Werenski or Dahlin?

[gritdash60]

Right now Werenski, but in the long run also Werenski.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Fair enough I guess.

As someone who has watched an awful lot of bad sabres hockey over the years, trust me when I say I wish I was wrong.

 

[Three On Zero]

The one good at his actual position, Werenski.

 

[wetcoast]

Werenski is easily the better player today.

Dahlin is younger however, and also quite good, so it depends on how much you value those few extra years.

Dahlin is 3 years younger so that's the difference for me here.

 

[loadie]

Dahlin for me

 

[Crow]

Dahlin is 3 years younger so that's the difference for me here.

Really I would have guessed like 5

 

[FlyguyOX]

I always gravitate towards the smarter player moreso than the more athletically gifted one.

So werenski. Dahlin is plain dumb way too often.

 

[biturbo19]

Right now at this moment, it's Werenski.

But it's close enough that long-term, all things considered...i think it swings to Dahlin for me.

 

[sadpanda]

Here is what happened to the Sabres and their entire season after Dahlin got hurt at the start of the 3rd period in a game they were leading 4-1 at the time that caused him to be out for the next few weeks:

Prior years while he was playing they were hot

 

[sabremike]

Prior years while he was playing they were hot

Him getting taken out of the lineup for nearly a month by a Carter Verhege cheapshop literally cost us a playoff spot in 22-23.

 

[Aladyyn]

Always funny to see the new mental gymnastics this place comes up with to downplay Dahlin

 

[Kuz]

Always funny to see the new mental gymnastics this place comes up with to downplay Dahlin

Most players seem to have to leave Buffalo to get respect. Eichel, ROR, Reinhart and now Dahlin. Switch teams for Dahlin and Morissey and I dont see Buffalo getting better.

 

[Machinehead]

I still take Dahlin. This season has been an outlier in Werenski's career so far.

 

[Dumais]

I still take Dahlin. This season has been an outlier in Werenski's career so far.

Werenski has always been a 40point dman, last year was an outlier 57pts in 70games. This year is also looking like an outlier with 59pts in 55games. At 27 years old, is this Zach entering his prime or is the uptick in scoring league wide the cause?

 

[majormajor]

Werenski has always been a 40point dman, last year was an outlier 57pts in 70games. This year is also looking like an outlier with 59pts in 55games. At 27 years old, is this Zach entering his prime or is the uptick in scoring league wide the cause?

League scoring is actually down a bit the last couple years, to where it was 5-7 years ago.

It also just doesn't explain much - even if it goes up by 10%, how does that explain a D-man scoring 100% more than he did a few years ago?

 

[Dumais]

League scoring is actually down a bit the last couple years, to where it was 5-7 years ago.

It also just doesn't explain much - even if it goes up by 10%, how does that explain a D-man scoring 100% more than he did a few years ago?

Maybe not league wide but scoring for the top players have gone up. Multiple 100pt forwards, multiple PPG dmen wasn't a thing until the last handful of years.

It's probably just me looking for reasons to explain away what he's doing, because CBJ can't have nice things lol

 

[dirtydanglez]

Werenski has always been a 40point dman, last year was an outlier 57pts in 70games. This year is also looking like an outlier with 59pts in 55games. At 27 years old, is this Zach entering his prime or is the uptick in scoring league wide the cause?

he's finally get a team build around him.

 

[Fatass]

Closely matched skills but separated by how much more quickly Werenski processes the play.

 

[Dumais]

he's finally get a team build around him.

That would be typical CBJ. Werenski peaks after everyone leaves and because of it; never got the respect he deserved.

Yeah, I'm good with that option too.

 

[Romang67]

Dahlin is chilling at 55% xGF% this season, with a +12% xGF% relative to his teammates. 3 other players on the team with significant play time are even above 50%.

He's +11 5v5 on a bad team.

The Sabres went 0-6-2 in the games where he got injured and then was out injured.

So the Sabres carry the play when he's on the ice, they outscore the opposition, and they certainly did much worse when he wasn't playing.

Why are people acting as if he's having a bad season? Is it because it's the Sabres, and the Sabres suck?

 

[Regal]

Dahlin is chilling at 55% xGF% this season, with a +12% xGF% relative to his teammates. 3 other players on the team with significant play time are even above 50%.

He's +11 5v5 on a bad team.

The Sabres went 0-6-2 in the games where he got injured and then was out injured.

So the Sabres carry the play when he's on the ice, they outscore the opposition, and they certainly did much worse when he wasn't playing.

Why are people acting as if he's having a bad season? Is it because it's the Sabres, and the Sabres suck?

42 points in 46 games as well (75 point pace). I think both the Sabres continuing to spin their wheels and the fact that he was so hyped have led him to become underrated. I do agree with those that he can make some boneheaded decisions at times but he’s still a top 10 defenseman

 

[Regal]

League scoring is actually down a bit the last couple years, to where it was 5-7 years ago.

It also just doesn't explain much - even if it goes up by 10%, how does that explain a D-man scoring 100% more than he did a few years ago?

Last year was still higher than any year since 95-96 other than the previous two. This year it’s down slightly, more in line with 18-19 and 19-20, but the uptick still seems to be affecting top players more than others, and top defensemen in particular. I think the activation in defensemen is a much bigger part of todays game than at any time since the early 90s, and has affected defenseman scoring along with it. 27 of the top 50 ES scoring seasons among defensemen since 95-96 happened in the 3 years before this one, and Werenski, Hughes and Makar will almost certainly join that group after this year.
I agree though that it doesn’t explain Werenski’s number jump this year though

 

[Regal]

Dahlin didn't take a step back from greatness in my view, he was always in that 5th-12th best D group and his points are riding up and down with team offense.

If Werenski can keep skating like this - incredibly fast, wheeling the ice every shift, and by a good margin covering more ice than any other player in the league over the course of a game - then Werenski is going to keep doing this. So as long as he's healthy he's going to be in his prime.

There isn't going to be a system change that reduces his rover style - you can see on Team USA that Werenski can't move as much - but every coach (including Torts) has recognized that his NHL team is best when Werenski is everywhere on the ice.

There might be fewer points if forwards cool off in a given year. And I'm not sure about the PP. Werenski was never particularly good as a PP QB - in a stationary position he clearly lacked the vision, dexterity, and fakes of the great PP QBs - so maybe he'll turn back into a pumpkin there. Currently he's moving the puck much better with a faster release, and added a slapshot threat that helps the PP - until this year he played with a whippy stick and it slowed his release and meant he wasn't one-timing pucks. He's now playing with Josi's stick.

Yea I don’t think Dahlin dropped off in play really, I was more talking about the spike in production over 2/3 of the 22-23 season that ended up being unsustainable so far. Sounds like Werenski both improved and that improvement forced the coaches to use him in a way that maximizes his abilities, so that makes sense that he could keep this up. You’re right that it’s interesting he’s used the same way for Team USA, when typically national teams will limit defensemen roving since it’s not always needed with elite forwards, unless the player is so good that it’s a better option

 

[majormajor]

Yea I don’t think Dahlin dropped off in play really, I was more talking about the spike in production over 2/3 of the 22-23 season that ended up being unsustainable so far. Sounds like Werenski both improved and that improvement forced the coaches to use him in a way that maximizes his abilities, so that makes sense that he could keep this up. You’re right that it’s interesting he’s used the same way for Team USA, when typically national teams will limit defensemen roving since it’s not always needed with elite forwards, unless the player is so good that it’s a better option

They did limit Werenski in the game vs Canada. They were protecting the lead and him and Fox didn't get many shifts. He can play great defense too, but they had McAvoy having a great game and Slavin-Faber is a great shutdown pairing, so I get it. But you're right, in the Sweden game they had Werenski going everywhere and he drove a good chunk of the US offense.

You're right that the roving is not as valuable if he's merely switching places with an elite F covering for him, but he's still breaking the defensive coverage by 1) rotating and wheeling around sowing confusion, and 2) creating odd-man situations with simple speed, where he has the wheels to get back and doesn't need anyone to cover for him.

Werenski has always been a rover since his first games in the NHL - that supposed overly conservative Torts saw a 19 year old rookie and decided to have him go all over the ice and be everywhere. And that's the role he's played with every coach since - some of the systems have been stifling and hurt team production - but every coach has realized the team is best with Werenski trying to do everything.

What really changed is over the summer, largely Werenski's athleticism. We all saw immediately in camp that he looked different. He was just as strong but not as bulky and top heavy. His footspeed was a lot quicker - he was always fast with long slow strides - now he's incredibly fast. He said he learned a lot from training and on-ice sessions with guys like Quinn Hughes, seeing how seriously they take every puck touch, even in the summer. He changed his diet - going mostly paleo I think. And he changed his stick, he was training with Josi and he tried Josi's stick. Zach had been using a very whippy stick since at least his time at Michigan, and with Josi's stick now he has a more responsive touch and can one touch and one time much better. His handling is faster.

Basically what I'm saying is that he's a better player in a lot of striking ways. It's a sustainable change and though his point totals will depend on team effects, his caliber of play is better because he got better.