I feel like there's a pretty clear group of playoff teams:
- 4 Big Ten teams (Oregon, Ohio St, Penn St, Indiana)
- 3 SEC teams (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee - A&M has an outside chance but must win the conference, they'd replace Tennessee if so)
- 2 ACC teams (Miami and SMU, Clemson if either of those stumble)
- Big 12 winner
- Notre Dame
- G5 winner (likely Boise)
Outside of another massive upset, this seems like a safe bet to me.
There's also a world I can see where if A&M pulls off the miracle, only the ACC winner makes it and Tennessee gets in over a 2nd ACC team.