NFL GDT: Week 5: Forever Rivals

  • PLEASE check any bookmark on all devices. IF you see a link pointing to mandatory.com DELETE it Please use this URL https://forums.hfboards.com/

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
191,511
42,733
It's October, and it's Week 5. If your team had a poor start, it's officially late early, and yet it seems early to have only 1 winless team and only 2 undefeated teams.

The byes have begin, which means there's less games, and your fantasy benches now need to help you deliver. Unless you drafted Christian McCaffrey 1st overall, then its been like that all season. That also means a balanced Red Zone: 6 early games, and 4 late games.

Thursday Night Football: Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

As expected, the Buccaneers proved why they should've been favored against the Eagles last week, but they will enter division play for the first time, as the Atlanta Falcons are given yet another prime time game, and are even favored here. The Falcons scored 26 points last week against the Saints without the benefit of an offensive touchdown in a last-second win.

Sunday Morning: NY Jets vs. Minnesota, NFL Network

Our second international game, and first Europe game this season, the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings have Sam Darnold against another former team already, this one was a bit more of a maligned experience for him with the Jets. Aaron Rodgers & Co. failed to score a touchdown, and a missed field goal sunk them to 2-2.

MAPS:

IMG_7427.jpeg


Buffalo @ Houston - finally the Stefon Diggs revenge game. We are still waiting for Houston to look like they're put together. Bills were due to get run over, and that's exactly what Derrick Henry did last week. The Ravens gave Buffalo their first regular season loss by more than 6 points in nearly 3 years.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati - speaking of the Ravens, they go to Cincinnati. Both teams are playing the first division game, and the Ravens have been kind of a problem for Joe Burrow & Co. The Bengals offense looks like it's clicking, but their defense hasn't really delivered. They finally got a win last week, but this is an important one, because with a Bengals win, both teams will be 2-3. However, the Ravens are favor on the road.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville - Joe Flacco lives again after replacing an injured Anthony Richardson last week, which looks like it may be a continuing theme. Joe Flacco is a very smart man. The Jaguars are favored in this one despite being 0-4, and another loss could free up Doug Pederson's immediate schedule.


IMG_7428.jpeg


Green Bay @ LA Rams - gets Jim Nantz and Tony Romo again. Nantz lives in San Diego, so I bet he appreciates it. Jordan Love is back, but it took the Packers a while to get moving last week vs. the Vikings. The Rams predictably had a let down in Chicago. The Packers are favored, as the Rams still are bludgeoned with injuries, but the Packers rookie kicker looks like he keeps things interesting. Xavier McKinney has an interception in all 4 games for the Packers.

NY Giants @ Seattle - the Seahawks may have a short week, but the Giants are bad at scoring points. Should be able to get right after their first loss.

IMG_7429.jpeg


This is a pretty shitty Fox lineup

Cleveland @ Washington - the Browns defense has generally been up to the task this season, despite poor offense once again. With what we've seen from Jayden Daniels, not sure how much they're looking forward to playing WFT, who scored 42 points for the first time in 8 years last week. Enough here that it's the game that will be in the most early markets for the Fox single.

Carolina @ Chicago - Andy Dalton is making enough rounds that he can play against multiple former teams in the same season, but he left a lot less gusto in Chicago than he did in Cincinnati. Chicago's offense has still been sluggish behind Caleb Williams, and that's ok. A rookie QB who was picked first overall doesn't have to blow the doors off teams in his first year, just as long as the guy who was picked second doesn't make them too nervous.

Both teams catching strays on that one.

Miami @ New England - The Dolphins are losing bodies, and don't have many answers. Gonna be looking at a huge hole if they lose to the Patriots

Arizona @ San Francisco - Kevin Burkhardt and Tom Brady get this one. The Cardinals looked like they could take a step after their first two weeks, but they've lost at home to Detroit and Washington, and now they gotta to go Santa Clara and play the 49ers, who took care of business vs, the Patriots last week. Cardinals need to hope the 49ers are looking ahead to a Thursday date with Seattle. No sign of Christian McCaffrey.

Las Vegas @ Denver - Almost forgot to add this, not that I've felt obligated to mention every game. It seems strange to think both teams are 2-2 because they both almost definitely stink. Broncos are slight favorites.

SUNDAY NIGHT - It's the NFL's version of Celtics/Lakers, a rare interconference matchup that feels like a rivalry given the history and national appeal, when the Dallas Cowboys visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. However, the Steelers are the Cowboys actual oldest foe. When the Cowboys entered the league in 1960 (which is strange to think about given how big the Cowboys are and how long the NFL has been a thing), their first game was against the Steelers (Steelers won 35-28 at the Cotton Bowl). And this was before there was an 'NFC East,' they were in opposite divisions in the 13-team NFL that season. Cowboys lead the series all-time 17-16.

The Steelers suffered their first lost last week to *checks notes* Joe Flacco and the Indianapolis Colts. However, they are favored (-2.5) against the Cowboys who have suffered injures on defense to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, but had the half bye after playing Thursday.

MONDAY NIGHT - Thankfully, we're back to just one MNF game this week. Unfortunately, one of the quarterbacks in that one game is going to be Derek Carr. The shine is off the New Orleans Saints' offense after the first two weeks. Their defense has given up 24 points in the past 2 weeks and lost both. Now, they're rumored to be in on Davante Adams to reunite him with Carr. Oh, look, it's the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs on the other side, who Carr is 3-18 against in his career. This will only be the 6th time the two teams will meet in Kansas City.
 
  • Like
Reactions: QueerGirrl

John Price

Gang Gang
Sep 19, 2008
381,962
29,099

analytics like dvoa are for nerds

"Stats are numbers. What I care about is the football. Where does it go? Does it go in the end zone? Do we get points? Points are also numbers, but points determine games and wins and losses. Stats are numbers, numbers are nerds, nerds are losers, therefore stats are losers," Jason said.

"All we care about is visually, does that ball go into that territory right there we got points? Does that ball go through those uprights? When we’re on defense, does the ball go that way or does it stay where it’s at? That’s all I care about. I don’t care about the numbers, numbers are for the analytics people, and the pencil pushers, and the zit faces, and the four eyes," Jason added.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
191,511
42,733
Football has been using analytics and advanced stats for at least 20 years longer than anyone who makes their living analyzing it realizes
 
  • Like
Reactions: Troy McClure

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
28,335
10,909
Football has been using analytics and advanced stats for at least 20 years longer than anyone who makes their living analyzing it realizes
All true. But teams need to consider the flow of the game. If it’s a tight close game with fewer points (each team under 20) you should lean towards kicking the FG va go for it on 4th and 3. If it’s a shootout game then you can’t win kicking FG so need to go for it to get a TD on the drive.

Analytics alone shouldn’t determine the decision.
 
  • Like
Reactions: John Price

Romang67

BitterSwede
Jan 2, 2011
30,331
23,150
Evanston, IL
All true. But teams need to consider the flow of the game. If it’s a tight close game with fewer points (each team under 20) you should lean towards kicking the FG va go for it on 4th and 3. If it’s a shootout game then you can’t win kicking FG so need to go for it to get a TD on the drive.

Analytics alone shouldn’t determine the decision.
Counterpoint: if the analysts are any good at their jobs, that prior should be considered in their analysis.:dunno:
 
  • Like
Reactions: LT

Troy McClure

Suter will never be scratched
Mar 12, 2002
48,579
16,583
South of Heaven
All true. But teams need to consider the flow of the game. If it’s a tight close game with fewer points (each team under 20) you should lean towards kicking the FG va go for it on 4th and 3. If it’s a shootout game then you can’t win kicking FG so need to go for it to get a TD on the drive.

Analytics alone shouldn’t determine the decision.
Analytics work to help coaches make informed decisions not to dictate decisions.

For example, we spent most of the existence of the NFL watching coaches punt on 4th and 1 because they were terrified of media reaction should they go for it and fail. Analytics came along to break coaches of this fear.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad