. It was usually about trying to fill holes to get to the playoffs year after year since the 90s.

What is the result? It's a team that has never missed the playoffs for more than 3 years in a row in their franchise history, but also a team that would never be labeled as a serious threat for the cup (aside from 2009 which ended up being a disaster anyways).

I live in the Vancouver area and I can tell you for sure that Canucks fans will never equate their owner to having a long term strategy either.

Yes, well, in the cases of the other Canadian teams you mentioned: the fact that management took things year by year, without solid long-term planning, didn’t keep them from occasional playoff success. I guess this same fact just marinated differently for the Leafs.

 

[Crosby2010]

You can't blame Ballard anymore. But you could for a while at least. From I would say the mid 1960s onward you could blame him. He was getting more control over the team, John Bassett eventually resigned, Stafford Smythe died. So it was just Ballard after that. Yes he wanted to win, but he went about it all wrong. Things were taken personally with him, he was hard to deal with, cheap, etc. Drove the franchise to the ground starting in the 1970s and more so in the 1980s. The Leafs winning in 1967 was more of a last kick at the can than anything Ballard did. They got lucky with Sittler, Salming and McDonald as draft picks, otherwise they'd have been horrible instead of at least respectable in the 1970s.

It wasn't really until after his death in 1990 that they improved. Cliff Fletcher coming in and making the Gilmour trade really changed things, but for whatever reason that team just couldn't be maintained. The Quinn eras it always just seemed like a tinge of mismanagement was only a footstep away. I don't know how to explain it. Then there was the idea that the Leafs sold out every game regardless, so why did management need to try? I honestly think they have always wanted to win, as does Shanahan today, because to win in Toronto would be huge! Legendary.

But this is the longest drought in Stanley Cup history. It will be 59 years next year, and less hope now more than the last few years. I don't believe in curses, but they've treated players poorly over the years like Keon, and then even Sundin at the end. They've fired the wrong people and it wasn't until the early 1990s when the old timers could finally come back and be part of the alumni program. Paul Henderson himself had Ballard spot him at the Gardens sometime in the 1980s and got him tossed from the Gardens. Henderson politely left himself but never returned under the Fletcher era began.

So I really don't know what it is. We are now starting to enter Boston Redsox territory (1918 to 2004: 86 years) so if you can find comparisons for how they blew it then you might have some answers.

 

[WarriorofTime]

2012-2018 windows maybe ? (just before your 2012 start serious decline, but 2020 start their prime)

Kings-Caps-Jets-Stars were all middle of the road to very good during that time. But they do not have the high end game breaker that the bottom of the league Leafs-Oilers-Avs of that era can have.

Coyote does not really count, because of ownership, but Sabres of that era did not lead to much either, while the Bruins-Rangers relatively chugged along... It is a mix bag, without a clean cycle I think.

With 20 years of salary cap era, let's use convenient cutoff points of 10 years/10 years, sort by playoff wins.

2006-2015 Playoffs:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

1) Chicago, 2) Detroit, 3) Pittsburgh, 4) Boston, 4) Anaheim, 6) New York, 7) San Jose, 8) Los Angeles, 9) Philadelphia, 10) Montreal

2016-2025 Playoffs:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

1) Tampa Bay, 2) Vegas (didn't even exist for 2 of those years), 3) Dallas*, 4) Colorado, 5) Carolina*, 6) Florida*, 7) Boston, 8) Edmonton*, 9) Pittsburgh, 10) St. Louis

Obviously not every team fits neatly into buckets with that 10-year split division based on the years of their window

Aggregate:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

1) Pittsburgh, 2) Boston, 3) Tampa Bay, 4) New York, 5) Chicago, 6) San Jose, 7) Dallas*, 8) Washington, 9) Carolina*, 10) Anaheim

The * are for teams still in 2025 Playoffs. Obviously can play around with year parameters but I think a clear and obvious pattern showing a hyper-cyclical nature, some teams can last a lot longer with good management/players age well, some teams can never seem to get it together, etc. Not that this didn't happen before but is certainly strongest it's ever been.

PIT and Boston as teams that lasted longest, and outside of hail mary, probably most likely looking at very long rebuilds going forward (old teams, probably pretty bad teams, not strong prospect pools right now). Then you will probably have Tampa Bay in that bucket right after. Similar to how it was for Detroit about a decade ago.

 

[The Pale King]

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/blake-talked-contract-with-leafs-1.280125

Not sure if Toronto would have been able to top Colorado's offer for Blake. LA was still in the playoff hunt so they wanted NHL pieces back (Deadmarsh/Miller) on top of picks/prospects. This article also mentions that Toronto was hesitant to acquire Blake if he wasn't willing to sign an immediate extension.

Deadmarsh was an absolute warrior for the Kings before injuries got to him. But dealing Blake out of conference would have been smart for LA in retrospect, even if the return from a team like Toronto might not have been as solid. I feel like Antropov would have been involved somehow. Maybe Tucker?

A Toronto team with Blake as their no. 1 and Kaberle, McCabe, Yushkevich is a whole different animal, probably gets them to the SCF once.

For the Kings, trading Rob Blake to the Avs and then losing to him in the second round that same season in a very close series... what can I say? That one is still painful. Not to mention the next year again.

Is it worse than losing to the same team in the first round, four years in a row with Blake back at the helm? Not sure. But it's up there.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

The Blake trade was brilliant, because the Avs had trouble with the Wings in those days but Adam Deadmarsh was always a Wings killer. So we traded him to Los Angeles, and he beat the Wings for us.

Then Felix Potvin almost beat us.

 

[Nerowoy nora tolad]

Deadmarsh was an absolute warrior for the Kings before injuries got to him. But dealing Blake out of conference would have been smart for LA in retrospect, even if the return from a team like Toronto might not have been as solid. I feel like Antropov would have been involved somehow. Maybe Tucker?

A Toronto team with Blake as their no. 1 and Kaberle, McCabe, Yushkevich is a whole different animal, probably gets them to the SCF once.

For the Kings, trading Rob Blake to the Avs and then losing to him in the second round that same season in a very close series... what can I say? That one is still painful. Not to mention the next year again.

Is it worse than losing to the same team in the first round, four years in a row with Blake back at the helm? Not sure. But it's up there.

Everything Ive read on HOH about Blake is that he was good, but a bit too high event and suspect defensively. That Toronto blueline already had too much of that problem IIRC?

I dont think adding Blake would have made them worse, but somebody in the Lidstrom mould would have been far better. You just dont need another offensively minded D when you already have Kaberle and McCabe.

 

[Johnny Engine]

He definitely improves whatever ES pairing he's on, but also gets in the way of McCabe emergence as a power play threat. Kaberle is a completely different type of defenseman, enough so that he made a functional-enough top pair with McCabe at times, but if you're placing them all along a single-dimensional scale between "offensive" and "defensive" then yes, all three of those guys would be occupying the same end of that line.