This contract runs through 2026-27. Our only other current commitments past next year are Hamilton at $9 million, Hughes $8 million, Hischier $7.25, Mercer $900k, and Brendan Smith just signed at 1.1, as well as other ELCs. Let's say we sign Bratt to a max term deal. Let's estimate high and say he gets the Thomas contract - 8 years, $8 million. We also need to sign Boqvist, Wood, Vanecek, Thompson, and Zetterlund. I forget the exact parameters of what Wood can get in ARB, but that's a 1 year commitment so it's basically meaningless. Boqvist I can see getting $1.5x2 as a player with a decent number of games played at this point. Zetterlund probably more like $1x2, Thompson probably less than that. Let's say Vanecek gets $2.5x2. Let's jump ahead to next offseason.
2023-24
Using our projections from above, we have $39,250,000 committed. We can probably safely assume Foote and Holtz make the team. They will still be on ELCs this year making less than $900k. Other forwards we have to re-sign are Sharangovich, Bastian, McLeod, Tatar, Johnsson, Haula, Wood. Let's say we keep Haula of the 3 UFAs and he get's $2x2 or something. Sharangovich, let's say he plays mostly on Jack's wing again this year and hits 30 goals. We can sign him to a 5 year deal that takes him through 27-28, past when Palat's contract will be gone. Let's say he gets $5.5 million. McLeod and Bastian are probably either non-tendered or sign for around $1 million. Wood is probably gone either because he came back and performed well enough to earn a bigger contract than I want to give him, or he fizzles.
On D, We expect Nemec and Luke will both begin playing on their ELCs this year and expect both to play for NJ. We have Severson, Graves Seigenthaler, Ty smith, and Bahl on expiring contracts. I really don't see a world where Ty Smith fits with us long term so let's assume he's traded for futures or something. Graves walks, Let's say Seigs gets the same defensive D contract that everyone got this offseason of something like 4x$4.25. Let's say Bahl gets 2x$1.2. I think the right move is to keep Severson. Let's say he gets 6x$7.
Impossible to guess what goalie looks like, so I'm just going to budget $5 million each year for that moving forward.
Total commitments: $67,139,000
2024-25
Projections from above, we have about $64,289,000 committed. after B. Smith, Mercer, and Foote all expire. It's tough to project Mercer, but let's assume we sign him to a bridge deal at a $5 aav. Foote maybe costs $2 million unless he is much better than I think he is. ELC D-man +850k. Holtz, again tough to predict but let's say he is good and we want to sign him long-term for $8 million aav.
Total commitments: $72,139.00
2025-26
Using our projections and continuing to just lump goaltending as $5 million, Zetterlund, Boqvist, and Thompson all need to be reupped. We had their contracts pegged at about $3.25 million before, so we have just under $70 million committed. Holtz is also off his ELC going into this year and will likely cost a lot unless he's a bust. At this point I'm less interested in projecting specific contracts as who the hell knows what these guys will be 3 more seasons from now. Point being that this is the year the cap is projected to jump big time and we're still nowhere near it.
2026-27
Now things get dicey as Palat will certainly not be worth his contract, Holtz may be much, much more expensive, and Nemec and Luke are coming off their ELC. At this point we will probably need to dump Palat and one of Severson or Hamilton to re-sign the younger D. But again, the cap should be much higher by this point and the cost to move one year of a $6 million contract won't be a lot. Or LTIR, or whatever. It's not going to be an issue until his last year and then we can just get rid of it. Hamilton will probably be the more costly contract to move.
Again, this isn't a good contract and we can't go around signing more of them every year, but we can basically re-sign every significant piece in our organization and still carry it for 4 of the 5 years. It doesn't matter if you signed Gaudreau, Palat, or whoever, it was always going to be a breeze up until Luke and Nemec come off their ELCs. That's the point where keeping whoever we actually want to keep gets tricky. Before then, we can still add one or more significant players and still keep the ones that are worth it. We will have a number of expendable prospects to trade for additional depth or future picks to replenish as our roster ages and gets more expensive. this contract is a non issue for 4 of the 5 years it exists, and then the 5th year the cap could be over $90 million.
