Prospect Info: Welcome to Montréal, Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1st round pick, 3OA 2018 - signed ELC)
- Thread starter De Montreal
- Start date
- Status
The Great Weal
Phil's Pizza
- Jan 15, 2015
- 55,459
- 71,351
People would say "lol, Habs pass on a big talented center for another winger"
le_sean
Registered User
- Oct 21, 2006
- 42,102
- 45,388
Clearly a high premium was placed on centres in this draft. Hayton at 5. Dellandrea at 13. Foudy at 18. O’Brien at 19. Those were reaches.
groovejuice
Without deviation progress is not possible
Some people got needlessly emotional and hostile. It's funny to see grown men get all flustered and emotional over an 18 year old they've never met thoughBut it's also sad haha.
And other people here get confrontational and judgemental.
It's best to stick to hockey and agree to disagree lest we make fools of ourselves.
Personally I get excited about high picks when we get them and tend to be patient while we watch them develop. There are very few players whose careers exactly correspond with their draft position.
If scouts see him as a 1C then his upside is higher than anyone else 3-10, unless one of them turns out a superstar or something.
admiralcadillac
Registered User
- Oct 22, 2017
- 7,706
- 7,034
Almost inarguably bigger reaches than Kotkaniemi.
Great pick, I didn't want Zadina at all. Joël Bouchard is now here to coach our prospect. what a time to be alive.
Looking back at the few picks that came after O'Brien, he wasn't that big of reach. He did go earlier than I initially expected. When Dellandrea went 13 though I knew he wouldn't last past 20.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Contain your negativity? Kotkaniemi was a good pick for us. The kid has the tools you look for in a top 2 center. There is no over excitement. It just simply a very good draft pick for us
Projecting Jesperi.
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
This is a table of some of the recent Liiga draftees even strength production rates in their draft and post draft years. All but one player progressed. The average progression was +0.5802 EVP/60. Assuming this progression at even strength for Jesperi, we should expect even strength production of 2.4934 EVP/60. Assuming 16 minutes of even strength TOI and 45 games played (time missed for the U20 4 nations, camp, and WJC) we should expect 30 EVP from him next year (up from 25 this year).
Where things get a little wild is on the powerplay. This is the largest source of variance in the projection, since 5v4 P/60 of 9.0+ are not unheard of, while Jesperi actually produced about 2.3 5V4 P/60 last year. On 100 minutes of PP time in 45 games, that can produce a difference of 11 points: put simply, it can create the difference between anywhere from a bit of a disappointment to one of the most valuable center prospects in the game. If he sees no jump in PP production from his EV projection we can expect 35 points in 45 games assuming 2.5 minutes of PP time per game (up from 1.75 this year). If he produces at a rate of 5 5v4 P/60? 40 points in 45 games. If he produces as Vesalainen did this year on the PP? 48 points in 45 games.
| D EVP/60 | D+1 EVP/60 | Delta | |
| A. Saarela | 1.0296 | 1.8785 | 0.8489 |
| R. Hintz | 2.2069 | 2.437 | 0.2301 |
| J. Tammela | 0.688 | 1.6665 | 0.9785 |
| S. Aho | 1.854 | 2.5393 | 0.6853 |
| M. Heiskanen | 0.7244 | 1.6404 | 0.916 |
| U. Vaakanainen | 0.6547 | 0.7877 | 0.133 |
| E. Luostarinen | 1.309 | 0.9137 | -0.3953 |
| K. Vesalainen | 0.4845 | 1.7296 | 1.2451 |
| avg | 1.1188875 | 1.6990875 | 0.5802 |
This is a table of some of the recent Liiga draftees even strength production rates in their draft and post draft years. All but one player progressed. The average progression was +0.5802 EVP/60. Assuming this progression at even strength for Jesperi, we should expect even strength production of 2.4934 EVP/60. Assuming 16 minutes of even strength TOI and 45 games played (time missed for the U20 4 nations, camp, and WJC) we should expect 30 EVP from him next year (up from 25 this year).
Where things get a little wild is on the powerplay. This is the largest source of variance in the projection, since 5v4 P/60 of 9.0+ are not unheard of, while Jesperi actually produced about 2.3 5V4 P/60 last year. On 100 minutes of PP time in 45 games, that can produce a difference of 11 points: put simply, it can create the difference between anywhere from a bit of a disappointment to one of the most valuable center prospects in the game. If he sees no jump in PP production from his EV projection we can expect 35 points in 45 games assuming 2.5 minutes of PP time per game (up from 1.75 this year). If he produces at a rate of 5 5v4 P/60? 40 points in 45 games. If he produces as Vesalainen did this year on the PP? 48 points in 45 games.
This sure seems like useless projecting to me. Small sample size and high variance within the data. It seems to be the kind of projection you spew out for the sake of spewing out a projection. I appreciate the effort you put in this but I don’t see the value in this information. I could just have easily said: Kotkaniemi should improve if his minutes increase but he might not and that kinda sums up what your data is saying.
If you want to use advanced stats for projecting, you’d need a larger sample size, and you’d need to test the rigidity of the claims being made. How many players from the larger sample size progress in the way that you claim? If that number is very high than the data can be used to project future growth in players. Otherwise, the claim becomes baseless.
Again.. I appreciate the effort but I feel this data is mostly noise to create a conversation that suits some people’s needs.
It'll be a very good draft pick as long as he outplays Zadina and actually becomes a top center in NHL.
Nothing negative about my post. But hey, sensitive Habs board...
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Well, you said I was too excited. I replied with an equal comment so go figure. When you going to learn?
I know Zadina very well and I think he will score 30 goal seasons. However, his value is on the PP with his quick release and hunger to score. I will say his skating needs to improve though as he is not as good as a skater as Hischier. As far as Kotkaniemi, his base is a #2 center. He has to fall off a cliff if he ends up worse than that. I see him as a top 2 center who has a big frame and knows how to play the center position at both ends of the ice. We got a good one and he will only develop further. I love goal scoring centers with size and his skating is not bad at all. Same concerns that were said towards Kopitar and Drai. He is not a soft center type and he knows how to play and score goals.
I see these two neck and neck moving forward but long term, Kotkaniemi will have more value. We have to remember there is 8 or 9 months difference is development time between the two. Zadina will make the NHL faster but Kotkaniemi will catch and likely pass him by age 22 or 23. Kotkaniemi had an injury that affected his development too. If this kid develops better skating and fills into his frame, he is going to be the real deal.
He likes to think he models his game like Barkov. And he has the size and skill set to reach that potential IMO.
Last edited:
That's not at all what the data is saying, actually. His icetime will increase, but it's actually surprising that you managed to miss the point that badly: the data is talking about what he'll do with the ice-time he's given, not that he'll produce more with more ice-time (duh). The data is a rate, and thus represents an average taken over many samples to begin with. Second, to establish the change in rate, you need not only 18 year olds who are playing in Liiga, they need to have played their 17 year old season in Liiga as well. That means there just aren't that many samples. That doesn't mean you can't do any inference, though.
A couple notes: not all inference tasks are the same. I'm not training a convolutive deep neural network to classify images, I'm estimating a single real valued parameter from a set of data in which almost everyone is between 0 and 1. There's an important concept to understand about data analysis before you go whipping your cock out over sample size: dimensionality. If your data exists in a small subset of all possible data, you can do surprising things with it. For example, there's such a thing as ''1 bit'' inference. In this case, we have almost the smallest imaginable dimensionality (a point). That means the average should converge very quickly and that the projected error is, moreover, relatively small. Let's say that Jesperi progresses only as much as Roope Hintz (almost no progression at all). His EVP estimate becomes 26. If he progresses as much as Tammela (one of the largest progressions) it becomes 34. Whooooaaaa bro I was so far off I should've used more samples bro! What would be different if I had a thousand samples? Are you saying that with more samples, I could totally eliminate being a handful of points off either way?
These are just the comparables that exist. It's worth noting that, of the 8 comparables that I found, all except for one progressed between seasons, and 5 recent examples exceeded the rate that I proposed for Jesperi. Moreover, the actual projected rate for Jesperi isn't wildly out of proportion. I can find many examples of players who produced at that rate at even strength this year. And finally, there's a physical explanation for the data. 18 year old players in their second year do better than 17 year old players in their first year because of f***ing course they do.
Last edited:
You used to tell me the same thing about this management...Negative this negative that, always missing the damn freaking point. You are finally catching on a bit, but as usual, you're sensitive.
I told you to contain your excitement a bit because much needs to happen before Kotka and Poe become legit top 2 centers. It was a light comment, nothing to be taken literal. Claim Kotka to be the next Crosby for all I care man, it's all good.
I guess a bit of rationale was too much to ask.
Not sure why you're speaking in such a definitive tone. Bottom line is you have no idea how either Zadina and Kotkaniemi (and Tkachuk or others in the top 10) will develop over the next few years.
If all goes well, Kotka should become a top 2 center. That's great. Let's leave it at that and see what happens over next years.
Last edited:
le_sean
Registered User
- Oct 21, 2006
- 42,102
- 45,388
Yeah it’s weird. As soon as Hayton goes 5, is any centre a reach after that? Us fans might think so, but the 31 teams seem to have a different ranking that propels centres, and they have to draft within those parameters.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Aren't you tried of living in the past? You started the tone buddy by saying I was too exited. And now you are surprised you get the back lash same type of comments. So if you want to have a nice conversation, don't start it like you did and we will be fine. However, I am not holding my breath that you will come around. So don't be upset with my tone when I reply to your style of posting towards me. Like I said, when are you going to learn.
"If all goes well" Kotkaniemi will be a top 2 center. Well most predictions are he is a top 2 center with #1C upside and I agree with this. Are there any guarantees in life? No. Yakupov after all busted as a #1 OA pick. Habs got a good center prospect. Kotkaniemi and Poehling are two very good options at center for us moving forward. Not sure why you had to comment about me being too excited.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
So much for drafting according to "BPA" rankings eh. BPA don't exist... Each team has their own targets. Drafting according to the "popular" rankings done by other people is stupid. Position of need is always taken in consideration and Center has lots of value. They are just simply hard to acquire if you don't draft them.
I've often told you this, you take things way too literally. As I said, shout as loud as you want that Kotka is the next Crosby for all I care.
It was a light comment saying, maybe better not to get overly excited about prospects that are 2-4 years away from the NHL. But again, if your response to this is "Boooooooo! Screw you and your negativity" then alright, go ahead and prop him up all you want.
Poe and Kotka are interesting prospects. That's all they are at this point.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I take everything you say Literally. Not so much with others who avoid telling me that I am "too excited"
Deebs
Without you, everything falls apart
- Feb 5, 2014
- 17,460
- 14,444
Heaven forbid fans get excited about new players....how dare they!!!
Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
Kotkaniemi is the best center prospect in this draft, hes right along the lines of the ones drafted last year and the year before, haven't had anything close to that at C since Galchenyuk, there is a reason were excited.
The Great Weal
Phil's Pizza
- Jan 15, 2015
- 55,459
- 71,351
And Bergevin won't be here to trade him for a winger with 9 goals where half of them are empty netters.
- Status
Ad
Latest posts
-
Salary Cap: Pens '24-'25 Salary Thread: The Crosbicles Volume XIX- Latest: Empoleon8771
