Speculation: What changes should be made for this team to be successful?

[Zoidberg Jesus]

And.. hate to say this, if I were objective (which I'm mostly not on this, lol), I'd be thinking about when might be the right time to trade Ovi, if the ES struggles continue. There are a bunch of things that can and should be tried before seriously exploring a trade, but right now to have negative effectiveness at ES for 9.5M is horrendous. And as time goes by, other obvious factors come into play..

What are people seeing in Ovie this year that's so different from last year? His Corsi numbers, both for and against, are virtually the same as last year, a little better in fact. He's even scoring at a higher pace.

The problem has more to do with luck than anything else. Backstrom and Johansson have a combined 1 goal on 107 shots with Ovie on the ice, which is ridiculous. His teammates as a whole are shooting about 3.7% with him on the ice (would be 3% flat were it not for Wellman's 2 goals on 5 shots with Ovie), while the previous low for a season was 8.3%, and the average going back to '07 is 9.4%. If they were shooting that average, Ovie would've been on the ice for 15 more goals and probably would have 10 more assists. That'd have him at -12 and on pace for 57-43-100 over a full season.

laich, and green out. brouwer out if we can get a defensemen back.

Ovechkin-Grabovski-_______
_______-Backstrom-Kuznetsov
Chimera-Johansson-Ward
Fehr-Latta-Wilson

_______-Carlson
Alzner-_______
Schmidt-Orlov

Holtby
_______

lot of big holes to fill with few guys to fill them. maybe we can fill 1 via trade, 1 via free agency than we have to hope that one of our prospects really pans out.

My personal preference is Brouwer for Petry and Johansson for Gunnarsson. Both of those guys are in their primes and have played on their teams' shutdown pairings for a few seasons. They've got size, but like Alzner and Carlson they don't rely on it. Trade Green to fill one of the holes in the top 6, maybe Orlov or Schmidt too if necessary. With four defensemen capable of playing significant, tough minutes, the Caps can do whatever they want with the 3rd pairing.

Ted's imbecility really can't be overstated. The best argument against firing McPhee has always been that Ted will be responsible for picking his successor. Odds are the guy is going to make such an outstandingly ****ing terrible decision that it'll just get worse.

To be fair, was the McPhee hiring so far from what most of us want Ted to do to replace him? George was an upcoming assistant GM under a respected GM in Pat Quinn, on a team that had very recently made it to the SCF. His resume isn't far from the guys we want, like Benning or Fenton, just less tenured.

 

[Langway]

To be fair, was the McPhee hiring so far from what most of us want Ted to do to replace him? George was an upcoming assistant GM under a respected GM in Pat Quinn, on a team that had very recently made it to the SCF. His resume isn't far from the guys we want, like Benning or Fenton, just less tenured.

Benning and Fenton come from more of a draft & development-centered background than McPhee did at the time. I think that's really what separates them, similar to past names mentioned around here like Kekalainen and Nill. Those guys ought to have the knowledge and network to build a sustainable program from top the bottom.

There really needs to be a culture change in addition to McPhee leaving and it's really about development and a stable coaching environment. Their existing emphasis on the draft is vaguely on the right path but their execution, balance and actual development over the years has been arguably their greatness organizational weakness (along with coaching other than maybe the one hire that was pretty much dumb luck).

Can you get worse than McPhee when it comes to building from the net out or on defense given his entire tenure? That would be some kind of awful. The grinderfication of the Caps is one thing but the thin bluelines another. You'd have to think a guy that's long been with Boston or Nashville would never neglect the blueline. That alone would help get them on the path towards being respectable again.

 

[txpd]

so....leonsis hires a first time gm. that means low on the cost scale. very likely he hires a assistant coach or ahl coach he has worked with and knows him. another inexperienced coach.

how many of you think a rookie gm is going to hire a head coach with 10 years in the league and a cup ring?

since everybody hear beats up McPhee for hiring first time coaches, don't we want a replacement for McPhee to be an established veteran gm with a track record? a track record that includes hiring experienced coaches?

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

so....leonsis hires a first time gm. that means low on the cost scale. very likely he hires a assistant coach or ahl coach he has worked with and knows him. another inexperienced coach.

how many of you think a rookie gm is going to hire a head coach with 10 years in the league and a cup ring?

since everybody hear beats up McPhee for hiring first time coaches, don't we want a replacement for McPhee to be an established veteran gm with a track record? a track record that includes hiring experienced coaches?

Kekelainen's stuck with Todd Richards for two years now who was brought in by the previous administration. Nill brought in Lindy Ruff, which is about as experienced as you can get.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

so....leonsis hires a first time gm. that means low on the cost scale. very likely he hires a assistant coach or ahl coach he has worked with and knows him. another inexperienced coach.

how many of you think a rookie gm is going to hire a head coach with 10 years in the league and a cup ring?

since everybody hear beats up McPhee for hiring first time coaches, don't we want a replacement for McPhee to be an established veteran gm with a track record? a track record that includes hiring experienced coaches?

5 years ago I would have said yes, I want an established GM and coach. Now I think it just matters that a new vision with a winning attitude is brought in. "I like our team" when the D is half AHL is propaganda and a joke.

 

[ChibiPooky]

It's gotten to the point where I'm actually in favor of change for the sake of change.

 

[g00n]

so....leonsis hires a first time gm. that means low on the cost scale. very likely he hires a assistant coach or ahl coach he has worked with and knows him. another inexperienced coach.

how many of you think a rookie gm is going to hire a head coach with 10 years in the league and a cup ring?

since everybody hear beats up McPhee for hiring first time coaches, don't we want a replacement for McPhee to be an established veteran gm with a track record? a track record that includes hiring experienced coaches?

Ah, one of your false equivalence hypocrisy tests. I'll bite anyway.

Maybe we do, maybe we don't. Do you think being a GM is the same as being a coach?

Is it possible that a rookie GM may be adept at keeping up with the trends in the league, the cap fluctuations, ways of interacting with other GMs, and so on and so forth? Could someone with league administrative experience have a great vision and abilities adapt that may be superior to an experienced and less flexible GM?

Yes, it's entirely possible. And the job is basically the same for every GM when it comes to filling a roster while staying under the cap. How you do it is what separates you.

Compare that to coaching. It's much more of a hands on player-oriented position that benefits from personality, motivational traits, and generally experience in managing an increasingly diverse and multi-national roster of professionals to victory over other professionals trying to do the same thing to you.... day after day, year after year, with over 100 years evolution of the game itself thrown into the mix and a 24/7 instant media positioned everywhere you go, taking your picture and putting a mic in your face.

Is it possible a rookie coach can step in and excel in those circumstances? Maybe, but it's a long shot and a lot depends on how in synch he and his GM and the roster are, as I said in another post. A well-built team with a clear vision can succeed under a rookie coach who fits that vision.

I don't think either job is easy, but they are not the same. When you have a roster full of superstars with a limited window you can't afford to take big chances and experiment for years and years when it comes to coaching and strategies. Every time you crumple up the napkin with your plans and start a new one you're cutting into the years available in the window you have UNLESS you are just so good at what you do you can keep replacing and developing new players as the old ones fade away.

GMGM has had 15 years to replace a Cup finals blueline he inherited, and he has failed to do so. It's probably even less likely he'll be able to replace a generational talent he lucked into, and who has largely carried his teams, filled seats, and protected his job.


I don't care who you hire as long as they know what they're doing, do a good job, admit and correct errors, and focus more on results than "professionalism" or spin or marketing.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

I'm on the fence when it comes to trading Green, and here's why:

We won't get anything for Green. Absolutely nothing. He's injury prone, and thanks to Oates, doesn't put up good numbers anymore either.

On the flip side, if we got a coach that actually knew how to utilize him, he'd prove far more valuable on our team than anyone/anything we'd get back in a trade for him.

Is he worth 6M? No. Under Oates he's worth about 1M, and under a good coach, he'd probably be worth about 5.

He's tied for 17th in the league in defenseman scoring despite the 8 missed games, and close to a 50 point pace. If you think that doesn't have value in this league, I'd like to direct you to the contracts Wideman, Carle, Streit, and others have signed in the last couple offseasons. Green can absolutely get the sort of return Ribeiro earned the Stars - a good prospect and a 2nd - maybe even more considering how much younger Green is.

 

[txpd]

at this point I am for letting McPhee go and seeing the new gm changing the coaching staff. I'd keep the scouting guys as the drafting has been good. but fire them too.

I am tired of this constant burr under the saddle. lets replace these guys. we can then have a different conversation. either these guys are better or leonsis is an idiot.

 

[Mothra]

I'm on the fence when it comes to trading Green, and here's why:

We won't get anything for Green. Absolutely nothing. He's injury prone, and thanks to Oates, doesn't put up good numbers anymore either.

On the flip side, if we got a coach that actually knew how to utilize him, he'd prove far more valuable on our team than anyone/anything we'd get back in a trade for him.

Is he worth 6M? No. Under Oates he's worth about 1M, and under a good coach, he'd probably be worth about 5.

One of these days people will actually look at 52 and assign responsibility for being productive to...you know....him

if its so obvious 52 would flourish under a different coach, seems he would have plenty of value.

 

[Mothra]

He may or may not answer you himself but I've had this discussion with him before. He sets up the slippery slope argument that if you do X then therefore Z with no logical Y prior to that. He argues that significant change means 3-5 years of sucking and that means all the stars need to be traded. His defense of Green is that he can return to his old form because why not, and if you don't think so then you're wrong because we didn't trade Ovechkin and Ovie's numbers went down and then up again.

Essentially, in his scenarios we're being held hostage by the fear of trading Ovechkin and stinking for 5 years while holding out hope that players like Green reverse the trends of the last few years. In some threads he attacks fans for being "self loathing" and hating everything about the organization, then within minutes or hours he's in a thread like this saying he's OK with changing GMs BUT we're all still idiots and X=Z.

That about sum it up, tx? Saved you some typing, I hope.

TX and I go back a long ways and have had it out many times...I like him and generally read most of what he posts. We see eye to eye a lot, but not always thats for sure...what I find odd about the 52 thing is, when Ovechkin was in that down period, he seemed ready to say that was it from now on. I believe he is the one that said the Caps were now paying Lucic 9 mil...if im wrong correct me but thats how I recall it.

This is why the 52 thing is just more puzzling....this guy was a player. The guy they pine for was a game changer, he hasnt been that kind of player in years, no not even last year. People see him make a slick move with no one around him and for some reason are still in awe....the league has so figured this out. To think the 1st team all-star version of 52 is still out there is false hope....its certainly hoping because you cant actually point to something, other than his past.

 

[txpd]

I don't think I ever said that ovechkin was a 9m lucic. I don't think that is said that what ov was was all he would be from here out.

I think what I said was that IF ov was a diminished player by virtue of injury that the caps should consider moving him. had he become a lecavalier like figure.

as I often do, I pointed out that we didn't have the required inside information to make that decision. Was he injured even?

My view on Green is that he is an irreplaceable player when able to play his game. I would not trade him unless convinced based on data only the team would have would conclude that he was damaged beyond repair. Removing Green from the power play either means he is in the doghouse or the caps have concluded Green is done and they need to see if Carlson can replace a large amount of Green's offensive duties.

I don't know the answer. Oates has made some pretty odd lineup and player management choices. So, I find it hard to conclude that what Oates thinks of Green must be the reality.

 

[g00n]

TX and I go back a long ways and have had it out many times...I like him and generally read most of what he posts. We see eye to eye a lot, but not always thats for sure...what I find odd about the 52 thing is, when Ovechkin was in that down period, he seemed ready to say that was it from now on. I believe he is the one that said the Caps were now paying Lucic 9 mil...if im wrong correct me but thats how I recall it.

This is why the 52 thing is just more puzzling....this guy was a player. The guy they pine for was a game changer, he hasnt been that kind of player in years, no not even last year. People see him make a slick move with no one around him and for some reason are still in awe....the league has so figured this out. To think the 1st team all-star version of 52 is still out there is false hope....its certainly hoping because you cant actually point to something, other than his past.

IMO Green will never regain his form under Oates, and possibly not under GMGM. In Oates he has a coach who refuses to motivate BUT insists on systems that dictate where his skill players are (the Bourque Rule in this case). This is the exact opposite of what Green needs and is a big reason he's not producing. Green requires a coach that takes exceptional interest in maximizing his talents and motivating him to bring his best every shift, every night. Oates is not doing either.

The other issue extends back to GMGM and that's the failure to protect players like Green or address the blueline in general. While I do believe Mike Green is largely responsible for what Mike Green does, it does not help that he's so often put in positions to be run or injured, as we saw when he was forced to play along the boards so much in DH's system, and now in Oates' system where he's constantly forechecked with little help.

The result is an even lazier and less effective #52 who's locked in a downward spiral of "why bother", confusion and CYA against injury.

 

[usiel]

Honestly probably a bit of a wakeup call for the organization missing the playoffs. I guess on the more deep changes for me would be to:

-Let GMGM go and bring in some new blood but keep Mahoney & Co.

-New GM lets Oates go. The handedness thing is one of the weirdest things I've seen in my 25 years of watching the NHL. If he stays get rid of Calle Jo and maybe Kolzig.

-I think the caps missed the window of going all in and trading picks and prospects. I'd might even entertain trading AO and a mini rebuild (not as bad a starting point as the last) and build around alzner, carlson, backstrom, kuznetsov (yeah I know its early), burakovsky, wilson, majo (though maybe a trade chip), and whatever young players one could get for AO, plus secondary drafted players like latta/brown.

-Look to see whats out there for Green as I think he still has good value for a good puck possession team who needs a #1 PP QB. Hopefully someone with a bit more size and decent mobility.

Barring the whole trade AO.

-resign Grabo
-Try trading green like the scenario above.
-Land one of the top two free agent dman available (yeah its a suck crew this year).
-Laich..this is two years with this stupid groin thing if something can't be done for next season he has to go someway.
-Fine with Chimera/Ward next season.
-Brower/Majo potential trade chips.

 

[artilector]

What are people seeing in Ovie this year that's so different from last year? His Corsi numbers, both for and against, are virtually the same as last year, a little better in fact. He's even scoring at a higher pace.

Some of it is just my frustration, I guess. And I don't really want to get too deep into harping on Ovi.. Let's just say he's not really becoming a more complete player, is getting older, and lately has been less a than consistent force in playoffs. Trading OV is the ultimate reset button, as far as team identity and direction. If I were the new GM, I'd see how things work for a year or two, but it wouldn't be off limits.

...if I were objective. But I'm not, so if the Caps had a 5% of winning the Cup in the next decade with Ovi, and a 10% chance trading Ovi, then I'd probably go with the first option. I'm just saying, I can see scenarios where Caps might be stronger, in the long run, if they get a high return from trading Ovi.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ovy's 10 team no-trade clause does kick in July 1, 2014......

Backstrom's not until 2016.


If I was Leonsis, there's nothing I wouldn't at least consider right now. I'd be shocked if that meant trading #8 though....just too much built around him. Keep the HOF talent and get a guy in here who can build a winner around him. They were close and crapped the bed when it counted...they can get there again IMO with a shrewd team architect.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Some of it is just my frustration, I guess. And I don't really want to get too deep into harping on Ovi.. Let's just say he's not really becoming a more complete player, is getting older, and lately has been less a than consistent force in playoffs. Trading OV is the ultimate reset button, as far as team identity and direction. If I were the new GM, I'd see how things work for a year or two, but it wouldn't be off limits.

...if I were objective. But I'm not, so if the Caps had a 5% of winning the Cup in the next decade with Ovi, and a 10% chance trading Ovi, then I'd probably go with the first option. I'm just saying, I can see scenarios where Caps might be stronger, in the long run, if they get a high return from trading Ovi.

How old was Yzerman when he went from world class offensive player to phenominal two-way beast?

I honestly don't know but I suspect he was older and had played more NHL seasons than Ovy has....maybe I'm incorrect, not sure. I just feel like it's too early to say he'll never mature his overall game.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, trading Ovie is asinine and the worst possible move the organization could make.

Has trading a player of that caliber ever worked out in the history of the league?

 

[usiel]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, trading Ovie is asinine and the worst possible move the organization could make.

Has trading a player of that caliber ever worked out in the history of the league?

Yep but then one run into the inginla situation where they held on too long. But I can certainly understand why franchises do and naturally would not be surprised that the Capitals never do.

 

[txpd]

How old was Yzerman when he went from world class offensive player to phenominal two-way beast?

I honestly don't know but I suspect he was older and had played more NHL seasons than Ovy has....maybe I'm incorrect, not sure. I just feel like it's too early to say he'll never mature his overall game.

iirc yzerman became a defensive player when knee injuries stole away his explosion and with it his offensive game. he didn't give it up as much as had it taken from him.

this would be like a shoulder injury taking away both ovechkin's shot and his hitting ability. turning him into a 25 goal scorer.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Yep but then one run into the inginla situation where they held on too long. But I can certainly understand why franchises do and naturally would not be surprised that the Capitals never do.

Iginla isn't even remotely close to Ovechkin, though.

 

[Halpysback*]

so....leonsis hires a first time gm. that means low on the cost scale. very likely he hires a assistant coach or ahl coach he has worked with and knows him. another inexperienced coach.

how many of you think a rookie gm is going to hire a head coach with 10 years in the league and a cup ring?

since everybody hear beats up McPhee for hiring first time coaches, don't we want a replacement for McPhee to be an established veteran gm with a track record? a track record that includes hiring experienced coaches?

Good point. No way Jim Nill would hire Lindy Ruff.

 

[artilector]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, trading Ovie is asinine and the worst possible move the organization could make.

Has trading a player of that caliber ever worked out in the history of the league?

Well... for one thing, when an organization trades a star, usually it's a sign that things are somewhat rotten in the state of Denmark (not to mention in many cases they wait too long and get fleeced), and this skews things...

 

[g00n]

It happens. Want a recent example? Columbus traded Nash. He was the face of the franchise. I don't know what the exact return ended up being in terms of players (Dubinsky, Anisimov and others), but they tore apart their marketing model and built something more competitive. They went from last in the NHL before the trade to tied for the last playoff spot (lost in tiebreaker) to 3rd in the Metro currently.*

The Rangers on the other hand went from 2nd most points in the NHL to 6th in the East last year and this year.

If that doesn't count, how many players in history are we going to put in Ovie's class in order to discuss comparables?


*Wrap your head around that....Cbus was last in the entire freaking league 2 years ago, and now sit at 3rd in the tough Metro division in an unfamiliar conference. Why do we need 5, 10 and 15 year plans again??? How many other teams have turned things around in 1 or 2 years, or even IN SEASON like the Flyers this year?

 

[Calicaps]

It happens. Want a recent example? Columbus traded Nash. He was the face of the franchise. I don't know what the exact return ended up being in terms of players (Dubinsky, Anisimov and others), but they tore apart their marketing model and built something more competitive. They went from last in the NHL before the trade to tied for the last playoff spot (lost in tiebreaker) to 3rd in the Metro currently.*

The Rangers on the other hand went from 2nd most points in the NHL to 6th in the East last year and this year.

If that doesn't count, how many players in history are we going to put in Ovie's class in order to discuss comparables?


*Wrap your head around that....Cbus was last in the entire freaking league 2 years ago, and now sit at 3rd in the tough Metro division in an unfamiliar conference. Why do we need 5, 10 and 15 year plans again??? How many other teams have turned things around in 1 or 2 years, or even IN SEASON like the Flyers this year?

I see your point, but I frankly wouldn't put Nash in Ovie's category either. Face of the franchise, sure, but no kind of generational talent. It's too soon to give up on 8. He was MVP of the league last season FFS.