Post-Game Talk: Well we knew it would be a slog

[McFlyingV]

Watch the shot in slow motion....Marchand's stick hits Skinners stick and the puck goes underneath.
Just a very unlucky goal.

So in any event....I am not blaming Bouchard for the loss but he was directly at fault on that play.
That stuff has to be cleaned up. Full stop.

Imo they need to make 2 adjustments. They need to recognize better on those contested blue line plays that Florida is trying to fly the zone with a guy and need to react either with the contested side D falling back, or the opposite side D back tracking quicker if he's going to pinch. It doesn't matter to me which option they choose. Keeping the zone is great, but the Oilers aren't really struggling with zone entries as a whole so not holding the line isn't the end of the world.

The other is the Oilers need to adapt to Florida pinching down and make better chip or reverse plays. Their biggest issue last game was just holding on to pucks for too long and making the Florida forecheck look better than it was. I can't count how many times the Oilers had options to move the puck with minimal to no pressure and held on to it and then got themselves in trouble by allowing the forecheck to get on top of them. Florida's forecheck isn't fast, but if you don't move it fast they cover all of your options. Do what we've been doing all playoffs and move the puck fast and their forecheck will struggle to establish anything.

 

[guymez]

OK, so they banged sticks...there was plenty of time to stop it. That took an eternity to get through.

Its very clear that there wasnt enough time. The puck went under Skinners stick immediately after Marchand's stick hit it.

 

[guymez]

Imo they need to make 2 adjustments. They need to recognize better on those contested blue line plays that Florida is trying to fly the zone with a guy and need to react either with the contested side D falling back, or the opposite side D back tracking quicker if he's going to pinch. It doesn't matter to me which option they choose. Keeping the zone is great, but the Oilers aren't really struggling with zone entries as a whole so not holding the line isn't the end of the world.

The other is the Oilers need to adapt to Florida pinching down and make better chip or reverse plays. Their biggest issue last game was just holding on to pucks for too long and making the Florida forecheck look better than it was. I can't count how many times the Oilers had options to move the puck with minimal to no pressure and held on to it and then got themselves in trouble by allowing the forecheck to get on top of them. Florida's forecheck isn't fast, but if you don't move it fast they cover all of your options. Do what we've been doing all playoffs and move the puck fast and their forecheck will struggle to establish anything.

Excellent post....couldnt agree more especially with the bolded.
I have no doubt that the coahcing staff has made the players aware of this and as you have said its just a question of recognition and execution.
Thats expecially true for Florida cheating for offence by trying to anticiapte Oiler turnovers inside the blueline. If they are aniticiapting an offensive possibilty then the Oilers D (who have the best position and perspective of the ongoing play in front of them) need to do the same and ensure that they are not gambling for maintaining possession in such a critical location on the ice.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Its very clear that there wasnt enough time. The puck went under Skinners stick immediately after Marchand's stick hit it.

It looks like it also spent a fair bit of time under his pad.

That was a completely stoppable non-shot.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Imo they need to make 2 adjustments. They need to recognize better on those contested blue line plays that Florida is trying to fly the zone with a guy and need to react either with the contested side D falling back, or the opposite side D back tracking quicker if he's going to pinch. It doesn't matter to me which option they choose. Keeping the zone is great, but the Oilers aren't really struggling with zone entries as a whole so not holding the line isn't the end of the world.

The other is the Oilers need to adapt to Florida pinching down and make better chip or reverse plays. Their biggest issue last game was just holding on to pucks for too long and making the Florida forecheck look better than it was. I can't count how many times the Oilers had options to move the puck with minimal to no pressure and held on to it and then got themselves in trouble by allowing the forecheck to get on top of them. Florida's forecheck isn't fast, but if you don't move it fast they cover all of your options. Do what we've been doing all playoffs and move the puck fast and their forecheck will struggle to establish anything.

Are you Bruce Curlock? lol great points, and Bruce makes those exact points in his post game tactical reviews. You can’t let Florida’s forecheck get set up, and the far D or high forward had to anticipate Florida cheating the zone when we’re on offense. In last game’s case that would be Leon, who did a decent enough job disrupting Marchand.

The downside to that for Florida is when that cheating/high pressure doesn’t work- it leads to the slot being wide open. They tried to do the same to Bouchard and RNH in game 1 which led to our OT goal. Interesting that both OT goals came off that high zone pressure play, once in our favour, once against. Something to watch as the series goes on.

 

[McFlyingV]

Excellent post....couldnt agree more.
I have no doubt that the coahcing staff has made the players aware of this and as ytou said its just a question of recognition and execution.

I think they'll make the adjustments. They've done it in the past when giving up too much in games. I'm not sure the general feel around here, but I will say watching both games live I never at any point felt the Oilers have been outmatched, quite the opposite really. They've felt like the better team for longer stretches in each game. Obviously their 2nd periods haven't been great, but overall they still feel like they're controlling the majority of the play, and Florida looks slow and tired in the 3rd and OT these past 2 games.

I still think the longer this goes the more it favours Edmonton. Edmonton's top 3 are all still young, and we don't really see McDavid drop off with big minutes. Florida on the other hand is riding a lot of minutes into their top 9 and top 4 D.

Oilers have 6 forwards over 20 mins per game, Florida has 9. Edmonton has 1 Dman over 30 minutes per game, Florida has 3. Over 27 minutes Edmonton has 2D, Florida has 4.

Even with the 2 day break. The physicality in this series is going to catch up with that many minutes allocated to fewer guys.

 

[McFlyingV]

Are you Bruce Curlock? lol great points, and Bruce makes those exact points in his post game tactical reviews. You can’t let Florida’s forecheck get set up, and the far D or high forward had to anticipate Florida cheating the zone when we’re on offense. In last game’s case that would be Leon, who did a decent enough job disrupting Marchand.

The downside to that for Florida is when that cheating/high pressure doesn’t work- it leads to the slot being wide open. They tried to do the same to Bouchard and RNH in game 1 which led to our OT goal. Interesting that both OT goals came off that high zone pressure play, once in our favour, once against. Something to watch as the series goes on.

Haha I'm not but honestly I should read his articles more because he does seem to give good analysis on things when I hear him on the radio. Just giving my opinion of the first 2 games watching them live, and I was actually sober enough to know what I was seeing since I had to work the following mornings.

You make a good point. The high forward can also make that read. On the OT goal rewatching it Ekholm is a bit too deep, and doesn't skate well enough to be the guy peeling back there so its either gotta be Drai or Bouch to fly the zone.

And good point on the game 1 winner. Marchand was late getting back because he was cheating for the shorthanded break.

 

[AlanHUK]

Imo they need to make 2 adjustments. They need to recognize better on those contested blue line plays that Florida is trying to fly the zone with a guy and need to react either with the contested side D falling back, or the opposite side D back tracking quicker if he's going to pinch. It doesn't matter to me which option they choose. Keeping the zone is great, but the Oilers aren't really struggling with zone entries as a whole so not holding the line isn't the end of the world.

The other is the Oilers need to adapt to Florida pinching down and make better chip or reverse plays. Their biggest issue last game was just holding on to pucks for too long and making the Florida forecheck look better than it was. I can't count how many times the Oilers had options to move the puck with minimal to no pressure and held on to it and then got themselves in trouble by allowing the forecheck to get on top of them. Florida's forecheck isn't fast, but if you don't move it fast they cover all of your options. Do what we've been doing all playoffs and move the puck fast and their forecheck will struggle to establish anything.

They crossed the line from calm to casual in their own zone it was ridiculously frustrating

I agree with you both these should be relatively simple things to fix and I have full faith they will do it

 

[McFlyingV]

It looks like it also spent a fair bit of time under his pad.

That was a completely stoppable non-shot.

It wasn't really under his pad. It hit the inside of the top of his right pad because it opened as he pushed across and didn't close in time. Puck was never actually under the pad, after it hits the pad its slowly sliding between his legs and into the net. At that point the only thing he could have done is spun his left leg to stop it with the backside of the leg, which is usually what a goalie will do it they feel it hit off the inside of the pad/knee, but I'm not sure the puck was even moving fast enough or hit him in the right place to feel that.

It's a goal that yes you'd like him to have but it's also a weird play. When a guy on a breakaway is being stick checked its very hard to predict what is going to happen. Skinner played it safe letting the puck come to him. What he could have done is make a play on the puck, or not drop the paddle to the ice (which I think was his biggest mistake). Making a poke at the puck is risky because it opens you up if the player manages to regain control of the puck. Dropping to the paddle was also not the best decision because he didn't get into a full paddle down position in time and its why his stick was so easily lifted.

Either way, it was the perfect storm of minor details aligning for that goal to go in. I wouldn't overanalyze it too much or be too critical of Stu for that. The goaltending as a whole was really good on both sides in this game. Sergei had some massive saves, but the Oilers had enough time and space on some of those looks to make him pay upstairs. Similarly, Stu had very little to no chance on the 2nd and 3rd goal.

 

[PitkanensGitch]

Watching that OT goal back it’s hard to fault Bouch. He’s getting torn to shreds a bit on the mains and social media.

our D NEVER leave the offensive zone when the puck is getting rimmed. We always let the D pinch trying to keep it in while our highest forward leaves the zone early, or starts to. That’s Draisaitl in this case.

Funky bounce off the stanchion coupled with Marchand flying the zone early lead to a disaster. Honestly they played it mostly correctly. Hard to anticipate Marchand doing that and a flukey bounce right to a Panther to spring him.

Draisaitl played it properly, Bouchard played it properly. Ekholm probably shouldn’t have been so deep like that but it is what it is.

Unlucky play that Drai made a great effort on. Honestly his backcheck should’ve been enough to prevent a goal there. He stopped Marchand from having a grade A, and it still goes in off a misplay by Skinner.

Don’t really fault anyone on the ice there except Skinner. However if they keep sending a player out of the zone that high and quick, our game plan might need to change. I can’t see us ever telling our D to abandon the pinch on the wall so it’s gonna be up to our 3F high to make sure he’s above whoever is flying out as a precaution.

 

[McShogun99]

I legit don’t understand how people blame Bouchard on the game winning goal. Oilers had full possession in the zone, Ekholm misses the net, and 99 times out of 100 that puck hugs the glass and Bouchard is in the perfect position to keep the puck in. He’s in his position at the right point. The puck bounced weird and died right on a Panthers stick, and Marchand was cheating for offense (as he does). On the backcheck, he sees that Drai is closer to Marchand and so he slows up to take any potential rebound. That goal was a bad bounce, but if anyone would get blamed, Ekholm can’t miss the net from there, and you’d like a save. But Bouch was positioned perfectly.

I also think if a Dman was the last man back instead of a forward then his instinct would have been to put his stick behind Skinner in case the puck sneaks thru. Draisaitl had his stick up thinking that Skinner had it when he was in a good position to prevent the puck from crossing the line.

 

[McShogun99]

Stecher in for Klingberg to help stabilize Nurse is such an obvious move but will never happen because Stecher the coaching staff thinks he's to small to handle the Panthers forwards.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Watching that OT goal back it’s hard to fault Bouch. He’s getting torn to shreds a bit on the mains and social media.

our D NEVER leave the offensive zone when the puck is getting rimmed. We always let the D pinch trying to keep it in while our highest forward leaves the zone early, or starts to. That’s Draisaitl in this case.

Funky bounce off the stanchion coupled with Marchand flying the zone early lead to a disaster. Honestly they played it mostly correctly. Hard to anticipate Marchand doing that and a flukey bounce right to a Panther to spring him.

Draisaitl played it properly, Bouchard played it properly. Ekholm probably shouldn’t have been so deep like that but it is what it is.

Unlucky play that Drai made a great effort on. Honestly his backcheck should’ve been enough to prevent a goal there. He stopped Marchand from having a grade A, and it still goes in off a misplay by Skinner.

Don’t really fault anyone on the ice there except Skinner. However if they keep sending a player out of the zone that high and quick, our game plan might need to change. I can’t see us ever telling our D to abandon the pinch on the wall so it’s gonna be up to our 3F high to make sure he’s above whoever is flying out as a precaution.

Bingo. Drai and Bouchard did what they needed to do. Skinner did not.

It wasn't really under his pad. It hit the inside of the top of his right pad because it opened as he pushed across and didn't close in time. Puck was never actually under the pad, after it hits the pad its slowly sliding between his legs and into the net. At that point the only thing he could have done is spun his left leg to stop it with the backside of the leg, which is usually what a goalie will do it they feel it hit off the inside of the pad/knee, but I'm not sure the puck was even moving fast enough or hit him in the right place to feel that.

It's a goal that yes you'd like him to have but it's also a weird play. When a guy on a breakaway is being stick checked its very hard to predict what is going to happen. Skinner played it safe letting the puck come to him. What he could have done is make a play on the puck, or not drop the paddle to the ice (which I think was his biggest mistake). Making a poke at the puck is risky because it opens you up if the player manages to regain control of the puck. Dropping to the paddle was also not the best decision because he didn't get into a full paddle down position in time and its why his stick was so easily lifted.

Either way, it was the perfect storm of minor details aligning for that goal to go in. I wouldn't overanalyze it too much or be too critical of Stu for that. The goaltending as a whole was really good on both sides in this game. Sergei had some massive saves, but the Oilers had enough time and space on some of those looks to make him pay upstairs. Similarly, Stu had very little to no chance on the 2nd and 3rd goal.

In regards to the bolded, and with all due respect here...this sounds like an over-analysis if I've ever seen one. Drai prevented Marchand from getting the shot off. Stu had the time and support from Drai, right there on his doorstep, to prevent that from going in. He had other options, as you mentioned, and it's obvious he picked the wrong one.

 

[McFlyingV]

Bingo. Drai and Bouchard did what they needed to do. Skinner did not.



In regards to the bolded, and with all due respect here...this sounds like an over-analysis if I've ever seen one. Drai prevented Marchand from getting the shot off. Stu had the time and support from Drai, right there on his doorstep, to prevent that from going in. He had other options, as you mentioned, and it's obvious he picked the wrong one.

My point was it doesn't need to be analyzed to the depth I went, and isn't really anything to dwell on. I hadn't even thought about it until reading all the posts in here. I've been annoyed with Stu in the past for terrible goaltending, but I felt nothing of that on this one. Drai played it excellently, and the way the goal went in is as much luck or a fluke as you'll get. Stu made some really good saves in overtime (as did Bobrovsky) and unfortunately the goal that goes in maybe 1 time out of 1000 ends up ending it.

 

[McFlyingV]

Stecher in for Klingberg to help stabilize Nurse is such an obvious move but will never happen because Stecher the coaching staff thinks he's to small to handle the Panthers forwards.

Klingberg at the end of the day brings more than Stetcher, but the Oilers D need to get back to moving the puck quicker. Stetcher in Klingberg out doesn't address the 4 LD problem (if it even is one, personally I don't think it is). The biggest issue is guys moving pucks too slow and holding on to it too long. Really putting any puck mover with Nurse should help him out. Whether thats Bouchard, Walman, Klingberg, or Stetcher. But if our D don't get back to playing to their strengths it won't matter and we'll see more periods like the 2nd periods of the first two games.

 

[MessierThanThou]

My point was it doesn't need to be analyzed to the depth I went, and isn't really anything to dwell on. I hadn't even thought about it until reading all the posts in here. I've been annoyed with Stu in the past for terrible goaltending, but I felt nothing of that on this one. Drai played it excellently, and the way the goal went in is as much luck or a fluke as you'll get. Stu made some really good saves in overtime (as did Bobrovsky) and unfortunately the goal that goes in maybe 1 time out of 1000 ends up ending it.

I'm sorry, but I find it really hard to buy that Stu isn't at fault, at all, for the goal and it's a "1 out of 1000" stroke of bad luck. This is getting ridiculous now.

 

[guymez]

It looks like it also spent a fair bit of time under his pad.

That was a completely stoppable non-shot.

Are you sure that your negative bias isnt affecting your interpretation?
It sure seems to be because that wierd and very odd play/unlucky was clearly not on Skinner.
That breakaway shouldnt even have happened and a poor read at the offensive blueline caused that.

We can just agree to disagree though.

 

[guymez]

Watching that OT goal back it’s hard to fault Bouch. He’s getting torn to shreds a bit on the mains and social media.

our D NEVER leave the offensive zone when the puck is getting rimmed. We always let the D pinch trying to keep it in while our highest forward leaves the zone early, or starts to. That’s Draisaitl in this case.

Funky bounce off the stanchion coupled with Marchand flying the zone early lead to a disaster. Honestly they played it mostly correctly. Hard to anticipate Marchand doing that and a flukey bounce right to a Panther to spring him.

Draisaitl played it properly, Bouchard played it properly. Ekholm probably shouldn’t have been so deep like that but it is what it is.

Unlucky play that Drai made a great effort on. Honestly his backcheck should’ve been enough to prevent a goal there. He stopped Marchand from having a grade A, and it still goes in off a misplay by Skinner.

Don’t really fault anyone on the ice there except Skinner. However if they keep sending a player out of the zone that high and quick, our game plan might need to change. I can’t see us ever telling our D to abandon the pinch on the wall so it’s gonna be up to our 3F high to make sure he’s above whoever is flying out as a precaution.

That is absolutely on Bouchard.
100%
There are no black and white scenarios about how the D is to respond to maintain containment.
Bouchard has to have better situational awarenees there. Full stop.

He isnt alone either. The skaters need to improve their reads because the amount of breakaways the team gave up (due to not recognizoing Floridas anticiapting forwards) simply cant continue.
That loss was completely on the poor team defence.

 

[PitkanensGitch]

That is absolutely on Bouchard.
100%
There are no black and white scenarios about how the D is to respond to maintain containment.
Bouchard has to have better situational awarenees there. Full stop.

He isnt alone either. The skaters need to improve their reads because the amount of breakaways the team gave up (due to not recognizoing Floridas anticiapting forwards) simply cant continue.
That loss was completely on the poor team defence.

I have a feeling it’s on the 3F which is Draisaitl, but he did his job.

Our D get to play pinch along the boards because our high forward is responsible for anyone flying the zone during a rim / quick out.

Draisaitl did his job properly. You have to think about it the opposite way. If Florida had a forward fly the zone every single time, our D would never be there to pinch or keep sustained offensive pressure. We always float a forward high for this reason.

Very unlucky bounce off the stanchion.

 

[guymez]

I have a feeling it’s on the 3F which is Draisaitl, but he did his job.

Our D get to play pinch along the boards because our high forward is responsible for anyone flying the zone during a rim / quick out.

Draisaitl did his job properly. You have to think about it the opposite way. If Florida had a forward fly the zone every single time, our D would never be there to pinch or keep sustained offensive pressure. We always float a forward high for this reason.

Very unlucky bounce off the stanchion.

The thing is though the D have to read the situation. They cant get locked into one specific mindset and follow through with that regardless of the situation.

Bouchard has to realize that when he spots Marchand fleeing their D zone that he cant risk missing the puck along the wall. He should have turned and started skating towards his own zone.

So thats a poor read on his part because the risk he took (especially at that time of the game) was unnecessary.
The risk/reward was very high. Too high.
There was no urgency for him to take that risk at that time.

For example...if its an empty net scenario then thats different...in that game scenario its appropriate to risk defence for offence.

 

[PitkanensGitch]

The thing is though the D have to read the situation. They cant get locked into one specific mindset and follow through with that regardless of the situation.

Bouchard has to realize that when he spots Marchand fleeing their D zone that he cant risk missing the puck along the wall.

So thats a poor read on his part because the risk he took (especially at that time of the game) was unnecessary. the risk/reward was very high. Too high.
There was no urgency for him to take that risk at that time.

For example...if its an empty next scenario then thats different...in that game scenario its appropriate to risk defence for offence.

Re: the bolded — I believe there is an understanding in their system that our 3F is responsible for their 1F coming out of the defensive zone, in this case Draisaitl responsible for Marchand.

It’s a very simple system because our high forward can easily focus on it while our defenceman can focus on clogging up the wall to maintain pressure. We see this constantly where our D man gets a puck off the wall in the offensive zone and have our open high forward to give it to. See it a lot with 29 and 97 out there.

We play a pretty simple system. Again, our entire offensive pressure would be diminished if the defenceman was responsible for a forward randomly fleeing the zone as we would never have someone along the boards to clog it up. They’d send a forward out every time and have an essentially free zone exit up that wall. This is how the game is played.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Are you sure that your negative bias isnt affecting your interpretation?
It sure seems to be because that wierd and very odd play/unlucky was clearly not on Skinner.
That breakaway shouldnt even have happened and a poor read at the offensive blueline caused that.

We can just agree to disagree though.

You mean the same negative bias that made me defend him after this year’s Game 5 against Dallas where I pointed out that his poor save percentage was misleading based on his GSAx and what I saw from him? Or the same negative bias that made me say he outplayed Bob in game one? When he’s good I say it and I’m more than happy to do so because it likely means we won.

 

[PitkanensGitch]

Have we even lost a game where Skinner had a higher SV% than the other goalie? Surely we’re undefeated.

 

[guymez]

Re: the bolded — I believe there is an understanding in their system that our 3F is responsible for their 1F coming out of the defensive zone, in this case Draisaitl responsible for Marchand.

It’s a very simple system because our high forward can easily focus on it while our defenceman can focus on clogging up the wall to maintain pressure. We see this constantly where our D man gets a puck off the wall in the offensive zone and have our open high forward to give it to. See it a lot with 29 and 97 out there.

We play a pretty simple system. Again, our entire offensive pressure would be diminished if the defenceman was responsible for a forward randomly fleeing the zone as we would never have someone along the boards to clog it up. They’d send a forward out every time and have an essentially free zone exit up that wall. This is how the game is played.

Again though...Bouchard has eyes on 2 things...the missed shot and the fleeing Boston forward.
He also has the max amount of time to react appropriately to a situation which had danger written all over it.
He has to be dynamic enough in that situation to realize he has to readjust.
He didnt do that at all.

Draisaitl has a repsonsibility too but this particular situation doesnt begin and end with him.

 

[guymez]

You mean the same negative bias that made me defend him after this year’s Game 5 against Dallas where I pointed out that his poor save percentage was misleading based on his GSAx and what I saw from him? Or the same negative bias that made me say he outplayed Bob in game one? When he’s good I say it and I’m more than happy to do so because it likely means we won.

Maybe you have defended him in the past but in this situation the analysis has to be much more expansive than the way you presented it.
The goal is what it is (very unlucky with Marchands fanning and a defensive breakdown to start it) and picking low hanging fruit (ie,...its Skinner fault) is a very low resolution perspective.