NFL GDT: Week 16: Mayfields of Gold

[BB88]

vikings would be smart to shop mccarthy. there are a number of awful teams desperate for a franchise QB and are going to miss out on ward/sanders who would give up a lot for him

But is it also smart to give a massive contract ti Darnolds?

 

[Fish on The Sand]

How many quality starters are there in the NFL?
NFC:
Top: Stafford, Kyler (still inconsistent), Goff, Love, Dak, Hurts, Daniels
Mid: Baker, Carr, Geno, Purdy, Darnold, Cousins (til the last 6 weeks)
Bottom: D. Jones,
Unproven: Caleb, Young,

AFC:
Top: Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Jackson, Allen
MId: Nix, R. Wilson, Lawrence, Stroud (great rookie year/average sophomore), Tua, Rodgers,
Bottom: Minschew, Watson,
Unproven: Levis, Richardson, Maye

Total:
Top - 12
Mid - 12 (though I think Stroud will move up still to Top. No issues if anyone wants to move Purdy up either.)
Bottom - 3, pretty clear cut that is what they are
Unproven - 5 (I don't think from what we have seen Levis or Richardson will get to mid). Might need to take a step back like Geno, Darnold did with the right coaching staff. Young is borderline due to his size. I think Maye will be able to get to mid. Caleb may be like Kyler and have consistency issues.

I think we can put Levis firmly in the bottom tier

 

[GKJ]

What a display the Saints put forward. Now all the beats are like ‘hmm, this team may actually be bad’ after trying to convince themselves that Spencer Rattler has Something. Of course it took them not having Kamara in the lineup to figure it out, not sure what they expected after losing all their top skill guys. I mean, they’re starting guys who were on the practice squad at WR. Rattler himself still being leading rusher is pathetic though.

 

[JimmyApples]

The Vikings being a wild card team and not getting a home playoff game, despite being tied for the best record in the conference; is crazy.

Better than the Eagles, Rams and Buccs, yet don’t get a home playoff game. Rough.

 

[hatterson]

So the straight forward scenarios for the AFC:

KC gets #1 seed by winning at least 1 of their remaining games (@pit, @Den) or if Buffalo loses one of their remaining 2 (vs NYJ, @NE)
Buffalo gets the #1 seed by winning out and KC losing out.

Buffalo gets at least the 2 seed if they get at least 1 win or if both Pittsburgh (vs KC, vs CIN) and Baltimore (@HOU, vs CLE) lose a game.

Steelers win the division if they have the same or better record than Baltimore over the last 2 games.

Houston would lock into the 4 seed if they lose to Baltimore. If Houston beats Baltimore they would have the tiebreaker over them and if they can math Pittsburgh's record overall they'd have the tiebreaker over them too so if they can match records with the winner of the AFC north, they'd be the 3 seed.

No matter what happens this week the AFC playoff picture won't be fully settled in terms of standings, but if Denver beats Cincy and the Chargers beat the Pats, the actual participants will be locked in with just seeding to play for in week 18.


In the NFC you could have a team with a 12-5 record be the 7 seed if the Commies win their last 2.

Washington can finish anywhere from the 2 seed (win out and Philly loses out) to missing the playoffs (lose out and Bucs and Falcons win out).
Seattle, with their 8-7 record, could still snag the 3 seed.

If both the Lions and the Vikings win this week, their week 18 matchup would be for the #1 seed and bye with the loser dropping to the 5 seed.

 

[StreetHawk]

I think we can put Levis firmly in the bottom tier

Of the 5 unprovens, I'd be think Levis is going to land in the bottom tier. He was a higher pick than Ridder, but this is year 2 for Levis but in a new system and he had the chance to go out and win the job. Just made too many stupid mistakes trying to do too much.

He is basically the bottom end of his comp which I thought was Wentz post Seattle PO game. Just turned it over way too much.

Young has looked better after his benching. Still not a big believer in him.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

There’s are very big differences here in that McCarthy was never in the game here. Carson Wentz got hurt with a month to play in the season.

The Eagles also went about that under the auspices that they won the Super Bowl with Carson Wentz. Yes, Nick Foles won the game on the field, but was Wentz was 11-2, may have been MVP had he not been hurt. Of course, the dynamics of that didn’t make sense, and it became that it did work.

Credentials or even statistics of a guy on a rookie contract really don't matter.
It still doesn't really change the behavior of teams. Unless the rookie is utterly dogging it, such as Josh Rosen, they're putting the rookie out there at some point. When the Ravens draft Lamar, it was over for Flacco, and it was only a matter of when. Alex Smith was done when Mahomes was drafted, but was able to stay for a year. When Daniel Jones was drafted, Eli was going to be ended at some point. Jalen Hurts might have been a tentative project pick at first, but with Wentz stagnating brutally( which is worse imo than just being "unknown to outsiders but not the coaches" like JJ McCarthy), they moved to install him and force Wentz out.

Part of the reason the rookie is favored so much might be business rather than objectively winning another Super Bowl. The league wants new QBs from college to be assured they will get an optimal opportunity to get the next contract and that going to a tanking team is still "worth it". This game pays much worse than other major professional sports leagues, and has a shorter span to make an impact, so they have to make football still attractive to prospects. "We'll make sure you get to play. We'll make sure you get a chance to get paid. We'll even pay if you're not all the way at the top."

The only guy who was able to resist the chopping for more than one year was Aaron Rodgers, but once the Packer could cut ties, they did.