Buffalo Bills Week 15: Buffalo (10-3) at Detroit (12-1), 12/15, 4:25 PM, CBS

GameMisconduct

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I look at the roster now, and outside of QB, it looks worse than most drought-era teams.
I can understand the perspective you're operating from. Even though I don't agree with pessimism engendered by it to the degree you do, I can mostly understand the rationale.

But then there is the line quoted above--that one seems like such hyperbole to the point it sort of floored me. Can you elaborate a bit more on that part because that specific take just seems wild to me.
 

May Day 10

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Apr 19, 2006
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I can understand the perspective you're operating from. Even though I don't agree with pessimism engendered by it to the degree you do, I can mostly understand the rationale.

But then there is the line quoted above--that one seems like such hyperbole to the point it sort of floored me. Can you elaborate a bit more on that part because that specific take just seems wild to me.

Im still hopeful, mind you. Ill be at the opener rooting for them, and I hope (as I said a few posts ago) stick the landing. Its like the old cartoons and I have an Angel on one side telling me it will be just fine because: Josh Allen, cap room in 2025, and McDermott's history of defensive results. Ill be delighted if the team even gets a wild card spot.
Then the devil on the other side is telling me all that other stuff.

Id say, just look at the WR room compared to drought-era teams. I just dialed up 2010 randomly and we had Lee Evans, Stevie Johnson, and Roscoe Parrish. Marshawn and Fred Jackson as RBs too (oh yeah, CJ Spiller!).

WR now looks really weak. Compare them to the Jets, Miami, or Houston. Not to Mention Cincinnati or Cleveland.
Curtis Samuel
Khalil Shakir (who everyone seems presumptuous in assuming he is going to break out)
MVS
Mack Hollins
Keon Coleman

I look at that group of 5, even assuming Samuel is healthy, and I think that is weak. Very weak. WR was a major need on this team when they had Stefon Diggs and he was performing well (and also had Gabe Davis). They failed to corral that legit 1B/WR2 and it likely cost them a Super Bowl. So not only was/is that still a need, they "lost" Diggs and Davis too.
 
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Der Jaeger

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I haven't listened to this, but it sounds like an interesting loophole. As said in the last thread i didn't think Jonathan was eligible because he technically hadn't come through the IPP but I'm not certain about it.

One other point though. Toohill is the #6 EDGE on the roster not including Jonathan. That does seem excessive even for a team that employs a lot of rotation...
Edge players are good ST players to have as well. They can block like extra TEs on punts and cover those punts, they are fast enough to play kickoff (especially now), and they can block on kickoffs too. And they are good for punt block and FG/XP blocks.
Mind you, Im not 100% negative about it. I am hopeful things can stay afloat, they can stick the landing, and the next 7 or so years with Josh Allen can bring more championship opportunity. I do like Brandon Beane for the most part, and like McDermott, although he has a stubborn side that makes me nervous.

However, the voice on the other side...

I see the horribly inept Pegula has been as a steward of the Sabres franchise. He has tendencies and preferences that contradict winning (likes "authenticity", values some sort of honesty, the "communication" buzzword). I believe he likes management who treats him like an equal and will entertain (and even act on) his ideas. I have always felt that Bills fans should enjoy it now, because dark times are ahead with this guy. If/when he has his Linda Bogdan moment with Beane/McDermott, we could be in the dark ages for awhile

The Bills had lightning in a bottle all at once. A very athletically gifted, young QB (on a entry deal), and other high-end players and leaders on both sides of the ball: Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, Morse, Edmunds, White, Beazley, etc. as well as other role players who were glue like Lee Smith. Don't forget Brown and Emmanuel Sanders too. So many of them are gone now. They still have a couple in Dawkins, Milano (injured), maybe Oliver, and maybe Gilliam.

I also believe that Brian Daboll and how the offense was run had a lot to do with their success. I subscribe to the theory that things got icey between Daboll and McDermott, and it would have split anyway. Brady now seems like he was more ball-control, run-run-pass like McDermott probably prefers.

I look at the roster now, and outside of QB, it looks worse than most drought-era teams. I look at the athletes most other AFC competitors have amassed, compared to the Bills and it appears like we are seriously out-manned. Fans and media also seem to be putting too much expectation on Dalton Kincaid right now.

And I also wonder if we are going to see a decline in Josh Allen from this point on. He has taken a lot of hits. You can't help but wonder/fear if his passing abilities will sustain enough once his ability to escape, run, and take hits starts to go away, and he will have an arc similar to Cam Newton. You look at the clown car of a receiver room and there is not much support there.
If you put Allen on some of the Jauron, Gailey, Marrone, or Ryan teams, they'd make the playoffs. Edwards got hurt and for as much as we love Fitzpatrick, he was inconsistent.

Look at the 2007 Bills. Lots of close scores. Allen turns that 7-9 team into a wild card team. Lynch, Jackson, Lee Evans, Schobel, McGee, Jason Peters, and Kyle Williams were on that team.

2008 Bills Had those same players plus Posluszny and Stroud. That team started 4-0 before Edwards got hurt. Allen takes that 7-9 team into the playoffs as well.

The 2011 Gailey Bills started 5-2 with some big early season wins. Fitzpatrick was inconsistent and crashed after the 23-0 win over Washington. They went 6-10 but 5 of those games were really tight. That team had Jackson, Spiller, Stevie Johnson, Byrd, Dareus, Kelsay, and Aaron Williams.

2012 was similar, and they added Mario Williams and Gilmore. Spiller had a huge year. Borderline playoff team with Allen.

2013 under Marrone featured a defense with three linemen who had 10 sacks (Williams, Hughes, Williams). The defense was really good. But with EJ Manuel under center, they couldn't score. 4 games were tight and Allen would've made a difference between 6-10 and 10-6.

2014 under Marrone should've been a playoff team. Orton to Watkins was amazing. 4 tight games where Allen instead of Orton, and they win. Watkins and Woods along with Chandler and Hogan as receivers, and the latter two caught a lot of footballs. 3 players on the defense with 10 or more sacks (Hughes, Mario Williams, Dareus) plus Kyle Williams, Gilmore, etc.

Ryan went 8-8 with Taylor, who was good but not great. McCoy was on that team offensively, along with Watkins and Woods. Defense was good but had not made the adjustment from 4-3 to 3-4 yet. 4 tight losses that year, where Allen would've made an impact.

Ryan and Lynn in 2016 went 7-9. 5 tight losses. Defense was better. Allen makes a big difference that year.

TL;DR. The reason you have a QB like Allen is that sometimes the difference between 6-10 and 10-6 isn't the roster. It's the QB. Many of the drought era teams could've made the playoffs with Allen, or really any other franchise QB, under center. It's why you work so hard to get that guy.
 
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brian_griffin

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Im still hopeful, mind you. Ill be at the opener rooting for them, and I hope (as I said a few posts ago) stick the landing. Its like the old cartoons and I have an Angel on one side telling me it will be just fine because: Josh Allen, cap room in 2025, and McDermott's history of defensive results. Ill be delighted if the team even gets a wild card spot.
Then the devil on the other side is telling me all that other stuff.

Id say, just look at the WR room compared to drought-era teams. I just dialed up 2010 randomly and we had Lee Evans, Stevie Johnson, and Roscoe Parrish. Marshawn and Fred Jackson as RBs too (oh yeah, CJ Spiller!).

WR now looks really weak. Compare them to the Jets, Miami, or Houston. Not to Mention Cincinnati or Cleveland.
Curtis Samuel
Khalil Shakir (who everyone seems presumptuous in assuming he is going to break out)
MVS
Mack Hollins
Keon Coleman

I look at that group of 5, even assuming Samuel is healthy, and I think that is weak. Very weak. WR was a major need on this team when they had Stefon Diggs and he was performing well (and also had Gabe Davis). They failed to corral that legit 1B/WR2 and it likely cost them a Super Bowl. So not only was/is that still a need, they "lost" Diggs and Davis too.
To pile on to @Der Jaeger 's point, the WR corps contribution to W-L record will be measured on production / output, not name recognition. I'm not worried. Even with Daboll gone, Allen's attempts, yards, % complete, etc. the past two years isn't different from when Daboll was with BUF.

If you believe the bolded, then your conclusion is logical. If you instead believe it ("it" = what cost them a SB - assuming you're making a full or partial reference to 0:13 KC game, last years loss at home, etc.) was massive starter and backup defensive injuries and/or late-game execution on that side of the ball, you don't come to that conclusion.

To a carpenter, every problem is a nail.
 

TheAngryHank

Expert
May 28, 2008
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Edge players are good ST players to have as well. They can block like extra TEs on punts and cover those punts, they are fast enough to play kickoff (especially now), and they can block on kickoffs too. And they are good for punt block and FG/XP blocks.

If you put Allen on some of the Jauron, Gailey, Marrone, or Ryan teams, they'd make the playoffs. Edwards got hurt and for as much as we love Fitzpatrick, he was inconsistent.

Look at the 2007 Bills. Lots of close scores. Allen turns that 7-9 team into a wild card team. Lynch, Jackson, Lee Evans, Schobel, McGee, Jason Peters, and Kyle Williams were on that team.

2008 Bills Had those same players plus Posluszny and Stroud. That team started 4-0 before Edwards got hurt. Allen takes that 7-9 team into the playoffs as well.

The 2011 Gailey Bills started 5-2 with some big early season wins. Fitzpatrick was inconsistent and crashed after the 23-0 win over Washington. They went 6-10 but 5 of those games were really tight. That team had Jackson, Spiller, Stevie Johnson, Byrd, Dareus, Kelsay, and Aaron Williams.

2012 was similar, and they added Mario Williams and Gilmore. Spiller had a huge year. Borderline playoff team with Allen.

2013 under Marrone featured a defense with three linemen who had 10 sacks (Williams, Hughes, Williams). The defense was really good. But with EJ Manuel under center, they couldn't score. 4 games were tight and Allen would've made a difference between 6-10 and 10-6.

2014 under Marrone should've been a playoff team. Orton to Watkins was amazing. 4 tight games where Allen instead of Orton, and they win. Watkins and Woods along with Chandler and Hogan as receivers, and the latter two caught a lot of footballs. 3 players on the defense with 10 or more sacks (Hughes, Mario Williams, Dareus) plus Kyle Williams, Gilmore, etc.

Ryan went 8-8 with Taylor, who was good but not great. McCoy was on that team offensively, along with Watkins and Woods. Defense was good but had not made the adjustment from 4-3 to 3-4 yet. 4 tight losses that year, where Allen would've made an impact.

Ryan and Lynn in 2016 went 7-9. 5 tight losses. Defense was better. Allen makes a big difference that year.

TL;DR. The reason you have a QB like Allen is that sometimes the difference between 6-10 and 10-6 isn't the roster. It's the QB. Many of the drought era teams could've made the playoffs with Allen, or really any other franchise QB, under center. It's why you work so hard to get that guy.
Bills were usually drafting high so depth is easier to build than drafting at the bottom but your point remains.
 
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Der Jaeger

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I think the PS picks are pretty interesting. If you're making a scout offense:

WR: Hamler, Cain, Shavers
OT: Cayton and Gouraige
IOL: Clapp and Edwards
QB: White
RB: Gore

That's basically your entire offense aside from a guard. They can spend time learning the next opponent if not elevated. Very good capability to have.

They're close to that on defense too:

DE: Cline and Jonathan
DT: Ankou and Deen
CB: Hardy and Couch
S: Jackson and Cine

Throw in some LBs and a defensive back, and you've got the same capability on defense.

You could make a case that there may have been more talented players available, but still, there's a lot of talent here and it simultaneously provides overall roster depth with scout team capabilities. Having Jonathan and Clayton was very smart by Beane.
 

GameMisconduct

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Jul 20, 2006
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Im still hopeful, mind you. Ill be at the opener rooting for them, and I hope (as I said a few posts ago) stick the landing. Its like the old cartoons and I have an Angel on one side telling me it will be just fine because: Josh Allen, cap room in 2025, and McDermott's history of defensive results. Ill be delighted if the team even gets a wild card spot.
Then the devil on the other side is telling me all that other stuff.

Id say, just look at the WR room compared to drought-era teams. I just dialed up 2010 randomly and we had Lee Evans, Stevie Johnson, and Roscoe Parrish. Marshawn and Fred Jackson as RBs too (oh yeah, CJ Spiller!).

WR now looks really weak. Compare them to the Jets, Miami, or Houston. Not to Mention Cincinnati or Cleveland.
Curtis Samuel
Khalil Shakir (who everyone seems presumptuous in assuming he is going to break out)
MVS
Mack Hollins
Keon Coleman

I look at that group of 5, even assuming Samuel is healthy, and I think that is weak. Very weak. WR was a major need on this team when they had Stefon Diggs and he was performing well (and also had Gabe Davis). They failed to corral that legit 1B/WR2 and it likely cost them a Super Bowl. So not only was/is that still a need, they "lost" Diggs and Davis too.
Sincere thanks for following up on that point. I appreciate it. I think WR is the probably the obvious place where you can make a justifiable comparison because of who we lost, and exacerbated the fact that we have precisely zero 'name'/proven guys there. I do think that some of those guys were beneficiaries of scheme w/ Gailey etc to an extent, but there was definite talent there as well (though I was not an especially big Parrish fan).

I think/hope that you'll see some differences after this season in how at least one or two of those guys who have yet to proven will produce. I'm especially bullish on Shakir, who stodd out for me last year because of the elements he brought that we lacked elsewhere in the WR group. Like @Der Jaeger points out the QB contribution can't be overstated.

But even granting the potential WR disparty, the thing I circle back to is the overall roster. This is a roster in transition but there are clear invidual and positional groupings of strength where for most of the drought era it seemed like too much of the roster was making do with what we could and we lacked the organizational cohesiveness to produce the synergy needed to lift up the overall group (apologies for the buzz-wordiness in the last part of that sentance). To me it feels like we're in a much better place as an organization and that gives me some faith.

Hopefully the angel on your shoulder is the smart one!
 

ValJamesDuex

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Updated roster from SAL.C
1724964911437.png
 
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misterchainsaw

Preparing PHASE TWO!
Nov 3, 2005
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I have no doubt we're better off than any of the drought teams because of QB1, but I am concerned with the schedule - we can't really afford to get off to a slow start. After Arizona we go @ MIA, JAX, @BAL, @HOU.

If either unit gets out to a slow start that could be 1-4 easily, and we'd still have the Niners and Chiefs left on the schedule as well as Miami and the Jets twice.

There's a reason it's so hard to repeat as divisional champions or make the playoffs as consistently as the Bills have in the NFL the past 4-5 years (4 for div winners, 5 for playoffs) - the player turnover is one thing (guys play well and need to get paid) but the schedule's first place teams play can be brutal, especially when you're already playing tough divisions in the rotation.
 

Dubi Doo

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Edge players are good ST players to have as well. They can block like extra TEs on punts and cover those punts, they are fast enough to play kickoff (especially now), and they can block on kickoffs too. And they are good for punt block and FG/XP blocks.

If you put Allen on some of the Jauron, Gailey, Marrone, or Ryan teams, they'd make the playoffs. Edwards got hurt and for as much as we love Fitzpatrick, he was inconsistent.

Look at the 2007 Bills. Lots of close scores. Allen turns that 7-9 team into a wild card team. Lynch, Jackson, Lee Evans, Schobel, McGee, Jason Peters, and Kyle Williams were on that team.

2008 Bills Had those same players plus Posluszny and Stroud. That team started 4-0 before Edwards got hurt. Allen takes that 7-9 team into the playoffs as well.

The 2011 Gailey Bills started 5-2 with some big early season wins. Fitzpatrick was inconsistent and crashed after the 23-0 win over Washington. They went 6-10 but 5 of those games were really tight. That team had Jackson, Spiller, Stevie Johnson, Byrd, Dareus, Kelsay, and Aaron Williams.

2012 was similar, and they added Mario Williams and Gilmore. Spiller had a huge year. Borderline playoff team with Allen.

2013 under Marrone featured a defense with three linemen who had 10 sacks (Williams, Hughes, Williams). The defense was really good. But with EJ Manuel under center, they couldn't score. 4 games were tight and Allen would've made a difference between 6-10 and 10-6.

2014 under Marrone should've been a playoff team. Orton to Watkins was amazing. 4 tight games where Allen instead of Orton, and they win. Watkins and Woods along with Chandler and Hogan as receivers, and the latter two caught a lot of footballs. 3 players on the defense with 10 or more sacks (Hughes, Mario Williams, Dareus) plus Kyle Williams, Gilmore, etc.

Ryan went 8-8 with Taylor, who was good but not great. McCoy was on that team offensively, along with Watkins and Woods. Defense was good but had not made the adjustment from 4-3 to 3-4 yet. 4 tight losses that year, where Allen would've made an impact.

Ryan and Lynn in 2016 went 7-9. 5 tight losses. Defense was better. Allen makes a big difference that year.

TL;DR. The reason you have a QB like Allen is that sometimes the difference between 6-10 and 10-6 isn't the roster. It's the QB. Many of the drought era teams could've made the playoffs with Allen, or really any other franchise QB, under center. It's why you work so hard to get that guy.
This doesn't even get into the difference coaching makes, too. McD is better than any drought era coach we had. He took a Tyrod Taylor led team to the playoffs. Insane!
 
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whiplash

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This doesn't even get into the difference coaching makes, too. McD is better than any drought era coach we had. He took a Tyrod Taylor led team to the playoffs. Insane!
I'll die on the hill that Tyrod and McCoy had more to do w/ that season (edit: as in, the playoff appearance) than McDermott. It was, rightfully, a teardown year and the offense amounted to one of those two somehow shimmying out of a mass of bodies and saving a dead play. Zero arguments on the drought predecessors point.

Re: this year - IF everything clicks, I bet we could make noise in the playoffs (doubtful for a SB appearance). Most likely it ends up being a retool year with a lot of new faces auditioning for the following 2-3 seasons. Two things I'd love to see: a Cook breakout year; Allen staying healthy and clicking with Brady. Defense I'm not very stoked on without Milano but I'm ready to be surprised
 

NotABadPeriod

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I'll die on the hill that Tyrod and McCoy had more to do w/ that season (edit: as in, the playoff appearance) than McDermott. It was, rightfully, a teardown year and the offense amounted to one of those two somehow shimmying out of a mass of bodies and saving a dead play. Zero arguments on the drought predecessors point.

Re: this year - IF everything clicks, I bet we could make noise in the playoffs (doubtful for a SB appearance). Most likely it ends up being a retool year with a lot of new faces auditioning for the following 2-3 seasons. Two things I'd love to see: a Cook breakout year; Allen staying healthy and clicking with Brady. Defense I'm not very stoked on without Milano but I'm ready to be surprised
I think that's selling the 2017 defense short. They had a miserable stretch in the middle of the season, but the revamped secondary (Poyer/Hyde at safety, rookie Tre, and surprisingly serviceable EJ Gaines as CB2) really played well and made a bunch of impact plays, Milano's emergence at LB was huge, and of course Hughes/Williams up front. Defense kept them in most of those games.
 
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ValJamesDuex

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What is the NFL thinking not starting the the regular season on a holiday weekend ? So many people asked me this week why there is no NFL this weekend.
 
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Rowley Birkin

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This isn't directed at anyone in particular - but to anyone still complaining about the Bills' WR group - MVS was essentially WR2 on KCs last two title winning teams. He currently projects as being WR5 on this team...
 

Jim Bob

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The toughest part of the potential Aiyuk to Buffalo talk was the cap and the money he wanted given Josh Allen's contract and their cap situation now and moving forward.

The second toughest part was projecting how good Aiyuk might be if he had lesser guys around him and if he got a lot larger target% than he has the last two years in the supercharged "everyone eats" offense in SF.

Kincaid isn't Kittle yet.

Cook isn't CMC.

Shakir and Curtis Samuel aren't Deebo Samuel.
 
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ValJamesDuex

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There is some very sad sports/hockey news coming out this morning. If anyone needs to talk about this feel free to PM me over the weekend.
 

ValJamesDuex

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The toughest part of the potential Aiyuk to Buffalo talk was the cap and the money he wanted given Josh Allen's contract and their cap situation now and moving forward.

The second toughest part was projecting how good Aiyuk might be if he had lesser guys around him and if he got a lot larger target% than he has the last two years in the supercharged "everyone eats" offense in SF.

Kincaid isn't Kittle yet.

Cook isn't CMC.

Shakir and Curtis Samuel aren't Deebo Samuel.
I have high hopes for Shakir this season. Even drafted him late for fantasy, but I thought someone comparing his potential production to Robert Woods is about right on the money, I'm expecting/hoping for about 65/700/4. Anything more is a bonus. Hope he can stay healthy as well.
 

Jim Bob

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This isn't directed at anyone in particular - but to anyone still complaining about the Bills' WR group - MVS was essentially WR2 on KCs last two title winning teams. He currently projects as being WR5 on this team...
He was 3rd in Targets and he was 6th in KC WRs in Targets per Game Played among KC WRs last season.

He was 2nd in snaps per game among KC WRs. But, they had 4 WRs in the 33-40 snaps per game range (Rice, MVA, Moore, and Watson).

He ran a lot of "love of the game" routes to clear out stuff underneath I am guessing.
 
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