Speculation: We have issues - POLE

[ManofSteel55]

I'm on the fence on where to vote for here. If a new starting goalie counts as major surgery, then that's my vote. I think a top 4 D and a starting goalie would go a long way to making us into a favorite this year.

 

[K1984]

There's plenty of little stretches in his career where Leon has been steaming hot ass offensively and legitimately bad defensively (like not as a +/- abberation) and McDavid has been the one carrying the team on his own, get the f*** outta here with that like you selectively choose to forget all of those stretches ("why are you so pissy Leon?").

McDavid is still objectively producing at over a PPG, that's not a "bad stretch", if your bad stretch is "I'm only scoring at a Sasha Barkov/Matthew Tkachuk rate offensively, man this is terrible" all that means is you're the best player in the world. If 1.4+ ppg is your freaking "down season", lol all that says it you're probably one of the 3 best players ever, period.

Yep, Leon has been bad at times too in his career. I'm not saying otherwise.

Doesn't change that at the moment, McDavid is not playing good hockey and it has zero whatsoever to do with his teammates, the goalie, management, the coach, the month of the year, 4 Nations, Matthews, Marner, Mackinnon, or any of the other laundry list of excuses made for him in this thread.

He's playing poorly right now. Is what it is. Would be nice if he could find a way to work out of it here soon, because it's getting worse before it gets better.

 

[Soundwave]

Yep, Leon has been bad at times too in his career. I'm not saying otherwise.

Doesn't change that at the moment, McDavid is not playing good hockey and it has zero whatsoever to do with his teammates, the goalie, management, the coach, the month of the year, 4 Nations, Matthews, Marner, Mackinnon, or any of the other laundry list of excuses made for him in this thread.

He's playing poorly right now. Is what it is. Would be nice if he could find a way to work out of it here soon, because it's getting worse before it gets better.

He's playing a 1.09 ppg over the last two months which is an All-Star level, Oiler fans just have a skewed perception of what "normal" is because they are ridiculously spoiled. People think 1.5 ppg is just "normal regular production" when that's ridiculous.

The goals against, I'm not seeing much that is his fault when I'm watching the actual games and it's backed up by the fact that anyone today can pull up any game's highlights and see who was at fault for a GA.

We've looked at the 3 previous losses, here's the other loss before that one to Toronto, again lets have an honest look:



GA1: Garbage goal by Stuart Skinner, an NHL starter has to save that.
GA2: PP goal, Skinner could've had that though not a great rebound
GA3: Another PP goal, another bad rebound by Skinner right into the slot area
GA4: Marner dangles through RNH, Hyman and Kulak, Skinner could've saved this too

That's 22 goals against in the last 4 losses, I don't count a single goal that McDavid really was at fault on. If I'm biased then it should be very easy to look at these highlights and easily pick out where McDavid is at fault, but no one it touching that because there is nothing. Also seeing a lot of patterns here ... brutal PK, D who are getting caught high constantly, bad play from RNH, lots of shitty soft goals allowed by bad goalies, Evan Bouchard having a turnover festival.

 

[K1984]

He's playing a 1.09 ppg over the last two months which is an All-Star level, Oiler fans just have a skewed perception of what "normal" is because they are ridiculously spoiled. People think 1.5 ppg is just "normal regular production" when that's ridiculous.

The goals against, I'm not seeing much that is his fault when I'm watching the actual games and it's backed up by the fact that anyone today can pull up any game's highlights and see who was at fault for a GA.

We've looked at the 3 previous losses, here's the other loss before that one to Toronto, again lets have an honest look:



GA1: Garbage goal by Stuart Skinner, an NHL starter has to save that.
GA2: PP goal, Skinner could've had that though not a great rebound
GA3: Another PP goal, another bad rebound by Skinner right into the slot area
GA4: Marner dangles through RNH, Hyman and Kulak, Skinner could've saved this too

That's 22 goals against in the last 4 losses, I don't count a single goal that McDavid really was at fault on. If I'm biased then it should be very easy to look at these highlights and easily pick out where McDavid is at fault, but no one it touching that because there is nothing. Also seeing a lot of patterns here ... brutal PK, D who are getting caught high constantly, bad play from RNH, lots of shitty soft goals allowed by bad goalies, Evan Bouchard having a turnover festival.

Ugh.

He's producing literally zero offence 5v5. That is playing as big, if not bigger a role in the awful results than picking through what goals were his fault or not. There are two sides to the equation, and being the 13th highest scoring 5v5 player on the team over the last month is not an "all star" result for him. Kulak is ahead of him. Tied with Connor Brown. You can call this acceptable if you want, but I won't. The players you're blaming for his play are outscoring him.

Leon's on the ice for GAs too that aren't his fault, but he is scoring and producing offence and winning his shifts in the other end. That's why he's -1 and McDavid is -11.

Not complicated.

 

[Soundwave]

Ugh.

He's producing literally zero offence 5v5. That is playing as big, if not bigger a role in the awful results than picking through what goals were his fault or not. There are two sides to the equation, and being the 13th highest scoring 5v5 player on the team is not an "all star" result for him.

Leon's on the ice for GAs too that aren't his fault, but he is scoring and producing offence and winning his shifts in the other end. That's why he's -1 and McDavid is -11.

Not complicated.

A Stanley Cup caliber team shouldn't fall apart completely because 1 player isn't producing for a stretch.

Do the Leafs fall apart when Matthews isn't scoring? They even seem to manage when both Matthews and Marner aren't going OK. Why do their role players still show up and not phone it in those kinds of games?

McDavid shouldn't have to always be playing at a 1.4++ ppg level for this team to be good, all players go through some down stretches and should go through down stretches in an 82 game season. The expectation that that can't ever happen is frankly ridiculous. Players like Crosby and Ovechkin even in their primes had stretches like this many times.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

Soooo....
Were old soft and slow....were up a Pole? Stan had better get on it! LOL...sorry a bit of dark humor in my critic.

 

[K1984]

A Stanley Cup caliber team shouldn't fall apart completely because 1 player isn't producing for a stretch.

Do the Leafs fall apart when Matthews isn't scoring? They even seem to manage when both Matthews and Marner aren't going OK.

McDavid shouldn't have to always be playing at a 1.4++ ppg level for this team to be good, all players go through some down stretches and should go through down stretches in an 82 game season. The expectation that that can't ever happen is frankly ridiculous. Players like Crosby and Ovechkin even in their primes had stretches like this many times.

Let's try to keep the goal posts in once place here.

I've never said that everyone else is playing well. They aren't. Simply said McDavid is playing awful hockey, and he is. Teammates, 4 Nations, Matthews/Mackinnon/Marner, the goalies, management, the coach, "pacing himself," etc, etc, etc. Don't change that.

Connor McDavid is not playing well right now, and hasn't since the turn of the calendar, and ESPECIALLY lately. It's' really as simple as that and I don't understand why some need to twist themselves up denying that plain reality. He's even said as much himself.

 

[Soundwave]

Let's try to keep the goal posts in once place here.

I've never said that everyone else is playing well. They aren't. Simply said McDavid is playing awful hockey, and he is. Teammates, 4 Nations, Matthews/Mackinnon/Marner, the goalies, management, the coach, "pacing himself," etc, etc, etc. Don't change that.

Connor McDavid is not playing well right now, and hasn't since the turn of the calendar, and ESPECIALLY lately. It's' really as simple as that and I don't understand why some need to twist themselves up denying that plain reality. He's even said as much himself.

1.09 ppg is not "awful" hockey, it is merely down to "just an All-Star level" from "best player ever".

Don't get it twisted.

One guy had the expectation on an entire country and the greatest legacy in the history of the sport (Wayne to Mario to Sid) riding on his shoulders in that tournament, guys like RNH and Nurse had the stress of which all inclusive resort in Cabo they were going to.

Like I'm sorry, but this ain't the f***ing same shit. The other guys on this team should be ashamed of themselves that this is how they conduct themselves after a break of any kind.

They should instead have been operating on the concept of "y'know Connor will be tired coming out of this break, it's on us to give him some run for a change" ... but this team .... lol. You got your answer on how they take a challenge like that.

 

[K1984]

1.09 ppg is not "awful" hockey, it is merely down to "just an All-Star level" from "best player ever".

Don't get it twisted.

One guy had the expectation on an entire country and the greatest legacy in the history of the sport (Wayne to Mario to Sid) riding on his shoulders in that tournament, guys like RNH and Nurse had the stress of which all inclusive resort in Cabo they were going to.

Like I'm sorry, but this ain't the f***ing same shit. The other guys on this team should be ashamed of themselves that this is how they conduct themselves after a break of any kind.

They should instead have been operating on the concept of "y'know Connor will be tired coming out of this break, it's on us to give him some run for a change" ... but this team .... lol. You got your answer on how they take a challenge like that.

The 4 Nations isn't relevant to this conversation. Same with the other excuses that you keep barfing out even though they aren't relevant to a pretty simple question.

2 even strength points over the last 10 games is not all star hockey from a #1C no matter how much you want it to be.

 

[Soundwave]

The 4 Nations isn't relevant to this conversation. Same with the other excuses that you keep barfing out even though they aren't relevant to a pretty simple question.

2 even strength points over the last 9 games is not all star hockey from a #1C no matter how much you want it to be.

Well next time any other player puts up all the numbers McDavid has the last 7-8 years here, carried the entire team on his back year-in, year-out, dragged them out of a 0-3 hole in the Finals ... they too can have a little leeway.

2 ES points in 9 games by the f***ing way happens to a lot of star players here and there. You really f***ing think that never has happened to Crosby or Ovechkin even in their primes? Because you lack serious context if that is what your understanding is.

The only reason maybe Wayne and Mario may not have a stretch like that (and even they probably do) is because they played against freaking ECHL goalies with tiny goal pads in the 80s were no one played any defense whatsoever. McDavid actually plays in an era where coaching and defense actually happens, he'd score 200+ points every year if you put him against that level of competition.

 

[K1984]

Well next time any other player puts up all the numbers McDavid has the last 7-8 years here, carried the entire team on his back year-in, year-out, dragged them out of a 0-3 hole in the Finals ... they too can have a little leeway.

2 ES points in 9 games by the f***ing way happens to a lot of star players here and there. You really f***ing think that never has happened to Crosby or Ovechkin even in their primes? Because you lack serious context if that is what your understanding is.

The only reason maybe Wayne and Mario may not have a stretch like that (and even they probably do) is because they played against freaking ECHL goalies with tiny goal pads in the 80s were no one played any defense whatsoever. McDavid actually plays in an era where coaching and defense actually happens, he'd score 200+ points every year if you put him against that level of competition.

Maybe we shouldn't look at EV - not fair as you say.

Know who has more PP points than him since Jan 1?

Patrick Kane
Clayton Keller
Lucas Raymond
Mark Stone
Dylan Larkin
Alex Debrincat
Moritz Seider
Nikita Kucherov
Dylan Strome
Matt Duchene
Ryan Nugent Hopkins
JT Miller
Nick Shmaltz
Jack Eichel
Jason Robertson
Evan Bouchard
Name Kadri
Mika Zibanejad
Filip Forsberg
Jake Guentzel
Nathan Mackinnon
Alexsander Barkov
Leon Draisaitl
David Pasternak
Matthew Tkachuk
Jesper Bratt

That's A LOT of all stars. And oh look, a few teammates that you're blaming for his play are above him too. 45th in NHL scoring over that time. Not sure how many players make the All Star game anymore, but if we're basing it on points production he'd be on the cut line at best based on his play since Jan 1.

The size of goalie's pads in the 80's isnt relevant here.

 

[Soundwave]

Maybe we shouldn't look at EV - not fair as you say.

Know who has more PP points than him since Jan 1?

Patrick Kane
Clayton Keller
Lucas Raymond
Mark Stone
Dylan Larkin
Alex Debrincat
Moritz Seider
Nikita Kucherov
Dylan Strome
Matt Duchene
Ryan Nugent Hopkins
JT Miller
Nick Shmaltz
Jack Eichel
Jason Robertson
Evan Bouchard
Name Kadri
Mika Zibanejad
Filip Forsberg
Jake Guentzel
Nathan Mackinnon
Alexsander Barkov
Leon Draisaitl
David Pasternak
Matthew Tkachuk
Jesper Bratt

That's A LOT of all stars. And oh look, a few teammates that you're blaming for his play are above him too. 45th in NHL scoring over that time. Not sure how many players make the All Star game anymore, but if we're basing it on points production he'd be on the cut line at best based on his play since Jan 1.

This happens to all star players if you want to cherry pick streches. Happens to MacKinnon, happens to Crosby and Ovechkin in their 20s. Leon has had tons of little stretches like that.

The reason you think this is so unbelievable is because you are spoiled by Connor McDavid and think this is not normal or terrible. It's not. This happens even to the best players where they'll play at around a PPG level propped up by PP production ... that's nothing news worthy or amazing anywhere else, lol.

The reason you think this is amazing is because you think McDavid level production is "normal". It's not.

1.4+ ppg in a "bad year". Are you f***ing kidding me?

 

[K1984]

This happens to all star players if you want to cherry pick streches. Happens to MacKinnon, happens to Crosby and Ovechkin in their 20s.

The reason you think this is so unbelievable is because you are spoiled by Connor McDavid and think this is not normal or terrible. It's not. This happens even to the best players where they'll play at around a PPG level propped up by PP production ... that's nothing news worthy or amazing anywhere else, lol.

The reason you think this is amazing is because you think McDavid level production is "normal". It's not.

1.4+ ppg in a "bad year". Are you f***ing kidding me?

Since Jan 1 isn't a "cherry picked" stat. Said from the start he's been playing poorly lately, and I've proven it ad nauseam.

Now you're basically agreeing with me. Yes, start players can play bad too. He's playing bad. The fact that Mackinnon and Crosby have at times in their career doesn't mean that McDavid is playing good now. He's not. I'm sorry this is a problem for you to comprehend.

 

[Soundwave]

Since Jan 1 isn't a "cherry picked" stat. Said from the start he's been playing poorly lately, and I've proven it ad nauseam.

Now you're basically agreeing with me. Yes, start players can play bad too. He's playing bad. The fact that Mackinnon and Crosby have at times in their career doesn't mean that McDavid is playing good now. He's not. I'm sorry this is a problem for you to comprehend.

In the last two months he's scored at a Barkov/Tkachuk rate ... I don't consider that "terrible". Below McDavid's standards ... sure, but that's completely normal even for superstar players, you just don't have any context because you don't realize Sid/Ovy/etc. do the same thing in their prime all the time (Leon sure as f*** has).

The plus/minus is not accurately portraying who is at fault for a whole boatload of those goals against as anyone can see with video evidence, so that is then basically a useless abberation of a stat.

And in the most intense hockey tournament since maybe 1972, Connor McDavid scores 2/4 total goals for Team Canada against the USA including the clutch series winner and fulfills the prophecy of him being the next Sidney Crosby/Mario Lemieux/Wayne Gretzky tier Canadian hockey god (at least a huge part of it) by scoring the series winner in the most hostile hockey environment possible. He can check that "golden goal" to do off his list. That goal will live forever next to Sid's 2010 and Wayne to Mario in 1987 and Henderson in 1972.

If that's your worst 2 months ... lol ... many players would bend over backwards and kiss their own ass to have that even star players.

 

[K1984]

In the last two months he's scored at a Barkov/Tkachuk rate ... I don't consider that "terrible". Below McDavid's standards ... sure, but that's completely normal even for superstar players, you just don't have any context because you don't realize Sid/Ovy/etc. do the same thing in their prime all the time (Leon sure as f*** has).

The plus/minus is not accurately portraying who is at fault for a whole boatload of those goals against as anyone can see with video evidence, so that is then basically a useless abberation of a stat.

And in the most intense hockey tournament since maybe 1972, Connor McDavid scores 2/4 total goals for Team Canada against the USA including the clutch series winner and fulfills the prophecy of him being the next Sidney Crosby/Mario Lemieux/Wayne Gretzky tier Canadian hockey god (at least a huge part of it) by scoring the series winner in the most hostile hockey environment possible. He can check that "golden goal" to do off his list.

If that's your worst 2 months ... lol ... many players would bend over backwards and kiss their own ass to have that even star players.

Repeating the same failed arguments doesn't work.

 

[Soundwave]

Repeating the same failed arguments doesn't work.

Because the arguments check out. I see you've run and hide from the plus/minus part of your debate when you probably watched the videos of the last several games and went "aw shit, he's actually not even in the picture for any of these goals against".

If one player only producing at 1.09 ppg sends a team into a down spiral, that says something about the supporting cast, not the player. Like you seem oblivious to that.

"Bu bu but he's not always producing at a sky high rate!!!" is not the gotcha you think it is. That can be said of every great player at some point, regular seasons are a slog and long, careers too for that matter.

 

[K1984]

Because the arguments check out. I see you've run and hide from the plus/minus part of your debate when you probably watched the videos of the last several games and went "aw shit, he's actually not even in the picture for any of these goals against".

If one player only producing at 1.09 ppg sends a team into a down spiral, that says something about the supporting cast, not the player. Like you seem oblivious to that.

"Bu bu but he's not always producing at a sky high rate!!!" is not the gotcha you think it is. That can be said of every great player at some point, regular seasons are a slog and long, careers too for that matter.

You seem unaware that +/- includes goals against AND goals for. Which I've highlighted repeatedly, which you have ignored.

Keep telling me about the size of goalie's pads in the 80s though.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Basically every single player except Leon and Connor Brown are having worse seasons this year than they are last year. IMO, we need decent amount of upgrades, I'll put them in bold.

RNH-Mcdavid-Hyman
Skinner-Drai-Savoie
Podkolzin-Henrique-Brown
Kapanen-Janmark-Perry

Ekholm-Bouch
Nurse-Klingberg
Kulak-Emberson

Skinner

The bottom 6 is currently an offensive black hole. Not only that- they don't forecheck particularly well, they don't hit, they are not that good defensively, and they don't drive play. Perry is the only one who is consistent, and Brown shows up once in a while, but we need at least 3, if not 4 new bottom 6 guys that do something, anything. What is their identity? Mcleod, Foegele, and Holloway were speed and forechecking demons. These guys have nothing, cardio merchants aside from Perry.

The defense was much better with Stecher than Klingberg. Every single metric shows this. Go get a real 2rd, something we haven't had since Adam Larsson left 4 years ago now! How does a contender leave a spot that crucial unfilled for 4 years? Unbelievable.

Enough has been said about goaltending. Skinner is not it. Go get someone.

 

[Soundwave]

You seem unaware that +/- includes goals against AND goals for. Which I've highlighted repeatedly, which you have ignored.

Keep telling me about the size of goalie's pads in the 80s though.

Yeah, scoring droughts happen. Even to great players. Is this news to you? Do you think scoring is easy in this league? Do you think it's easy when every team gameplans specifically for you and plays with a stick up their ass every time you're on the ice?

You have an unrealistic expectation of players.

And again, if a stretch of 1.09 ppg play (Barkov level offense) throws your team into the gutter even when you have a second superstar center ... that says more about the rest of your team that it being any kind of indictment on the best player.

All that shows me is a team that is carried by 2 players (mainly 1 really) and falls apart when they don't get near max production from said player. Which then leads to the conclusion that the rest of the team simply isn't very good.

 

[K1984]

Yeah, scoring droughts happen. Even to great players. Is this news to you? Do you think scoring is easy in this league? Do you think it's easy when every team gameplans specifically for you and plays with a stick up their ass every time you're on the ice?

You have an unrealistic expectation of players.

And again, if a stretch of 1.09 ppg play (Barkov level offense) throws your team into the gutter even when you have a second superstar center ... that says more about the rest of your team that it being any kind of indictment on the best player.

All that shows me is a team that is carried by 2 players (mainly 1 really) and falls apart when they don't get near max production from said player. Which then leads to the conclusion that the rest of the team simply isn't very good.

So is he playing well or not?

On one hand you're arguing that his poor play is ok because other players do it too, then on the other he's not actually playing poorly because Barkov has the same points or something.

Pick one.

 

[Soundwave]

So is he playing well or not?

On one hand you're arguing that his poor play is ok because other players do it too, then on the other he's not actually playing poorly because Barkov has the same points or something.

Pick one.

He's playing at a Barkov level offensively, which is below his usual standard, but it isn't bad enough to excuse the team for their play.

McDavid only being a PPG player shouldn't tank a team especially when Draisaitl is also having an MVP season.

Those being the facts then the only conclusion really is that the rest of this team is not as good as they think they are. They get carried hard by two superstars and think they're hot shit when they're actually just along for the ride.

 

[K1984]

He's playing at a Barkov level offensively, which is below his usual standard, but it isn't bad enough to excuse the team for their play.

McDavid only being a PPG player shouldn't tank a team especially when Draisaitl is also having an MVP season.

Those being the facts then the only conclusion really is that the rest of this team is not as good as they think they are. They get carried hard by two superstars and think they're hot shit when they're actually just along for the ride.

OK so he's playing poorly, but its ok because statistically he happens to be around Barkov.

Got it.

 

[Shanahanigans]

One more thing. You should be a lot angrier at the Oilers organization than you are. They are wasting a historic talent with poor management decisions like not investing in a goalie, or improving the roster. Mcdavid will go down as a top 5 player of all time, and Leon a top 50 player ever. And management after management group pissed away their career. It’s unacceptable and should make you so much angrier than you already are.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

A player I don't worry about is Connor McDavid.

This team's systems have held up in regular season play. However playoff heavy grind series hockey is different.

I'd still prioritize a top 4 d-man to help improve the top end of their defense corp but to also deepen it to fortify goal suppression. I think of defending heavy aggressive forecheck teams like Washington, Vegas, Florida as critical to playing deep series against elite teams. Kulak's been a great story moving up to 2RD responsibilities but there's been a bit of slippage in his game. Prefer him as a high end third pair guy. Tied to priority need is a tandem 1A/B goaltender. This team needs a higher floor consistency in its goaltending with ideally a guy with can elevate the ceiling into potential game stealing ability.

This team's forward group have largely underachieved. Savoie is an X-Factor that maybe mitigates the top six forward need where this team has already spent big money. Kane returns and they get some size and grit. Would like a more consistent scoring winger (or a rock 3C) but this team still ices playoff McDavid and Draisaitl so I have less worry here.

Summer big money decisions haven't worked out as imagined. So more gaps than ideal. Fortify the backend should be the priority with limited assets available to flip imo.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

One more thing. You should be a lot angrier at the Oilers organization than you are. They are wasting a historic talent with poor management decisions like not investing in a goalie, or improving the roster. Mcdavid will go down as a top 5 player of all time, and Leon a top 50 player ever. And management after management group pissed away their career. It’s unacceptable and should make you so much angrier than you already are.

We're not allowed to critique anyone who isn't Stuart Skinner around these parts, but you're right. Generational talent wasted on three afterthought GMs.