wintersej
Registered User
I hear you, but in this draft it’s pretty well thought that the latter half of the first is very below average. I don’t think they could package to 8, for sure.
Value of: What do you think the 16th and 17th pick of the 1st round worth if traded together?
- Thread starter samsagat
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I hear you, but in this draft it’s pretty well thought that the latter half of the first is very below average. I don’t think they could package to 8, for sure.
wintersej
Registered User
The Habs ACTUALLY have their own pick plus another 1st rounder where that pick ends up is still up in the air and can be impacted by some really improbable things...
1) Calgary stays where they are but wins the lottery...the Habs gets Florida's pick
2) Calgary gets the wildcard and makes the conference final - habs gets the best of Calgary or Florida's pick
I would like to think you jinxed it and Calgary drops to 11th...the Habs gets all excited and then BOOOMM...the Flames win the lottery and FLorida wins the cup netting the Habs the 32nd OA pick
Djp
Registered User
It matters who is there...boston as nd pittsburgh are not trading down because they know they need new high end youth.because they see vets lo eave/ retire or about to.
A team that had bern drafting high thr past fee years who are looking for more depth/ secondary players might trade down
If buffalo was picking 9 or 10 they might trade down to get the 2 1st and package them in trades
A team that had bern drafting high thr past fee years who are looking for more depth/ secondary players might trade down
If buffalo was picking 9 or 10 they might trade down to get the 2 1st and package them in trades
One that just popped into mind was the Kings trading #17 and #28 to Anaheim for #12 in 2008. LA was targeting Colten Teubert. Anaheim was rumored to be interested in Erik Karlsson and they thought they could trade down and still get him while adding another pick. Unfortunately for them, Ottawa traded up from #18 to #15 for Karlsson.
I'd expect Pittsburgh to stay put and take one of the centers. But I suppose it could be a fun scenario where the turn the pick into two, use one to draft somebody and then trade the other for immediate help. I did chuckle when I remembered Sault Ste. Marie center Brady Martin is projected in the 10-20 range, but not sure how connected Dubas is with SSM nowadays.
Although I just don't know how good of an NHL player they could get for a mid-first this year.
I'd expect Pittsburgh to stay put and take one of the centers. But I suppose it could be a fun scenario where the turn the pick into two, use one to draft somebody and then trade the other for immediate help. I did chuckle when I remembered Sault Ste. Marie center Brady Martin is projected in the 10-20 range, but not sure how connected Dubas is with SSM nowadays.
Although I just don't know how good of an NHL player they could get for a mid-first this year.
Would have to be a perfect storm for a trade like that to happen. Team at 8 with a thin pool and not in love with anyone available at 8, and team with multiple picks would have to want whoever is on the board at 8 or 9 very badly.
Ledge And Dairy
Registered User
Trading into the top 10 is almost impossible to do as the teams that draft in the top 10 are usually looking for a quality prospect over the quantity of lesser prospects. The only way you are moving up anything significant is if there is a team ahead of you that values restocking their prospect pool more than getting a top prospect in this draft. Considering the drop-off after ~10 in this years draft that isn't very likely.
IWantSakicAsMyGM
Registered User
If the best you can get in return is still a gamble, the smart move is to keep two firsts and roll the dice twice. Add a 2nd to one of them if you can move up a few spots and grab someone you like, but do not trade both 1sts for a single pick.
CanMerc
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Value-wise, it might get you a pick in the 8-10 range, if those teams were interested. No idea if they would be.
It was before my time, but I laughed when I read about the Devils picking #12 in 1988. Their staff was confident that one of Jeremy Roenick, Teemu Selanne, or Rod Brind'Amour would be there. And then that trio goes 8-9-10. Even with hindsight, there wasn't another NHL regular taken before New Jersey's next pick.
Cool story. Picks 5-6 busted. Best player turned out to be Recchi drafted 4th round.
CSB had Roenick at 12, Brindamour at 20 so their guess was fine.
In 88 Euros were not popular picks. Selanne was he only one drafted in first round.
My point is: you cant call a drop off that deep. Even in 2017 when it was a 1-2 race between Hischier and Patrick.
Same goes for draft being weak when their team has no pick but good when they have many picks.
I am old and i remember the Forsberg draft in 91. Was a huge reach. Most prospects had their page in THN but Forsberg was in the honourable mentions group
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Draft pick trades are rarely about "value"; but rather, a team believing they can get "their guy" at the later pick.
Ultimately, given the reasonably predictable nature of the top half of the first round, it's doubtful that a team at 6-10 will believe that their guy is still going to be available at 16... and it probably wouldn't make sense to give up both picks to move up 5 spots.
That being said, if Montreal does end up with 16 and 17 together, and perhaps there is a team that just doesn't like anyone projected in that top 10, they take a flier on the deal.
Ultimately, that's impossible to predict, as it comes down to how each team's scouts feel about the prospects available.
Ultimately, given the reasonably predictable nature of the top half of the first round, it's doubtful that a team at 6-10 will believe that their guy is still going to be available at 16... and it probably wouldn't make sense to give up both picks to move up 5 spots.
That being said, if Montreal does end up with 16 and 17 together, and perhaps there is a team that just doesn't like anyone projected in that top 10, they take a flier on the deal.
Ultimately, that's impossible to predict, as it comes down to how each team's scouts feel about the prospects available.
GeeoffBrown
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