We have a GM problem
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ploppsdman
Don't stand for the Hawks. Stand for Kyle Beech.
- Feb 5, 2004
- 2,027
- 743
It's right here and I see it pop up a lot. No one gets a blank check. I do not accept "it's a rebuild" as an excuse for poor asset management.(same poor asset management reflected in last draft)
Players like Strome are EXACTLY who poor teams have to acquire/keep and hope they hit big.
Crow
Registered User
- May 19, 2014
- 5,096
- 4,066
Strome was a big bodied, slow, soft, defensively irresponsible, no motor 25 year old when we decided we had seen enough. Don’t miss him. Glad he found a productive role somewhere for his sake. If those are the exact types of players you are looking for you aren’t going to be a very good team.
WarriorofTime
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2010
- 32,785
- 22,769
Just feels like you’re looking for reasons to be angry so you can show you’re not a cheerleader or whatever.
ClydeLee
Registered User
- Mar 23, 2012
- 12,573
- 6,043
Ok, never saw that post before. O have complaints, I thought he should of been tanking harder still last year.
The assest management is short sighted in point here.
Would you rather the Hawks kept Strome and finished 5th worst overall and not gotten Bedard? Is that better assest management.
And worse picks last year, this year, next year... maybe not after that. That's a worse led rebuild.
You have to think long term. I'm more wanting to be tanking harder than Davidson, so no I don't think he deserves no blame. But no he deserves no blame for letting someone with no great likely playoff future who would worsen draft picks from staying on the team.
ColbyChaos
Ring-A-Ring-A-Ring, Ring-A-Ring-A-Ring
This doesn’t result in us getting Bedard if we kept Strome I don’t understand how this isn’t getting through to you…
hockeydoug
Registered User
- May 26, 2012
- 4,085
- 498
Toews2Bickell
It's Showtime
- Nov 24, 2013
- 23,797
- 23,703
they could've QO'd him and got an asset for him, or at least they shouldve been able to
Callidusblackhawk
Registered User
No players fit Richardson lol
They tried to trade him and nobody wanted his bum ass.
It's not like he wasn't here before and we all saw that he did not hit big here...
maybe we should give that younger Nylander brother a chance?
BHawk21
Registered User
- Mar 21, 2022
- 2,616
- 1,676
no idea what your saying.
Nobody in the league wanted Strome. We tried to trade him at the deadline. He took less than his qualifying offer if I remember correctly.
Beukeboom Fan
Registered User
Just going from memory, but at the previous trade deadline they couldn't give Strome away.
- Feb 1, 2009
- 2,825
- 4,313
If they keep Strome, they don't get Bedard. I don't know how this isn't registering with you.
statswatcher
the smartest guy in athens knows he's dumb
- Jul 27, 2022
- 727
- 1,039
just to play devil's advocate, because by no means do i want to give the impression that i am upset they lost dylan strome, but i find this appeal to the counterfactual butterfly effect thing entirely unconvincing. you could justify every move the blackhawks have ever made this way. in fact you could justify really anything that's ever happened in all of human history. after all, if adlai stevenson wins the 1952 us presidential election, who's really to say if the blackhawks get bedard? wtf, i like ike now.
ClydeLee
Registered User
- Mar 23, 2012
- 12,573
- 6,043
I find it odd to not take into account.
People complaining about Jack Skille post 2010 made little sense to me. Also, people wishing Leddy was kept in 16/17, the only 2 years he looked solid in top 4s, over like Oduya/any piece that still helped win the 15 cup is nutzo thinking.
It seems more silly thinking or child-like to me, like yes if everything good plus more good, that'd be good. But that doesn't engage any consequences or accept any. Its just fantasy land.
Actions do have consequences and differences do happen if you take different actions.
statswatcher
the smartest guy in athens knows he's dumb
- Jul 27, 2022
- 727
- 1,039
consequences matter, but when evaluating decisions in relation to their consequences it is important to consider what could (or should) have been reasonably expected when the decision was made. i find it hard to accept drafting bedard as the straightforward and predictable consequence of being rid of strome. what i mean is that just the same as i can imagine a world where they kept him, i can also very easily imagine a world where they keep him and they are still bad enough to end up with that first overall. i think the other guys are wrong to cry about this as though it were actually a problem we should be worried about, but i also think answering them with what amounts to "well the lord moves in mysterious ways, trust the plan" inspires very little confidence.
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- Feb 1, 2009
- 2,825
- 4,313
I'm not going to get into a whole "butterfly effect" debate with you. But I feel that if the Hawks had kept Strome, it's very likely that alters their draft position. And that means it's highly unlikely the draft lottery happens the same way.
a more valid question is should we have traded taylor R coming of 20 goal season with a less then league min salary or Kurashev coming off a 50 pts season. im sure if we got a taylor hall like return we would have been upset and then when there next year was a major step down IE maybe 1/2 the pts or goals and you get nothing for them. its hard to figure out the exact time to trade someone.
It's much more concrete than that in this case, and pretty easy to break down since it was the first season post-Strome and you don't have to account for multiple seasons' worth of what-ifs
The tank standings at the end of the 22-23 season:
1. Anaheim - 58 points, 13 ROW
2. Columbus - 59 points, 15 ROW
3. Chicago - 59 points, 18 ROW
4. San Jose - 60 points, 16 ROW
Ending up in 3rd to last and getting the winning lottery combination required an extremely specific placement in the standings. A single point in either direction and the Blackhawks are no longer in that slot and no longer drafting Bedard. It stands to reason that playing Strome over (take your pick of the dog shit forwards they played that year) results in at least a one point change in the standings. Repeat this exercise for Hagel, Debrincat, etc. as needed
statswatcher
the smartest guy in athens knows he's dumb
- Jul 27, 2022
- 727
- 1,039
i understand the thought process. i have no problem with the notion that the hawks sold off to tank and were rewarded with a first overall draft pick. i just believe you overstate the case to make out as though because the lottery happened to pick the third worst team that every decision which marginally contributed to that particular placement is retroactively justified with no further comment needed. like, by the same token would it have been a bad decision to trade athanasiou at the trade deadline that year because he scored the game winning goal in the pittsburgh game that put the hawks that lottery position? seems farfetched to me, but that would also seem to be what the logic demands. i think it makes far more sense to judge such a hypothetical trade on the merits presented at the time, not in retrospect with information no one could have expected with much confidence or any certainty.
Let's face it KD is not 100% accurate in his trades No GM is 100% accurate as we can see. Only fans in hindsight are 100%. The GM job is predicting human nature for the next 5 years and beyond. Thats a pretty hard thing to do. It's essentially a 50/50 shot to get it right.
I would argue that KD is probably better than 50%. Now before you say better than 50% is not good enough - I would ask someone that was a very good GM by most accounts and had a track record of being successful (not some shlub who thinks hes the man because he won his fantasy football leaugue) what his thoughts are
Theo Epstein comments on this:
Epstein: "I think it's more gratifying for the organization because of the process that's in place. Virtually any trade you make is a crapshoot. When things don't work out, people like to give us a hard time. That's their right, and I would do the same thing as a fan. But reality is that we're not shooting for perfection. In baseball, we're shooting to shift the odds of being right from maybe 50-50 to 55-45. Because we're in the business of predicting future human performance. You simply can't do that. What we try to do is put thorough processes in place with really good people and stick to our organizational ideals and try to shift the odds from 50-50 to 55-45. To me, I believe in our process. I believe in our people. We're looking to be right 55 percent of the time, especially on a midseason deal in which you're getting two months' worth of a player, and the fact that these deals have worked out make you feel really good, I think it was an important part of getting to the postseason this year. But I don't sit there and pat myself on the back and say, 'Oh, wow, we went 3 for 3, great.' Instead, I think we try to take a step back or 10,000 feet and say, 'OK, the processes we used were sound, is there any way we can improve the processes going forward and maybe shift the odds to 56 percent instead of 55 percent, and how do we learn from it and go forward? But the exact same processes we used in these deals were the same we used in the Eric Gagne deal. I think that was a good deal. It didn't work out, because he went from a really good pitcher to a really bad pitcher the second he showed up here.
I would argue that KD is probably better than 50%. Now before you say better than 50% is not good enough - I would ask someone that was a very good GM by most accounts and had a track record of being successful (not some shlub who thinks hes the man because he won his fantasy football leaugue) what his thoughts are
Theo Epstein comments on this:
Epstein: "I think it's more gratifying for the organization because of the process that's in place. Virtually any trade you make is a crapshoot. When things don't work out, people like to give us a hard time. That's their right, and I would do the same thing as a fan. But reality is that we're not shooting for perfection. In baseball, we're shooting to shift the odds of being right from maybe 50-50 to 55-45. Because we're in the business of predicting future human performance. You simply can't do that. What we try to do is put thorough processes in place with really good people and stick to our organizational ideals and try to shift the odds from 50-50 to 55-45. To me, I believe in our process. I believe in our people. We're looking to be right 55 percent of the time, especially on a midseason deal in which you're getting two months' worth of a player, and the fact that these deals have worked out make you feel really good, I think it was an important part of getting to the postseason this year. But I don't sit there and pat myself on the back and say, 'Oh, wow, we went 3 for 3, great.' Instead, I think we try to take a step back or 10,000 feet and say, 'OK, the processes we used were sound, is there any way we can improve the processes going forward and maybe shift the odds to 56 percent instead of 55 percent, and how do we learn from it and go forward? But the exact same processes we used in these deals were the same we used in the Eric Gagne deal. I think that was a good deal. It didn't work out, because he went from a really good pitcher to a really bad pitcher the second he showed up here.
Fair enough, but I think of it as less about the uninteresting exercise of justifying KD's decisions and more about considering if those moves worked out knowing what we know after the fact. It's an unbelievable stroke of luck that it worked out how it did and that isn't the GM's doing. But people who lament the loss of guys like Hagel, ADB, and Strome should reckon with the reality that keeping them almost certainly means no Bedard.
statswatcher
the smartest guy in athens knows he's dumb
- Jul 27, 2022
- 727
- 1,039
ColbyChaos
Ring-A-Ring-A-Ring, Ring-A-Ring-A-Ring
Bull shit there is a thousand things you could be doing before being that bored to play devils advocate on keeping Dylan Strome
