The wins: vs. Arizona (
34-28), at Miami (
31-10), vs. Jacksonville (
47-10)
What was supposed to be a transitional year turned out to be a transitional half. The Bills looked sloppy during the first two quarters of their opener against the Cardinals; at the two-minute warning, they trailed 17-3. Since then, they've outscored their opponents by a combined total of 109-23, scoring touchdowns on more than half of their offensive drives that haven't involved kneel-downs. They appear to have sent the Jaguars
into an existential crisis Monday night, with the Buffalo offense scoring touchdowns on its first five drives en route to a 47-10 blowout.
The star, of course, has been
Josh Allen. Through three weeks, his 92.6
QBR is the best of any passer in football by more than 11 points. It's the best QBR posted by any quarterback over the first three weeks of the season since 2007, the first year for which QBR exists. And yes, that means Allen has been better through the first three weeks of 2024 than
Tom Brady was across the first three weeks of the 2007 season, when he was about to post historic numbers and
win his first MVP award. Allen stands as the favorite to claim that hardware, albeit with a long ways to go.
The Allen story is simple: He's combining all of the good things that typically come with Josh Allen football and virtually none of the problems. He hasn't thrown an interception yet. He lost a fumble in the Arizona game but hasn't otherwise coughed up the football. On top of that, he's continuing to avoid sacks at league-best rates, with opposing pass rushers taking him down on just 2.7% of dropbacks. When a quarterback doesn't turn the ball over, doesn't take sacks and has the ability to do Josh Allen things, he's going to post historically impressive numbers.
While Allen has the arm strength to make any throw, he's picking teams apart in the intermediate range. Allen ranked 18th in QBR last season on throws in the range of 11-20 air yards, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. This season, he leads the league with a 99.9 QBR on those throws, going 9-of-11 for 169 yards and three scores, an average of 15.4 yards per throw. It helps when
Khalil Shakir, seemingly Allen's new top target, has caught all 14 of the passes thrown in his direction.
Before the season, it wouldn't have been shocking to imagine Allen playing lights-out football for three weeks. The bigger concern for the Bills seemed to be the defense, which was losing stalwart defensive backs
Tre'Davious White,
Jordan Poyer and
Micah Hyde. Things got worse when star linebacker
Matt Milano tore
a biceps muscle in August, then became even more harrowing when top cornerback
Taron Johnson went down after just seven snaps in the opener.
Terrel Bernard, who inherited the top linebacker spot after Milano's injury,
suffered a pectoral strain early in Week 2 and hasn't been on the field since.
And yet, somehow, the Bills are thriving on defense. Coach Sean McDermott is blitzing less often, but they've managed to maintain similar pressure rates. When the score has been within 14 points, he has called blitzes on just over 20% of opposing dropbacks, down from 24% a year ago. Blitzing less often should mean a decrease in pressure, but after leading the league with a 32.4% pressure rate when sending four or fewer in those 14-point scenarios a year ago, Buffalo is actually up to 33.3% in those same spots this season.
The real shocker is what's happening when the pass rush doesn't get home. With the Bills signing
Taylor Rapp and promoting
Damar Hamlin into starting roles at safety and going without Johnson for most of the season, McDermott's secondary has managed to thrive. The Bills lead the league with a 32.5 QBR allowed when opposing passers work out of clean pockets. They're allowing 4.8 yards per attempt in those situations, more than a full yard per attempt better than any other team.
As is often the case for a McDermott-coordinated defense, Buffalo is thriving by avoiding the big play. It's the only team to avoid giving up 30 yards or more on a single play this season, which it has done despite facing the third-most snaps of any defense. The average team gives up a 30-plus yarder about once every 50 snaps. The Bills haven't given up one in 203.
Combine a defense that doesn't give up big plays, an offense that doesn't make mistakes and a quarterback who is capable of the seemingly impossible, and what do you get? Ten straight quarters of irresistible football. Things are about to get tougher for the Bills, who have a three-game road trip against the Ravens, Texans and Jets on deck, but make no mistake: This is comfortably the best team in football through three games.
