Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller? | Part 2

[Diversification]

Great post...Bennings wish list had always been a good puck moving D man, who could play on the PP.......QH answered all of his prayers.

Credit to Benning for having the foresight, to make the Miller trade, and the other UFA signings in 2019..His timing was spot on, even though most fans balked at the price of a 1st (myself included) ...These moves accelerated the squad to a new level.

Good GM'ing right there...imo...If we had gone the safe route last year (made the pick, no trades or signings)...the conversation would be distinctly different from what it is right now.

I get what you're saying, but it's tough for me to give Benning too much credit here. Alluding to my previous post, you don't often draw an inside straight flush on the river. And you certainly don't want to be put in a position to depend upon that outcome.

The simplest explanation for the Miller trade was that it was borne of desperation. That's not to say it wasn't exactly the right move to make and made with impeccable timing, it was. But it was the result of some real failures and mistakes made by Benning in prior years.

That said, this season - not just the playoffs, but the whole season - has made me reconsider some of his moves in a new light. His record, in retrospect, is more mixed than I gave him credit for. Some home runs were already evident before then: drafting Boeser, EP, Gaudette, Madden, etc. But some of his signings are more of a bit of column A and a bit of column B, rather than outright disasters. Motte, Sutter, Pearson (via Gudbranson) fit in this category.

The other thing I've had to reconsider are some of my expectations as to how to construct a good team. I felt that in some ways we were heading in the right direction, but not nearly fast enough that we would be able to take advantage of our stars on ELCs. I also thought that the process would be more incremental, rather than in leaps as has occurred this year. It's changed how I view the trajectory of a young core and how best to build around them. In that respect, the Miller acquisition was really perfect for what we needed at the time.

 

[M2Beezy]

Man I love that I was wrong about this trade

 

[GetFocht]

Man I love that I was wrong about this trade

At least you have enough humility to admit it.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I get what you're saying, but it's tough for me to give Benning too much credit here. Alluding to my previous post, you don't often draw an inside straight flush on the river. And you certainly don't want to be put in a position to depend upon that outcome.

The simplest explanation for the Miller trade was that it was borne of desperation. That's not to say it wasn't exactly the right move to make and made with impeccable timing, it was. But it was the result of some real failures and mistakes made by Benning in prior years.

That said, this season - not just the playoffs, but the whole season - has made me reconsider some of his moves in a new light. His record, in retrospect, is more mixed than I gave him credit for. Some home runs were already evident before then: drafting Boeser, EP, Gaudette, Madden, etc. But some of his signings are more of a bit of column A and a bit of column B, rather than outright disasters. Motte, Sutter, Pearson (via Gudbranson) fit in this category.

The other thing I've had to reconsider are some of my expectations as to how to construct a good team. I felt that in some ways we were heading in the right direction, but not nearly fast enough that we would be able to take advantage of our stars on ELCs. I also thought that the process would be more incremental, rather than in leaps as has occurred this year. It's changed how I view the trajectory of a young core and how best to build around them. In that respect, the Miller acquisition was really perfect for what we needed at the time.

Nobody is denying that there were mistakes in the first 3 years..Most notably, 'compete on the fly', and the resistance to rebuild after the loss to the Flames (I put a lot of that on Linden, but thats another story).

The Canucks sat in a holding pattern for two seasons 2017-18,2018-19 (no high end UFA signings, or buyers at the TDL)..Benning finally had his core pieces in place, summer 2019, and decided that was the time to strike...Why is that desperate?..The results speak otherwise.

if you were the Canucks GM in 2019, what alternate route would you have taken?

 

[CantStoptheBrock]

if you were the Canucks GM in 2019, what alternate route would you have taken?

Petey: "Do I really have to play with Goldobin this coming year? I'm getting completely keyed on, and it would really help if I had a player who could take some of the heat off--"

HF Van Management Team: "Hold it right there Petey. A "fact" is coming into our Dot Matrix Fact Generator: it says here we were bad 4 years ago, and thus we can't be good next year."

Petey: "It would sure be good to gain some playoff experience though--"

HF Van Management Team: "Once we've accumulated enough lottery picks, then we will talk about the playoffs! We need at least 3 more to be a contender--we're gonna skip right past the playoff experience thing and become instant contenders!--so we'll talk again in 3 years. See ya then! Oh yeah, we also traded Brock for Matt Dumba."

 

[GetFocht]

Petey: "Do I really have to play with Goldobin this coming year? I'm getting completely keyed on, and it would really help if I had a player who could take some of the heat off--"

HF Van Management Team: "Hold it right there Petey. A "fact" is coming into our Dot Matrix Fact Generator: it says here we were bad 4 years ago, and thus we can't be good next year."

Petey: "It would sure be good to gain some playoff experience though--"

HF Van Management Team: "Once we've accumulated enough lottery picks, then we will talk about the playoffs! We need at least 3 more to be a contender--we're gonna skip right past the playoff experience thing and become instant contenders!--so we'll talk again in 3 years. See ya then! Oh yeah, we also traded Brock for Matt Dumba."

Thanks for making me spit out of my coffee.

We sure do love the Oilers model of rebuilding. Let's keep on losing, demoralizing our current good players that are young, build bad habits in efforts accumulate lottery picks and magically become an instant contender overnight.

You know for a group that takes pride on being right of Canucks not being able to win a cup (duh, you have a 97% chance of being right considering only one team wins out of 31), they sure think we have a better chance of winning the lottery draft when there is a higher chance of making it to the playoffs.

 

[Wildcarder]

This is the JT Miller trade debate simplified:

Canucks were saving up a lot of money in an investment account. The longer they left the money in, the more interest they would have earned. Benning decided to cash out some of the money early to buy a lottery ticket. The lottery ticket hit and it hit big. We're all happy that our gamble paid off, but it's also fine for us to be critical of the decision to make that gamble in the first place.

I think most of us agree the Miller trade turned out to be a major jackpot and there's also no guarantee that we would have hit on our first round pick this year had we kept it. However, when you look at how you build a Cup winning team in the cap era it's more than just assembling the best collection of talent. It's equally important to time your window right and manage your cap properly (i.e. see Toronto for a perfect example).

 

[CantStoptheBrock]

This is the JT Miller trade debate simplified:

Canucks were saving up a lot of money in an investment account. The longer they left the money in, the more interest they would have earned. Benning decided to cash out some of the money early to buy a lottery ticket. The lottery ticket hit and it hit big. We're all happy that our gamble paid off, but it's also fine for us to be critical of the decision to make that gamble in the first place.

I think most of us agree the Miller trade turned out to be a major jackpot and there's also no guarantee that we would have hit on our first round pick this year had we kept it. However, when you look at how you build a Cup winning team in the cap era it's more than just assembling the best collection of talent. It's equally important to time your window right and manage your cap properly (i.e. see Toronto for a perfect example).

The only problem is that NHL franchises employ pro-scouting teams whose salaries and tools probably add up to millions of dollars so that trades are precisely not "lottery tickets" but well-researched acquisitions, ideally. Canucks' pro-scouting has improved immensely since Linden's departure for some reason.

Of course there are a lot of variables that go into player success on a new team, but equating a player acquisition with buying a lottery ticket is slightly absurd. What looks like luck to the outside can be a lot of hard work and scouting acumen from the inside.

It's also amusing how when Benning does a good thing, it's equated to good luck, but when he does a bad thing, attributing it to bad luck (such as Brandon Sutter going from an incredibly durable player to an injury-laden nightmare) is labelled an excuse.

Here's the J.T. Miller trade simplified: some posts were wrong, and some posts were right. The rest is just goal-post moving.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

HF Van Management Team: "Once we've accumulated enough lottery picks, then we will talk about the playoffs! We need at least 3 more to be a contender--we're gonna skip right past the playoff experience thing and become instant contenders!--so we'll talk again in 3 years. See ya then! Oh yeah, we also traded Brock for Matt Dumba."

You're really good at making shit up. Maybe consider writing short stories?

 

[Diversification]

Nobody is denying that there were mistakes in the first 3 years..Most notably, 'compete on the fly', and the resistance to rebuild after the loss to the Flames (I put a lot of that on Linden, but thats another story).

The Canucks sat in a holding pattern for two seasons 2017-18,2018-19 (no high end UFA signings, or buyers at the TDL)..Benning finally had his core pieces in place, summer 2019, and decided that was the time to strike...Why is that desperate?..The results speak otherwise.

if you were the Canucks GM in 2019, what alternate route would you have taken?

I would not have adopted the 'age-gap' strategy. It was a hare brained idea from the start because players that teams are willing to part with in their early 20's are exactly the ones that you should steer clear of. There were also some huge misfires in pro scouting including Ericksson and Gudbranson. Hated the Juolevi pick from the beginning.

Instead of Ericksson and Gudbranson-like acquisitions, I would have instead focused on signing older UFAs to short term contracts with the intent of having them mentor the younger players and also potentially unloading them for picks at TDL (ie. more Vaneks). Picks amassed here would be either used as is or packaged to move up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in order to get the players the scouting staff really wanted. I would not, however, have been in favor of taking on bad contracts for picks because it could jeopardize team chemistry.

It would have lead to a similar W-L record but you'd have some more quality cost-controlled players in your system.

But I would have been wrong in that I would have not signed someone like Sutter to soak up the 3rd line center minutes. I would have targeted someone cheaper since we were going to suck anyways. This would still have been a deficiency and credit to Benning for prioritizing it earlier on. I also would not have gone after Miller the way he did.

But, as I said before, it was a desperation move because Benning's standing was in jeopardy at the time, even with EP's Calder. The Miller trade set a two-season timeline for an up-or-down decision on his future. Likely shorter if things looked bleak in the early going of the 2nd season.

Always saw Benning as a stop-gap GM while the team struggled to re-build. Good on him to win a huge gamble and save his job in the process.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I would not have adopted the 'age-gap' strategy. It was a hare brained idea from the start because players that teams are willing to part with in their early 20's are exactly the ones that you should steer clear of. There were also some huge misfires in pro scouting including Ericksson and Gudbranson. Hated the Juolevi pick from the beginning.

Instead of Ericksson and Gudbranson-like acquisitions, I would have instead focused on signing older UFAs to short term contracts with the intent of having them mentor the younger players and also potentially unloading them for picks at TDL (ie. more Vaneks). Picks amassed here would be either used as is or packaged to move up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in order to get the players the scouting staff really wanted. I would not, however, have been in favor of taking on bad contracts for picks because it could jeopardize team chemistry.

It would have lead to a similar W-L record but you'd have some more quality cost-controlled players in your system.

But I would have been wrong in that I would have not signed someone like Sutter to soak up the 3rd line center minutes. I would have targeted someone cheaper since we were going to suck anyways. This would still have been a deficiency and credit to Benning for prioritizing it earlier on. I also would not have gone after Miller the way he did.

But, as I said before, it was a desperation move because Benning's standing was in jeopardy at the time, even with EP's Calder. The Miller trade set a two-season timeline for an up-or-down decision on his future. Likely shorter if things looked bleak in the early going of the 2nd season.

Always saw Benning as a stop-gap GM while the team struggled to re-build. Good on him to win a huge gamble and save his job in the process.

I was actually referring to what you would have done with the roster in 2019, ...not hindsight GM'ing in the last 5 years ( most of what you wrote would have never happened anyway ,under the 'compete on the fly' mandate)..

Newly re-signed Benning was in complete alignment with ownership with all the moves in summer 2019....If his job was in jeopardy they certainly wouldnt have let him make the trades and signings last year...

"Two years ago Benning survived the firing of team president Trevor Linden, largely because his assessment of the Canucks was more aligned with the Aquilinis than Linden’s. Loosely stated, Benning felt the Canucks were close to winning. Linden thought they were still four years away.
Benning might have been right. It’s helped he was able to trade for Miller and Toffoli and sign Myers and others and those moves were made with ownership’s blessings."..Ed Willes, The Province
.

 

[JT Milker]

This is the JT Miller trade debate simplified:

Canucks were saving up a lot of money in an investment account. The longer they left the money in, the more interest they would have earned. Benning decided to cash out some of the money early to buy a lottery ticket. The lottery ticket hit and it hit big. We're all happy that our gamble paid off, but it's also fine for us to be critical of the decision to make that gamble in the first place.

I think most of us agree the Miller trade turned out to be a major jackpot and there's also no guarantee that we would have hit on our first round pick this year had we kept it. However, when you look at how you build a Cup winning team in the cap era it's more than just assembling the best collection of talent. It's equally important to time your window right and manage your cap properly (i.e. see Toronto for a perfect example).

You’re missing a key part of the analogy: we had exactly enough in the account to pay rent before buying the lottery ticket.

 

[Diversification]

I was actually referring to what you would have done with the roster in 2019, ...not hindsight GM'ing in the last 5 years ( most of what you wrote would have never happened anyway ,under the 'compete on the fly' mandate)..

Newly re-signed Benning was in complete alignment with ownership with all the moves in summer 2019....If his job was in jeopardy they certainly wouldnt have let him make the trades and signings last year...

"Two years ago Benning survived the firing of team president Trevor Linden, largely because his assessment of the Canucks was more aligned with the Aquilinis than Linden’s. Loosely stated, Benning felt the Canucks were close to winning. Linden thought they were still four years away.
Benning might have been right. It’s helped he was able to trade for Miller and Toffoli and sign Myers and others and those moves were made with ownership’s blessings."..Ed Willes, The Province
.

It appears the only disagreement we have is who bears responsibility for ownership's misguided efforts to compete now. I lay that at Benning's feet in that as GM, he should have told Aqua to back off. Instead, he acquiesced and here we are with the cap situation we're in, which will impact our capacity to sustain success going forwards. And if the argument is that he had to play ball in order to execute his vision, he should have done it without ravaging our future with 6 year signings of washed up forwards like Louie Ericksson. Could have landed the same player for less term and more money and it would have been way better. That signing, is squarely Benning's fault.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

I would not have adopted the 'age-gap' strategy. It was a hare brained idea from the start because players that teams are willing to part with in their early 20's are exactly the ones that you should steer clear of. There were also some huge misfires in pro scouting including Ericksson and Gudbranson. Hated the Juolevi pick from the beginning.

Instead of Ericksson and Gudbranson-like acquisitions, I would have instead focused on signing older UFAs to short term contracts with the intent of having them mentor the younger players and also potentially unloading them for picks at TDL (ie. more Vaneks). Picks amassed here would be either used as is or packaged to move up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in order to get the players the scouting staff really wanted. I would not, however, have been in favor of taking on bad contracts for picks because it could jeopardize team chemistry.

It would have lead to a similar W-L record but you'd have some more quality cost-controlled players in your system.

But I would have been wrong in that I would have not signed someone like Sutter to soak up the 3rd line center minutes. I would have targeted someone cheaper since we were going to suck anyways. This would still have been a deficiency and credit to Benning for prioritizing it earlier on. I also would not have gone after Miller the way he did.

But, as I said before, it was a desperation move because Benning's standing was in jeopardy at the time, even with EP's Calder. The Miller trade set a two-season timeline for an up-or-down decision on his future. Likely shorter if things looked bleak in the early going of the 2nd season.

Always saw Benning as a stop-gap GM while the team struggled to re-build. Good on him to win a huge gamble and save his job in the process.

I said it at the time when the trade happened
I can respect JB for risking his job on the line cause I don’t want to miss the playoffs for 7 straight seasons

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

It appears the only disagreement we have is who bears responsibility for ownership's misguided efforts to compete now. I lay that at Benning's feet in that as GM, he should have told Aqua to back off. Instead, he acquiesced and here we are with the cap situation we're in, which will impact our capacity to sustain success going forwards. And if the argument is that he had to play ball in order to execute his vision, he should have done it without ravaging our future with 6 year signings of washed up forwards like Louie Ericksson. Could have landed the same player for less term and more money and it would have been way better. That signing, is squarely Benning's fault.

The 'compete on the fly' mandate was signalled in April, 2014.(.before Benning even got here)..Lindens mandate was to compete as long as the Sedins were here...There's no evidence of ownership interference at this time.

I'm not so sure Louie Eriksson was all Benning..Its a well known fact that Linden was also playing GM, and was in on all the big trades and signings..Almost seems like Linden signed this player, judging by all the knowledge he has about the player...
Loui Eriksson ready for life with Canucks after 'crazy' summer - Sportsnet.ca

Benning is still here..Linden isnt..What does that tell you?...The whole 'its entirely Bennings fault' is tired..

 

[RandV]

High chance of lotto pick according to who? Before Petey won rookie of the year Benning haters predicted that the Canucks were at least 2-3 years away from playoff contention. After Petey proved himself to be a franchise #1 C did the timeline remain the same? The Canucks were clearly on the rise and had 2 years to make the playoffs for that pick not to be a lotto pick and you know Benning will make moves to improve the team in the near future.

I should clarify that by lotto pick I mean by the current standard, where every team misses the playoffs is now a 'lottery' team and can pick 1st overall. Going into the season, the Canucks were by no means in the class of near guaranteed playoff teams like Colorado or Vegas, but rather down in the dogfight for a wildcard spot with a handful of other teams. And that's how it finished, with the season being SNAFU'd with covid seeming to save the team from an ongoing collapse clinging onto the final wildcard position.

 

[M2Beezy]

At least you have enough humility to admit it.

Yes, at least

 

[F A N]

I should clarify that by lotto pick I mean by the current standard, where every team misses the playoffs is now a 'lottery' team and can pick 1st overall. Going into the season, the Canucks were by no means in the class of near guaranteed playoff teams like Colorado or Vegas, but rather down in the dogfight for a wildcard spot with a handful of other teams. And that's how it finished, with the season being SNAFU'd with covid seeming to save the team from an ongoing collapse clinging onto the final wildcard position.

Yes but the pick was protected. The Canucks had two years to make the playoffs if the concern is that pick would be a "lotto pick."

The Canucks drafted in the top 10 4 straight years. At some point, the guys they drafted in the top 10 such as Petey and Hughes along with Horvat, Boeser, and with the addition of Miller would help the team get into the playoffs. Besides Buffalo, which is the last team has drafted in the top 10 6 straight years?

It comes down to evaluation of the roster. Benning haters, such as yourself, like to point out that the Canucks were on their way to missing the playoffs if not for COVID. But a lot of that was Markstrom going down with injury. He has played 60 games the previous two seasons, it's not unreasonable to expect him to play 55-60 games. So I think a GM looking at the roster with Petey, Hughes, Horvat, Beoser, and Markstrom can reasonably conclude that the team would make the playoffs over the next two seasons and Miller helps with that.

Losing sucks and it isn't good for player development. Petey and Horvat deserves to play with competent wingers. Horvat has missed the playoffs the past 4 seasons and look at him now. You want him to lose another two years to increase his chances of competing for a Cup in the future?

 

[Bleach Clean]

I should clarify that by lotto pick I mean by the current standard, where every team misses the playoffs is now a 'lottery' team and can pick 1st overall. Going into the season, the Canucks were by no means in the class of near guaranteed playoff teams like Colorado or Vegas, but rather down in the dogfight for a wildcard spot with a handful of other teams. And that's how it finished, with the season being SNAFU'd with covid seeming to save the team from an ongoing collapse clinging onto the final wildcard position.

It’s funny, no one was predicting a playoff lock heading into the season. A Bubble Team was the best anyone would venture. Somehow though, a GM could “reasonably conclude” that the team would make the playoffs within the next 2 years? Gimme a break.

You can have the same poster agree that development isn’t linear, and admit that they were a bad team for 4 years, and then defend Benning trading a future 1st rounder. It’s crazy time. Nobody was saying they would make the playoffs. It was possible, not probable. Yet, Benning is justified in his thinking? Right.

Logic has no place in a discussion like that. If no one could reasonably assert that the team would make the playoffs this year during the offseason, how then can you apply such reason to what Benning must have thought? Especially considering his hit ratio the previous 4 years?

 

[deckercky]

It’s funny, no one was predicting a playoff lock heading into the season. A Bubble Team was the best anyone would venture. Somehow though, a GM could “reasonably conclude” that the team would make the playoffs within the next 2 years? Gimme a break.

Many people thought the Canucks were quite likely to make the playoffs one of the next two seasons. Certainly more likely than giving up a 2021 top 10 pick.

I think Benning likely could have squeezed down the pick (I think the 'fair' discounted value would have been 2020 1st if the Canucks make the playoffs, 2020 2nd if the Canucks miss the playoffs), but it was a good player on a good contract that would have been a good complement to the roster even if he wasn't the homerun that he turned out to be, who would not have been available except for Tampa's cap crunch. Has a player with Miller's pedigree/contract/age been traded for less?

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I should clarify that by lotto pick I mean by the current standard, where every team misses the playoffs is now a 'lottery' team and can pick 1st overall. Going into the season, the Canucks were by no means in the class of near guaranteed playoff teams like Colorado or Vegas, but rather down in the dogfight for a wildcard spot with a handful of other teams. And that's how it finished, with the season being SNAFU'd with covid seeming to save the team from an ongoing collapse clinging onto the final wildcard position.

You had them far lower than that..

"This is quick rough draft on how I see the West shaking up, should be one or two different teams in the playoffs though for this particular year it's hard to see it, and Vancouver has a good ways to climb.

Nashville
Colorado
Calgary
Vegas
-----
St. Louis
San Jose
Winnipeg
Dallas
---
Minnesota
Chicago
Arizona
-
Vancouver
Edmonton
---
Anaheim
LA.....".......RandV, July 2019​

 

[Bleach Clean]

Many people thought the Canucks were quite likely to make the playoffs one of the next two seasons. Certainly more likely than giving up a 2021 top 10 pick.

I think Benning likely could have squeezed down the pick (I think the 'fair' discounted value would have been 2020 1st if the Canucks make the playoffs, 2020 2nd if the Canucks miss the playoffs), but it was a good player on a good contract that would have been a good complement to the roster even if he wasn't the homerun that he turned out to be, who would not have been available except for Tampa's cap crunch. Has a player with Miller's pedigree/contract/age been traded for less?

Who are these many people?

Has a good 2nd line player been traded for a potential lottery pick? Is that your question? Or, is it now: Has a good 2nd line player been traded for a 20+ 1st rounder?

 

[deckercky]

His past three seasons were 56, 58 and 47 (pacing for 51). That last season was playing 3rd line minutes with PP2 time.

Those numbers are low end first liner numbers, and were expected to increase to the 55-60 if he got more offensive minutes (obviously nobody dreamed that he would blossom like he did).

His contract was quite good and had term, but Tampa had to move him because they're stacked.

 

[deckercky]

Who are these many people?

I was one of them. Canucks were a bubble team this year - most expected San Jose and Las Vegas to be safe playoff teams, with essentially the rest of the Pacific competing for 3rd and wildcard slots.

 

[rypper]

Benning is still here..Linden isnt..What does that tell you?...The whole 'its entirely Bennings fault' is tired..

You're so close to getting it. So close.

It's never been entirely Benning's fault. They're both equally at fault. They both shouldn't be here anymore.