Friedman: Weber could be traded to a team looking to hit the salary floor

[Habs Halifax]

You'd think the NHLPA would be all over this. It's basically taking money out of the players pockets.

No it's not. It's lowering the escrow and the players probably like it. Where in the past, when Weber was making $14M and his cap hit was $7.86M, he was making the escrow higher.

Remember, almost everything is tied to the 50/50 revenue split and yearly escrow. Players hate escrow cause it claws back their pay checks but it's the only way to even out the revenue. Kind of like filing your taxes at the end of the year where you might get some money back or you might pay more.

Escrow is basically a yearly calculation projection on actual salaries (not cap hits). Cap hits is just the averaging point to make sure things are not too skewed to much to balance out.

 

[Habs Halifax]

So, if he indeed is getting traded and likely to Arizona, what about:

Montreal gets:
Chychrun

Arizona gets:
Weber
2022 MTL 1st unprotected

Nice try but we decline.

No way the Habs should trade for Chychrun who ends up a UFA right around the time the cap significantly grows (after the NHLPA pays of their Covid balance) and his agent gives you fits on an extension. Look at the 4/5+ year terms handed out recently? Agents are not dumb, if you are trying to buy UFA years and also years where the cap will be $90M+, you are going to pay big time

Cup contenders who need a very good young top 4D on a value contract should be trading for Chychrun. Not rebuilding teams. We don't have to move Weber cause we are not going to be spending to the max cap.

If the Coyotes want Weber to reach the cap floor, give us a call and we can send you a 6th or 7th rounder to get it done.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Montreal says no

Agreed. Not because we don't like Chychrun but it's just not a fit and there is no way we really need to trade Weber at this point. And also for a guy who has 3 more years left and then UFA where we trade a top 5 pick? Not happening for the Habs.

Cup contenders looking for a legit top 4D on a value contract should be trading for Chychrun. Not the Habs

 

[jetsforever]

Sad to think of him as retired now

 

[mouser]

No it's not. It's lowering the escrow and the players probably like it. Where in the past, when Weber was making $14M and his cap hit was $7.86M, he was making the escrow higher.

Remember, almost everything is tied to the 50/50 revenue split and yearly escrow. Players hate escrow cause it claws back their pay checks but it's the only way to even out the revenue. Kind of like filing your taxes at the end of the year where you might get some money back or you might pay more.

Escrow is basically a yearly calculation projection on actual salaries (not cap hits). Cap hits is just the averaging point to make sure things are not too skewed to much to balance out.

LTIR always increases Escrow.

If Weber was simply on IR it would decrease Escrow by $1.9m because his $6m salary this season is less then his $7.9m cap hit.

However once Weber goes on LTIR and Montreal uses all that space they are now spending $13.9m this season on players vs Weber’s $7.9m cap hit—increasing Escrow by $6m.

 

[HuGort]

I imagine similar to Pronger trade to Arizona. Flyers got a 4th rounder and Sam Gagner

 

[Paper]

I don't understand. In order for a cheap team to take advantage of paying his minimal salary while absorbing his high cap hit, wouldn't Weber have to be listed on the active roster or on IR? But because his career is done, doesn't he have to be put on LTIR, and thus not count towards the cap while insurance pays his contract?

Players on LTIR always count against the cap.

What putting a player on LTIR does is allow you to exceed the cap. This is why performance bonuses and LTIR's don't mix well, and even LTIR and trade deadline as you're not banking cap.

Let's say the cap was 85M, a team going into the season has 80M in cap plus a player who could get an additional 3.5M in bonuses. No worries here as you're at most seeing 83.5M, so no overages next season. If the team wanted to, assuming the trade deadline was 2/3 through the season, they could acquire a 15M cap hit player (with only 5M of his cap counting) and be compliant. In that case any bonuses above 85M would be deferred to next season's cap.

Now if that same team were to acquire a lameduck LTIR player in the offseason with a 6M cap and never going to play again. They would first get to 85M by assigning a player or two to the AHL keeping as close to 85M as possible, then put the player on LTIR, the team would now be able to have a cap of 91M. However, in doing so, at the end of the season all the performance bonuses that player made up to 3.5M count against next season. At the trade deadline, instead of that 15M cap player, they could only acquire a 6M cap hit player.

 

[HuGort]

Players on LTIR always count against the cap.

What putting a player on LTIR does is allow you to exceed the cap. This is why performance bonuses and LTIR's don't mix well, and even LTIR and trade deadline as you're not banking cap.

Let's say the cap was 85M, a team going into the season has 80M in cap plus a player who could get an additional 3.5M in bonuses. No worries here as you're at most seeing 83.5M, so no overages next season. If the team wanted to, assuming the trade deadline was 2/3 through the season, they could acquire a 15M cap hit player (with only 5M of his cap counting) and be compliant. In that case any bonuses above 85M would be deferred to next season's cap.

Now if that same team were to acquire a lameduck LTIR player in the offseason with a 6M cap and never going to play again. They would first get to 85M by assigning a player or two to the AHL keeping as close to 85M as possible, then put the player on LTIR, the team would now be able to have a cap of 91M. However, in doing so, at the end of the season all the performance bonuses that player made up to 3.5M count against next season. At the trade deadline, instead of that 15M cap player, they could only acquire a 6M cap hit player.

If they on LTIR long term, league should force retirement.

 

[Paper]

If they on LTIR long term, league should force retirement.

There's not many more contracts like this one though. In that I mean frontloaded contracts that have significantly lower values in the last years of their contracts resulting in cap recaptures. Luongo did retire with the cap recapture. Parise and Suter got bought out. Carter has already signed an extension with the Penguins and I doubt they are trying to weasel themselves out of Crosby's contract right now lol. Quick and Keith have just one year left after this one. Those were the last of the cap recapture contracts.

You'd be trying to fix a problem that is about to fix itself. And this problem is already being created because they tried to fix another problem with the cap recapture after already trying to fix it once.

Of the past ones, you can make the case for some abusing the LTIR but you can't force a player to retire. Like I doubt anyone is questioning Franzen's LTIR placement, while Hossa's allergy was a bit more questionable, and trading Pronger's cap hit and having him hired by the NHL while still officially active was obviously a weird quirk but for a player like Kesler who can't play but hasn't retired, how do you force him to sacrifice the money owed to him? (The Ducks didn't need to use the LTIR for Kesler but they always had the opportunity and as such it's obvious that Kesler was injured and couldn't play)

And it doesn't really matter now as the changes to the CBAs over the years have resulted in contracts that aren't designed to have retirement years. In retrospect they should have put a stop to this in 2007 when Kiprusoff and Sutter signed the first retirement contract instead of letting it escalate to Kovalchuk's denied contract.

Now though the biggest offenders can only result in one year of "retirement" years. Players like Karlson, Stone, Tavares, Marner, Benn, Seguin, Lucic etc. who will make a million dollars or so in actual salary their last season after being paid their signing bonus. Probably none of which were actually signed with that intent in mind. At that point there's very little reason to abuse the LTIR when just retiring and sacrificing 1% of the contract. Using Tavares strictly as an example he has a 0.910M salary in 2024-2025 which is 1.18% of his total 77M. Keeping in mind to abuse the LTIR, the player, team and doctors pretty much have to work together, so at that point it would just be easier for the Leafs to tell Tavares to retire and then hire him as an amateur scout and give him some alumni roles in the future that won't ever get on the NHL's radar. But if Tavares legitimately got hurt tomorrow and his career ended, there's no way the NHL can (nor should it) force him to retire and sacrifice 25M.

 

[Paper]

But speaking of that. Lucic next year will have a 5.25M cap hit but only owed 0.825M after his signing bonus is paid (as a result of retained transaction). He's nearing a perfect fourth liner and has 10 goals already. If (big if) he waived his NTC or did not have Arizona on it, would Arizona be willing to give up anything for him?

 

[SwedishFire]

Arizona is like that armchair GM team where you just for curiosity see what you get if you collect all bad contracts in the league in one team, meanwhile stocking 1sts.

 

[CupInSIX]

Did it get moved today?

 

[mattef]

Hughes confirmed in his presser that it came close, and that Arizona getting Little was "possibly"why it didn't work out

 

[pth2]

Hughes confirmed in his presser that it came close, and that Arizona getting Little was "possibly"why it didn't work out

So if that deal now falls apart, Weber to Arizona could be right back on the table.

Otherwise: I wonder if a straight-up Weber for Shayne Gostisbehere might be doable. 5M in real cash left on both their contracts. Habs need bodies on D anyways.

 

[RationalExpectations]

So if that deal now falls apart, Weber to Arizona could be right back on the table.

Otherwise: I wonder if a straight-up Weber for Shayne Gostisbehere might be doable. 5M in real cash left on both their contracts. Habs need bodies on D anyways.

Gostisbehere has turned it around (39 points o/w 10 goals). UFA at next TDL could very well fetch a high pick, why trade him for dead weight ?
Weber is going to cost something to dump, the question is what ? Absolute ceiling should be 2nd - 4th (what Little cost if we consider Smith as having similar to McBain value) so that's a good news, now it should cost less since he takes more cap but less actual salary for ARI. Now WPG was not desperate to move cap, the Habs may very well be during the summer depending who else they can move.

 

[TBF1972]

If they on LTIR long term, league should force retirement.

if they on long term injured reserve long term

what about: if a team has a dump fan base, league should relegate them to the ahl.

 

[pth2]

Gostisbehere has turned it around (39 points o/w 10 goals). UFA at next TDL could very well fetch a high pick, why trade him for dead weight ?
Weber is going to cost something to dump, the question is what ? Absolute ceiling should be 2nd - 4th (what Little cost if we consider Smith as having similar to McBain value) so that's a good news, now it should cost less since he takes more cap but less actual salary for ARI. Now WPG was not desperate to move cap, the Habs may very well be during the summer depending who else they can move.

Damn. I thought his stats looked too good this season.

I'm hoping the Habs can move Weber for someone who takes up cap space equal to his actual salary, which would be a positive for Phoenix (ie, they reach the floor for less actual cash) and the Habs who'd get cap room. We just need to find someone who is horribly overpaid.

 

[Captain97]

The league should just create a subsection of LTIR for players with career ending injuries.

call it say CEIR (career ending injury retirement) or something and not have it count agains the cap. The fact that it does is incredibly stupid.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The league should just create a subsection of LTIR for players with career ending injuries.

call it say CEIR (career ending injury retirement) or something and not have it count agains the cap. The fact that it does is incredibly stupid.

It's all connected to the overall 50/50 revenue split and year/year escrow. This was the biggest cap circumventing contract and how does it affect their overall 50/50 revenue split? Not sure and there are insurance at play as well. I always wondered about insurance rates when both guys like Weber and Price go on LTIR. How is that affecting 50/50 revenue split and escrow? Very difficult to nail down

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Hughes said multiple teams were interested. I'm guessing aside from Arizona, Buffalo and Ottawa. Buffalo is $40m under next year's cap with no real big signings. They were forced to trade for Boychuk's contract this year to ensure they didn't go below the floor. Boychuk's contract is up, and next year's floor will be higher if cap goes up by $1m as rumoured.

They keep Weber for 2 years as they play their cheap ELC youngsters then flip him to the next rebuilding team that needs to reach cap floor.

 

[admiralcadillac]

So, if he indeed is getting traded and likely to Arizona, what about:

Montreal gets:
Chychrun

Arizona gets:
Weber
2022 MTL 1st unprotected

Chychrun might be better than any D in the 2022 draft but the Habs are looking to draft a star to support the offense.

 

[Djp]

Players on LTIR always count against the cap.

What putting a player on LTIR does is allow you to exceed the cap. This is why performance bonuses and LTIR's don't mix well, and even LTIR and trade deadline as you're not banking cap.

Let's say the cap was 85M, a team going into the season has 80M in cap plus a player who could get an additional 3.5M in bonuses. No worries here as you're at most seeing 83.5M, so no overages next season. If the team wanted to, assuming the trade deadline was 2/3 through the season, they could acquire a 15M cap hit player (with only 5M of his cap counting) and be compliant. In that case any bonuses above 85M would be deferred to next season's cap.

Now if that same team were to acquire a lameduck LTIR player in the offseason with a 6M cap and never going to play again. They would first get to 85M by assigning a player or two to the AHL keeping as close to 85M as possible, then put the player on LTIR, the team would now be able to have a cap of 91M. However, in doing so, at the end of the season all the performance bonuses that player made up to 3.5M count against next season. At the trade deadline, instead of that 15M cap player, they could only acquire a 6M cap hit player.

no

each team has a 7.5% buffer for performance bonuses and LTIR stuff. Amount Exceeding this 7.5% rolls over to the next year. 7.5% of cap is a little over $6M

 

[Colezuki]

no

each team has a 7.5% buffer for performance bonuses and LTIR stuff. Amount Exceeding this 7.5% rolls over to the next year. 7.5% of cap is a little over $6M

Well this isn’t true, because If it was why isn’t Tampa in cap hell this year with kucherov last year. LTIr can be made larger but your right on performance bonuses

 

[CupInSIX]

Hughes said multiple teams were interested. I'm guessing aside from Arizona, Buffalo and Ottawa. Buffalo is $40m under next year's cap with no real big signings. They were forced to trade for Boychuk's contract this year to ensure they didn't go below the floor. Boychuk's contract is up, and next year's floor will be higher if cap goes up by $1m as rumoured.

They keep Weber for 2 years as they play their cheap ELC youngsters then flip him to the next rebuilding team that needs to reach cap floor.

Probably names like Okposo, Murray, White, Ladd, Ritchie going the other way.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Did it get moved today?

According to Steve Dangle, Montreal and Arizona had a Weber trade agreed upon, but NHL nixed it because of the potential for bad "PR".

Yet somehow Datsyuk, Hossa contracts were perfectly ok.

Also, before last night's Sens game, it was reported that Ottawa was close to sending Colin White to Montreal, but Habs decided against it at last moment. My guess is there was something around White for Weber. I can see how that works for ole cheapo Melnyk.

During their TD press conference, Hughes said they came extremely close to trading Weber, multiple teams were interested, and they will revisit things post-season.