GDT: We are not playing the Blackhawks at hockey today. We are playing the Lightning.

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Who are the guys exceeding expectations?

Nino, Trochek, Jordo

Of those, the only one who really is playing above his head is Jordo. The other 2 had some absolutely miserable puck luck that make them look a lot worse than the advanced stats say they were. Nino and Trochek were expected to see their scoring ability regress to the mean, improving their numbers. Seeing it happen this year shouldn't be a surprise.

Not as much as Jordan, but Nino and Trocheck most certainly playing well above their heads. I agree that we should expect some improvement vs. last year for the reasons you stated, but right now the improvement is way above their norms.

Nino's career highs are 25G, 53P. He's on pace for 46G, 62 points.
Trocheck's career high is 31G, 75P, but other than that one season, he's been a 50 point player. He's on pace for 49G, 87 points.

Like you said, there may be a regression to the mean which would mean they would cool off (thus MinJaBen's concern).

I'd actually say the thing that stands out to me right now is that we still have a bunch of guys who arguably need to step it up a little bit. Aho, Svech, Turbo, Dougie, Slavin, Pesce... I'm not sure any of them are really playing at the level they expect of themselves this year. Given what you'd expect of them, I think we still have one or two more gears to attain before we reach out final form with this roster.

Also, Mrazek is still only 1 game back of the league lead in shutouts this year, and he has only played like 4 games. It certainly looked like he was taking that next step as a starter before he got hurt.

McGinn is playing above his head right now. He's on pace for 36G, 56P / 82 games.

Re: Aho, Svech, Turbo, Dougie, Pesce, Slavin. Just looking at scoring rates for 82G.

Aho is on pace for 31G, 82P. That's not really below expectations.
Svech is on pace for 36G, 82P. That's not really below expectations.
Dougie is on pace for 5G, 51P. The goals are below expectations, but the points aren't. Last year he was on fire, but that's not who he's been throughout his career.
Pesce is on pace for 5G, 41P and has been excellent defensively. That's for sure not below expectations.
Slavin is on pace for 6G, 32P which is pretty much right where you'd expect him to be. Other than the handful games post covid where he wasn't good, has been pretty good.
Teravainin in on pace for 14G, 62 points which is below expectations, but he's been the most affected by Covid so far.

I realize there is more to the game than just scoring, but in terms of production, I'd say other than Dougie's goals and TT's production overall, the guys are within the expected range.

EDIT: It should also be noted that in a couple of games, Rod kind of shuts top guys down a bit to keep them fresh. He mentioned it the other day with Aho and Svech on the radio.

 

[chaz4hockey]

^^^
I believe we haven't seen the best yet from Pesce (defensively), Slavin (defensively) and Hamilton (offensively).

However, remaining cast of Dmen have surprised me with their high quality play (Skjei aside who had a series of gaffes earlier in the season).

With Bean now in the lineup & playing well, Canes D is arguably the best in the league (yes, even better than the Bolts)

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Skjei sit tomorrow?

Slavin-Hamilton
Gardiner-Pesce
Bean-Fluery

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

^^^
I believe we haven't seen the best yet from Pesce (defensively)

Disagree

Slavin (defensively)

Agree. Pimarily post covid until last night.

and Hamilton (offensively).

Agree. Goal scoring specifically.

However, remaining cast of Dmen have surprised me with their high quality play (Skjei aside who had a series of gaffes earlier in the season).

With Bean now in the lineup & playing well, Canes D is arguably the best in the league (yes, even better than the Bolts)

Agree.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I would like to see Lorentz on the line with Aho and Turbo (when he returns)

He is physical, drives the net, and has more offensive acumen than McGinn.

 

[geehaad]

Lorentz ... has more offensive acumen than McGinn.

Not saying you're wrong, but there is zero evidence to back this up...and there's a good bit of evidence that runs counter to this argument.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Not saying you're wrong, but there is zero evidence to back this up...and there's a good bit of evidence that runs counter to this argument.

Based on what I’ve seen on the ice from him on placement, passing etc. McGinn has benefited greatly with playing with 2 first liners. I think Lorentz would be better. JMO. It’s probably wrong. I have a feeling McGinn is our version of Kassian.

there is also very little chance of it happening. Rod wants guys he trusts in high leverage spots. Lorentz won’t be there this season.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I would like to see Lorentz on the line with Aho and Turbo (when he returns)

He is physical, drives the net, and has more offensive acumen than McGinn.

I don’t think any of those things are true

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Based on what I’ve seen on the ice from him on placement, passing etc. McGinn has benefited greatly with playing with 2 first liners. I think Lorentz would be better. JMO. It’s probably wrong. I have a feeling McGinn is our version of Kassian.

there is also very little chance of it happening. Rod wants guys he trusts in high leverage spots. Lorentz won’t be there this season.

And Brindy's trust in McGinn is clearly paying off, so it's certainly not for no reason.

 

[AD Skinner]

I think the first line mcginn era will eventually end but at this point its not broken. No reason to try fixing it

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I don’t think any of those things are true

granted it is a limited sample size, Lorentz has the same hits per game as McGinn with 4 less minutes a game. Lorentz carries the puck really well. Also would be an addition in the FO circle for the line.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Reports of my death were... almost true. BUT I LIVED.

NOTHING MOTIVATES VENGEANCE LIKE FIGHTING A TERRIBLE HANGOVER.

 

[spockBokk]

I think McGinn does just fine on the first line. Although, I think it’s obvious that Svechnikov needs to play with Aho. When Teravainen is healthy again, the question will be whether to play him with Aho and Svechnikov or with Staal and Foegele/Fast.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I've been big on the replace McGinn going forward with someone cheaper but that doesn't need to happen right now. When he (most likely) inevitably slows to a more normal scoring pace, sure, throw whoever the hell you want on the top lines as they did early in the season trying to find who's hot. Of course, the expected drop in scoring by McGinn and others is why I think we should bolster the lineup with a better scorer by the deadline.

 

[Drivebytrucker]

I've been big on the replace McGinn going forward with someone cheaper but that doesn't need to happen right now. When he (most likely) inevitably slows to a more normal scoring pace, sure, throw whoever the hell you want on the top lines as they did early in the season trying to find who's hot. Of course, the expected drop in scoring by McGinn and others is why I think we should bolster the lineup with a better scorer by the deadline.

For the energy McGinn brings, his ability to play up and down the lineup, penalty killing and physical play,. It's hard to argue he's overpaid.

I think he's a integral to the team as long as he continues to work hard .

RBA seems to love him too

 

[chaz4hockey]

A little team commentary beside players: I watch a lot of hockey via Directv & the NHL App.

(Beyond my rooting interest) the Canes have been one of three teams really enjoyable to watch (Leafs, Oilers are the other two) this season.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I would like to see Lorentz on the line with Aho and Turbo (when he returns)

He is physical, drives the net, and has more offensive acumen than McGinn.

More edge lord nonsense.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

More edge lord nonsense.

living rent free, I see

 

[A Star is Burns]

For the energy McGinn brings, his ability to play up and down the lineup, penalty killing and physical play,. It's hard to argue he's overpaid.

I think he's a integral to the team as long as he continues to work hard .

RBA seems to love him too

Do I think he's overpaid in general, no. Do I think he might be as the team needs to keep guys going forward for us, yes. He also seems like a guy that could get a Clarkson stupid contract if a team isn't careful (not likely that bad, but more than he should).

 

[the halleJOKEL]

I would like to see Lorentz on the line with Aho and Turbo (when he returns)

He is physical, drives the net, and has more offensive acumen than McGinn.

if he has more offensive acumen than mcginn, why has brock outscored him at every level?

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

if he has more offensive acumen than mcginn, why has brock outscored him at every level?

Lorentz could be anything even Brock McGinn

 

[Daeavorn]

Lorentz could be anything even Brock McGinn

Can he be a cheaper Brock McGinn? Because I'm not sure I wanna pay Brock more than the 2m he's making right now.

 

[Canes]

The biggest thing with McGinn this year is that he's showing more patience and finishing ability. When he gets the puck he just doesn't defer to a linemate right away or dump the puck in. He'll carry or hold the puck until there is a more advantageous play to be made. Something I hope Foegele will learn soon.

Also, I really like Lorentz too but he's more of a Martinook replacement at this point.

 

[NotOpie]

Can he be a cheaper Brock McGinn? Because I'm not sure I wanna pay Brock more than the 2m he's making right now.

I used to think that Brock would be the odd man out next season as we'll need to replace somebody w/near ELC money should Svech and Dougie get re-signed. Now, I'm not so sure that he doesn't settle into a 30-40 point role (although he's no Chris Terry.....some would say thank god). If that's the case, especially towards the upper end of that scale, then he'll deserve and make more....that may price him out of the local market....or his versatility may push us to keep him and jettison others (cough, cough, Foegele, Martinook, cough, cough....).

I've messed around a bit with trying to put a salary structure together for next season, estimating as best I could, but I really don't see much of a way that we can pay all of Foegs, Marty, and Brock each in excess of $2 million....if Dougie is still in the mix.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I'm not sure I see that much production for Brock. He's never going to have this shooting percentage on a regular basis. I'd honestly still keep Foegele before Brock and Marty all things equal, but would be prepared to replace all three with cheaper options if needed to keep better players.