Buffalo Bills Week 15: New England (3-11) at Buffalo (11-3), 12/22, 4:25 PM (flexed), CBS

[Der Jaeger]

Hollins has built up long speed and can threaten a defense deep. Whether he gets the ball is somewhat irrelevant. With MVS able to go deep, it really frees up Kincaid and Shakir. I think he's a tad overlooked for his contributions in that area.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Hollins has built up long speed and can threaten a defense deep. Whether he gets the ball is somewhat irrelevant. With MVS able to go deep, it really frees up Kincaid and Shakir. I think he's a tad overlooked for his contributions in that area.

Ravens have given up the most plays over 20 yds this season so far (16). Something to keep and eye on.

 

[Sabreality]

I'm just happy Beane took my advice in regards to signing Mack this offseason

But really, the guy is a perfect Davis replacement for what Brady wants to do in this offense, for like a 1/10th of the cost.

It was both funny and a bit sad when a certain sect of the fanbase had a mini-meltdown when the depth chart was released with Mack ahead of Coleman (as he should be). Too many counting stat video game/fantasy types didn't understand his value & role. Guy's a gem.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839353651493806496

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839355508148649990

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839355858301714543

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839366695582056794

 

[ValJamesDuex]

70% chance of rain in Baltimore Sunday (Helene remnants). It's early and things can change of course but time to watch those spaghetti diagrams.

 

[Matt Ress]

Mark Andrews hasn't gotten on track this year. Given our green-ness at LB, if Baltimore runs a lot of 1 RB/2 TE sets......they could GASH us on play-action to their tight ends (plural).

This could be a real bad matchup for our defense.

That said, their defense has been absolutely putrid against the pass.

Could be a high scoring game.

It will definitely be a tough matchup for our D. I wonder if they put an extra emphasis on plays designed to create turnovers. It seems like once we get a lead, the D line can pin back their ears and get QBs to make mistakes. We just need to get to that point

 

[Der Jaeger]

70% chance of rain in Baltimore Sunday (Helena remnants). It's early and things can change of course but time to watch those spaghetti diagrams.

View attachment 910003

Yes, but less than 1 inch of rain possible. The major bands will be clear of the Baltimore areas by Saturday, and just the remnants of the low which went into the Tennessee valley will be hanging around.

I'm not a weatherman, but I do work emergency management for South Carolina, and all our models show that to be the case.

 

[Jeremy2020]

I said all season that Beane had a vision for the WR and that was "Be Tall and Catch the Ball".

It's a lot like when he got Beasely and Brown for Allen )and then when he went and got Diggs). As Allen has grown and changed, Beane has gotten him WRs he needs. The drops / miscommunications last season were immense. As much as everyone is focused on getting rid of Diggs.. I think dropping Davis was as big of a deal. His 53% catch rate was awful. Outside the odd game he was a black hole of production.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Good to see Daboll trimmed down!

 

[Jeremy2020]

Good to see Daboll trimmed down!

Rex Ryan lost his power when he lost weight. Big mistake by Daboll.

 

[Uberpecker]

Is it too soon to extend Hollins? I can't remember the last time any addition did so much for the locker room.

A lot of people cite Diggs as a drama queen. Maybe. But I actually think the bigger issue he was bringing was how demanding he is on everyone. Sky high expectations. Every play the super bowl is on the line. Like a coach that breeds a high stress environment. After so many years of it, it really gets to you, things stop being fun.

This team? It's like Mack is teaching them how to have fun again.

Not to single you out at all, but I've been asking myself this for a while now, also with other players who've been labeled "locker room cancers":
Do fans have actual data on this, or is this mostly just rumors pieced together.

Honest question, since I'm not from the area and can't really assess how much actual insight people as well as the media can get into professional locker rooms in North America. From afar I get the impression that info getting out to the public is generally quite professionally whitewashed and message controlled.

I know a little from my country and it can vary quite a bit depending on the organization and their respective PR policies.

 

[1TuchAnd1NoTuch]

Not to single you out at all, but I've been asking myself this for a while now, also with other players who've been labeled "locker room cancers":
Do fans have actual data on this, or is this mostly just rumors pieced together.

Honest question, since I'm not from the area and can't really assess how much actual insight people as well as the media can get into professional locker rooms in North America. From afar I get the impression that info getting out to the public is generally quite professionally whitewashed and message controlled.

I know a little from my country and it can vary quite a bit depending on the organization and their respective PR policies.

I mean just look at the guys tweets

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839612498464367044

The Ravens have two good TEs and they have used 12 personnel a lot so far this season.

At least the Bills D is used to seeing that in practice.

 

[Jim Bob]

Not to single you out at all, but I've been asking myself this for a while now, also with other players who've been labeled "locker room cancers":
Do fans have actual data on this, or is this mostly just rumors pieced together.

Honest question, since I'm not from the area and can't really assess how much actual insight people as well as the media can get into professional locker rooms in North America. From afar I get the impression that info getting out to the public is generally quite professionally whitewashed and message controlled.

I know a little from my country and it can vary quite a bit depending on the organization and their respective PR policies.

I think Tim Graham summed it up well here:

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www.nytimes.com

Graham: The Bills don’t view Diggs as a consummate No. 1 receiver anymore and wanted to turn the page. Perhaps they could have squeezed one more season out of him, but compounded by the repeated microaggressions, those side-eyed comments, those cryptic social media posts (from him and little brother Trevon Diggs of the Dallas Cowboys) that took swipes at the organization and Josh Allen in particular got old for everybody at One Bills Drive. Everyone was so ready to move on that they’d rather choke on a $31 million cap hit and take a 2025 second-round draft choice than have Diggs back in their locker room. Doesn’t get much more damning than that.

Beane doesn't eat all that dead cap this year if there weren't serious issues behind the scenes.

And Diggs has come out on the record and said that he wanted out and made it happen.

 

[Dubi Doo]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839612498464367044

The Ravens have two good TEs and they have used 12 personnel a lot so far this season.

At least the Bills D is used to seeing that in practice.

I do worry that a 12 personnel set may be able to push around our smaller defense. That being said, I'm excited to see what Allen can do against another bad pass defense. Should be a good game, but I think we end up winning.

 

[Jim Bob]

I do worry that a 12 personnel set may be able to push around our smaller defense. That being said, I'm excited to see what Allen can do against another bad pass defense. Should be a good game, but I think we end up winning.

The Bills have not played a single down this season with 3 LBs on the field.

It has been 70%+ nickel and the rest of the time it has been the dime package like last year when they took the WLB off the field for a DB.

Cam Lewis leads the Bills D in missed tackles this season. If he doesn't have a strong tackling game, that might lead them to have to replace him with a LB against heavy sets. The challenge becomes who do they trust in that spot with TB & Milano out and their LB depth already being tested.

 

[Jim Bob]

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www.nytimes.com

Prediction: Bills 26, Ravens 24​

The Bills have enjoyed almost two full games of uncompetitive football, but that will likely change on Sunday night. It’s always a challenge to limit Jackson, and having a player like Zay Flowers who can create yards after a lower-yardage target could be something they look to use against the Bills. On the other hand, the Bills have done well to limit Jackson as a rusher in the past, which is encouraging for their prospects. One thing to keep an eye on is the status of left guard Andrew Voorhees, who may be in jeopardy of missing the game due to injury. That would go a long way to both helping limit running back Derrick Henry and getting pressure up the middle with defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

On offense, the Ravens aren’t likely to let quarterback Josh Allen get as many man-coverage looks as he got last week, but there will still be some chances. The Ravens play a fair amount of Cover 1, so this could even be a week where the Bills push the ball down the field for an explosive gain in the passing game. Ultimately, I think the Bills will have enough of an advantage with their passing attack against the Ravens secondary to counteract some of the success the Ravens’ offense will have. With Allen playing as well and controlled as he is as a passer, that should be enough to put them over the top in a close matchup.

I definitely see this as more of a pass first game on offense for the Bills. The Ravens D has been solid against the run and not great against the pass so far this season.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5777310/2024/09/26/nfl-front-office-rankings/

9. Buffalo Bills​

Total points: 33 (appeared on 9 ballots)
Owners: Terry and Kim Pegula
General manager: Brandon Beane
Head coach: Sean McDermott

Beane arrived from the Carolina Panthers in 2017 and, with McDermott, has morphed the Bills into a perennial contender. He traded up to draft quarterback Josh Allen in 2018, built up the roster around him and gave Allen the resources and time to develop from an unpolished QB into one of the league’s best players.

“Beane is the best GM in the NFL,” one executive said, adding he “understands people and culture.”

After three consecutive losses in the divisional round, Beane and the Bills traded wide receiver Stephon Diggs and moved on from aging, expensive defensive stalwarts. The early returns appear positive for the 3-0 Bills.

“I think Beane is a top-five GM,” said a general manager. “He is super smart, number one. It’s never about him. If you look at the drafting and free agents they have signed, how patient they have been with the head coach, got the quarterback right — that was a 50/50 deal. I’m a big fan of him. I’m a big fan of his coach. He’s got all the right stuff, in a tough market, by the way. This is not a place free agents are clamoring to go to.”

 

[HOOats]

The Bills have not played a single down this season with 3 LBs on the field.

It has been 70%+ nickel and the rest of the time it has been the dime package like last year when they took the WLB off the field for a DB.

Cam Lewis leads the Bills D in missed tackles this season. If he doesn't have a strong tackling game, that might lead them to have to replace him with a LB against heavy sets. The challenge becomes who do they trust in that spot with TB & Milano out and their LB depth already being tested.

Eh last year Bernard was 4th in the league in missed tackles and had a great year. I can't find this year's stats except behind PFF paywall (if anyone can share).

I imagine missed tackle rate and tackle rate correlate tightly. If you have a nose for the ball and play certain positions, you're going to rack up tackles and missed tackles. Sure some are better than others, but it's mostly an opportunity stat.

I'm a Lewis defender. I can't think of many plays he's disappointed on and can think of a bunch where he made a key stop. Reputation-wise, he's still unfairly paying for the Justin Jefferson play.

 

[Uberpecker]

I think Tim Graham summed it up well here:

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www.nytimes.com

Beane doesn't eat all that dead cap this year if there weren't serious issues behind the scenes.

And Diggs has come out on the record and said that he wanted out and made it happen.

That makes sense I guess. I don't pay much attention to twitter so I missed a lot of this.

 

[Jim Bob]

Eh last year Bernard was 4th in the league in missed tackles and had a great year. I can't find this year's stats except behind PFF paywall (if anyone can share).

I imagine missed tackle rate and tackle rate correlate tightly. If you have a nose for the ball and play certain positions, you're going to rack up tackles and missed tackles. Sure some are better than others, but it's mostly an opportunity stat.

I'm a Lewis defender. I can't think of many plays he's disappointed on and can think of a bunch where he made a key stop. Reputation-wise, he's still unfairly paying for the Justin Jefferson play.

I read somewhere this week that the Bills have had 11 missed tackles so far this season and Lewis has 7 of those.

The Bills have been able to play base nickel defense a ton in large part because Taron Johnson has been solid against the run. With Johnson on the shelf, that falls on Lewis. And given that we expect the Ravens to play a fair amount of heavy personnel and pound the rock both with Henry and Lamar, Lewis will have to be stout against the run. If he isn't, they may have to shift to having 3 LBs against heavy personnel.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Remember the debates last season regarding Beane's drafting ability? Well, he's absolutely slaughtered the past few drafts. Coming away with Kincaid, Cook, Shakir, Benford, Bernard, etc...is quite the haul.

 

[Jim Bob]

Remember the debates last season regarding Beane's drafting ability? Well, he's absolutely slaughtered the past few drafts. Coming away with Kincaid, Cook, Shakir, Benford, Bernard, etc...is quite the haul.

I think it is bigger than Beane and also talks to this coaching staff's ability to coach guys up.

Kromer has helped make picks like Torrence and Brown look good. The defensive staff has coached up a ton of day 3 guys into being solid parts of the operation.

I think this season shows that the organization as a whole is pretty solid because Beane and the scouting staff have gotten guys that fit what the coaches want to do AND the coaches have been earning their paychecks and then some.

The talk that the backups get one-on-one time with their position coaches to go over tape so they are ready when called upon is relatively unique to Buffalo from many reports. And it is likely a reason why day 3 picks and UDFAs have been able to step up and play well this season.