Were They Really Upsets?

[Zack Kelly]

Switzerland and Finland come out on top tonight. Analytically this was an upset but was it really?
First of all as a Canadian and someone who watched every game of the tournament Canada really only played one good game, that game being the 14-0 stomping against Denmark this game will provide Canadian players with a major boost in stats to cement themselves in statistically having good individual player stats.

Examples:
Frost 5 points V.S Denmark 8 points end of tourney
Bouchard 3 points V.S Denmark 3 points end of tourney
Glass 4 points V.S Denmark 6 points end of tourney
Comtois 4 points V.S Denmark 6 points end of tourney
Leason 4 points V.S Denmark 5 points end of tourney

Obviously im not saying these are bad stats in total but as you can see players like Leason only managed one more point after the Denmark game, Bouchard being scoreless and so on. Finland on the other hand has a roster with a couple NHL tested players who have played or are playing in the NHL. This mixed with the fact that Finland has a relatively deep team with a Great goalie was bound to give Canada a run for their money.

Sweden V.S Switzerland was a different story, i'm not really sure why people are calling this a huge upset. Switzerland has been solid the whole tourney with the likes of Kurashev playing unreal as well as Hollenstien playing out of his mind. Sweden has been very average this tourney, couple very strong players like Bemstrom, Sandin, Boqvist and a couple other forwards.

Looking at the IIHF website for the tourney you can see the team stats for each team in the tourney and you can see that Switzerland is rated higher in every category except for Power Play

I don't think these games were as big of an upset as most people believe

Click to read more...

 

[blindpass]

Finland over Canada was a slight upset.

Switzerland over Sweden a much bigger one.

 

[Atas2000]

No upsets at all if you followed some tournaments before this one. Both Canada and Sweden were entering the tournament with weak rosters for their standards. It was known. The round robin results, especially that meaningless stomping of Denmark by Canada marred the vision for many, but the games that matter just brought back to light the obvious. It might sting for Sweden to have lost to Switzerland and not say USA or Russia, but with Switzerland having a strong tournament this is not surprising at all either. And give the Finns credit. I don't know who and why would expect Canada to be clear cut favorites before that game. Just because this is Canada? Well maybe some canadian players got caught up in that perception.

 

[Drake1588]

Apples and oranges. The Finland program has enjoyed considerable success at the U20 level in recent years and is a power. It's a slight upset but not a shocker. This wasn't an especially strong Canadian team, and that isn't just revisionist history.

The Swiss beating Sweden is an enormous upset. It kind of has the feeling of an inflection point for the Swiss national program... As in the Swiss could be challenging Slovakia very soon and potentially even the Czech Republic at the U20 level. It's a statement and it's yet another example of a dominant round robin showing from the Swedes giving way to a face plant in the medal rounds.

 

[llwyd]

Well, in terms of recent tournament history Finns beating Canada is not much of an upset though we tend to struggle on small ice against North Americans. Switzerland has had tougher time than in the men's tournaments as its player production still trails the bigger hockey nations, so I would say that it's clearly a bigger surprise, but still they often come close even in this tournament.

 

[NoMessi]

I thought many had Finland as the favorites to win it all this year? I definitely had them over Canada this year.

Im too bitter to comment the real upset though.

"we had no Dahlin", but they didnt have Hischier so it evens out. UGH

 

[LoveHateLeafs]

If you told people on December 26th that Finland would beat Canada in the quarterfinal, I don't think they would be that surprised, since the Finns acquitted themselves very well in their exhibition win against Canada on the 23rd and Canada's roster wasn't up to their usual standards. But considering that Finland's play so far in the actual tournament has been terrible and almost every Finnish player has badly failed to meet expectations (with the exceptions of Luukkonen, Heinola and maybe Talvitie), then I'm comfortable calling it an upset.

I didn't watch any of Switzerland's other games, but with the exception of their 3rd-period meltdown against the USA, I thought Sweden looked like the best team in the tournament by far. That being said, I think the overall skill level in this tournament was the worst in years.

 

[CanadaIsIrrelevant]

Finland over Canada was a slight upset.

Switzerland over Sweden a much bigger one.

Not really since Sweden weren't favorites this year and not gold candidates.
Weak team compared to last year.

 

[Urbanskog]

The probability of Canada's win was estimated to be 72.65% - 75.82% while the probability of Sweden's win was estimated to be 81.47% - 86.67% so yes, these certainly were upsets.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I had Finland over Canada.

But the Swiss was a surprise. I expected a good game but thought Sweden would win like 4-2 or something.

The real surprising part of it was how Switzerland outplayed Sweden. This wasn't a fluke, they were the better team.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Not really since Sweden weren't favorites this year and not gold candidates.
Weak team compared to last year.

That really doesn't matter. Weaker Sweden or not it was a massive upset.

 

[Oilslick941611]

That really doesn't matter. Weaker Sweden or not it was a massive upset.

Well, no, it matters. It doesn’t change the fact that they were upsets. But it does strength of the rosters matters and anything can happen in single elimination games. Canada had a weaker roster than usual this year, I’m not well versed in other countries rosters to say if Sweden had a weak roster. This is good for the game though. To see Switzerland finally get a win against a power team in a playoff is great, and Finland is always a thorn in the side of the power teams, and certainly given Canada a run for its money in the last decade.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

That really doesn't matter. Weaker Sweden or not it was a massive upset.

I'm hoping the Swiss have now moved on to Sweden as their upset and leave Canada alone now. LOL!

It's been a weird tournament for sure, but anyone can win in any given year. USA vs Russia semi-final seems like the gold medal game at this point. Maybe Switzerland wins gold though, that would be something!

 

[Martinez]

Agreed. I had/have Finland winning gold.
This poll has them second for gold
WJC U20 - Which team wins gold?

I don’t see how it’s a big surprise when one good team beats another good team in single elimination.

 

[Urbanskog]

Well, no, it matters. It doesn’t change the fact that they were upsets. But it does strength of the rosters matters and anything can happen in single elimination games. Canada had a weaker roster than usual this year, I’m not well versed in other countries rosters to say if Sweden had a weak roster. This is good for the game though. To see Switzerland finally get a win against a power team in a playoff is great, and Finland is always a thorn in the side of the power teams, and certainly given Canada a run for its money in the last decade.

That's a rather belittling way to talk about the team that has eliminated Canada in three consecutive WJC elimination round match-ups.

 

[Arselona]

Swiss have great national teams and are producing top quality prospects. They were not the favorites against Sweden but personally I'm not upset.

 

[LAINEC]

Maybe Switzerland wins gold though, that would be something!

I think Swiss win gold this year. They play awesome hockey now.

 

[Oilslick941611]

That's a rather belittling way to talk about the team that has eliminated Canada in three consecutive WJC elimination round match-ups.

in what way? how is it belittling?

its giving them credit for beating Canada and saying they have been thorns in the side for all the power teams.

Finland isn't a "power" team in the way Canada, Russia, Sweden and the US are. there's no shame in that, when they start winning tournaments at all levels, then we can add them to that tier.

 

[Nizdizzle]

The probability of Canada's win was estimated to be 72.65% - 75.82% while the probability of Sweden's win was estimated to be 81.47% - 86.67% so yes, these certainly were upsets.

What are you basing these numbers on?

 

[BusQuets]

Finland over Canada is no way upset. Finland beat them twice, once in tournament and once in pre-tournament. Swiss over Swedes was obviously upset but not as big one as some think. Swiss are legit hockey power these days.

Also i see some Canadian posters are salty against Finland. cough* @Declassified cough*.

 

[Scouter]

Finland over Canada is no way upset. Finland beat them twice, once in tournament and once in pre-tournament. Swiss over Swedes was obviously upset but not as big one as some think. Swiss are legit hockey power these days.

Also i see some Canadian posters are salty against Finland. cough* @Declassified cough*.

No, do you even know what their team is like, on paper it's weak, they have overachieved here.

 

[BusQuets]

No, do you even know what their team is like, on paper it's weak, they have overachieved here.

But we do not live in paper, do we?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Anytime Canada loses it's an upset because it's Canada

 

[Scouter]

But we do not live in paper, do we?

Yeah, that's why I said they punched above their weight, they are not going to have these performances most of the time, they are far from a power and competing with the big 6.

 

[Dr Pepper]

in what way? how is it belittling?

its giving them credit for beating Canada and saying they have been thorns in the side for all the power teams.

Finland isn't a "power" team in the way Canada, Russia, Sweden and the US are. there's no shame in that, when they start winning tournaments at all levels, then we can add them to that tier.

Finland is absolutely a power team, please take off your rose-coloured glasses.

They've won two of the last five WJC's, and are looking like a solid bet to at the very least play for a third gold medal since 2014.

Sweden, despite their decade-long run of dominance in the group stage, has one gold medal to show for it. And Russia hasn't won WJC gold since 2011, although that could change this year as well. Perhaps it'll be a Russia-Finland final.

Or Switzerland-USA, who knows. That's the beauty of this tourney, anything can happen.