What do you change for game 3?

[Lay Z Boy GM]

I go back to a couple lines that had some chemistry and results late in the season.

Skinner - mcd - Brown
Pod - RNH - RV

Give Drai Kane or Perry and Hyman, everyone else makes the 4th line.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'm not saying Bouch is playing awesome, I'm just saying replacing him with Brown doesn't improve the team.

People all blaming the D that are such a huge part of this team and that are tasked with the hardest mop up jobs in the league playing around Skinner. Trust me Oilers fans you'd know if our D was shit.

Trouble often enough is our forward group being weak ass this season. you got guys like Arvid and J Skinner turning pucks over. You get others like Janmark, Pods, brown etc that can spend a month not making a play. The D have constant out and when McDrai are not on ice, and sometimes when they are its pucks coming back. The D are a huge part of our offense, a huge part of our winning, and in this series are being hunted because the Kings know full well to survive they have get to pucks, they have to bring heat to offensive zone.

Our backchecking and forwards playing positionally has been a problem in this series. The D have a pretty untenable task. They can't let LA completely setup behind net because this is death with Skinner in net. So they have pursue that, then when they do nobody i covering up front. Forwards aren't doing the board work, getting pucks out.

The D just came off stints where we were so banged up we were playing 5. We're missing Ekholm and Stecher. The forwards are all here, but not playing a 200ft game. So we blame the D who are the ones trying to put out fires.

 

[Duke74]

I go back to a couple lines that had some chemistry and results late in the season.

Skinner - mcd - Brown
Pod - RNH - RV

Give Drai Kane or Perry and Hyman, everyone else makes the 4th line.

I like the idea of a Kane-Drai-Perry line. Has skill and can get under the skin of the opposition.

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

I like the idea of a Kane-Drai-Perry line. Has skill and can get under the skin of the opposition.

Yeah I like that too. Only thing is Hyman would end up 4th line. I also don’t hate that, he can play that style of game and if I’m not mistaken didn’t he get demoted for a game a month or two ago and he scored? Frame it as adding depth to the 4th line

 

[elmeroil]

If Skinner plays tomorrow I will watch 0 minutes of the game. If Pickard starts I will watch. Imagine having Mcdavid and Drai and gifting a series lead of 2-0 playing this clown who has been terrible most of the year.

Will they win with Pickard, maybe not, but at least they'll have a chance. I promise the D plays better with a better goalie because it's sooooo obvious that they're beyond nervous with Pizza 74 in net. I'm predicting if Pickard plays, Oilers have a chance of winning this series.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I don't think he is absolving Skinner of anything, he states he is not making the unexpected saves. He also isnt writing it with the intention of absolving Skinner but from a tactical level which illustrates where the breakdowns are coming and he has always written that. I am not sure who this guy is exactly, he must have coached somewhere as he has a deep understanding of the tactical level of the game.

The team is making decade of darkness level of mistakes that they simply weren’t making last year. Like how many breakaways did they give up in the playoffs last year? Maybe 2?

 

[Pip]

Yeah I like that too. Only thing is Hyman would end up 4th line. I also don’t hate that, he can play that style of game and if I’m not mistaken didn’t he get demoted for a game a month or two ago and he scored? Frame it as adding depth to the 4th line

In that kind of set up (which I don’t hate) I think you’d have Perry and Hyman swap off as I don’t generally think Perry succeeds playing a lot of minutes.

 

[bellagiobob]

I'll still be cheering the boys on, who the reality is that only about 10% of teams that go down 2-0 win the series, so the odds are not in our favor. And it's not like we are playing great and just ran into a hot goalie, we've pretty much stunk for most of the two games. Too many guys hurt or playing hurt, and an equal number have lost a serious step since last year and are just taking up space. Add in veterans like Bouch and Nurse playing poorly in our own zone, historically bad PK, and a goalie that can't make a save, there isn't much you can point to that gives one a lot of confidence. BUT, I learned my lesson a long time ago that you never count out a team with McDrai on it. They won't be quitting, and if enough guys can channel their inner 2024 playoff selves, and we win game 3, then we have life. Still have belief.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

IMO a little too much wrong to fix it all quickly, but #1 priority is close up the back door play on the PK and that should be fixable with 1 coaching session.

second thing I think Nuge is struggling to hold down the 2nd line and would have him head up the 3rd line where I think he can outclass the opposition.

Thirdly while our top D pair is doing bad in general, I don't think Nurse can handle anything above 2nd pair duties, I'd push him down so we can get some effective minutes out of him, probably Walman up, even though he's been shaky in his own right, I'm guessing that he will handle being in over his head a little better.

I would go back to our last most effective lines mirroring what Lay Z Boy GM was saying. (spreading the offensive wealth).

Little bit on the fence with respect to it, but I would lean to playing J. Skinner over Frederic.

 

[tiger_80]

The Oilers give the Kings skinnger.

 

[tardigrade81]

Pickard in

And we win

Simple

 

[russ99]

I like his tactical reviews but I always have an issue with these articles when they are written with the intention of absolving the goalie. Of course a goal is the result of a breakdown......basically any decent chance in the NHL is the result of a breakdown defensively.

Yes, the team D has been bad but the guys in the media trying to create a narrative that Skinner has been "hung out to dry" is just false.......case in point being 2 goals worse than any other team.

View attachment 1021875

Nobody absolves the goalie, and expected goals is not only flawed but not only a goalies stat.

It behooves the stat community to find a metric that defines coverage breakdowns leading to open looks since XG, HDSC and GA/60 have an obvious gap in quantifying that and defense and goaltending both are responsible for goals against.

Skinner may be especially bad at saving uncovered scoring chances, but any goalie is going to have a harder time making saves. Would also like to see math on how shooting and save percentage tilts to the shooter in uncovered chances, odd man breaks and open trailers, because these breakdowns leading to GA aren’t all on the the goalie. SV% on uncontested chances would also be a handy stat.

The greatest lie the stats community ever told is that defense doesn’t exist/matter. And all ahead full and Fuhr at the back hasn’t won a cup since the 80s.

 

[Zerotonine]

Bowmans 2 acquisitions Walman and Frederic have been a failure.
This is after he let Holloway and Broberg walk.

He also lost multiple high draft picks in the process.

I say play the young guys like Savoie and Dineen. This series is over. We are getting bent like a rented mule. Give them some exposure and experience playing in front a passionate Edmonton fanbase in the playoffs.

We desperately need a Dylan Holloway type player injected into this lineup but we have none.

When will people realize bowman had nothing to fking do with broberg and Holloway. Hate the man all you want but atleast get your facts straight

Not to mention Holloway is injured AGAIN so he wouldn't even be playing right now

 

[fuswald]

Return to forward lines that played much of the year with success. Get the confidence back.

Nuge McDavid Hyman
Podz Draisaitl Arvidson
Skinner/Janmark Henrique Brown

Then for then 4th line add in Kane or Skinner
Kane/Skinner Ryan Perry

Defense we are screwed without Ekholm.

Nurse Kulak
Bouchard dunno
Emberson Walman

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

When will people realize bowman had nothing to fking do with broberg and Holloway. Hate the man all you want but atleast get your facts straight

Not to mention Holloway is injured AGAIN so he wouldn't even be playing right now

bowman was hired July 24th. The offer sheets were signed on August 13th.

 

[McFlash97]

When will people realize bowman had nothing to fking do with broberg and Holloway. Hate the man all you want but atleast get your facts straight

Not to mention Holloway is injured AGAIN so he wouldn't even be playing right now

Man get the heck outta here with this wrong take. He Chose not to match Holloway. It had nothing to do with the cap. This clown spent a week making out with his Narcissistic boss than fn signed Emberson and Podkolzin. Absolute fn clown and inexusable. Your take is wild.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Kane threw some really big hits as well. Frederic was trying but he clearly doesn't look healthy. Drai, Hyman, Walman and Frederic all look like they aren't close to 100% right now.

McDavid:”we are healthier than you think we are”
Clearly.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I'd sit Kane too, he was very raw, don't push him out there and have him overdo it after a year out. He wasn't even close to scoring yesterday, so I don't know what you'd give up, and the icetime to a healthy capable player would be advantage enough.

I don't think you can. Kane played ball and now we have to as well.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

McDavid:”we are healthier than you think we are”
Clearly.

McDavid was right, they aren’t walking wounded. They’re walking dead.

 

[MessierII]

Pickard in

And we win

Simple

I actually don’t think it’s that simple at all. We need to find an answer on both special teams to turn the tide here. We gave given up TWENTY power play shots against in 2 games. We have no answer for their new 5 forward look. Also our PP has created what? Maybe one decent chance by Hyman the other night? If we don’t turn that around it’s a sweep even with Pickard.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I actually don’t think it’s that simple at all. We need to find an answer on both special teams to turn the tide here. We gave given up TWENTY power play shots against in 2 games. We have no answer for their new 5 forward look. Also our PP has created what? Maybe one decent chance by Hyman the other night? If we don’t turn that around it’s a sweep even with Pickard.

No but a single save can completely change the game. Like say Pickard even just saved that last goal in Game 1. They could have taken it to over time or won. Which could have massively changed the energy level around the team for game 2. Even say it didn’t. Say he made a big save on the 4th goal. That keeps the game 3-2 and the team then has some belief they can actually come back.

I will not excuse our defensive play, it hasn’t been good enough and our special teams have been awful. But even with all of that. A couple good saves could have this series feeling incredibly incredibly different. Now I’m not sold on Pickard being that guy. But that’s a different story

 

[MessierII]

No but a single save can completely change the game. Like say Pickard even just saved that last goal in Game 1. They could have taken it to over time or won. Which could have massively changed the energy level around the team for game 2. Even say it didn’t. Say he made a big save on the 4th goal. That keeps the game 3-2 and the team then has some belief they can actually come back.

I will not excuse our defensive play, it hasn’t been good enough and our special teams have been awful. But even with all of that. A couple good saves could have this series feeling incredibly incredibly different. Now I’m not sold on Pickard being that guy. But that’s a different story

Yeah I don’t disagree especially game 1 but that was a borderline hockey miracle to even be in that game. We absolutely without question deserve to be down 2 games. We have been the better team in one period so far.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Yeah I don’t disagree especially game 1 but that was a borderline hockey miracle to even be in that game. We absolutely without question deserve to be down 2 games. We have been the better team in one period so far.

Deserve to be absolutely. Could have completed a comeback that could have made Game 2 a very different game? Absolutely. Momentum, confidence everything can change a team. Being able to complete that comeback cause Skinner doesn’t let in a muffin? Gives the team a ton of confidence going into game 2 and has LA doubting themselves.
The team as a whole has played bad for sure. I’m just pointing out to how even a single save can change everything.

 

[popo]

If you compare Even Strength ice time between the two teams forward groups:

Kings
-dress 11 forwards, roll 3 lines exclusively. Very different from a Vegas depth approach.
-mix up their talent to have three capable lines
-as a result, all their forwards get pretty respectable 5v5 ice time. Danualt the most (checking assignment) but Byfield and Kopitar are all seeing nearly as much EV ice time as McDavid

Oilers
-dress 12 forwards, roll 4 lines, with rotational changes to get extra shifts for McDavid, Draisaitl
-concentrate McDavid and Draisatil on one line, 3 remaining lines not generating anything
-as a result, our top guys -McDavid, Draisaitl and to a lesser extent Hyman - get slighly more or comparable EV minutes to most of LA's top 9. The remaining players on lines 2-4 are seeing much less ice time.

I would honestly match LA. Split up McDrai, and build up three good lines:
Skinner-McDavid-Hyman <- Danualt will shadow
Kane-Draisaitl-Perry <- Koptiar matchup
Podkolzin-Hopkins-Arvidsson <-assign to shut down Byfield
*Janmark-Henrique-Brown
*use the 4th line exlclusively to PK, or can swap Henrique up in the regular forwards.

 

[MessierII]

Deserve to be absolutely. Could have completed a comeback that could have made Game 2 a very different game? Absolutely. Momentum, confidence everything can change a team. Being able to complete that comeback cause Skinner doesn’t let in a muffin? Gives the team a ton of confidence going into game 2 and has LA doubting themselves.
The team as a whole has played bad for sure. I’m just pointing out to how even a single save can change everything.

The thing is even if skinner doesn’t let that goal in there is no guarantee we win that game. In fact based on what I’ve seen so far I’d bet against it. We look like the worst team in the playoffs right. Montreal and the devils with no Hughes look more competitive than we do.