Draft What Grade Would You Give Our 2020 Draft?

[Kakko Schmakko]

I have no problem with people doing that, but like anything else, I think there should be some accountability.

In some cases, some of these guys are flat out wrong on a lot of things and that gets proven with time. That should be part of the evaluation before we consider someone an expert on anything.

I don't have time to perform maintenance on my car, but if I take it to a mechanic who keeps putting pieces in the wrong slots, I don't consider him to be an expert --- regardless of how much time and effort he puts into his work.

yeah but scouting is not a science, especially when you consider scouts don't watch all the games, so it is possible that the player sucked in the games 1 scout watched and was great in the games the other scout watched.

 

[chosen]

A+ About time this organization took some nasty, Canadian boys instead of these soft euros who are non playoff types.

Certainly don't want anymore Panarins or Zibanejads.

 

[Edge]

yeah but scouting is not a science, especially when you consider scouts don't watch all the games, so it is possible that the player sucked in the games 1 scout watched and was great in the games the other scout watched.

Without a doubt, but there's a bandwidth for how far off you can be, and how many times.

The challenge that I have with some social media personalities is that there isn't that burden of proof out there, or that accountability as to whether or not they were in the ballpark.

While not perfect, forums do kind of provide a little bit of a peer review approach --- not unlike a college or university. And because of that, that makes it easier to distinguish between someone who is not always accurate (but at least competent), as oppossed to someone who just throws shit against the wall, hopes for a reaction, and then moves on.

I think we have to be careful. In some cases, some of these observers are no better than the people who've been chased from these boards after how little they understood was eventually exposed.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Without a doubt, but there's a bandwidth for how far off you can be, and how many times.

The challenge that I have with some social media personalities is that there isn't that burden of proof out there, or that accountability as to whether or not they were in the ballpark.

While not perfect, forums do kind of provide a little bit of a peer review approach --- not unlike a college or university. And because of that, that makes it easier to distinguish between someone who is not always accurate (but at least competent), as oppossed to someone who just throws shit against the wall, hopes for a reaction, and then moves on.

I think we have to be careful. In some cases, some of these observers are no better than the people who've been chased from these boards after how little they understood was eventually exposed.

can you give some examples which players they were really wrong about?

 

[Edge]

can you give some examples which players they were really wrong about?

Off the top of my head, Scouch's takes on Lafreneire and Sanderson were stretches in quite a few areas --- particularly the floating aspect with Lafreniere. I've also noticed his evaluations of defensemen often seem like he's not quite sure what is he's looking for if the player isn't generating a ton of offense.

 

[eco's bones]

Toronto had a lot of picks, but that doesn't mean they did amazing. Amirov was a reach in my opinion. He looks like Namestnikov clone. I would take Cuylle over Hirvonen.

I agree on Cuylle over Hirvonen. He really likes Hirvonen--I'm not really a fan. I also think Amirov will be better than Namestnikov but after that I'm not that impressed with what the Leafs did. If you look at what we did vs. the Leafs positionally. Lafreniere easily over Amirov. Schneider easily over Niemela at RD. I'd take Vierling over Hirvonen at center. Garand over Akhtyamov in goal. Berard and Cuylle are better than any of their forwards other than Amirov.

 

[eco's bones]

He hated the Schneider Cuylle and Rempe picks, doubt he gives anywhere near a good grade.

I'd take our draft over the Maple Leafs easily---even without Lafreniere. The best two Leaf picks IMO are Amirov and Niemela---after that IMO it's a real iffy group. I'm not a fan of Hirvonen though. I like Vierling better as a center. I know Will loves Berard though. Am

But by position:

Lafreniere--LW>>>>>Amirov
Schneider-RD>>>Niemela
Vierling-C>Hirvonen
Garand-G>>Akhtyamov

I'd easily take Cuylle and Berard over any of the forwards the Leafs took other than Amirov.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

I agree on Cuylle over Hirvonen. He really likes Hirvonen--I'm not really a fan. I also think Amirov will be better than Namestnikov but after that I'm not that impressed with what the Leafs did. If you look at what we did vs. the Leafs positionally. Lafreniere easily over Amirov. Schneider easily over Niemela at RD. I'd take Vierling over Hirvonen at center. Garand over Akhtyamov in goal. Berard and Cuylle are better than any of their forwards other than Amirov.

Namestnikov was also supposed to be better than Namestnikov

 

[Barnaby]

The thing about Schneider is he doesn’t have upside. This is the player he is. He’s one of the oldest players in the draft so he has many months on some players. He’s a defensive minded defenseman without much offense. He can skate okay with regards to speed, but his mobility is below average at best. He’s a defenseman from 15 years ago. Great teams have this kind of player, but it’s not a super high profile player. These days a player like this is picked in rounds 2-4 but ends up being good enough to be a bottom 4 defender.

I just wish he were a lefty. He’s not a long term project and may be ready some time next season. If not next season, certainly ‘21-‘22. We already have a logjam on the right side, so this just complicates things further. I think he’ll be a NHL player for a long time, but his style of play is a bit antiquated for today’s game.

I don’t get how he doesn’t have upside. By many accounts multiple teams had him ranked as a top 10 player. I’m not going to pretend I’m an avid follower of the Brandon Wheat Kings, but I’ve seen him compared to a McDonagh or Parayko. Those players are seldom traded and very rarely hit UFA and when they do they sign for a Kings ransom. There’s a very good chance ADA is moved at some point. Personally, I think this team needs some skilled defensive defensemen. In a perfect world, BPA is easily a center prospect but NYR obviously felt that wasn’t the case. RD are usually with their weight in gold. I have no doubt that the Rangers will eventually trade from a position of strength to fill a weakness. Schneider should be a long term fit in the top 4 and I think there’s a good chance he ends up wearing a letter. If that’s the case then this is a great pick.

 

[True Blue]

I don’t get how he doesn’t have upside. By many accounts multiple teams had him ranked as a top 10 player. I’m not going to pretend I’m an avid follower of the Brandon Wheat Kings, but I’ve seen him compared to a McDonagh or Parayko. Those players are seldom traded and very rarely hit UFA and when they do they sign for a Kings ransom. There’s a very good chance ADA is moved at some point. Personally, I think this team needs some skilled defensive defensemen. In a perfect world, BPA is easily a center prospect but NYR obviously felt that wasn’t the case. RD are usually with their weight in gold. I have no doubt that the Rangers will eventually trade from a position of strength to fill a weakness. Schneider should be a long term fit in the top 4 and I think there’s a good chance he ends up wearing a letter. If that’s the case then this is a great pick.

Well said. But I am shocked, SHOCKED to find out you are not an avid watcher of the Brandon Wheat Kings.

 

[eco's bones]

I think the problem is that we empower some of these people over and over again despite some really questionable calls and observations.

Often times, a lot of these observers would not be able to stand the scrutiny of these boards, let alone a broader pushback.

And that's fine, save for the fact that we keep driving traffic their way, which expands their reach, which in turn gives them a broader audience with which to share questionable observations.

Sometimes I think people get caught up in the skills thing so much that they lose track of other aspects of team building. I'm perfectly fine picking up character sorts and grinders the deeper we go into a draft. To me it's a waste to go after a 5'6--5'7 skill guy like a Oksentyuk or a Pashin deep into the draft--a guy like Berard might not be very big either but he's a gritty will do what it takes guy who would have been great late 3rd round and on.

The reason why a Gropp couldn't make it was because he couldn't or wouldn't adapt his game. There's a lot to that mental part of I'm going to do whatever it takes. That seems to be missing from some of Will's analyses to me.

Anyway it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up with 4 or 5 NHL'ers out of this group because I think Cuylle and/or Berard will adapt to circumstances and that Vierling could break out and that Garand might be that fighter of a goalie who just never gives up.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

I am thinking Schneider is like Trouba but with better IQ which is huge.

 

[Edge]

I don’t get how he doesn’t have upside. By many accounts multiple teams had him ranked as a top 10 player. I’m not going to pretend I’m an avid follower of the Brandon Wheat Kings, but I’ve seen him compared to a McDonagh or Parayko. Those players are seldom traded and very rarely hit UFA and when they do they sign for a Kings ransom. There’s a very good chance ADA is moved at some point. Personally, I think this team needs some skilled defensive defensemen. In a perfect world, BPA is easily a center prospect but NYR obviously felt that wasn’t the case. RD are usually with their weight in gold. I have no doubt that the Rangers will eventually trade from a position of strength to fill a weakness. Schneider should be a long term fit in the top 4 and I think there’s a good chance he ends up wearing a letter. If that’s the case then this is a great pick.

One of the risks for fans is getting into the mindset that upside = offense, especially when it comes to defenseman.

In Schneider's case, he's almost certainly not going to be a big-time point producer at the NHL level. Maybe in a world with Fox and ADA, or with someone like Lapierre sitting on the board, that's going to be a bit of a let-down for some fans.

But Schneider's a really good defensive prospect and plays a style of game that is helpful when trying to put together a winning team.

In terms of upside, no he doesn't look like a guy who is going to make 3 or 4 all-star teams. But he does look like a guy who could be right at home playing alongside his team's top players, while shutting down the other team's stars.

So I guess it depends on how we define upside.

Is he going to score 15 goals and 45 points? Not likely.

Could he eat up 20+ minutes a night, and even more time in a playoff situation? Yeah, he has that potential.

 

[Edge]

Sometimes I think people get caught up in the skills thing so much that they lose track of other aspects of team building. I'm perfectly fine picking up character sorts and grinders the deeper we go into a draft. To me it's a waste to go after a 5'6--5'7 skill guy like a Oksentyuk or a Pashin deep into the draft--a guy like Berard might not be very big either but he's a gritty will do what it takes guy who would have been great late 3rd round and on.

The reason why a Gropp couldn't make it was because he couldn't or wouldn't adapt his game. There's a lot to that mental part of I'm going to do whatever it takes. That seems to be missing from some of Will's analyses to me.

Anyway it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up with 4 or 5 NHL'ers out of this group because I think Cuylle and/or Berard will adapt to circumstances and that Vierling could break out and that Garand might be that fighter of a goalie who just never gives up.

It's funny, in the 90s and well into the 2000s so many focused on physical attributes --- size, grit, aggression, etc.

Then it swung the other way, as the game evolved, and a lot of people became solely focused on "skills" or how pretty someone makes something look.

The truth is that there's value in both, to a degree. But I think too many observers are a little too focused on the "show me" skills of prospects. I think that's why so many of them have a really hard time picking out defenseman in their reports.

If you look at the guys who do videos, it tends to be the forwards. Why? Because it's easy to take a clip and piece together a report about zone entries, and puck control, and skating, and offensive awareness.

But when you take a deeper look at a lot of these guys --- with some exceptions, you see far less content about reading plays, or getting into position to kill something before it has a chance to materialize, etc.

Guys like Schneider, or Robertson, and even Lundkvist in his draft year don't often get a ton of spotlight by online pundits because the camera isn't always on them and what they do can be very subtle if you're only watching the guy with the puck.

Sometimes that's also the difference between someone who see's the games, or has access to certain feeds or videos, compared to someone who is fast forwarding through a select handful of games and checking performances against a ranking system that someone else come up with.

 

[Barnaby]

One of the risks for fans is getting into the mindset that upside = offense, especially when it comes to defenseman.

In Schneider's case, he's almost certainly not going to be a big-time point producer at the NHL level. Maybe in a world with Fox and ADA, or with someone like Lapierre sitting on the board, that's going to be a bit of a let-down for some fans.

But Schneider's a really good defensive prospect and plays a style of game that is helpful when trying to put together a winning team.

In terms of upside, no he doesn't look like a guy who is going to make 3 or 4 all-star teams. But he does look like a guy who could be right at home playing alongside his team's top players, while shutting down the other team's stars.

So I guess it depends on how we define upside.

Is he going to score 15 goals and 45 points? Not likely.

Could he eat up 20+ minutes a night, and even more time in a playoff situation? Yeah, he has that potential.

Those players are valuable in their own right. A defenseman in the latter half of the first round doesn’t need to be Cale Makar or Erik Karlsson to be a quality choice. I’m much happier with a Schneider than flipping a coin on Gunler or taking an inferior player based on need. Who knows maybe having a Fox and Schneider allows someone to get dealt for a LD or maybe a potential Trouba trade in 4-5 years when his trade restrictions loosen. It’s never bad to have options!

 

[Edge]

Those players are valuable in their own right. A defenseman in the latter half of the first round doesn’t need to be Cale Makar or Erik Karlsson to be a quality choice. I’m much happier with a Schneider than flipping a coin on Gunler or taking an inferior player based on need. Who knows maybe having a Fox and Schneider allows someone to get dealt for a LD or maybe a potential Trouba trade in 4-5 years when his trade restrictions loosen. It’s never bad to have options!

One of the things that I think gives Schneider value is that he potentially is the type of defenseman you can pair with just about anyone. He's right in that sweet spot.

Want him to shut things down with Robertson and Lindgren? He can do that.

Want him to provide cover for someone like Jones or Miller? He can do that as well.

Need him to go up against a shifty forward like Hughes? He's mobile and smart enough to do that.

Need him to go up against a physical presence like Tkachuk? He's big and strong enough for that assignment too.

 

[kovazub94]

I read something recently about where a guy's birthday fell having an impact on forwards but not defensemen. I didn't share it because it was kind of poorly written (the data was fine) and used some metrics I wasn't familiar with. Anyway I can't find it now, so, whatever. LOL.

Gee, thanks a lot.

Seriously, do you remember the main logic behind his assertion?

 

[eco's bones]

It's funny, in the 90s and well into the 2000s so many focused on physical attributes --- size, grit, aggression, etc.

Then it swung the other way, as the game evolved, and a lot of people became solely focused on "skills" or how pretty someone makes something look.

The truth is that there's value in both, to a degree. But I think too many observers are a little too focused on the "show me" skills of prospects. I think that's why so many of them have a really hard time picking out defenseman in their reports.

If you look at the guys who do videos, it tends to be the forwards. Why? Because it's easy to take a clip and piece together a report about zone entries, and puck control, and skating, and offensive awareness.

But when you take a deeper look at a lot of these guys --- with some exceptions, you see far less content about reading plays, or getting into position to kill something before it has a chance to materialize, etc.

Guys like Schneider, or Robertson, and even Lundkvist in his draft year don't often get a ton of spotlight by online pundits because the camera isn't always on them and what they do can be very subtle if you're only watching the guy with the puck.

Sometimes that's also the difference between someone who see's the games, or has access to certain feeds or videos, compared to someone who is fast forwarding through a select handful of games and checking performances against a ranking system that someone else come up with.

I think the Rangers started out this draft just great. Lafreniere the best player who also has size and a nasty streak.....and I know we were all or mostly all looking for a center with the second pick but Schneider continues that theme of size, skill and physical play---he doesn't have to be a big star--if he's even Ian Cole--one of those large size physical D that has a habit of being a top 4 D for teams that seem to go deep into playoffs a lot that's a good deal and then Will Cuylle--more of the size, physical component with some skating and shooting skills. Berard is an edgy player too--he sees Brad Marchand as someone to copy.

We got the elite talent anyway--now we need to make over our team identity as the team other teams really don't want to play against and not just in terms of talent but being the kind of team that can win on skill or win the grind or grit games too because not all games are finesse affairs--sometimes you have to fight for every inch of ice. The best teams have elite talent but they also have a good mix of other elements.

The thing with guys like Schneider or Robertson though is I think they both already have a very good idea of what they do well and the player they're going to become which is kind of like a kid entering college who has already settled the business of what degree he/she's going for. They can still develop their skills but it's easier to plug guys in like that.

 

[kovazub94]

I've been watching Will from Scouching's reviews on each teams drafts. So far he's done 13 teams and this is how he ranks them:

1A
1B--Toronto
1C--Anaheim
1D--Detroit, Vegas, Dallas
1F
2A
2B--Nashville
2C--Colorado, Edmonton, Philadelphia
2D--Columbus, Chicago, Pittsburgh
2F
3A
3B
3C
3D
3F--St. Louis

Can't wait to see how he ranks Arizona...

 

[Barnaby]

One of the things that I think gives Schneider value is that he potentially is the type of defenseman you can pair with just about anyone. He's right in that sweet spot.

Want him to shut things down with Robertson and Lindgren? He can do that.

Want him to provide cover for someone like Jones or Miller? He can do that as well.

Need him to go up against a shifty forward like Hughes? He's mobile and smart enough to do that.

Need him to go up against a physical presence like Tkachuk? He's big and strong enough for that assignment too.

I’m still surprised Toronto passed him up. He seemed like a perfect fit for that organization.

 

[True Blue]

I’m still surprised Toronto passed him up. He seemed like a perfect fit for that organization.

As am I , to be honest. I thought that was a perfect marriage. I never thought that he was going to drop below them. Guess once he did, Gorton spotted his man and got aggressive in attaining him.

 

[JCProdigy]

But when you take a deeper look at a lot of these guys --- with some exceptions, you see far less content about reading plays, or getting into position to kill something before it has a chance to materialize, etc.

A lot of those same people that ascribe to those methods are the same people who will look at the Rangers and lament their GAA but they think defensive zone reads, keeping players to the outside, denying zone entries, having your stick correctly in the passing lanes, etc. are all "just try harder" skills.

As far as social media "scouts", many times they all get a pass because they don't have to have one solid pick that they stick their necks out for like teams do. There is no small group of finite players that they could claim ownership over that could easily be identified by the observer. In a normal draft, a team has 7 players that they could be judged on. It's a pretty easy judgement for people to make. How do we do so for the person on twitter, on youtube, on here?

 

[nyr2k2]

Gee, thanks a lot.

Seriously, do you remember the main logic behind his assertion?

It wasn't an assertion so much as analyzing a bunch of data. If memory serves it measured the players' impact in standing points above replacement, or something just like that, which I wasn't familiar with.

I will try to find it. Honestly I wasn't even sure I was interpreting it correctly at the time.

 

[Edge]

I think the Rangers started out this draft just great. Lafreniere the best player who also has size and a nasty streak.....and I know we were all or mostly all looking for a center with the second pick but Schneider continues that theme of size, skill and physical play---he doesn't have to be a big star--if he's even Ian Cole--one of those large size physical D that has a habit of being a top 4 D for teams that seem to go deep into playoffs a lot that's a good deal and then Will Cuylle--more of the size, physical component with some skating and shooting skills. Berard is an edgy player too--he sees Brad Marchand as someone to copy.

We got the elite talent anyway--now we need to make over our team identity as the team other teams really don't want to play against and not just in terms of talent but being the kind of team that can win on skill or win the grind or grit games too because not all games are finesse affairs--sometimes you have to fight for every inch of ice. The best teams have elite talent but they also have a good mix of other elements.

The thing with guys like Schneider or Robertson though is I think they both already have a very good idea of what they do well and the player they're going to become which is kind of like a kid entering college who has already settled the business of what degree he/she's going for. They can still develop their skills but it's easier to plug guys in like that.

Lapierre is probably going to be the one fans remember and potentially hold against the Rangers if he pans out.

Some of the other options --- be it Bourque, Greig, Zary, or even Khusnutdinov probably won't generate quite as strong of reactions if they pan out (and stick at center).

Lapierre is tough to pass on, but the same health concerns that dropped him into our range in the first place will be the same concerns that hover over him for a while.

 

[nyr2k2]

Gee, thanks a lot.

Seriously, do you remember the main logic behind his assertion?

It wasn't an assertion so much as analyzing a bunch of data. If memory serves it measured the players' impact in standing points above replacement, or something just like that, which I wasn't familiar with.

I will try to find it. Honestly I wasn't even sure I was interpreting it correctly at the time.

Age Bias at the NHL Draft

Remembering the measure was all I needed to find it.

Anyway, like I said it's not exactly well-written, and I think it's looking at things from a different angle but still presents relevant conclusions.

I have no idea who that person is, for what that's worth.