We have not won a finals game against Florida where Skinner was negative in GSAx, and we have not lost a game where he was positive. This is using moneypucks GSAx. We had a 60% chance to win, and Skinner had a -0.84 GSAx and Bob had a +1.37. In game 1 the Oilers had a 62% change to win, Skinner had a +0.71 GSAx and Bob had a +0.65.
Basically the Oilers played pretty much the same and Skinner had a slightly off game, largely coming down to the winning goal. Whereas in game 1, Bob let in a somewhat weak goal against Arvidsson.
This series is going to come down to goaltending, full stop. This shouldn't be surprising to anybody.