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What are the chances MacKinnon is a bust?

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tfong

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Hypothetically, and it is purely hypothetical...but what are the chances MacKinnon busts and we see the next Daigle or Stefan? Are there holes in his game that most of us have simply over looked because we don't watch him on a game to game basis?

I mean who would have thought someone like Johnson would've been traded 6 years after draft because the team no longer thought of him as their franchise player?

Howmuch of MacKinnon is hype rather than fact? Does he really have the traits of a franchise altering player? Or just a solid first liner?

I say this as I just happened to be thinking how much Drouin made a name for himself in the WJC and MCK was more of an after thought.
 
Let's just say the 12/13 Canadian Junior team was one of the worst coached teams I can remember seeing. Right from the beginning with the personnel choices and the immediate lack of discipline in the early stages; it was obvious there were some fundamental flaws with that roster as a whole. And alas, they did not medal. I wouldn't put any stock in his performance at the World Juniors. He was given a marginal position on the team, where he was asked to play he role of a 4th liner. Kind of awkward for one of the most offensively talented prospects in the world to playing a role player's position on a team.

I personally feel both Jonathan Drouin and Nathan MacKinnon are tremendous talents but it's MacKinnon's physical attributes that set him apart from Drouin. When he's not scoring he's a tremendous two-way player, and uses his size and physicality to make a difference. When Drouin isn't scoring, he's effectively useless. Furthermore, MacKinnon is a better goalscorer while I would say Drouin has better vision. I can't see MacKinnon busting -- at all. His game simply translates too well to the NHL-style of game, while Drouin's on the other hand is a much bigger question mark. I think both will be great players in the NHL but MacKinnon's ceiling as a complete hockey player as opposed to one-way offensive force puts him above Drouin.
 
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At worst the kid looks like a solid 2nd line center. He simply works too hard and has too much talent to not make it in the NHL. His absolutely basement, floor, bust possibility is like a 40-50 point solid defensive center.
 
tfong said:
Hypothetically, and it is purely hypothetical...but what are the chances MacKinnon busts and we see the next Daigle or Stefan? Are there holes in his game that most of us have simply over looked because we don't watch him on a game to game basis?

I mean who would have thought someone like Johnson would've been traded 6 years after draft because the team no longer thought of him as their franchise player?

Howmuch of MacKinnon is hype rather than fact? Does he really have the traits of a franchise altering player? Or just a solid first liner?

I say this as I just happened to be thinking how much Drouin made a name for himself in the WJC and MCK was more of an after thought.
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You're putting too much stock in the world juniors. It's a short tournament, tiny sample size.
 
tfong said:
I say this as I just happened to be thinking how much Drouin made a name for himself in the WJC and MCK was more of an after thought.
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MacKinnon is certainly not the first, and won't be the last, highly regarded draft eligible player to struggle at the WJC.

It is rare for a 17 year old to have a big impact in a tournament dominated by 19 year olds. In most cases, they just do not get the ice time or the responsibility to really flourish.

Scouting has come a long way since the days of Daigle and Stefan. And in both of their cases, it was a lack of desire to work hard and compete that led to their demise.
 
I'll point out that a lot of people (me included) were calling for Mackinnon to receive more ice time at the WJC, because he looked really good in the very limited role he had. I'd say his worst-case-scenario (barring injury) is a Darren Helm-type checking forward
 
HockeyThoughts said:
Let's just say the 12/13 Canadian Junior team was one of the worst coached teams I can remember seeing. Right from the beginning with the personnel choices and the immediate lack of discipline in the early stages; it was obvious there were some fundamental flaws with that roster as a whole. And alas, they did not medal. I wouldn't put any stock in his performance at the World Juniors. He was given a marginal position on the team, where he was asked to play he role of a 4th liner. Kind of awkward for one of the most offensively talented prospects in the world to playing a role player's position on a team.

I personally feel both Jonathan Drouin and Nathan MacKinnon are tremendous talents but it's MacKinnon's physical attributes that set him apart from Drouin. When he's not scoring he's a tremendous two-way player, and uses his size and physicality to make a difference. When Drouin isn't scoring, he's effectively useless. Furthermore, MacKinnon is a better goalscorer while I would say Drouin has better vision. I can't see MacKinnon busting -- at all. His game simply translates too well to the NHL-style of game, while Drouin's on the other hand is a much bigger question mark. I think both will be great players in the NHL but MacKinnon's ceiling as a complete hockey player as opposed to one-way offensive force puts him above Drouin.
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Well he wasn't going to play ahead of R. N-H, Huberdeau , Strome, Rattie and Scheifele, being 17.
 
BOUNCE said:
Comet has a higher chance of hitting the earth then Mackinnon being a bust.
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Does career ending injury or death constitute a player being a bust? Cause I'm pretty sure that's more likely than a comet hitting the earth.

Also I wonder if anyone said this about Patrick Stefan and Alexandre Daigle.
 
DuckJet said:
Does career ending injury or death constitute a player being a bust? Cause I'm pretty sure that's more likely than a comet hitting the earth.

Also I wonder if anyone said this about Patrick Stefan and Alexandre Daigle.
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That's guys 14 years ago and 20. Lots has changed in scouting since then.

Johnson is a defence man to whoever brought him up, more bust potential. Look at the first forward taken in every draft since 99. Who's the worst? Jordan Staal? Who's second worst?

Nate is a pretty safe bet.
 
tfong said:
Hypothetically, and it is purely hypothetical...but what are the chances MacKinnon busts and we see the next Daigle or Stefan? Are there holes in his game that most of us have simply over looked because we don't watch him on a game to game basis?

I mean who would have thought someone like Johnson would've been traded 6 years after draft because the team no longer thought of him as their franchise player?

Howmuch of MacKinnon is hype rather than fact? Does he really have the traits of a franchise altering player? Or just a solid first liner?

I say this as I just happened to be thinking how much Drouin made a name for himself in the WJC and MCK was more of an after thought.
Click to expand...

If Drouin didn't make the team, Nate would be getting even more hype as the only 17year old forward besides Crosby to ever make a lockout year WJC team.
 
With his size, skating and hands even if he bombs offensively his compete level would ensure, he could easily transition into a very good checking forward. So if by bust you mean fringe NHLer or not making the NHL i'd say the chances of that are near zero.
 
mapes said:
That's guys 14 years ago and 20. Lots has changed in scouting since then.

Johnson is a defence man to whoever brought him up, more bust potential. Look at the first forward taken in every draft since 99. Who's the worst? Jordan Staal? Who's second worst?

Nate is a pretty safe bet.
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Yea, scouting has come a long way. The 90s were pretty tough on the first forward taken. Daigle, Bonk, Kilger, Dumont, and Stefan were all 1st forwards the selected in their draft.

I would say Mackinnon is definitely not "bust" material. The guy's hands around the net and his speed/shot are just too elite. That said, there is a possibility that he doesn't pan out as a top liner, just b/c his hockey IQ is relatively low for 1st overall standards. Guys like Tavares, Kane, Crosby, Stamkos, RNH all had elite hockey sense.

Its a bit tougher to be project higher level prospects who play the game like Hall or Yakupov just because they rely so heavily on their physical talents.

That said, I think Mackinnon thinks the game plenty well to at least be a consistent 20+ goal 50+ point player in his prime, like maybe a David Legwand. That's the floor for him IMO, with a ceiling of maybe 40g 90p. I personally project him to be a Patrick Marleau type player. Fast, powerful goal scorer who will generally hit 30+ goals and 70+ points in his prime.
 
Depending on the defintion of "bust." Stefan was definitely a bust but it wasnt like Daigle was completely useless in the NHL. I beleieve MacKinnon will never live up to his draft position and will underachieve for his entire career. I do not see Nate being a star and believe Droin will be the better player.
 
Unless players have an absolutely marvelous or hideous performance at the WJC, it shouldn't be used to judge a prospect at all.

Look at a guy like Dougie Hamilton, he didn't look good to me at all in the WJC and now he's playing upwards of 15-20 mins on the Bruins. Clearly your performance at the WJC doesn't have to define you.

MacKinnon won't bust, I highly doubt it.
 
I like that suggestion of Darren Helm as being a worst case scenario. MacKinnon is one of the best skaters in the league and he's only getting better when it comes to his strength. Barring an injury that robs him of his skating, the worst possible outcome I could see is if his scoring doesn't translate to the pro leagues.
 
Scouter said:
Well he wasn't going to play ahead of R. N-H, Huberdeau , Strome, Rattie and Scheifele, being 17.
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You'd think he would though, considering he's better at hockey than all of them not named RNH.

Anyways, he's not going to "bust". He'll have a regular spot in the NHL regardless of production. He's big and skates better than many NHLers. Only thing that'll determine top 6 or bottom 6 is if he suddenly becomes stupid.
 
Considering what he's done and he's one of the YOUNGEST players in this draft. He is born only a few days before being a 2014 draft pick...he's going to be good.
 
IMO it will take a devastating injury for him to bust. He's too explosive and skilled not to make the NHL even as a bottom 6er as others have said.
 
He's got a great attitude along with his natural ability. Being a rink rat and overall "nerd" about the game while having incredible God-given skill is a good recipe for a player to be unlikely to bust.
 
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