NFL GDT: Week 10: The Lion Scores Tonight

bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
24,577
61,119
Rams sure aren’t playing like a team fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot. What an awful game. If this game was in my backyard I’d close the drapes.
 
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StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
29,031
11,237
Rams should've went for the touchdown instead of the field goal. They were already there.
Not going for the TD left them no margin for error on D and they gave up a FG so now down 2 scores with under 3 minutes when they got the ball back.

The analytics don’t tell the coaches to gamble for the TD in that situation?
 

bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
24,577
61,119
Not going for the TD left them no margin for error on D and they gave up a FG so now down 2 scores with under 3 minutes when they got the ball back.

The analytics don’t tell the coaches to gamble for the TD in that situation?


Yup, complete head scratcher.
 

bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
24,577
61,119
Pretty much it for the Rams. Likely have to win 6 of 8 to even have a chance, with 4 of those games against really good teams.
 

hatterson

Registered User
Apr 12, 2010
36,565
14,089
North Tonawanda, NY
The field goal on third down is an all time stupid decision when you're down 11.

At the very least you use the 3rd down to take a shot at the endzone from 12 yards away.

Worst case it fails and you cost yourself 5-7 seconds. You were always gonna be up against it driving from roughly your own 40 in 40 seconds with 1 timeout to get a TD, but now you'd have ~35 seconds. Not *that* big a difference.

But if you make it now you also give yourself the big benefit of knowing if you made the 2 point conversion or not. If you make the 2 pt then you know you only need a FG to tie, so you only have to go ~20 yards to get in range. If you fail the 2pt then you know you need a TD to win and need ~60 yards so you can call plays around that.

Kicking the FG first means that you have no way to recover if you fail the 2pt conversion after a TD.

The early FG in that situation only makes sense when it's like 3rd and 25 and it's just better to take the FG than spend time. But it's 3rd and 10 at the 12. You've got like a billion plays in your playbook to get that and there's basically zero risk of the clock running. And even if it does you have a timeout.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
192,993
43,485
Not going for the TD left them no margin for error on D and they gave up a FG so now down 2 scores with under 3 minutes when they got the ball back.

The analytics don’t tell the coaches to gamble for the TD in that situation?
It’s not even analytics, if you score and miss the 2, you still need another touchdown.
 
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StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
29,031
11,237
It’s not even analytics, if you score and miss the 2, you still need another touchdown.
I know. But the coaches now go for 2 when they get a TD to close it to 8 but rather than the Pat to cut it to 7, they try for 2 point try to get it to 6.

If you are going to follow that, imo it’s more logical to go for the TD down 11 as you need one anyways. Unless you have the 2000 ravens, Seattle lob or Denver’s no fly zone D, or even KC’s D, you can’t bank on forcing a punt with over 6 minutes to go at that time.
 
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Blitzkrug

Registered User
Sep 17, 2013
27,235
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Winnipeg
Coach Nerd lives to fight another day @Blitzkrug
Meh. Season's still cooked.

Screenshot 2024-11-11 233156.png


Miami would essentially need to go 6-2 at minimum to even think about having a chance, and would then need both Indy and Cincy to keep shitting themselves to even get in the conversation. THEN they would also need Denver to fall off. Maybe if they didn't blow back to back to back winnable games before this one they could think about it.
 

EpochLink

Canucks and Jets fan
Aug 1, 2006
63,484
18,215
Vancouver, BC
Meh. Season's still cooked.

View attachment 929476

Miami would essentially need to go 6-2 at minimum to even think about having a chance, and would then need both Indy and Cincy to keep shitting themselves to even get in the conversation. THEN they would also need Denver to fall off. Maybe if they didn't blow back to back to back winnable games before this one they could think about it.

Raiders vs Dolphins? That's a free win right there my friend :laugh:
 
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