WCSF: BOA! Oilers vs. Flames | Oilers lead 3-1

[Cup or Bust]

I am not sure if the Oilers will be able to win game 4 but I hope for a good effort. Don't let Calgary back in the series by letting up and just giving the Flames the game on a silver platter. Unfortunately the Oiler have been terrible at times where they have a chance to take advantage of a good situation. Hopefully the building and that energy pushes them to play a hard game.

 

[snag]

Up

I know right?

I mean they *should be winning* according to my model.

Anyone actually watching this series knows that:
1) Oilers embarrassed out of the building and only McDrai allowed them to put a late scare on Calgary
2) Flames blew a commanding early lead because of a complete inability to defend McDrai - the pressure was sustained from about 10 minutes in
3) Oilers played a dominant game that the Flames were not a part of

When I see Tkachuk and Gaudreau zipping in their "high danger" chances from the outer edge of the slot with no traffic in front...

And then I see Kane in all alone against Markstrom 3 times in a single period. And Drai on two breakaways this series, and receiving a couple of tap in passes. And Hyman scoring on breakaways as well as tic-tac-toes.

I know then that advanced stats are not telling me the full story.

Here is why I don't buy into advanced stats to heavily....

Game 2:

Game 3:

Unless their model got broke somewhere, what the f*** was with Game 2?

 

[DJJones]

Something all Albertans are thinking today.

haha ya guess that goes for both teams.

Seeing all the amateur defensive mistakes just crushed me last game. Andersson and Kylington were brutal.

 

[TheNumber4]

I know right?

I mean they *should be winning* according to my model.

Anyone actually watching this series knows that:
1) Oilers embarrassed out of the building and only McDrai allowed them to put a late scare on Calgary
2) Flames blew a commanding early lead because of a complete inability to defend McDrai - the pressure was sustained from about 10 minutes in
3) Oilers played a dominant game that the Flames were not a part of

When I see Tkachuk and Gaudreau zipping in their "high danger" chances from the outer edge of the slot with no traffic in front...

And then I see Kane in all alone against Markstrom 3 times in a single period. And Drai on two breakaways this series, and receiving a couple of tap in passes. And Hyman scoring on breakaways as well as tic-tac-toes.

I know then that advanced stats are not telling me the full story.

Exactly. And those Kane chances are ranked essentially the same those Johnny-Tkachuk chances to generate these xGF outputs. In statistics there’s the old adage of garbage in - garbage out. That’s garbage data in will lead to garbage stats out. And yet xGF is treated way too often as some sort of indicator of the exact story of a single game when yet another old adage of statistics gets ignored, which is small sample size limitation.

 

[benedictTavares]

flames flaming out

 

[snipes]

Oilers take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Need to stay focused on game 5 and close it out.

 

[Bounces R Way]

I'm not even mad,

just enraged.

 

[Mr Kot]

Holy shit, luckily they rebounded from that smith gaf,.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Probably the sloppiest Win for the Oilers so far. But I thought they played well defensively for the most part. Calgary didn’t have crazy dangerous chances.

 

[Ray Mercer]

Calgary has just looked terrible this series. Gaudreau and Tkachuk are ghosts. The Oilers have all the elite talent.

 

[Kranix]

Going to CP permanently. Won't be back here. Bye

 

[Akrapovince]

Play the damn song

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Huge win, finish them in Calgary.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Did Calgary even generate a decent scoring chance in the 3rd? That was a pretty pathetic period by a team that needed to win

 

[Dust]

I feel like Calgary takes the series if they managed to pull off the comeback after that gaffe. Still far from over, but that was some roller coaster of a 3rd.

 

[AMDZen]

I'll be honest I did not see this happening

Congrats to Oilers fans, one win away

 

[snipes]

Going to CP permanently. Won't be back here. Bye

CalgaryPuck should be a good read tonight. Maybe some sanity will finally come through. Unlikely though.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

What a shitshow. Can't see either team giving Colorado a decent series.

 

[Jesus Take the Wheel]

Must be terrible as Calgary fans knowing the best roster your franchise is going to have in years is currently getting owned by the provincial rival

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

What a shitshow. Can't see either team giving Colorado a decent series.

oilers play well against the Avs

 

[Kennedys]

Would be nice if McDavid beat Gretzky points record and Kane beat Kurri goals record in a playoffs run. I know we're still far from it but it would be nice

 

[Frosty415]

McMVP.

One player deserves the HART.. and it's not Matthews.

 

[snag]

Must be terrible as Calgary fans knowing the best roster your franchise is going to have in years is currently getting owned by the provincial rival

ROFL...that is exactly what I was terrified of.

Feeling much better about it now.

 

[Half Clapper]

Colorado is going to smoke the winner of this series.

 

[syz]

Did Calgary even generate a decent scoring chance in the 3rd? That was a pretty pathetic period by a team that needed to win

Not really. Was the first good period the Oilers had played tonight until Smith coughed one up.

Anyways shout out to Zadorov's taunting and celly after their fluke goal. As usual nothing but ego on that roster.