We can never do anything easily or can we?

[Goose]

This team isn't as good as it's record I don't think, but I don't care!

The Leafs are - finally - one of those teams that announcers always talk about that "know how to win close games." I think the whole concept of "knowing how to win close games" is complete bs, but it's nice bs when it works in your favour!

 

[Twine Tickler]

Not really. There are reasons to be concerned, that this isn't sustainable.

7th last in xGA, worse than last year. 5v5 outplayed.

The record is fantastic, and it's great considering we haven't played to that record. But, if we can improve our 5v5 and defensive play, and continue this record, that would be awesome.

People can point to... but we are finding ways to win... and yet, only two of those seven wins, have been GWG at 5v5. We are reliant on an unsustainable PP situation, for the wins.

We've seen this before, where we had a good record, but play that shouldn't result in that. They've got a lot to cleanup at this point.

There is definitely data that supports the fact that our 7-2 record is slightly fraudulent. As well as the eye test. That said, we cannot interpret the data and stack it up against all 31 teams. Its not an accurate representation IMO. The stats never "cross pollinate" . In my mind it would be as relevant as comparing NHL team stats with AHL team stats.

For example.
The leafs rank 9th worst in the NHL at xGA/60 minutes which would rank them in the bottom 1/3rd of teams league wide. However their xGA/60 is still better than 4/7 North division teams. putting them in the top 1/2 of the Division. They also rank 4th/7 on the xGF/60 in the division. Putting them in the bottom half of xGF/60 in division. Likely due to having the least amount of PP TOI/60 at 4:34/60. The next closest north division team being MTL, 5:34/60. Not to mention the fact that the Leafs are also ranked 3/7 in the north when it comes to SH TOI/60 mins.

So they are slightly above average defensively/60 compared to their peers (north div), even while spending slightly more than average time with the man down/60. and They are slightly below average offensively, although they have the least amount of PP TOI/60

to me, this data is still a little too small of a sample size to tell a full story. 1 statistical outlier in any direction could bloat or tank the data. I'd say the Leafs data is relatively accurate, because they haven't had any games get out of hand in either direction. But VAN for example outscored OTT 16-3 in 3 games this year...against the worst team in the division...and got spanked leading up to it. Their data in my mind, is completely irrelevant until they play like 30 games.

overall I agree, I would like to see the 5v5 offense improve, as I expect to see some negative regression from the PP scoring. But At the end of the day, They are finding ways to win in tight games. To me, there is no statistical representation that will do that justice.

 

[Bluelines]

I wonder if fans think we are controlling our games or if we are winning by pure individual skill?

 

[Fogelhund]

I wonder if fans think we are controlling our games or if we are winning by pure individual skill?

I think the answer to this is... yes.

Going back to the last Calgary game, we outright controlled the first period. The Leafs CAN do that at times... but it isn't very consistent yet. So controlling games "at times" is part of why there has been success.

Then, it's individual skill in the PP, that's getting those GWG (4 of 7 GWG + one in OT)..

So, I'd say a bit of both...

 

[Mess]

Winning close games is not a bad thing if you're playing the game the right way.

Its a lot better than pond hockey last goal wins and hoping to outscore your mistakes nightly based on your talent level.

More attention to detail defensively is coming at the expense of offense at 5v5 play, and then using your skilled and talented PP making the difference in close games. The only downside is that PP opportunities are not guaranteed so more offense at even strength will be needed in time. If the Leafs PP went dry we might be on the losing end of some of these 1 goal games otherwise.

 

[Ryan52]

i dont feel as confident in a 7-2 team as i thought i wouldve, but if they want to grind out wins like this all year thats fine by me as long as the results keep coming

 

[LeafsNation75]

Winning close games is not a bad thing if you're playing the game the right way.

Its a lot better than pond hockey last goal wins and hoping to outscore your mistakes nightly based on your talent level.

More attention to detail defensively is coming at the expense of offense at 5v5 play, and then using your skilled and talented PP making the difference in close games. The only downside is that PP opportunities are not guaranteed so more offense at even strength will be needed in time. If the Leafs PP went dry we might be on the losing end of some of these 1 goal games otherwise.

So in their last game do you think the refs decided to make things more even with the power plays Toronto got in the 3rd period, because they had 1 power play and Edmonton already have 5 power plays after the 2nd period.

 

[Mess]

So in their last game do you think the refs decided to make things more even with the power plays Toronto got in the 3rd period, because they had 1 power play and Edmonton already have 5 power plays after the 2nd period.

There was a questionable penalty against the Leafs in the 2nd period that was very petty and questionable that Oilers scored on, and then Leafs got a similar call in the 3rd in their favour of similar level that scored on that seemed like a make up call or an even up call.

Refs should have let both go and then the final score would have 1 goal less each.

Hockey is really silly some times with penalty calls.. Simply touch a players gloves on his stick and it a penalty and then a player standing in front can get crosschecked back and no call.

 

[LeafsNation75]

There was a questionable penalty against the Leafs in the 2nd period that was very petty and questionable that Oilers scored on, and then Leafs got a similar call in the 3rd in their favour of similar level that scored on that seemed like a make up call or an even up call.

Refs should have let both go and then the final score would have 1 goal less each.

If Kerfoot isn't called for that questionable penalty in the 2nd period Edmonton never gets that 5v3 when Hyman got called for tripping McDavid and it resulted in Draisaitl's 1st goal. So the Leafs should have went into the 3rd period up 2-0 instead of 2-1.

 

[Bluelines]

Winning close games is not a bad thing if you're playing the game the right way.

Its a lot better than pond hockey last goal wins and hoping to outscore your mistakes nightly based on your talent level.

More attention to detail defensively is coming at the expense of offense at 5v5 play, and then using your skilled and talented PP making the difference in close games. The only downside is that PP opportunities are not guaranteed so more offense at even strength will be needed in time. If the Leafs PP went dry we might be on the losing end of some of these 1 goal games otherwise.

I would agree, the last team I remember that controlled the game form puck drop was the NJ Devils with Stevens, Niedermeyer, Danekyo, granted they had 3 future HOFers on their blueline. This team is young and they probably don't understand the concept of how to dictate play.

Maybe its just the Woe is me Leaf fan in me but I don't get the impression that the Leafs are actually in control of the outcome but rather they are plying a game of we hope we did enough to win. I do however feel oddly comforted when I see Hyman on the ice with a one goal lead and 1 minute left in the game.

 

[Mess]

I would agree, the last team I remember that controlled the game form puck drop was the NJ Devils with Stevens, Niedermeyer, Danekyo, granted they had 3 future HOFers on their blueline. This team is young and they probably don't understand the concept of how to dictate play.

Maybe its just the Woe is me Leaf fan in me but I don't get the impression that the Leafs are actually in control of the outcome but rather they are plying a game of we hope we did enough to win. I do however feel oddly comforted when I see Hyman on the ice with a one goal lead and 1 minute left in the game.

What I have been noticing with this year in terms of your point "actually in control" is that Leafs have good periods where they dominate the shot and clock with possession and pressure which does give the impression that things are well in hand. Then in the next period the momentum seems to change and suddenly the opposition is out-shooting, out-hitting and out-playing our Leafs and winning all the puck battles.

I'm sure you know what I mean when you see Leafs coming out in the 1st and running up the shot totals 12-3 [example] and leading 2-0 and in full control, then the 2nd period starts and this happened in both Calgary and Edmonton recent games where the opposition runs up the shots out-shooting our Leafs 15-5 and dominating in Leafs zone and closing the score. Then Leafs need to find a way in the 3rd to change that and its been their PP that has often come through that results in a 1 goal win in the end. This is where I agree again with you in that this positive outcome is more luck then control as PP are not guaranteed in games, and do run hot and cold at times. I might say the odds are almost 50/50 that Leafs come out on the wrong end a 1 goal final score when games play like this as it sometimes a timely goalie save that makes it the final outcome good or bad.

Not sure how much this cause and effect is player personnel related overall, but having more players like Hyman that give 100% effort at all times and are reliable defensively and work hard offensively tends to give one more peace as a fan knowing that Leafs are in more control of their own destiny and at least playing the opposition at par at 5v5.

 

[LeafsNation75]

What I have been noticing with this year in terms of your point "actually in control" is that Leafs have good periods where they dominate the shot and clock with possession and pressure which does give the impression that things are well in hand. Then in the next period the momentum seems to change and suddenly the opposition is out-shooting, out-hitting and out-playing our Leafs and winning all the puck battles.

I'm sure you know what I mean when you see Leafs coming out in the 1st and running up the shot totals 12-3 [example] and leading 2-0 and in full control, then the 2nd period starts and this happened in both Calgary and Edmonton recent games where the opposition runs up the shots out-shooting our Leafs 15-5 and dominating in Leafs zone and closing the score. Then Leafs need to find a way in the 3rd to change that and its been their PP that has often come through that results in a 1 goal win in the end. This is where I agree again with you in that this positive outcome is more luck then control as PP are not guaranteed in games, and do run hot and cold at times.

Not sure how much this cause and effect is player personnel related overall, but having more players like Hyman that give 100% effort at all times and are reliable defensively and work hard offensively tends to give one more peace as a fan knowing that Leaf are in more control and at least playing the opposition at par at 5v5.

In the 2nd period against Edmonton when they had that 2-0 lead, getting called for 4 penalties in a row didn't help and is the reason why they weren't as dominate compared to the 1st period.

 

[Mess]

In the 2nd period against Edmonton when they had that 2-0 lead, getting called for 4 penalties in a row didn't help and is the reason why they weren't as dominate compared to the 1st period.

Penalties are often a fallout effect of being dominated by the opposition, where you end up taking a penalty after being tired and trapped in your own zone interference, holding, tripping etc, or a puck over glass panic to relieve pressure.

Teams can generate their own PP opportunities via game play and style and pressure. (when the Refs are calling a good game).

Possession is the key here are its harder to take penalties when you have control of the puck, as that is what draws penalties. When you're running around defensively chasing the play is when you take penalties and allow the opposition to gain control of the game.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Penalties are often a fallout effect of being dominated by the opposition, where you end up taking a penalty after being tired and trapped in your own zone interference, holding, tripping etc, or a puck over glass panic to relieve pressure.

Teams can generate their own PP opportunities via game play and style and pressure. (when the Refs are calling a good game).

Possession is the key here are its harder to take penalties when you have control of the puck, as that is what draws penalties. When you're running around defensively chasing the play is when you take penalties and allow the opposition to gain control of the game.

The Leafs most recent game is not an example where the refs called a good game, especially when you look at the penalty Kerfoot got in the 2nd period because it eventually lead to the Oilers getting that 5v3 and scoring to make it 2-1.

 

[Mess]

The Leafs most recent game is not an example where the refs called a good game, especially when you look at the penalty Kerfoot got in the 2nd period because it eventually lead to the Oilers getting that 5v3 and scoring to make it 2-1.

Ethan Bear - slashing penalty on Matthews in the 3rd period that eventually lead to Matthews scoring the GWG on the PP was just as soft a call as Kerfoot slashing in the 2nd period was. IMO

Penalties have a way of evening out and in this case was a perfect example of a Ref calling both as even up almost instead of letting both go and play on.

 

[zeke]

Oh hey its the posters that have told us that wins and points are the only thing that matters for the last few years now telling us to worry about them not dominating possession enough.

Curious.

 

[Menzinger]

I would agree, the last team I remember that controlled the game form puck drop was the NJ Devils with Stevens, Niedermeyer, Danekyo, granted they had 3 future HOFers on their blueline. This team is young and they probably don't understand the concept of how to dictate play.

Maybe its just the Woe is me Leaf fan in me but I don't get the impression that the Leafs are actually in control of the outcome but rather they are plying a game of we hope we did enough to win. I do however feel oddly comforted when I see Hyman on the ice with a one goal lead and 1 minute left in the game.

Though if you've got to think back nearly 20 years for the best example of what you ideally would like to see, seems as if the Leafs aren't uniquely different than their main peer competitors.

As per your earlier questions of is it team control vs indivual skill - its likely both. Obviously the high skilled guys have the ability to make things happen on their own, and so they do (hence why they make those salaries) but theres definitely been a decent amount of systems focused improvements. I feel way more comfortable with the team protecting the lead now than I have in thr last few seasons.

Sometimes things have looked sloppy, but that's seemingly to be expected with so many new faces on the team and no proper preseason to iron out the wrinkles

 

[Bluelines]

What I have been noticing with this year in terms of your point "actually in control" is that Leafs have good periods where they dominate the shot and clock with possession and pressure which does give the impression that things are well in hand. Then in the next period the momentum seems to change and suddenly the opposition is out-shooting, out-hitting and out-playing our Leafs and winning all the puck battles.

I'm sure you know what I mean when you see Leafs coming out in the 1st and running up the shot totals 12-3 [example] and leading 2-0 and in full control, then the 2nd period starts and this happened in both Calgary and Edmonton recent games where the opposition runs up the shots out-shooting our Leafs 15-5 and dominating in Leafs zone and closing the score. Then Leafs need to find a way in the 3rd to change that and its been their PP that has often come through that results in a 1 goal win in the end. This is where I agree again with you in that this positive outcome is more luck then control as PP are not guaranteed in games, and do run hot and cold at times. I might say the odds are almost 50/50 that Leafs come out on the wrong end a 1 goal final score when games play like this as it sometimes a timely goalie save that makes it the final outcome good or bad.

Not sure how much this cause and effect is player personnel related overall, but having more players like Hyman that give 100% effort at all times and are reliable defensively and work hard offensively tends to give one more peace as a fan knowing that Leafs are in more control of their own destiny and at least playing the opposition at par at 5v5.

Yep, I've noticed similar things. Is this a case of the other coach adjusting to the way the Leafs are playing? Is it a case of our coach taking his foot off the throttle? Is it a case of our players getting complacent? A case of our players not having the experience or killer instinct to put the other team away?

 

[Bluelines]

Though if you've got to think back nearly 20 years for the best example of what you ideally would like to see, seems as if the Leafs aren't uniquely different than their main peer competitors.

As per your earlier questions of is it team control vs indivual skill - its likely both. Obviously the high skilled guys have the ability to make things happen on their own, and so they do (hence why they make those salaries) but theres definitely been a decent amount of systems focused improvements. I feel way more comfortable with the team protecting the lead now than I have in thr last few seasons.

Sometimes things have looked sloppy, but that's seemingly to be expected with so many new faces on the team and no proper preseason to iron out the wrinkles

I would agree with that. It was so fusterating to watch those Devils play, they would sit back, sit back, sit back and then you make one mistake and you are behind. You as a fan knew what they were doing, the Leafs knew what they were doing and seemingly you couldn't fall into their trap.

When you hear the Leafs brass talk their goal is to be that sort of team that is year in year out that good, able to control the game, able to stifle the opposing team, able to frustrate them into playing your game.