We must win the division if we want to make a run.

[Clark4Ever]

The path of least resistance is fine and all, but a championship team wins any way it has to get to 16 wins.

This.

Not to mention, it's not like facing Carey Price in the first round would be the path of least resistance.

 

[Gary Nylund]

man you are demanding.

Save percentage

4. CBJ 91.30
21. TOR 90.10

Goals Against per 60

4. CBJ 2.57
25. TOR 3.12

Expected Goals Against per 60

2. CBJ 2.40
20. TOR 2.88

Goals For per 60

4. TOR 3.35
29. CBJ 2.53

Expected Goals For per 60

3. TOR 3.09
28. CBJ 2.56

Not demanding, just curious. And if you're going to compare teams using stats, is makes sense to me to be consistent in which ones we use. Over the course of a season these expected numbers seem kind of useless as well, just look at the goal differential, that'll tell you more then all these expected numbers put together. JMHO.

I thought we were huge favourites against them. Sure, we'd struggled mightily during the year, but we'd also been snakebitten by injuries and outrageously bad backup goaltending from Hutchinson. Rielly and Muzzin missed a ton of time, and without our top two defenders for big portions of the year we didn't have the depth to cover off. Going into the playoffs we were healthy, had a good backup (though they rarely play in the playoffs) and our roster dumpstered theirs on paper. There was tons of optimism and frankly, we should have won that series.

Ultimately, we didn't. I don't see why we have to re-imagine history to say that we weren't favourites. We were and we lost. Hot goalie, bad luck, bad goalie, blah blah blah. Doesn't really matter in the end, we should have won and we didn't. Doesn't matter at all for how they do this year, though if we bow out early again I imagine there will be one or two core pieces shuffled.

I agree completely. We were favourites and we should have won. I love how so many people are making excuses for our utter failure to score - they're a really good defensive team and so on. I guess we have our excuse all ready for this season, if we play a team that's good defensively (which is inevitable) then oh well, what can we do.

 

[Cpt Maple Leaf]

The team should be comfortable taking on any team in the division so I wouldn’t worry too much about who we draw to start. It is how we finish against the more dangerous teams deeper in the playoffs. That being said, they better not take anyone lightly or they will be spectators yet again.

 

[GrizzGreen]

Oilers offense is insane and we'd be cocky to suggest 3 games in the first half of the season mattered in the playoffs. Absolutely terrifying trying to stop them.

They got stomped by the hawks last year. Leafs will be fine.

 

[zeke]

Not demanding, just curious. And if you're going to compare teams using stats, is makes sense to me to be consistent in which ones we use. Over the course of a season these expected numbers seem kind of useless as well, just look at the goal differential, that'll tell you more then all these expected numbers put together. JMHO.



I agree completely. We were favourites and we should have won. I love how so many people are making excuses for our utter failure to score - they're a really good defensive team and so on. I guess we have our excuse all ready for this season, if we play a team that's good defensively (which is inevitable) then oh well, what can we do.

Why did you ask me to get the numbers if all you cared about was goal differential?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Why did you ask me to get the numbers if all you cared about was goal differential?

I was just curious why you posted one set of numbers to show that we were the best team in our division, and then cherry picked only a couple of them when comparing us to CLB.

I also didn't say goal differential is "all I care about".

 

[zeke]

I was just curious why you posted one set of numbers to show that we were the best team in our division, and then cherry picked only a couple of them when comparing us to CLB.

I also didn't say goal differential is "all I care about".

Sorry if I don't respond to every request of yours with the full stats pack.

My bad.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sorry if I don't respond to every request of yours with the full stats pack.

My bad.

I didn't ask you for any stats, I asked you why you used one set of numbers to compare us to teams in our division and then cherry picked a different set of numbers when comparing us to CLB. Usually when people are inconsistent in that way it's agenda driven, that's all.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

While it's true you have to beat many strong teams en route to a Cup, I understand where OP is coming from. The Oilers and Jets each have X-factors that could be the difference makers in a series and I'd rather only face one of those in the playoffs. Hellebuyck can steal a series on his own, and while we've had success against McDavid and Draisaitl in shutting them down, that may not last in the post-season, but maybe this upcoming series will make me more confident.

In any case it's still not set in stone that the first three slots will be us, Edmonton, and Winnipeg. As much as they've struggled Montreal is only 3 points behind Winnipeg with one game in hand, and 5 points behind Edmonton with three games in hand. Really I think it's just important that the Leafs focus on finishing in first and worrying about potential matchups later. Would rather secure home ice for the first two rounds than worry about how to avoid certain teams.

 

[Deebo]

I agree completely. We were favourites and we should have won. I love how so many people are making excuses for our utter failure to score - they're a really good defensive team and so on. I guess we have our excuse all ready for this season, if we play a team that's good defensively (which is inevitable) then oh well, what can we do.

Just one opinion but I didn't view the leafs as favourites going into that series. For the last year and half coming into that series they had been 15th overall in the NHL in PT%, practically tied with Columbus. Over the same strech they were somewhere in the bottom 2-3 among playoff teams in goals against per game and the Leafs had struggled against teams like that play like Columbus in the past. I saw that the leafs were being portrayed as favourites by some, but I didn't buy it. I didn't understand why team that had been playing so inconsistenly for such a long time would have been viewed that way. In think, it was an even match and it went the distance.

People can talk about the leafs roster being on paper favourites, but in my opinion their on ice performance over a year and half didn't support them being favoured.


The Leafs appear to be much better defensivley this season, so hopefully one of the goalies can provide the type of goaltending they need to go on a run and they can sustain this better defensive play into the playoffs.

 

[zeke]

I didn't ask you for any stats, I asked you why you used one set of numbers to compare us to teams in our division and then cherry picked a different set of numbers when comparing us to CLB. Usually when people are inconsistent in that way it's agenda driven, that's all.

Yes, it's my duty to spit out any stats you demand of me.

My bad

 

[Mr Hockey]

I didn't ask you for any stats, I asked you why you used one set of numbers to compare us to teams in our division and then cherry picked a different set of numbers when comparing us to CLB. Usually when people are inconsistent in that way it's agenda driven, that's all.

lol, yea he is very selective and agenda driven when he posts stats on here, and he often doesn't understand the context

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Jets and Oiles are too dangerous to have to take out two of them. I'm not saying we can't do it, but this is where Dubas talked about putting ourselves in the best position to win.

Oilers offense is insane and we'd be cocky to suggest 3 games in the first half of the season mattered in the playoffs. Absolutely terrifying trying to stop them.

Jets we saw what they can do. They burn us on all chances against and have a insane goalie.

Avoiding them in round 1 and letting one take out the other is the ideal plan. It's MUCH more preferable to take on one of Calgary / Montreal in round 1 because we can beat them. We outclass them in 7 games IMO,

If we end up in 2nd or 3rd, it's going to be real hard to get out of the division IMO.

Oilers will be an easy out just like last year ... no defense and goaler teams never win anything in da playoffs ... still don't even think Oilers will make it to da dance ... now da Jets we agree on ... when you have world best goaler you can win ... and don't like Price on Habs either ... Price is a world class vet and I still remember how he single handedly beat Pens last playoffs ... i think we end up first and Jets and Habs will dual it out in 1st round ... then we take on whoever wins that 7 gamer ...

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

I don't think seeding will matter in the end. Just get in and show that you are better than everyone else in this division

 

[AvroArrow]

I'm not sold on the Oilers, the Jets are the 2nd best team in the division IMO. Lethal top 6, best goalie in the league. As we saw, Helly can steal games by himself. Edmonton is a 2 man show. Harass McDavid and Drai = Win. Barrie is still garbage, he's been glued to McDavid and since that point his point totals have skyrocketed. Their D is terrible and they have no depth, legit 2 man show. Jets are a far more dangerous team especially if Helly gets hot come playoff time. Montreal/Calgary are decent but we should win those matchups. Jets are the only team I'm concerned about going against. Scheifele/PLD/Ehlers/Connor can be every bit as good as Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares. I think we'll run into them in the post-season regardless of where we finish, beating them is going to be the biggest challenge in the North.

 

[Gary Nylund]

In your earlier post you listed many more stats (list below), why not list them all when comparing us so CLB instead of just picking 3 of them?

man you are demanding.

Not demanding, just curious. And if you're going to compare teams using stats, is makes sense to me to be consistent in which ones we use.

Why did you ask me to get the numbers if all you cared about was goal differential?

I was just curious why you posted one set of numbers to show that we were the best team in our division, and then cherry picked only a couple of them when comparing us to CLB.

I also didn't say goal differential is "all I care about".

Sorry if I don't respond to every request of yours with the full stats pack.

My bad.

I didn't ask you for any stats, I asked you why you used one set of numbers to compare us to teams in our division and then cherry picked a different set of numbers when comparing us to CLB. Usually when people are inconsistent in that way it's agenda driven, that's all.

Yes, it's my duty to spit out any stats you demand of me.

My bad

You seem to be confused. It's OK Zeke, you don't have to do anything.

lol, yea he is very selective and agenda driven when he posts stats on here, and he often doesn't understand the context

This last sequence does seem to have him baffled.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Why should we be scared of any of the teams with in our division. no matter who we play in all 4 rounds if we make it far. it's likely going to be a tough series. bring on whoever I dont care.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Just one opinion but I didn't view the leafs as favourites going into that series. For the last year and half coming into that series they had been 15th overall in the NHL in PT%, practically tied with Columbus. Over the same strech they were somewhere in the bottom 2-3 among playoff teams in goals against per game and the Leafs had struggled against teams like that play like Columbus in the past. I saw that the leafs were being portrayed as favourites by some, but I didn't buy it. I didn't understand why team that had been playing so inconsistenly for such a long time would have been viewed that way. In think, it was an even match and it went the distance.

People can talk about the leafs roster being on paper favourites, but in my opinion their on ice performance over a year and half didn't support them being favoured.

The Leafs appear to be much better defensivley this season, so hopefully one of the goalies can provide the type of goaltending they need to go on a run and they can sustain this better defensive play into the playoffs.

If you saw it as being that close then well done, you nailed it. I thought we deserved to be solid favourites myself, so did the bookies though I can't remember for sure what the odds were. I think they might have been about 3-2 which is very substantial but I might be remembering that wrong.

It was hard to handicap since both teams had all those injuries during the season. I think many of us thought that the CLB players that were injured just weren't as good as our guys that were injured (makes sense to me) so we'd benefit more from being healthy. Didn't really work out that way though as we all know.

 

[Buds17]

If you saw it as being that close then well done, you nailed it. I thought we deserved to be solid favourites myself, so did the bookies though I can't remember for sure what the odds were. I think they might have been about 3-2 which is very substantial but I might be remembering that wrong.

It was hard to handicap since both teams had all those injuries during the season. I think many of us thought that the CLB players that were injured just weren't as good as our guys that were injured (makes sense to me) so we'd benefit more from being healthy. Didn't really work out that way though as we all know.

I essentially viewed that play-in series as a pick'em. I could understand viewing the Leafs as favourites though after previous series against the likes of Washington and Boston.

 

[Auston 316]

No, we mustn’t.

 

[keonsbitterness]

It would be nice, but hardly a must. Too many division and overall winners have failed or outright bombed in the playoffs.

 

[HolyCrap]

Just win. Don’t forget the deepest team in the league is underperforming. When the Habs start actually trying they are gonna be a force. The are just a deeper Tampa team.

 

[LeafGrief]

With some of the posts discussing our loss to Columbus, I do feel the need to point out that the Lightning put up 128 points in 18-19 and got swept in the first round. The fact that it was the Blue Jackets is irrelevant to my point: that winning your division doesn't mean much and even elite teams can lose series to underdogs. If we play our series last year against Columbus 100 times, I'd bet we'd have won it ~65 times. If Tavares had scored instead of hitting the post early in game 5, I think we had it. Ultimately, we lost and that's the only thing that matters, but it is important to recognize what factors were in our control and those that weren't. There's only so much we can do about a goalie standing on his head like Korpisalo did in key games. There are things that we could address about team defense, depth, and grit, which I think Dubas did a good job with in the offseason. The Lightning didn't dynamite their core and start over, they made sure to add some depth and grit, tinkering around the edges. Hopefully our tinkering will give us similar results in our series (plural) this year.

I suppose the point is that while winning and losing is the only thing that matters at the end of the day, it's not the only thing that you should base your analysis and decision making on when looking at the team. Our playoffs this year will be judged on wins and losses, but how we play those games will be part of what determines where we go from there. I'm rather hoping they keep it simple and win them all

 

[darrylsittler27]

We just don't Winnipeg first round. Dubois killed us last year.

 

[34]

We will smash Edmonton in a playoff series easily. Shut McDavid down and Draisaitl disappears. That team had zero depth. To be honest, I hope we get them 1st round to shut up all the annoying Oiler fans on the main board.


Winnipeg will be a much tougher opponent. Very deep team with the best goaltending in the division. The Leafs can still beat them in a series though.